Does Purdue have a chance against MSU?
I assumed no, but Purdue obviously has the win over Iowa and they just beat Nebraska too. I know less about them schematically, but if they can win that changes a lot, especially if OSU beats MSU (as one would expect). At that point, the MSU loss is irrelevant (at least to final standings) as we end up in the same position as before: have to beat OSU to win the Big Ten East.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^
Is MSU ranked #2?
November 1st, 2021 at 9:32 PM ^
MSU is definitely #2
November 1st, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
I'd say the odds that one of the two teams wins the game is about 100%, so in that case Purdue looks like they have a decent shot.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
Ummm yes, Purdue has a decent passing game and MSU's pass defense sucks. It's at Purdue, they have a history of upsetting teams under Brohm and it could be a classic letdown type game after a big win for Sparty. Plenty of reason to think they could spring an upset.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
Absolutely. Purdue should be able to throw the ball against State and Purdue has a solid defense. This is a toss up game.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:44 PM ^
I also like Purdie's chances. If they can really slow down Walker as Indiana and Nebraska did and can use their 3QBs the way they did against Iowa, Purdue can pull off the upset.
November 1st, 2021 at 6:20 PM ^
Strongly agree for the reasons you note, the letdown factor, and it's college football.
November 1st, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Vegas only has them as a 3 point underdog
November 1st, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^
Yes. Next question.
Just kidding. I do think this has the potential of a letdown game for MSU. They're coming off a huge win, emotional, hard-fought, and I imagine they have a couple injuries (Nailor, for example). Purdue isn't a pushover. They're better than Indiana and Nebraska, two teams MSU struggled with. This one is on the road. If Purdue can catch them off their game, they can definitely win this one.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:50 PM ^
Purdue has such great medical facilities that I doubt injuries will be a problem for State.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
This is a big letdown game for MSU. If Purdue can key on the RB and make him mortal (teams have done this -- sadly, not UM) they can jump to a lead and win, sure.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
I have no intention of ever rewatching that debacle but I felt like we generally did a good job on Walker when they didn't tempo us (yes, I know, "aside from that how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln").
He had one bounce where Ojabo lost contain but for the most part, it seemed like all the big runs came from tempo. That's what makes it more frustrating, and annoying to see everyone say "OMG HE GOT 5 TD'S" like the bulk of it wasn't UM just not being set because of tempo.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^
I personally believe this will be a tough out for MSU. They are coming off an emotional high and have prepared for nothing other than MIchigan for two weeks. I don't believe Brohm will let his team be outcoached defensively like McDonald was. Other teams have provided the road map for bottling up Walker and McDonald did a piss poor job of learning from them. He has also regularly given MSU fits with his passing attack. Not to mention that it looks like Sparty will be without one of their best receivers. Anybody that thinks they will waltz into West Lafayette and not be in for a tough game is fooling themselves.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
It's college, Everyone has a chance every week.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
Totally. New Mexico State has a real chance at Alabama in two weeks.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:49 PM ^
Ah yes, New Mexico State....the D-1 Presbyterian. I had nearly forgotten about them, perhaps justly.
November 1st, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^
You’re going to look foolish went they beat bama
November 1st, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
I'll submit my opinion in terms of what I think the greater meaning of this question is getting at (in a literal sense, every team in every game, every week has a chance to win their matchup):
Yes, I think Purdue can still beat MSU with both teams playing within the "bell curve" of their typical performances. Meaning MSU would not have to play exceptionally terrible, or Purdue would have to play exceptionally well for Purdue to come out on top. Purdue has a very solid passing game, and their defense is actually pretty good - not world beaters, but they're no slouch either.
I do think MSU should be favored, and Purdue will have to play well, but not at a level we haven't seen them be capable of. If Purdue wins the turnover battle and effectively attacks MSU's pass defense this game will be very close and Purdue should have a realistic shot at winning.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
"Bell curve" ha. Pun intended? David Bell should (and needs to) go off in this game. If he does, you're damn right Purdue has a chance.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^
Boiler up
November 1st, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^
don't sleep on purdue in this game. they're lousy, and sparty is, all due respect, very good, but i would not be even a little surprised if purdue won.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^
Purdue is 5-3. Hardly lousy.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:02 PM ^
I wouldn't say Purdue is lousy. Northwestern is lousy, Illinois is lousy. Purdue is markedly better than both of those teams. I would probably put them in the same category as Nebraska: they have significant flaws, but they have the capacity to be explosive and have a punchers chance against anyone in the B1G (debatable whether or not Ohio State should be included in that assertion).
November 1st, 2021 at 3:13 PM ^
whoa, fair enough...in all honesty, i didn't even look at them, and since they're not on the schedule i wasn't really paying attention to them, like at ALL. i was totally talking out of my backside.
<walks away, ashamed>
<returns>
but wait, now i like purdue's chances even more!
November 1st, 2021 at 3:55 PM ^
Purdue has a markedly higher ceiling than Illinois and Northwestern but it's hard to definitively say they're markedly better. They played Illinois in W Lafayette and only won 13-9. Did better in that situation than Penn State though!
November 1st, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^
I think Purdue definitely has a chance. The Vegas line opened at MSU -2.5. Thats damn low for a top 5 team on the road at Purdue. Purdue is capable and their coaching staff knows how to win a game, unlike Nebraska, IU and probably us. Harbaugh's tenure as soon as he's gets punched back he stumbles, Everytime. I think Purdue will take advantage of that weak secondary. Should be a back and forth battle.
I'm curious why we couldn't stop Walker in that 4th Qtr. I really expected our NFL coordinator to be able to stop 1 guy, hell he practiced against Lamar Jackson everyday. Just man that should of been an easy 2 TD win. Just watch Purdue stack the box and hold Walker to 125 yards.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
Well, the spread is MSU -2.5 which is nearly a coin flip. Implies about a 40% chance for Purdue. MSU was awful against IU on the road, and Purdue is better than IU.
There's a chance of a "hangover".
Purdue passing game matches up well against MSU, IMO.
The question will be whether Purdue can stop Walker I think. Dunno, but yes, Purdue has a good chance.
To clarify, MSU losing this doesn't make Saturday irrelevant. It still took away Michigan's margin for error. Had M just closed that out, they could have lost to PSU and still set up The Game for the division. Now they have to win out.
Also, had they won Saturday and beat PSU, they might not have even needed to beat OSU to make the playoff. Just would have needed some things like Cinci losing and Oregon losing. Water under the bridge now obviously.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
If they can throw, then yes.
If MSU isn't gifted 8 replays and 17 points due to high leverage calls, penalties and low probability events, then yes.
MSU just won their Super Bowl and needed the quarter to flip heads 8 times in a row.
Tip of the cap to them, they got all the calls, all the breaks and took advantage of it. They remain a very vulnerable team with obvious flaws and at some point you lose one of these games where you get outgained by 200 yards (they've had a few already)
November 1st, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
Maybe the Big Ten just keeps this official review guy following MSU all season.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^
Well to be fair MSU is damn good at flipping the quarter heads 8 times in a row vs Harbaugh.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:54 PM ^
It is indeed quite frustrating, often infuriating.
The punt 6 and this past weekend were quite brutal.
When OSU smacks us, it's much easier to swallow since they are just better.
2016 OSU sucked because it was a ref screw job + a bunch of self destruction. That was the one year of the Harbaugh era where i believe we were legitimately better than OSU. Sucks.
November 1st, 2021 at 8:08 PM ^
They are like experts a Ddakji and rigged games.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
Flukiest lucky win ever, and by ever I mean since the last one
November 1st, 2021 at 10:17 PM ^
MSU got lucky for the 10th time in 14 years! Its uncanny!
November 2nd, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^
MSU just won their Super Bowl and needed the quarter to flip heads 8 times in a row.
Conspiracy theorists love the fact that BIG Commish Kevin Warren's son plays for MSU.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
Current line is MSU -3
November 1st, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
My fandom says that MSU blasts Purdue and somehow their running back wins the Heisman after winning the Big Ten title. I have to work with and live by the worst fanbase on the planet that will drive me to deep dark anger.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:04 PM ^
ya honestly it feels like some divine intervention has endured they will win no matter what.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
I feel your pain. I lived in Columbus, Ohio (Dublin) for 25 years (1990 to 2015) and had to endure the worst fanbase ever
November 1st, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Purdue is playing to win the West. They need this game and have the players to do so.
Bell is a game breaker at WR and their QB O’Connell runs a good offense with accurate intermediate throws which will challenge MSU.
Karlftis is a beast on D.
In the end it would not surprise to see some weird ass MSU deal with the devil happen.
November 1st, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Depends...
Is Rondale Moore healthy and ready to go?
November 1st, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
Nailor and Panasuik left the UM game with injuries. Two significant injuries for MSU.
if they can control Walker Purdue stands a good chance at winning. Thorne’s recent turnover issues are a concern for MSU.
November 1st, 2021 at 10:00 PM ^
Good points. Even Nebraska did a significantly better job on Walker than us. It’s possible that they overlook Purdue enough, but they could also be invigorated by beating us and steamroll them. I’ll be watching.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
Classic letdown game on the heels of a wildly emotional and important game the week prior. I'd bet on Purdue.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
that they had to pull out all the stops to come back.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:02 PM ^
MSU's secondary + David Bell is the best chance they have.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:04 PM ^
Anybody has a chance to beat MSU.
Contain Walker and there isn't much left...
November 1st, 2021 at 3:25 PM ^
Yep, MSU is a one trick pony, Take away Walker and it's over
November 1st, 2021 at 6:51 PM ^
Yeah, because Thorne to Reed isn't one of the more dangerous passing combinations in the B1G.
November 1st, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
Fair point but it is expected for defenses to give up 24-28 points a game these days so it is up to the offense to contribute.