oriental andrew

December 1st, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^

FSU loses and I think OSU is in the catbird seat.

The only way ohio state makes it into the CFP is chaos. 

  • I'm assuming Michigan wins - UM losing by far the most unlikely scenario. But osu wants Michigan to lose for reasons but also because they might could possibly jump 12-1 Michigan (not really, but insert Dumb and Dumber meme here). 
  • ohio state really wants Washington to win, as 12-1 UW could potentially end up ahead of 11-1 osu in the rankings. 
  • UGA has to win which eliminates Bama b/c UGA losing sees Alabama jumping ohio state and 12-1 UGA probably stays ahead of 11-1 ohio st. 

That's 3 slots set and osu would be looking at that 4th slot. 

  • Texas has to lose. If UT wins, a 12-1 conference champ definitely jumps ohio state in the rankings and likely ends up in the CFP. 

In summary, if I'm a buckeye, I need Washington to win, UGA to win, Texas to lose, and FSU to lose. Michigan losing still probably has them ahead of the buckeyes, but I'm sure they'd just love to see it anyway. 

ESNY

December 1st, 2023 at 4:39 PM ^

It would have to be utter chaos for OSU to get in. The following individual game scenarios likely trump OSU

  • Michigan win
  • Georgia win
  • FSU win
  • Texas win
  • Washington win
  • Oregon win
  • Washington close loss
  • Alabama win
  • Georgia loss
  • Michigan close loss

So basically SEC/PAC 12 get at least 2 spots over OSU and M might also get preference over OSU if Texas/FSU both loss

If Georgia wins and all of FSU/Texas/Oregon/Michigan lose, I guess there is a possibility, but OSU isn't passing Texas if they win, nor either Bama/Georgia if Bama wins

AWAS

December 1st, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^

I think a 1 loss Washington or a 1 loss Georgia get in over a one loss team that spent the weekend on the couch. 

That logic doesn't apply to FSU because of the QB issue, and because their one loss would be a team demonstrably worse than Alabama or Oregon.

SF Wolverine

December 1st, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^

Still very hard to leave out an undefeated conference champ.  Committee might do so if Bama beats Georgia and Texas/Washington/UM win to avoid shutting out the SEC.

Dennis

December 1st, 2023 at 3:44 PM ^

Might be an unpopular opinion but barring an undefeated team from the playoff in favor of teams who have losses is actually insane. 

Teams number one objective is to win games. FSU can't control the composition of talented teams on their schedule in a given year, but Texas, Bama, and Oregon could have won their games.

lilpenny1316

December 1st, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^

I also think it's fair to say that the reason FSU is undefeated broke his leg two weeks ago...while they were down TWO SCORES TO A 3-7FCS TEAM IN THE SECOND QUARTER. FSU's viability in the CFP is totally fair to question without Travis. If Bama beats UGA and there's chalk elsewhere, they will be left out.

RobM_24

December 1st, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I have no problem playing a team that we know, with no doubt, that we can beat without needing luck or playing outside our usual style of offense and defense. I'd rather play Ohio State than find out whether or not we can stop Bo Nix from going crazy on us -- and having to adapt our defense on the fly. We prepared all season for OSU, not Oregon. That said, I'd obviously rather play FSU ahead of anyone else. 

Logan88

December 1st, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^

For me it is NOT about being concerned about playing OSU in the playoffs as I am pretty confident UM can beat OSU (the game in AA this past weekend was only as close as it was because no Harbaugh, no Zinter and no Will Johnson), it is simply about OSU making the playoffs at all. Making the playoffs gives your program some extra "juice" particularly in recruiting and I do NOT want OSU to get even more exposure.

Clarence Beeks

December 1st, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^

FSU will be fine with Glenn, if that’s how it goes. If he plays, you can expect a run-heavy approach and a lot of ground and pound (which is actually FSU’s bread and butter) and he is a REAL run threat (which Rodemaker is not).

NotAMichiganSpy

December 1st, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^

IMO injuries should have zero impact on rankings as long as FSU wins.

Should the committee have treated Michigan differently when Blake went down? Should Zinters injury have an impact on our ranking?