Deduce new 8 game schedule
If the B1G wants to use the old 10-game schedule as a template for making the new 8 game schedule, I think we can deduce what UM's new 8 game schedule will be. First, here is the old 10 game schedule from August:
- Sept. 5: vs. Purdue
- Sept. 12: at Minnesota
- Sept. 19: vs. Penn State
- Sept. 26: at Rutgers
- Oct. 3: vs. Michigan State
- Oct. 10: Bye
- Oct. 17: at Indiana
- Oct. 24: at Ohio State
- Oct. 31: vs. Wisconsin
- Nov. 7: vs. Maryland
- Nov. 14: Bye
- Nov. 21: at Northwestern
Since UM is going to an 8 game schedule, with a 9th game against a west-division opponent who finished in the same spot in their division, its perfectly logical that UM will be forced to play all six of the teams in their eastern division....
So, that means UM will play two western division teams. The B1G will want to force each team to play four road games, and four home games. The Wisconsin game is a "locked in" west division game. According to B1G rules, that game must happen if UM plays in 2020. So, the two games that must be eliminated will come from the following 3 possibilities: home vs Purdue, at Minnesota, at Northwestern. Using deduction, and if the B1G is using the ten game schedule as their template, that means the Purdue game is gone. Why? Because UM will need 4 road games and 4 home games. If UM ditched at MN and at NW, that would put UM at 5 home games and 3 road games. Not gonna happen.
This means the Purdue game is kaput. Which west team does UM ditch to even the season to 4 home games and 4 road games? Like I wrote, it cant be WI. UM will have to either ditch at MN or at NW. MN game would get better TV ratings than NW (MN is expected to be a better team than NW), so I think its gonna be the NW game that also goes kaput. Given that, here's how UM's schedule could look:
@MN
PSU
@RU
MSU
@IN
@OSU
Wisc
MD
Four home games, four road games. UM plays all the other east teams. Two games versus west teams. UM might ditch the MN game instead of the NW game. Further analysis needed.
September 16th, 2020 at 1:29 PM ^
Funny, I predicted the same schedule on Twitter yesterday that the OP has. Not in any order though.
If the Jug isn’t played for this year it isn’t gonna be until 2023 unless the B1G completely redoes everything.
I love that crossover week for the other 12 B1G teams not in the title game. That’s some good shit. I hope it stays on once we exit Covid era football.
We could actually maybe play some teams more than once every 9 years. We have been to Lincoln ONCE. 2012.
I’d rather play in the title game of course but we have yet to make it.
September 16th, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
While your conclusions of WI/MN seem logical....those would have been my last choices for which games to play. I know we've played some weird games against Purdue and Northwestern, but I'm sick of playing the toughest teams from the west when the only way for Michigan to satisfy expectations is to go undefeated or lose 1-game as long as it isn't OSU.
In a year that is complete chaos - give me the two chaos teams that aren't likely to have winning records instead of the two leading contenders to win that division.
I also want OSU sometime around game #3-4. Give us a couple of weeks to shake off the rust and figure things out, but then let's play them before half the team is hurt, weather becomes a factor, and when there's still time to finish the season on a 4-5 game winning streak to take the sting out of a likely loss.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^
I'd rather play them in a blizzard.
September 16th, 2020 at 3:54 PM ^
In a blizzard at night with the lights broken 60mph winds 6 inches of snow....and we'd still only lose by 20.
September 16th, 2020 at 1:34 PM ^
That's good analysis. I suppose you'll need to look at MN's schedule and see if that makes sense mathematically too with the 4/4 thing and playing all their division opponents.
You'd need a computer algorithm to calculate this to be exact I suppose to see what permutations work for all teams simultaneously. It's like that logic games section on the LSAT. Ugh. Hated that.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
Logic games are the funnest part!
September 16th, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^
https://twitter.com/carmin_jc/status/13062724015299379
#Purdue AD Mike Bobinski said the schedule will come from the original 9-game Big Ten schedule pre-COVID. Would have to drop one game to make it eight
September 16th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
Do you have a link to the 9-game schedule, or could you please post it here? Then we can deduce from the "9 game schedule" who UM will eliminate to get to 4 home games + 4 road games.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
Based on that I DEDUCE they drop the home game against Purdue. Hopefully they move the OSU game up to the middle of the season like it was going to be in the 10 game schedule. As some have said, I like the idea of playing them BEFORE half the team is hurt.
edit: I capitalized DEDUCE for funzies/emphasis.
September 16th, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^
Half the team has opted out already. I think I want all of the new QBs, WRs, OL and DBs to get as much experience as possible before they get clobbered.
September 16th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
Brown Jug; they'll keep Minnesota
September 16th, 2020 at 1:43 PM ^
Good point. Add that as another reason they will keep @MN, and ditch @NW.
September 16th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^
Having a shared water receptacle being played for this year takes on some irony no?
September 16th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^
Just put the OSU game in the middle of the season, please. Far enough out to where the team can get its legs under it, but not at the end of the year where an all-but-certain loss destroys any momentum you might be able to take into the offseason.
I'd rather have them show up around game 4 or game 5, take my lumps, and then finish strong in the last 3-4 games to take some momentum into the 2021 season.
September 16th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^
I'm curious on your source for Big Ten rules saying the Wisconsin game is locked in. It's true that that has been Michigan's set crossover for this six year cycle, but I doubt it's completely locked in given how everything is thrown off this year. If I were Michigan I would be fighting to keep Purdue and ditch Wisconsin. It would be kind of ridiculous for Michigan's two crossover games to be the teams that finished first and second in the west last year.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
Well, we'll see what Kevin Warren thinks of Michigan very soon. If the pointy haired boss was still in his Chicago power seat, he'd make sure Michigan gets UW and MN while OSU gets PU and Ill.
September 16th, 2020 at 10:00 PM ^
Because of their rivalry, Purdue will likely play at Indiana for their crossover "away" game this year. So no trip to Ann Arbor.
September 16th, 2020 at 1:57 PM ^
Why would OSU not be the last regular season game? :mad:
September 16th, 2020 at 2:02 PM ^
Sorry. I should have added that I was not analyzing the order of their schedule, simply whom UM would play. No idea when UM would play The Great Evil.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
I'm usually one to resist change, but the way things have gone over the last 20 years or so, I wouldn't be mad if we played them in the first game.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^
Would rather they play the Saturday before Thanksgiving and be done with it so we have several weeks to wash the bad taste out.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:50 PM ^
Because they announced months ago that it wasn't going to be?
September 16th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
Here is UM's original "9 B1G games" schedule:
vs. Wisconsin
vs. Penn State
@ Michigan State
@ Minnesota
vs. Purdue
vs. Maryland
@ Rutgers
vs. Indiana
@ Ohio State
If this is the schedule template the B1G uses, the B1G wants to keep every team at 4 home games, 4 road games, and play all 6 of their division opponents, the only team that can be eliminated would be Purdue. Ditching any other game would either cause UM to play 5 home games, 5 road games, or not play every team in their division.
So if the B1G uses the older 9 game schedule, here is what it could look like:
vs. Wisconsin
vs. Penn State
@ Michigan State
@ Minnesota
vs. Maryland
@ Rutgers
vs. Indiana
@ Ohio State
September 16th, 2020 at 2:40 PM ^
So I know it would unbalance home and away but I thought MSU was supposed to flip to a home game no matter what.
September 16th, 2020 at 3:06 PM ^
No I'm pretty sure they only fixed that in the updated 10 game schedule before the season was cancelled.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
The OP gives us a lot better shot at winning the last regular season game....for the first time in quite a while
September 16th, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
I'm sick of Wisconsin but I would be stoked for the Jug. One of the best trophy games, and against a team that isn't at all hateable. Just all around good fun.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
I like PJ and think he's a hell of a coach..... 
September 16th, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^
Elementary, my dear GreyMarch. Oh, in this sitch, you're Holmes, I'm Watson. In that case, How ever did you deduce it, GreyMarch?
September 16th, 2020 at 2:37 PM ^
Can we please just play OSU either the first or second week to either stun them in a sloppy 1st game back slobberfest or get the loss over with to temper our expectations for the season.
The one thing that has been consistent, at least in terms of the college football games and the NBA games that have been played during quarantine, is that the better teams have not been that stellar.
See: Milwaukee Bucks, LA Clippers, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Kansas.
September 16th, 2020 at 3:59 PM ^
Maybe KSU and ISU just aren't that good and is Kansas losing to anybody really surprising.
September 16th, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
I mean the talent differential between KSU and ISU vs their opponents is probably bigger than the talent differential between UM and OSU. Soooo maybe there's a chance!
Probably not.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^
The crazy thing about all of this is the fact that the state of Illinois is still restricting any football practice and the news today indicated that they may add Wisconsin to the list of states that require you to quarantine based on recent infection rates there. Similar situation to what the Pac-12 is dealing with (OR, CA).
Now, this is where the rapid testing comes in - who cares if the Wisconsin people are acting like they live in Florida - test everyone before the game and the people who are healthy get to play. We know they grow LBs and OLs on a farm somewhere so it shouldn't matter to their depth chart.
September 16th, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
There’s usually sports teams exceptions built into those (amongst other exceptions)
September 16th, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^
Whether the B1G uses the original 9-game B1G schedule, or the 10 game B1G schedule from August, one thing has become abundantly clear.....the Purdue game is kaput. Ditching Purdue is the guaranteed answer to one of the variables from the 9-game schedule algorithm or the 10-game schedule algorithm.
September 16th, 2020 at 3:07 PM ^
This looks about right - same opponents less Purdue as the original nine game slate / same order and home or away as the ten game slate. OSU on the "traditional" Saturday after TG. Probably 3-4 losses in that mix.
Oct. 24: at Minnesota
Oct 31: vs. Penn State
Nov 7: at Rutgers
Nov 14: vs. Michigan State
Nov 21: at Indiana
Nov 28: at Ohio State
Dec 5: vs. Wisconsin
Dec 12: vs. Maryland
September 16th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
one quirky thing with Northwestern:
Cook County, which includes Evanston, currently has quarantine restrictions on visitors from high incidence states. Right now, that list includes Iowa and Nebraska, but not Michigan, and Indiana and Wisconsin have been on the threshold of restrictions. NW is also getting flack for bringing students back only to quickly go remote.
There are few teeth to the restrictions, but I'd guess that no one in scheduling wants to create a conflict if not necessary.
Wonder if there'd be a preference there to try to schedule Michigan or teams that could get there and back same day (Wisconsin, Illinois?)
September 16th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
double post. grrr.
September 16th, 2020 at 3:36 PM ^
I prefer to play the saggy state early however, December snow with no crowd, injuries or covid issues would make the game interesting. And if the season ends early Oh Well.
We need some time for the offense to jell. Gattis offense needs to take a huge jump in fluidity this season. Hopefully we get some kind of a run game early with Warriners troops.
September 16th, 2020 at 9:56 PM ^
Best guess at the crossover games (I think the two toughest schedules are NEB & MIC):
ILL: OSU, Rtg
IND: PUR, Wis
IWA: MSU, Psu
MRY: MIN, Nwr
MIC: WIS, Min
MSU: NWR, Iwa
MIN: MIC, Mry
NEB: PSU, Osu
NWR: MRY, Msu
OSU: NEB, Ill
PSU: IWA, Neb
PUR: RTG, Ind
RTG: ILL, Pur
WIS: IND, Mic
September 16th, 2020 at 10:19 PM ^
The 10 game schedules for the entire conference are already set. The easy thing to do would be to drop the first 2 games or last 2 games or first and last game from each teams schedule. Bye weeks need not apply.
September 17th, 2020 at 12:00 AM ^
Take out Wisconsin and I’m fine with this schedule.
September 17th, 2020 at 10:22 PM ^
Go Blue