Blue in Paradise

November 28th, 2017 at 2:02 PM ^

In 2019, it would be 7-5

 

But not relevant anyway because 2018 is the year we become a perennial top 10 power.  And I don't want to hear "how many times have we heard that" because I have never thought that in the past.

I thought we had a chance to be a CFP contender in 2016 (we literally missed by an inch) but any thinking person knew that 2017 was going to be a slog with the way the recruiting classes played out in 2013-2015.

EGD

November 28th, 2017 at 3:28 PM ^

No, it's really not true that Michigan fans have been saying "wait until next year" on a consistent basis, only for the team to not live up to expectations in the following season.

In 2015, people said "wait until next year."  It was Harbaugh's first season as head coach and there were some serious holes in the roster. 

The 2016 team was excellent and missed the CFP by a couple of plays.  Nobody said "wait until next year" after those big end-of-season losses in 2016.  Rather, people said "this was the year--so it really sucks that we lost."  The overall results were a bit disappointing but it's not as though the people saying "wait until next year" in 2015 were wrong.   

In what other seasons were people saying "wait until next year?"  I can't really think of any.  2012 maybe (the year Denard hurt his ulnar nerve)?   

 

uncle leo

November 28th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^

Did I wake up in bizarro world?

This fan base does "wait till next year" or picks some arbitrary year 2-3 years down the road when everything lines up perfectly. Please don't make me go back through years of posts on this board with those comments.

Shit, I can go back a couple days ago when there was a thread and multiple people said 2019 is when everything will be great.

EGD

November 28th, 2017 at 4:29 PM ^

See, I tried to go back through the years myself and that's when I realized that 2015 is really the only reasonably recent season where "wait 'til next year" was a prevailing sentiment.

I do recall one-off posts from time-to-time under the prior regimes where people would do the multiple years out thing that you described, usually based on blind hope and recruiting hype.  Like, after Hoke's big 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes, I remember somebody posting that 2015 was going to be the year because we'd have a senior Derrrick Green, a junior Shane Morris, etc.  And early on in Rich Rod's tenure there were sometimes posts about how M would be playing ninja football once we reached year X.  But I don't think these kinds of posts ever came to represent anything like a consensus viewpoint--certainly nowhere close to the extent that people believed in 2015 that the 2016 team would be really good, or that people believe in 2017 that the 2018 team will be. 

 

 

EGD

November 28th, 2017 at 5:20 PM ^

Yeah, alright.

I suppose a big part of this may have to do with how people form their expectations.  I was at Michigan in the mid 90s, so we would head into every season with a loaded roster and plenty of hope that "this could be our year!"  It just so happened that every year I was at M, we lost four games (which was considered a disastrous season back then).  Then, of course, the '97 championship season happened--which did nothing to dispel the annual "this could be the year" feeling before every Michigan season.  For me, it really wasn't until the catastrophes of 2007 and 2008 that I really started to reevaluate where Michigan stood--and it was probably the collapse at the end of 2009 (where we failed to qualify for a bowl game despite a 5-1 start) that finally caused me to accept the necessity of long-term rebuilding. I think a lot of other people reached that realization at different times.  But as a fan base, we did ultimately have to make a collective shift from "every year could be the year" to "if this latest crop of recruits works out, we could realistically be back in contention by X year..."  And once that shift was made, I don't think we ever reached the point when we all thought M was within a single year of being a national contender again until 2015, with the possible exception of 2012 (and with that team, all illusions were instantly dispelled by Alabama about five minutes into the season opener).  

For someone who's a bit younger, and who never really adopted the whole "any year could be the year" mentality, I can see this working out differently.  It seems like there are setbacks just about every season and the rebuilding phase is interminable, so when somebody says "the pieces should be in place by year X," well, why would you believe that person when you haven't ever seen the pieces fall into place before?   

 

JHumich

November 28th, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^

Actually, ever since Rich Rod, I have thought "we have turned Bo's legacy to crap, and now we will always be crap" until Harbaugh was hired, with the exception of one fairy tale Hoke year.

It is actually reasonable to assess pieces in place, and program dynamics, then extrapolate modest development, and say, "That's gonna be one heckuva team next year."

It doesn't have to be pie in the sky or self-delusional homerism.

MacMarauder

November 28th, 2017 at 3:48 PM ^

My recollection is that during the previous coaching regimes we were always waiting for "the coaches guys" to come into play.  So not a specific year, but an undetermined point in the future when everything would click.  During the RR years we kept waiting for the speedy RR guys to take over, then when we switched to Hoke we were waiting for the Hoke manball players to dominate.  I think this is still happening to some extent with the QB situation- I've heard that next year we will take off because we finally have a Harbaugh recruited/groomed QB.

As for another year that was "the year" I hate to say it but maybe 2007?  Hart, Long and Henne all coming back and being ranked #5 going into the season.  

JHumich

November 28th, 2017 at 10:51 PM ^

2015 Ruddock and even 2016 Wilton were serviceable and constantly improving

Only really crap QB year was this one, and even then BP was in the midst of taking off

No reason to think one or both of those young men won't be great next year

EGD

November 28th, 2017 at 5:00 PM ^

The dynamic in 2007 was totally different.  Not only was M coming off of a season in which they'd gone 11-2 and very nearly made the BCS title game, but they had just played in the Rose Bowl for the third time in four years.  There was every reason to expect Michigan to be in the national title hunt again, because they had generally been in it over the recent history and they still had plenty of talent on the roster.  The feeling was more like "well, 2005 turned out not to be the year (that we'd win a Rose Bowl, national championship, or similar), and 2006 turned out not to be the year, maybe 2007 will be?"  The disappointments of 2005 and 2006 couldn't have been blamed on youth or inexperience or handiicaps from the prior regime; much like the 2016 unit, the team could have achieved better records in those seasons--they just didn't.

This year, the sentiment is more like, "the team was too young and inexperienced to have reasonably expected better this season--but next year the pieces will be in place."  Come to think of it, 2004 is probably the most analagous year I can think of: that was the year Hart and Henne were freshmen and M lost to ND, then won 10 straight, and then lost to OSU.  I do think a lot of people were saying at the end of that season (a heartbreaking loss to Vince Young and Texas in the Rose Bowl) that M ought to be satisfied with 10 wins and would be really good the following year. Obviously 2005 didn't go well, but then Don Brown >>> Ron English.

 

Lakeyale13

November 28th, 2017 at 5:43 PM ^

If, and it's a BIG if, Coach Harbaugh is 0-5 against OSU at the end of year 5 I wouldn't be surprised to see him be on the hot seat during year 6. That doesn't seem unreasonable or implausible. Five years has always been the gold standard as the amount of time given to bring full ownership to a Coach.

taistreetsmyhero

November 28th, 2017 at 4:41 PM ^

With only 1 win against a 3-9 MSU, and 0 wins against OSU, no division titles. If that is any coach other than beloved Harbaugh, he’s on the hot seat according to every fan other than his own mom and dad. I’m not sure what he’s done to deserve this demigod status amongst such a “loud” faction of the fan base.

Reader71

November 28th, 2017 at 5:26 PM ^

Consecutive 10-wIn seasons after 5 years of truly bad football surrounding two decent years will do that to you.

Especially when it’s your alma mater and you have a track record that suggests patience is likely to be rewarded.

People are acting like we’ve been scuffling under Harbaugh. He won 10 games each of his first two years and had a real shot at another 10 wins this year if Speight stays healthy enough to just play mediocre.

taistreetsmyhero

November 28th, 2017 at 5:46 PM ^

is based on another 2 seasons of 8-4 or 9-3, when there are no longer any excuses about the previous tenure's recruiting malpractices. 5 years is longer than Harbaugh ever stayed at one coaching job, so there wouldn't be any track record to suggest more patience would help. If we go 5 years where the best result is 3rd in the Big Ten East, with 1-9 against MSU and OSU, he's got to go.

The point stands that this hypothetical is probably unlikely to happen. But if it does, there is no point in trying to make excuses.

EGD

November 28th, 2017 at 6:53 PM ^

The scenario you describe would kind of be a John Cooper type of thing--the program would be in excellent shape, recruiting well, developing talent, winning lots of games, just coming up short in the big rivalry games and championship opportunities. There is no question that there would be frustration and calls to fire JH if that were to play out. But especially after what we went through from 2007-2014, I would hope the AD would be very, very careful if that were to happen.

raleighwood

November 28th, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^

.....I like it! The group think on MGoBlog is out of control at times.

I like having Jim Harbaugh as the HC. He was the best option in 2014 and he's the best option in 2017. However, it's short sighted to not acknowledge that the results have not been optimal. Michigan had second half (often 4Q) leads in most of the 10 losses over the past three season. It will be critical to close out games in 2018.

RedRum

November 28th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^

You may not like the result, but if we continue to go 8-4 with losses to MSU, PSU, ND and OSU, do you think we are going to have a better candidate? Who do you think is going to clammer to coach at Michigan that is better? Our program was a dumpster file in 2014 and we are now playing every game competitively, save for PSU. 

If you want to argue that JH isn't the best coach in the country or that you are disappointed with the result so far, no problem. To suggest that we have some other option that is going to do this great job is lunacy.

I thought JH would be better against OSU by now. In no way do I think he is close to the hot seat. If we go 7-5 in 2020 with 4 start talent, we can talk. Bottom line: i don't get you point other then to say you wish we had won more games. If that is you point, join the crowd. If you really think we have another coach in the wing that is going to do better, you first don't have any evidence to support that conclusion, and second are ignoring the improvement made thus far.

WorldwideTJRob

November 28th, 2017 at 7:58 PM ^

I’m all aboard the Harbaugh Express, but this comment always kills me...”are we going to find a better candidate ?” Yeah if we search hard enough! Nobody is immune from criticism or being fired for failing to meet expectations. Finishing 3rd in the division or going 8-4 will grow tired after awhile. Look at Tennessee, they went through Dooley & Butch, before possibly landing a top 15 coach in Mike Gundy. Should they had just stuck it out with Butch “because they possibly weren’t going to do better” . This is still one of the premiere jobs in all of college football! You will have top candidates interested, the critical part is selecting the right one. Rich Rod was possibly the hottest coaching prospect in the country before he was hired, just may not have been the right fit(or not given adequate time and support according to others).

RedRum

November 28th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^

I don't think he would. I would trade for Nick Saban if I didn't think the Detroit Freepress would take him down for NCAA violations in his first week on campus. RR was a hot coach whose system had no place in AA. Jumbo wouldn't come here.

Btw, the Big ten east is a good division. Consistently in contention to take the division is doing well. MSU has a great coach. PSU has a great coach. If fan bases continue to dump coaches every three years, expect the big 10 to be like the SEC east.

I didn't say keep JH forever, if he has consistent loosing seasons, he is gone. So far he has a record that many school are envious of.

UM is not the premier job we think it is. Ask Nebraska how quickly that star fades. JH is our best shot at rebuilding our program. So far he has done well.

AA Forever

November 28th, 2017 at 8:18 PM ^

"where, oh where can we find someone better than Harbaugh??" crap?  Ask UCLA.  They just grabbed Chip Kelly, who was a NC caliber coach and went 46-7 in 4 years at Oregon. Texas A&M thinks they have a realistic chance at Jimbo Fisher, another NC-caliber coach.  Harbaugh is not the be-all and end-all of coaching...he just isn't.

bo_lives

November 28th, 2017 at 9:07 PM ^

3 losses at home to MSU (1-4 overall), 3 losses at home to OSU (0-5 overall) and there is a 90% chance they will part ways. Everyone on this blog would agree. He'd have had an entire recruiting class come through his system. Fact is you gotta have a marquee win to get anyone, recruits included, to believe in you. If there were no really hot candidates I could see them extending it another year, but to what end? 0-6 against OSU? 0-7? 0-8? If Michigan doesn't win that game in the next two years, as Harbaugh's recruiting classes mature, what makes you think they will ever win it?

uminks

November 29th, 2017 at 12:53 AM ^

So 8-4 is a possibility but i think the team will be much better next year than this season. I say we are still 2 years away from having a good chance to make the playoffs. But you never know if one of the young QB can get hot and our young WR gel, then our offense could be good to great given our RB. The only question remains the OL.

kevin holt

November 28th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^

Depends. With our schedule we (and many other decent teams) could feasibly lose 5 games. So 7-5 isn't enough for a hot seat discussion even if he'd been coaching here longer. If we lost more than 6 then I can't possibly believe there's no external factors e.g. hurt QBs. If those external factors are MSU-last-offseason-type factors, people would be disgruntled. If those factors are us-this-season-type factors, then fuck off he's fine.

If we lost 6-8 games with no explanation (hell, even "our OL sucks and Newsome wasn't 100%" is an explanation), then maybe; absolutely nothing based PURELY on the win-loss record could result in him getting fired.

Mpfnfu Ford

November 29th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^

A ton of injuries = more allowance for bad record.

 

But I'd say looking at what it took to get FSU fans mad at Jimbo or what had ND fans ready to boot Kelly is pretty much the same here, and that's 4-8. Those guys don't have the good will Harbaugh has for leaving the NFL for his alma, but they did earn a lot of good will. Being a coach who took over a moribund program and got them to national title games (and in Jimbo's case, won the whole dang thing) buys you a lot of good will. 4-8 or worse and people start wondering what the hell is going on.

moetown91

November 28th, 2017 at 3:43 PM ^

if Jim Harbaugh can't win at Michigan....than nobody can.   The bigger question is will JH adapt his style if at some point his type players and scheme can't get us to the CFP--meaning a more spread style of offense (Clemson, Alabama, OSU, FSU, etc....) that recent winners have run.  I felt gutted everytime Haskins/Barrett ran for 10+ yards on Saturday when we had great coverage and plays broke down and they took over with athleticism.  In my miind that was the difference.

 

....just sayin

Go Blue

Wolfman

November 28th, 2017 at 4:01 PM ^

still rely heavily on the power run game I don't think anyone can argue a mobile qb helps and that's true in any offense you run. Straight NFL offenses with drop back passers are more dangerous when youf qb has the ability to avoid trouble. But I think a qb not unlike Jim H. himself would be just fine for our offense. Always nice to see Mcsorley run for 40 yds if you're a PSU fan, but I could live with a qb that can pick up the first own on 3rd and 8 with his feet and then hit a couple of nice passes of 15 to 25 yds to sofen it up for a 7 yd scamper by a RB into the end zone. Hell, I think Bama and FSU both agree.