Remaining 2021 Schedule: About as Good as One Could Ask For
Wish I could present this in table format, but anyway:
Who Michigan Plays the Week Before 'Hard' Games--and Who Michigan's Opponents Play
- OSU plays MSU the week before The Game (Michigan plays Maryland the week before)
- MSU has a bye before Michigan
- PSU plays Maryland the week before PSU plays Michigan (Michigan plays Indiana)
Thoughts on the Schedules
- After the bye, Michigan gets a 'relatively easy- relatively hard' pattern from now until The Game. The game after the bye is against NW, which is a virtual bye that should see backups get snaps for at least a half against nominally B1G competition and an opportunity to live-fire some technique and whatever Michigan was working on during the bye week (though hopefully not trot out any strategic wrinkles).
- OSU/MSU the week before The Game is definitely a harder draw for OSU, though I remember hearing that MSU runs a similar offense to Michigan
- MSU might have a slight advantage with a bye, but Michigan's bye week followed by a borderline D2 NW team the week after is closer to a push--arguably in Michigan's favor for reasons mentioned above
- PSU/Maryland the week before is also about a push compared to the Michigan/Indiana matchup--maybe slightly in Michigan's favor since PSU/Maryland is a rivalry game.
Areas for Further Discussion/Analysis
In addition to any feedback on my thoughts above, here are some things I don't really know about that could be interesting to discuss:
- Schematic. Is there scheme similarity that will make games easier or harder prior to games against the relatively hard teams?
- Actual Impact. Do teams tend to lose more often against 'hard' teams the week after they play another 'hard' team? It makes sense to me that it would since time to coach college players is a major constraint, and the less you need to focus on a given opponent, the less time you can spend on a future one. In years past, I have this feeling that Michigan had bad luck with scheduling, and this at least didn't do the team any favors.
- Relatively Easy Aren't Actually Easy. Indiana and Maryland will be hungry, desperate teams. Can Michigan handle it, or will it be another Indiana situation that gives OSU a winning gameplan? Are these teams good enough to be 'trap' games?
October 13th, 2021 at 3:23 AM ^
Whoops. I meant to publish this to the MGoBoard. I'll leave it to the mods, as I'm pretty sure this isn't diary-worthy.
October 13th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^
Research and answer your own questions at the end, get them to let you edit it, and it'll definitely be diary worthy.
October 13th, 2021 at 5:21 AM ^
Oh well. It's early for a diary with some feedback on ideas.
Your premise of easy-hard is intuitive, but the team needs to prepare hard for each opponent.
Each game is an opportunity for a win against a different quality opponent and scheme. To take any one as easy is foolhardy.
Silence, violence and take care of business.
October 13th, 2021 at 7:50 AM ^
What you wrote. What Hutchinson said. What Harbaugh said. What the team's saying.
Take care of the next game.
P.S. Silence, violence, & TCB: I like that. Is that yours? I'm guessing it's a kind of repeated folk poetry. Either way, it's terrific.
October 13th, 2021 at 8:04 AM ^
Ojabo said it in a post-game interview. It needs a t-shirt with his jersey number and name on the back.
https://mgoblue.com/watch/?Archive=29535&type=Archive
About 1:20 of video.
Silence, violence, take care of business and go back home.
October 13th, 2021 at 9:33 AM ^
so they list the players' respective hometowns as they interview them. ojabo's is.....aberdeen, scotland. cue the braveheart theme:
that looks pretty close to maize and blue.
our high school defensive huddle break is 'violence!'. i like the silence, take care of business attitude. exactly as it should be.
October 13th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
I like the comparison, except for the decapitation at the end of the movie. Also, silence was not part of William Wallace's repertoire in the movie.
October 13th, 2021 at 10:47 AM ^
come on EQ, work with me a little, won't ya?!
October 13th, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
Do you mean the upvotes aren't enough?
October 13th, 2021 at 9:48 PM ^
XM---have your high school defensive team learn the lyrics too!
October 14th, 2021 at 5:43 AM ^
now that is an oldie, 48 yrs ago. might be a bit long to have our defense chant that one out....
October 14th, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
Maybe just cut it down to a chant of "Violence, Violence, it's the only thing that will make you see sense!!"
October 13th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
But is there not some truth to far out-talenting an opposing team and running out mostly vanilla stuff that nonetheless gets results? I'm not saying the teams won't be scouted and not taken seriously. But I also don't think that when time is such a limiting factor, you've got to ration it appropriately and give more attention where it needs to go.
October 13th, 2021 at 6:57 AM ^
Other than a bye week and a game against NW, there aren't any 'easy' games in the B1G this season. The biggest problem with both Indiana and Maryland is the lack of a viable B1G quality QB. But both teams have schemes that are very different from each other, and not overly similar to PSU or OSU. They each have quality-ish WRs, decent backs, and competent OLs. What they lack is even a solid game manager at QB, let alone someone that could change the game. They both had it - Penix was one of the better looking QBs in previous seasons, but was a broken shell this year until PSU just finished him off. UMDs version of Taga was a playmaker, if not an every down threat, but the backup isn't much. I mean, Maryland is what they are - a team that goes through QBs like other teams go through water boys.
Both games should be comfortable wins that allows Michigan to work on some areas of need and get backups some snaps in not-garbage time. But we've seen Indiana put the screws to us before, so it can happen. And Maryland's offense is just weird, it won't give any looks for anything that OSU might do. So I don't think either team will offer much of a 'warm-up' game before the main event the following week.
Both teams are a fluke QB performance from making these games interesting. Indiana is probably closer to that look. But I think its also closer to PSU's offense than UMD is to OSU's. Either way, they can both be trap games if Michigan doesn't take them seriously.
Doubt that? Remember Rutger...
October 13th, 2021 at 7:56 AM ^
Abso-positute-ly. It's the Big Ten. Big (Four)Te(e)n.
As for "fluke QB performance," compare Rocky Lombardi, 2020 and 2021.
October 13th, 2021 at 8:20 AM ^
I don't wanna. Too soon.
October 13th, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
Good point. I admit I did feel awkward posting something negative, even in the rear view mirror.
October 13th, 2021 at 9:05 AM ^
Although Indiana seldom beats Michigan (last year being the rare exception), a lot of the Indiana games have been very close. In their last 5 meetings, only one was an easy win (2019). In the other 4, Indiana either led or was within one score at the half.
October 13th, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^
I went with 'relatively' easy because you definitely have a point, here. That said, the idea that the QBs aren't very good would seem to cut against an argument that the games aren't 'easy.' A bad QB with talent around him is usually a death knell, no?
The relationships between the offenses are interesting to me. I'd even if the game is different from the one played before, using MSU to prepare for The Game, for example, doesn't sound like a bad thing--be it technique, scheme fundaments, or whatever have you.
Anyway, thanks for the feedback. Broadly speaking, we agree on some stuff.
October 13th, 2021 at 8:09 AM ^
I'm not sure if I can handle it.
October 13th, 2021 at 8:56 AM ^
Northwestern is not a “virtual bye.” There is a long history of “virtual byes” coming into Michigan Stadium and punching above their weight class.
It should be the easiest remaining game, but only if the team takes it seriously. Northwestern is one of three B1G squads without a conference win. Rutgers is one of the others, and they pushed Michigan until late in the 4th quarter.
October 13th, 2021 at 9:37 AM ^
Michigan leads the conference in rushing offense at 246 yds/game
Northwestern is dead last in the conference in rushing defense at 234 yds/game. The next worst team in rushing defense is Illinois at 159 yds/game.
Unless our OL forgets how to run block, we're going to spend a good portion of the game running the ball down NW's throat.
October 13th, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
Queue the cries of "we don't have a passing game, we'll NEVER beat <insert team name here>"...
October 15th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
we'll NEVER beat (dealer's choice) STATE
October 13th, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
The caveat there is that Rutgers's 3 B1G opponents thus far have been Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State. Rutgers, with a 3-0 OOC record and being favored in 3 of its remaining games, is still highly likely to be bowl-eligible. The Mildcats, as the underdog in all of their remaining games (including vs. Rutgers at home on Saturday), are highly unlikely to be bowl-eligible.
October 13th, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^
I am pretty sure Northwestern is just that bad this year. As Seth discussed, they almost never have the talent, and right now, the limited talent isn't even experienced. This is their down year, and there's not much more they can do schematically to allay that. God, I really hope I don't eat my words.
October 16th, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
A note of caution about Northwestern: Remember that the last time we played them (2018), they were hyper-aggressive defending the run. They also had scouted us well enough to not get fooled when we did pass. The result was a 20-17 slog despite no U-M turnovers.
Now, this NU team isn’t as good as that one. But U-M is surely going to want to keep the offense under wraps ahead of the MSU trip—not just from a passing standpoint but also in terms of running-game frippery. As a result, you could see a lot of plowing into nine-man boxes.
October 13th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
"NW being a virtual bye" this causes flashbacks to so many games when the comments here, leading up to game day were predictions of the 2nd string playing the 2nd half, score predictions of 55-6, etc, etc, etc....
Come Saturday we're in a friggin' quagmire of a game, scratching and clawing to the 4th qtr only to win by one score...
Lets just take care of business..... the only game is the next game (but lets keep preparing for that last game in Nov, while we're focused on the next game)
GO BLUE, beat the fighting Fitzgeralds
October 13th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
We thought Washington, Wiscy, & Indiana would be good this year. It turns out they are not. We thought MSU would not be good this year. It turns out they are. While PSU & OSU are still good teams, neither look as daunting as I would have expected coming into this year. Overall I'd say the schedule is much more favorable than we thought going into the season. I don't see any reason why this can't be a 10 or even 11 win team (particularly if Clifford is not healthy) whereas in the beginning of the year I was expecting a 7-8 win year.
It seems like NW, Indiana, & Maryland are likely wins. It seems like MSU is a coin flip (PSU maybe too depending on Clifford's health). And, it seems like OSU is the only likely loss. I have a hard time seeing UM doing any worse than 3-3 versus NW, MSU, Indiana, PSU, Maryland, & OSU. I'll be happy with 10 wins and ecstatic with 11. I'll be satisfied with 9, but to be a honest a little disappointed considering the start because that means we probably lost to MSU, PSU, & OSU. Anything less than 9 wins would be a surprise.
October 13th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
I prefer an easy game vs a bye before a big game.
Get the starters reps and get them out at NW. This help with your routine and your timing. Use the bye week to expand your play selection and scout you’re rivals
It seems like teams have a tendency to come out flat after a bye week. Our schedule sets up fairly favorable except for two big away games.
NW may be the weakest Big Ten team in years. They might finish last in the MAC.
October 13th, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
NW may be the weakest Big Ten team in years. They might finish last in the MAC.
Well, they did beat Ohio U but I would agree that they would lose to several MAC teams this season. The lack of talent isn't a total surprise since it's Northwestern we're talking about, but what is a surprise is how pathetic their defense is. Terrible offenses are almost a feature of NU football but you could always count on them to be tough on D. Looks like the offseason retirement of Mike Hankwitz, their longtime DC, is having a pretty large effect. Or maybe they're just adhering to the new requirement that Northwestern be terrible in odd years.
October 13th, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
They lost I think ten starters on each side of the ball and just don’t have the depth to recover.
October 13th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
I definitely do not like getting MSU after a bye. That gives them extra time to scheme up misdirection plays for the M game, which MSU has historically had success against Michigan with. Additionally, we saw in the Nebraska game that well-designed screens and misdirection plays can have success against M. Pretty worrisome considering MSU has already had success this year with flea flickers.
October 13th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
I dont like it either but having Northwestern on our schedule is as close to a bye week as you can get. Expect a big dose of McCarthy & Edwards from about the 3rd quarter on and I'll bet anything we'll keep the game plan as vanilla as humanly possible.
For whatever reason all the "state" schools really hate Michigan (MSU, OSU, PSU) and we always get their very best shot. All three schools save trick plays and other formations or just us so winning those games is never easy.
October 13th, 2021 at 10:07 PM ^
Used to work for a PSU grad (whole family had gone there for generations) and I asked him why they hate us so much. He wasn't sure, he just said Fuck Michigan.
October 15th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
Since joining the Big Ten, we've ruined some of their best seasons/start to seasons (1993, 1997, 2005, 2007). Most of them are still upset about 2005 when we ruined their undefeated season with what they thought was "Big House Magic" officiating when Lloyd got an extra two seconds put on the clock (Henne to Manningham happened with one second left).
Also another factor is when they joined the Big Ten, PSU ended long time series with historical rivals, Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, and they frankly were looking for new teams to hate, with UM, OSU, and even Iowa filling the void.
October 13th, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
I think playing a weak team like Northwestern is better than a bye if we take care of business early and get the starters out. Biggest thing is to avoid any major injuries to key players.
October 13th, 2021 at 4:30 PM ^
Iowa after OSU looks like a tough matchup though
October 13th, 2021 at 6:51 PM ^
Won't we get two weeks to prep for it, though?
October 15th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
No, it's the following week right after rivalry weekend. Another reason why the big ten should end the season before thanksgiving.
October 13th, 2021 at 10:45 PM ^
Okay, but that would also be amazing.
October 13th, 2021 at 4:30 PM ^
Double post <IDIOT.gif>
October 13th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
This is like one of those class assignments where you needed 1000 words but ran out of ideas after 500. A LOT of padding after the initial idea, which is a good, a demonstrable one.
October 13th, 2021 at 10:05 PM ^
Only thing better would be MSU, PSU and OSU all having giant meltdowns when we play them. I mean, one can dream right?
October 14th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
What if I told you that of the remaining six games on the schedule, ALL SIX opponents are in the bottom half of the big 10 in opponent first downs allowed?
https://bigten.org/stats.aspx?path=football&year=2021
Opponent 1st Downs AVG/G
1Wisconsin 11.0
2Purdue 14.2
3Iowa 15.5
4Michigan 16.5
5Minnesota 16.6
6Rutgers 16.8
7Nebraska 17.9
8Indiana 19.4
9Penn State 19.7
10Northwestern 21.2
11Maryland21.4
12Ohio State 22.2
13Illinois 23.6
14Michigan State 24.3
October 14th, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^
Pretty incredible stat line. Especially the last one. One would go so far to say as soothing.
October 14th, 2021 at 9:22 PM ^
Depending on your age, sex, sexual orientation, and other factors, I would say that my interest in you, your daughter, your sister, and/or your closest female relative (including an unmarried biological mother) has grown to marital levels.
October 17th, 2021 at 11:03 AM ^
I don't know, I could ask for Maryland to not be on it and replaced with Iowa or Minnesota or some team called Purdue that's allegedly in our conference.
Comments