Post-Commitment Spree Recruiting Overview: Offense Comment Count

Brian

or HELLO: HELLOS

[pokes head up from under couch]

is it over?

...

i think it's over.

...

All right folks, the dust has settled years after the meteor impact. Fewer complaints echo through the forest. The recruiting class is radically different than it was a couple weeks ago. Mammals can get big now. Let's play the feud!

QUARTERBACK

STATUS: No change. Michigan has NV QB Cade McNamara, a mid four-star. McNamara did get invited to the Elite 11 finals, which naturally consists of 12 quarterbacks these days, and performed well, finishing third in 24/7's eyes on the first day:

...solid showing from start to finish with good ball placement. The Reno (Nev.) Damonte Ranch standout consistently spun a good ball, and might have been the surprise of the day of the quarterback group. We will see if the 6-foot-1, 206-pound McNamara can continue this good showing during seven-on-seven play.

The Elite 11 changes formats every year and had a period where it was absurd—Trent Dilfer was involved, they invited like 25 QBs and gave them all eight throws, that sort of thing—but IIRC it's now a three-stage process and McNamara has impressed at all three stages. So maybe it has some legitimacy?

MORE? No. No QBs are on the radar.

RUNNING BACK

Charbonnet's film is all right

STATUS: Michigan went from zero to stocked up by adding CA RB Zach Charbonnet [hello] and TN RB Eric Gray [hello]. Gray is the #1 all purpose back per 247 and a lock to be compared to Chris Evans in a year when his recruiting profile gets posted; Charbonnet is the "thunder" in this package but is more of a slashing jump cut guy who happens to be 215 already than a De'Veon Smith reprise.

Both guys can credibly claim to be underrated by the composite. Gray has a prima facie absurd ranking from Rivals, which asserts the kid with 3,000 rushing yards and a committable-ish Bama offer is the #21 prospect in Tennessee; Charbonnet has a boatload of top-end offers, killer film at Oaks Christian, skipped the camp scene, and is in line for a big bump up on 24/7 per Greg Biggins.

That is quite a recovery from a fairly grim outlook earlier in the year when Charbonnet was the only back of note listing Michigan. Usually it takes five touted out of state interests to get one guy; Michigan got two out of one.

MORE? Uh, maybe? Michigan is still hot on the heels of NC RB Quavaris Crouch. Er. NC ATH Quavaris Crouch. Per Lorenz, on his recent unofficial Michigan told him he could play whatever he wants and Crouch might be favoring linebacker—at 6'3", 240 he's a truly enormous running back.

Michigan does have offers out to another couple APB sorts. CA RB Giles Jackson told 24/7 that Michigan was in his top four a couple days ago, and he's taken two visits so he's serious and Michigan is serious about him. KY RB Wandale Robinson made his second visit to AA, has Michigan in his top seven, and provided a really interesting quote about the future of the offense that explains the sudden profusion of waterbug sorts in the class and on the radar:

“They are spreading out the offense. With Shea Patterson and Joe Milton as the quarterbacks, they are opening things up. I saw some film and what they staff did with them in the spring and with the RPOs. They really need a slot guy, who can play running back too. They don’t really have a true touchdown maker and I can be that guy."

Robinson has a bizarre crystal ball split almost equally amongst Duke, Kentucky, Ohio State, and "dunno."

Smart money is Michigan being done at RB unless Crouch comes in as a two way player.

[After THE JUMP: one wild google image search. Bring a fan.]

WIDE RECEIVER

STATUS: Michigan is taking FL ATH George Johnson III [hello] as a slot and they're no longer barren here. Johnson is a virtually unscouted dual-threat QB who picked up a couple of shiny but potentially uncommittable offers just before his Michigan commitment but remains in the low three star range everywhere. You can pick up productive slot receivers from deep in the three star ranks; Johnson's a wild card.

image

GIS for Cornelius Johnson is wild man

MORE? Certainly. Michigan took just one WR last year and he is solidly in the "flier" range; they should be looking for two or three outside WRs. The bad news from earlier—there was literally nobody on the board who even seemed like a strong possibility—has eased somewhat. Emphasis on "somewhat." The main positive here is the emergence of CT WR Cornelius Johnson, who's the kind of guy with Stanford, Michigan and ND high on his list. Johnson's gone from off recruiting radars to the the top 250 on the composite and is at the Opening; Steve Wiltfong just asserted he thought M and Stanford were his top two.

Other touted folk seem like pretty long shots. TX WR Dylan Wright says he'll take an official but is probably an instate battle; NC WR Khafre Brown has Michigan in his final four but probably just as a hat on the table; Top 50 and rising CA WR Kyle Ford will visit and is probably Michigan's best shot at a blue-chipper but USC lurks, as per usual.

Meanwhile in sleeper territory, 24/7's Bill Greene put in a Michigan crystal ball for OH WR Trevon Raphael after Raphael named Michigan his leader in the immediate aftermath of a visit. Like a few other guys in the class, Raphael is new to football and combines potential (6'3", sub-11 100m) with uncertainty. Raphael mentioned Michigan wanting to see some grades from summer classes, so that's additional uncertainty.

2020 BONUS: OH WR Kalil Branham [hello] was Michigan's first 2020 commit. He could be a big slot or an average-sized outside WR; with track speed and many many videos of his personal jugs machine he seems like a good bet to hit.

TIGHT END

STATUS: OH TE and potential headline MVP Erick All [hello] was part of the recent blitz; he's a consensus three star in the Big WR mold who will take a year or two to get up to mashing weight. A bad combine 40 held back his rankings but he did pick up some nice offers (FSU, Wisconsin, Notre Dame) before pulling the trigger for Michigan.

MORE? The only other TE on the radar is 4* CA TE Isaiah Foskey, who's been to a ton of schools over the past six months. Michigan was one of those schools and they are getting a return trip late this month. With a wide open field and a projected February decision Michigan will know if they've got a spot, which is good. After two TEs the past two years a second in this class would be a luxury if Michigan's actually recruiting slots in earnest.

And then there's the "find a large athletic guy in New England" route that Harbaugh's repeatedly used to good effect. This class's Luke Schoonmaker or Sean McKeon could be somewhere in rural Vermont, amiably looming over the townsfolk. Probably not. But maybe! But probably not.

OFFENSIVE LINE

STATUS: Even before the recent commit flood Michigan was close to set on the OL, with five commits. GA OL Trente Jones is the only guy who cracks 6'6" and is definitely a tackle; MI OL Karsen Barnhart and CT OL Jack Stewart are potential swing guys. OH OLs Nolan Rumler and Zach Carpenter are emphatically guards. Rumler's a solid four star and one of the best guards in the class; Barnhart and Jones are in the 3.5* range; the other guys are more generic three stars.

MORE? Apparently yes. Michigan does not have a ton of pure tackles yet and I think we're all agreed on the fact that they should get one to 18 of those. IL OL Trevor Keegan is the name most often mentioned; Michigan also has 100% of the ballz for MD OL William Harrod. Harrod recently backed off on his intention to commit at the end of this month, which might be a slow play from the presumed favorite. Harrod just went to UNC and has a bunch of other trips planned. Keegan just swung through M, PSU, and OSU, his supposed top three, and might come off the board pretty soon. Unusually, Michigan has most of the ballz but Steve Wiltfong has OSU.

OVERALL

Michigan will add another couple wide receivers and an OL; other than that they're probably done give or take a decommit who needs replacing or wild card like Foskey or Crouch. Cornelius Johnson and Ford are the most important guys left on the board, both because they're highly rated and because Michigan needs some outside wideouts badly.

If they can grab one of the two the class is... fine. Good. Good-ish? Good. It's more like a good Carr or a Hoke class than the "I wonder if we can catch Alabama" whirlwind of Harbaugh's first two full classes. That's still a nice recovery from last season's absurd drought. Hopefully whatever logistical/this-guy-needs-fired issues that led to that have been addressed.

Comments

Ron Utah

July 5th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^

Trente Jones is a four-star OL. That deserves an edit.

If the RBs get the bumps Brian has described, we add Keegan and a four-star WR, then we are pretty close to 2017 class levels.  Adding Crouch or Foskey to that haul puts this class pretty even with the 2017 class on offense.  And while that class had an embarrassment of riches at WR, this class has the best RB group since the 90s, IMO.

What I'm saying is that as of right now, it's a Hoke/Carr class, but could easily find its way into being another elite Harbaugh class.  It's also worth pointing out that George Johnson III is criminally underrated, and whether it's Giles Jackson, Wandale Robinson, or even Mike Sainristil, we're probably adding another underrated slot-back type.

Let's wait and see--the floor on this class is very good, and the plausible ceiling is amazing.

Watching From Afar

July 5th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^

Some guys will get bumps I presume.

Turner was one of the top 20 guys at the opening last week based on the tweet that showed high scores. He was a 4 star at one point IIRC. Quinten Johnson is another guy that tests extremely well and might move up some. The OL guys like Stewart and Barnhart have gotten bumps, but let's see if they get scouted more and get bumped again. Or, just get Rivals/ESPN to get their heads out of their butts and do more work than a sophomore eval on guys.

George Johnson hasn't tested as well and while the scouting might pick up on him, not sure how much he'll move. Both RBs could be higher in the overall IMO.

ken725

July 5th, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^

Is Jackson really considered a RB to the staff? I get the feeling that he is being recruited more as a slot or offensive weapon like Michael Barrett from the 2018 class. 

njvictor

July 5th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^

"And then there's the "find a large athletic guy in New England" route that Harbaugh's repeatedly used to good effect. This class's Luke Schoonmaker or Sean McKeon could be somewhere in rural Vermont, amiably looming over the townsfolk. Probably not. But maybe! But probably not."

Thank you for the much needed laugh, Brian. I'm hungover at work and desperately needed that

bronxblue

July 5th, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^

I know that the staff recruits somewhat based on region as much as position (obviously a coach has final say on a position, but maybe Al Washington is the point guy for a kid), but it's interesting that for all the shade thrown at Jim McElwain's hire during the last offensive recruiting review, Michigan has made some more in-roads with receivers since he's come on board and, perhaps, they'll get another top-100~ish kid into the fold.

I'm more bullish on this class than I was when everyone committed because you can sort of see what they're doing.  I'm sure they'd like to be in on more top-100 WRs, but it feels like the ship has righted itself a bit at the skill spots and, you hope, a solid next season will kick that back up.

 

CalifExile

July 5th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^

"After two TEs the past two years." Huh? I thought we took no one two years ago and 3 last year: Mustapha, Schoonmaker and (if you count him) Hayes. Given Harbaugh's love of TEs 4 (or fewer) over 3 years isn't a lot.

CalifExile

July 5th, 2018 at 5:38 PM ^

It could be read that way, and would be technically correct. I still don't think 4 over 3 years is a lot. With Gentry, McKeon, Wheatley and Eubanks looking for time this year It's hard to find snaps for the freshmen. If all 4 return next year you are again looking at sparse playing time, even with 3 TE sets. If there are only 3 TEs waiting after that we have to hope that all 3 live up to expectations.

FrozeMangoes

July 5th, 2018 at 10:56 PM ^

I understand what you're saying but even though we as fans won't know JH will have a pretty good idea what he has in waiting after the four current TEs leave.  Also, the four current TEs won't leave all at once. If you start taking much more than four per three you could end up with 7/8 TEs on a roster. 

Frank Chuck

July 5th, 2018 at 4:28 PM ^

"If they can grab one of the two the class is... fine. Good. Good-ish? Good. It's more like a good Carr or a Hoke class than the "I wonder if we can catch Alabama" whirlwind of Harbaugh's first two full classes."

I firmly disagree with Brian's conclusion. I think we're set up for a remarkably strong finish.

Quavaris Crouch
Daxton Hill
Kyle Ford
Lewis Cine
George Karlaftis
Trevor Keegan

We're at 19 recruits now (but with Herron being iffy despite reaffirming his commitment). Those 6 recruits get us to 293.

And that's not including the possibility of snagging Zach Harrison or flipping Logan Brown. That gets us to 307. Those 8 would make this the best class of Harbaugh's 4 full classes.

And yes, I left off plan B type guys like Giles Jackson, Cornelius Johnson, and Trevon Raphael who can all ball. After a certain threshold (270ish), the recruiting rankings are for rosterbating. Ultimately, it comes down to getting players who contribute whether they are underrated Sean McKeon or late risers (but still underrated) like Khaleke Hudson.

Watching From Afar

July 5th, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^

So you're calling that Michigan pulls in two 5* guys and 4 high 4* guys including flipping 1 (even if it is from Purdue)? That would equal the number of 5* that Michigan has got since Harbaugh arrived, in 1 class.

That's... That's ballsy. I can't see Michigan getting even 3 of those guys.

Crouch will most likely stay close to home.

Hill will probably do the same as he's deciding soon.

Ford as well.

Cine is a possibility but with PSU winning on the recruiting trail I'm even less optimistic.

Karlaftis would require a decommitment, though Brohm's departure seems certain in the next couple of years.

Keegan seems like the only safe bet. And by that I mean better than a 50/50 shot.

If Harbaugh and Co pull even 3 of those guys, it will be one of the best closings I've ever seen.

WestQuad

July 5th, 2018 at 7:23 PM ^

From all the blogs it seems like we have a zero percent chance of flipping Logan Brown, which is a bummer.  Sucks needing lineman so badly and missing on two top [10?] in-state guys.   Hopefully Mazie Smith is in Logan Brown's ear, but in my mind that ship has sailed. 

Need Keegan.

Want Karlaftis just because his story is great and we were in on him early.  

I don't think we've had a player like Crouch except for maybe Woodson.  (He's like Woodson but big.)  Do want.

Obviously want the rest of those guys, but to a certain extent it is just star gazing.  

 

Watching From Afar

July 5th, 2018 at 4:52 PM ^

Back up plan.

Alabama offers 5* John Smith, but he is also looking at OSU and Michigan.

So Alabama offers low 4* Brian Doe.

If Smith signs with Alabama, Doe's commitment isn't accepted by Alabama and he has to go elsewhere.

Basically it's a "here's an offer just in case we need you way down the line" type of thing.

MGoCali

July 5th, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^

We live in a world where 2=3 sometimes. 

It's when a staff gives an "offer" to keep you in mind, and you announce it so it gets put on your recruiting pages, and then people think you are a sought after recruit because all the top schools talked to you that one time. 

 

 

Cranky Dave

July 5th, 2018 at 4:57 PM ^

Coach: we like you player and want to offer you a scholarship...

Player: Awesome! You’re my dream offer! Where do I sign?

Coach: you interrupted me. I want to to offer you a scholarship but need to see if my 10 higher priority recruits commit first. Stay tuned

StraightDave

July 5th, 2018 at 4:47 PM ^

You have to keep an eye on Eric Gray as a possible decommit.  It sounds like he’s waiting for an OSU offer.  

SpilledMilk

July 5th, 2018 at 10:24 PM ^

Are our public primary schools really that much better than Ohio's? I find it hard to believe that guys like Desmond howard and Charles Woodson were bordering retardism before they came to UM. just watching some of these recruiting vids, it looks as if the Ohio kids are among the better educated that I see.

DeepBlueC

July 6th, 2018 at 8:40 AM ^

At least one high quality WR (not a "slot" guy, which basically means a receiver recruit that you have no idea what to do with or whether they'll be any good) is a must in this class.  In the last two years, we've lost all of these guys at WR:

Brian Cole (2015)

Kekoa Crawford (2016)

Nate Johnson (2016)

Amir Mitchell (2016)

Brad Hawkins (2016)

We also lost promising TE Devin Asiasi from the 2016 class, and McDoom is coming dangerously close to being a bust.

Freddie Canteen and Drake Harris have also departed during the Harbaugh tenure, and although they were not Harbaugh's recruits, and would not have been around by 2019/20, that's a lot of attrition at one roster spot in such a short time, and our recruiting has not kept up.  Right now we're basically down to the 2017 class (an excellent group, to be sure) and a moderately productive Grant Perry.  We could be looking at a nasty roster hole in 2020, even taking redshirts into account, if Black and DPJ leave early, as is likely.  

Overall, this looks like a good to very good class, but we are nominally over our scholarship limit as things stand, so it has to be evaluated in light of the guys who will end up departing to make room.

Cruzcontrol75

July 6th, 2018 at 9:39 AM ^

Did anyone hear Sam’s interview with Gray when he said that there was a period where he cooled on Michigan when it seems we stopped contacting him?  Gray said himself that it was Drevno who preferred recruiting bigger backs.  Imagine missing out on this guy and watching him blow up somewhere else?  How the fortunes could change with adjustments near the top.