CC: Per the Podcast....who is your Top 7?
October 27th, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 10:55 PM ^
Why is he here?
Good coach, developed strong, well disciples players, Won more games than he lost!
Why he shouldn't be here?
Didn't develop a coaching staff, i.e 'the next guy'. Didn't believe in the ideology of 'the team the team the team' as he sabotaged the program by encouraging players to transfer, go pro, etc, under-cut the next guy. But, he probably got his way by hiring his boy Hoke... Which worked out well.
October 27th, 2014 at 11:10 PM ^
October 28th, 2014 at 11:06 AM ^
I don't like your comments, but I enjoy your avatar. So conflicted....
October 27th, 2014 at 10:25 PM ^
but it just sucks that really dont see anyone of these top names we are throwing out coming here. Jim seems to want to stick the the NFL and win the Super Bowl, Mullen is either staying at the other MSU or going to Florida. Graham, I would like him but he is probably staying south. Peterson and Gundy seem like lifers. The two current HC I can see us pulling away is Miles because of obvious reasons and Helfrich because of money I guess. Other than that I think maybe taking a chance on a coordinator.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:27 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh
John Harbaugh
Chip Kelly
Les Miles
Dan Mullen
Rich Rodriguez
I can't think of another.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:27 PM ^
1) Jim Harbaugh, HC San Francisco 49ers (John Harbaugh may be right here too)
2) Mark Richt, HC Georgia
3) Gary Patterson, HC TCU
4) Mike Gundy, HC Oklahoma State
5) Dan Mullen, HC Missippi State
6) Mark Stoops, HC Kentucky
7) Tom Hermann, OC OSU
I won't talk about the rest of the guys as they've been discussed but maybe Mark Richt should be added to the list? He's a proven head coach that works at a school many people compare favorably to Michigan (many people on this blog clamor for a matchup with Georgia because they are one of the few SEC teams who win the right way) and he's in the SEC. Yeah Dan Mullen is more successful than Mark Richt this year but overall I'd say he's a good coach with a good track record. The injury bug seems to hit his teams so definitely look at a new S&C coach (come back Barwis!). He seems to be on the hot seat perennially at Georgia so maybe he'd like to give 10-15 years (he's 54 or so) at Michigan to finish off his career. There's got to be some good reasons people didn't include him and he may not want to voluntarily leave Georgia but he'd be a guy I'd take ahead of Dan Mullen who I'm wary this is one of those team of destiny years that isn't replicable although the Big Ten is not the SEC so I think most of the SEC coaches could come here and win fairly quickly given the excellent recruiting job Hoke has done. I literally took a couple of minutes to put this together so there are probably a lot of better options to choose.
Stitt for OC maybe.
October 27th, 2014 at 11:41 PM ^
October 28th, 2014 at 12:15 AM ^
Me too although again there must be some reason Brian, Ace, or Jamie, haven't mentioned him. IMO he's just as likely as Patterson but again I'm just throwing names out there.
The funny thing is I feel like maybe he could be Lloyd Carr+ but I only know a little more about him from looking at his Wikipedia page. I think it would be a lateral move although it would be far easier to get to the CoFoPo from Michigan than Georgia and I think we can increase his salary significantly if we offer $5 million. I'm just not sure how likely he is to leave Athens although it always seems like he's been on the hot seat.
May be very ethical as he is an outspoken critic of oversigning in a conference that is heavily involved in that shady practice.
When in Rome do as the Romans. While in the NCAA hire coaches from the arguably best conference in the US.
October 28th, 2014 at 2:41 PM ^
you think the Podcasters know more than you about the coaching search? For no reason whatsoever other than a Dana Holgorson man crush, Bob Stitt keeps getting brought up by them. I don't know how anyone can take them seriously after that.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:32 PM ^
My list keeps changing (even since that podcast), but I'll go:
1. Jim Harbaugh
2. John Harbaugh
3. Dan Mullen
4. Mike Gundy
5. Todd Graham
6. Gary Patterson
7. Les Miles
That only includes guys who seem semi-realistic, though I'd like to see us check in on the seemingly unrealistic guys, too, just to be sure (guys like Petersen, Helfrich, Bob Stoops and Mora). Herman is my favorite coordinator candidate. I'm not buying Stitt as a Michigan HC right now.
October 27th, 2014 at 11:19 PM ^
October 28th, 2014 at 4:58 AM ^
why would Gundy come here....Isn't he at his alma matre being personally bank rolled by a billionaire? Just don't see that as even a slight possibility.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:30 PM ^
Jim Harbough is a good example. Brady Hoke is a nice guy and nice guy finishes last.
Of course it takes more than being nasty to win, but please no nice guy this time.
So if no Jim Harbough, we pay Pat Narduzzi a truck load to get him out of East Lansing.
October 28th, 2014 at 12:55 AM ^
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October 27th, 2014 at 10:30 PM ^
1) Jim H
2) Dan Mullen
3) Les Miles
4) John H (I would put him higher, but I'm not so sure about a pro head coach going back to coach in college. I'd love it to work but there isn't much of a precedent)
5) Tom Herman
6) Mark Stoops (wildcard)
7) Bob Stitt (bigger wildcard)
October 27th, 2014 at 10:34 PM ^
Note:
I don't understand why Les Miles always gets mentioned and then people promptly say "yeah but he'll be 61." Bill Snyder is 75 and still going strong. Coach Miles could give Michigan another 10 good years easily provided he's healthy and mentally wants to continue coaching.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:55 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 10:32 PM ^
2. Mad Hatter
3. Dan Mullen
4. Todd Graham
5. Gary Patterson
6. Mike Gundy
7. Kyle Wittingham
October 27th, 2014 at 10:33 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 10:34 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 10:37 PM ^
1) Harbaugh
2) Harbaugh
3) Mullen
4) Miles
5) Chris Peterson
6) Kirby Smart
7) Gary Patterson
October 27th, 2014 at 10:40 PM ^
1A. Jim Harbaugh 49ers HC
1B. John Harbaugh Ravens HC
3. Les Miles LSU HC
4. Dan Mullen Miss St. HC
5. Butch Jones Tenn HC
6. Mark Stoops Kentucky HC
7. Bob Stitt HC Colorado School of mines HC
October 27th, 2014 at 10:54 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 10:41 PM ^
2. John H
3. Gary Patterson
4. Dan Mullen
5. Todd Graham
6. Butch Jones
7. Teryl Austin
October 27th, 2014 at 10:46 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 11:10 PM ^
It seems like everyone says Harbauh won't come back because he hasn't won a Super Bowl and he is ultra competitive. Wasn't Nick Saban the same way? His stay with the Dolphins was rather short. Sure he lost more than he had before, but that wasn't the main rub. He didn't have control over the players or organization like he had as a college coach. Harbaugh seems to be getting rubbed the wrong way by the same thing. Why wouldn't Harbaugh want to come somewhere where he could win it all and also have total control of the program? Saban seems to like the challenge and his current situation just fine. I don't hear anyone knocking him for it.
If Harbaugh is that obessed with Carrol getting something he doesn't have, then why didn't he stay at Stanford to get a MNC first? Then he would have actually had a head up on Carroll who did it at USC as opposed to a school like Stanford. Besides, if Harbaugh needs a mortal enemy, I am sure he can make one out of Urban.
I am more worried that he can coach another pro team that will give him total control or that his family doesn't want to move back East.
October 28th, 2014 at 12:30 AM ^
October 28th, 2014 at 12:47 AM ^
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October 28th, 2014 at 7:02 AM ^
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October 27th, 2014 at 10:47 PM ^
Let's have Bob Stitt be a D-1 OC first before anointing him a HC.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:52 PM ^
2 Jim Harbaugh
3 Jim Harbaugh
4 Jim Harbaugh
5 Jim Harbaugh
6 Jim Harbaugh
7 Jesus
8 Devil
9 Jim Tressel
10 Harbaugh's fancy toilet
Not sure about order of last two.
October 27th, 2014 at 11:06 PM ^
October 28th, 2014 at 12:27 AM ^
October 28th, 2014 at 2:43 AM ^
Unfortunately the devil IS Dantonio so we have no chance. And he WAS going to put that stake right up our ass until he stopped and considered what he was saying on national television
October 27th, 2014 at 10:52 PM ^
1-7: Ditka
October 28th, 2014 at 1:36 AM ^
October 28th, 2014 at 4:18 AM ^
Negged.
You NEVER forget Ditka!
October 27th, 2014 at 10:53 PM ^
1) First Harbaugh to walk to Ann Arbor
2) Dan Mullen
3) Gary Patterson
4) Mark Richt
5) Teryl Austin
6) Mark Stoops
7) Butch Jones
October 27th, 2014 at 11:06 PM ^
Brian and Ace convinced me on the podcast that Les Miles would not be a good choice: (1) fractured alumni/booster support; (2) bad offenses; and (3) shady dealings.
October 27th, 2014 at 11:06 PM ^
You put Richt on your list but why would Dan Mullen be ahead of him? If we look at just this year Dan Mullen is beating Mark Richt but if you look over their entire careers Mark Richt seems to have had a far better career. He was OC at FSU for over a decade (under Bowden) and then after a brief stop at a smaller school took over at Georgia in 2001. The SEC East is not the SEC West but Mark has finished near the top of the nation's toughest conference for many more years than has Dan Mullen who up until this year has pretty much only beaten the teams he's supposed to beat. I feel like culturally Mark Richt is a good fit and also agree that I'm somewhat surprised he hasn't been mentioned considering he seems to be on the hot seat many years.
It is true the guy is in his early 50s but if Gary Patterson is near the top of the list I'd argue Mark Richt should be there also.
It's obviously a minor quibble but I'd love for Brian to discuss the possibility of Richt assuming we could land him which may be difficult.
October 27th, 2014 at 11:15 PM ^
Hey, man, I picked up the Richt baton from you, don't bash me over the head with it! No, seriously, I have liked him for a while. Why do I have him ranked lower than Mullen? Richt has coached in the South his whole career, and it might be harder sell to midwest HS coaches. Mullen has been all over and, as you noted, is younger. Plus, Mullen is getting a lot of great publicity over the great season the Bulldogs are having. Hiring him would give us a real shot in the arm PR-wise, which in turn would help recruiting. With Richt, the conventional wisdom might be that he knew he was running out of time in Georgia and jumped ship before made to walk the plank.
October 27th, 2014 at 11:33 PM ^
Did not mean to bash you over the head and appreciate the callout. Apologies for that and I'm glad you talked about the possibility.
Your reasons for having Mullen over Richt make sense to me and I'm glad you took the time to explain your decision. I think we kind of know what we're getting with Richt but with Mullen this is the first time he's really exceeded expectations although yeah he is possibly taking MSU(!) to the CoFoPo while in the same divison as Bama, Auburn, LSU, and so on and so fourth in the NFL's minor league. His upside is possibly higher than Richt and he is much younger so he could be that guy who stays with us for enough time that the Flight Tracker technology is changed to hovercar tracking software.
Have an upvote.
October 28th, 2014 at 12:09 AM ^
I just thought of a simple model we could use when trying to determine the ranking of two closely matched candidates. The variables I would use are the probability of the candidate ending up at Michigan, the probability of the candidate doing well at Michigan, and the ranking of the candidates track record through the present. The first two measures are probabilities so the values will be 0% to 100% while that last one is going to be number and I'm setting my scale at 1-10. The caveat is that these inputs are all going to be qualitative and subjective so people may not agree which of course is fine. I love it when two people can have seven opinions apiece, it makes for an interesting debate. This is a smart community so I'd love peoples' input. The formula is going to look like this: M%*W%*P
My calculations:
Overall the two candidates, Mullen and Richt, have similar likelihoods of coming to Michigan so I'll set both M values at a 60% chance they are coming to Michigan. This could be higher but this is not the findamental difference between the two candidates. I'd say that Mullen's potential is higher than Richt's due to age and that right now he has taken MSU(!) to a potential CoPoFo berth. I'll set the W value at 85% for Mullen and 80% for Richt. I do think Richt has had a better track record so far so I'll set his number at 8.5 while setting Mullen's number at 7.
Richt = (.60)*(.80)*(8.5)=4.08
Mullen= (.60)*(.85)*(7)= 3.57
Of course if you think that Richt and Mullen have performed about the same til now then those final numbers would be a lot closer (in fact equal if you set that last number to 8 for Mullen.
This model may be too simplistic so maybe there are more variables we should add but simple multiplication of probabilities when combined with a ranking of current performance could yield a way to compare different candidiates. Another way to go about this is set up multiple characteristics and give a numerical score multiplied by the weight of that characteristic. 20% of value is loyalty, 40% is current record, 20% is future record, 10% is recuiting, and 10% is development. Maybe it's 30% current record and 20% development then you assign grades to each category and come up with an overall score.
Using the first method above IMO Harbaugh's value is (.35)(.90)(9)= 2.84. Should we bump up the probabilty to 55% chance he would come to Michigan his score would be 4.46.
Numbers used were of course subjective and now that I think about it the second method is probably more useful since it's basically an expected value calculation.
tl;dr I know.
October 28th, 2014 at 10:00 AM ^
has been using a formula he developed in his CC diary pieces that take some of these into account.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:53 PM ^
jim mcElwain, dan mullen, butch jones, repeat list offering more money and hope for a yes.
October 27th, 2014 at 11:01 PM ^
October 27th, 2014 at 11:30 PM ^
short list,so hopefully wont get that far. He's got an offensive background, recruits, been around the midwest- which may or may not be a good thing anymore, young passionate head coach who just might be an available option. Wears headset.
October 27th, 2014 at 10:58 PM ^
2. Dan Mullen
3. Mark Stoops
4. Gary Patterson
5. Les Miles
6. Todd Graham
7. Bob Stitt, yes I'm serious. If Kansas is smart they'll take a chance on him with literally nothing to lose. The AD who hired charlie weis is probably not bright enough to hire a competent replacement, though
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October 27th, 2014 at 11:02 PM ^
two questions: Are we just choosing not to believe John H. when he said publicly he has no desire to coach any college program, specifically Michigan? Has something changed there? Seems like a pipe dream at this point for either Harbaugh as we can't match NFL $$.
I find it interesting no one has mentioned Cam Cameron. Not saying he's the best option, but he and Miles are the two left from the Carr tree that are viable candidates....and he seems far more likely to entertain the idea. Could do a lot worse (like Brady Hoke!). Is the consensus that we will actively go AWAY from the "michigan man" crap?