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4 years 5 months
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Recent Comments

Date Title Body
07/17/2018 - 6:24pm My points stopped updating…

My points stopped updating again

07/16/2018 - 11:25pm memberberries 

memberberries 

07/15/2018 - 7:33pm GTFO, where else can you get…

GTFO, where else can you get a burger, fries, and a coke for $6. Sure, it's not a huge burger but it tastes good and it's cheap, and the workers actually try to be pleasant unlike every other fast food joint except chik fil a. 

07/15/2018 - 6:14pm Just realized he's a…

Just realized he's a freshman in this video... He's fast

07/15/2018 - 6:12pm I timed the two races:

 

I timed the two races:

 

~51 seconds in the 400 

~15 flat in the 110 hurdles  (never heard of a hurdle relay that looked fun)

 

Neither of those times are necessarily elite for track, but I'd think he could go faster on each if that competition was a little faster. They were all slow but him, especially considering they were the anchors...

 

 

 

 

07/15/2018 - 4:14pm crazy final line for him. 

crazy final line for him. 

07/15/2018 - 2:15am Orval trappist ale because I…

Orval trappist ale because I like my pious men brewing beer. 

07/15/2018 - 2:13am the Syrah can serve the…

the Syrah can serve the garlic for your steak!

07/13/2018 - 1:26pm I had so many gold posts and…

I had so many gold posts and comments that went by the wayside... BANG ME TO MAKE UP FOR IT

07/12/2018 - 2:56pm According to MgoFish, the…

According to MgoFish, the first numbers below were the last composite ratings as of the end of our commit spree. The second numbers are today. 

Hinton: 16 -> 22

Herron: 84 -> 86

Smith: 123 -> 119

Rumler: 129 -> 126

Charbonet: 306 -> 186

Gray: 248 -> 245

McNamara: 257 -> 267

Jones: 290 -> 297

Ojabo: 488 -> 318

Barnhart: 379 -> 390

Thomas: 390 -> 401

Turner: 440 -> 443

Q. Johnson: 470 -> 478

Carpenter: 490 -> 509

All: 504 -> 510

Stewart: 593 -> 624

Newburg: 643 -> 688

Velazquez: 968 -> 933

G. Johnson: 953 -> 958

It appears that most slid a couple spots because they weren't re-evaluated while a few risers passed them. Charbonet and Ojabo were given substantial bumps. Velazquez got a little boost too perhaps because ESPN gave him a grade. 

07/10/2018 - 12:48am The user points issue is not…

The user points issue is not fixed. I've been at 352 for weeks, and I'm trying to get above whatever threshold I need now to up/down vote. Not being able to do this is driving me away. 

07/10/2018 - 12:23am Your first complaint of the…

Your first complaint of the modeling of real world data is the typical frequentist complaint of bayesian analysis, and if employing bayes theorem it only really carries water when a strong prior is utilized. 

The problem of using this data to model 2-point conversion success rates is that there are a ton of parameters to explain the model (22 players, weather, etc). Therefore all someone can do is compute the fraction of successes over various slices of the data. The author of that tweet thinks he's done an analysis, which is funny, but what you've pointed out is correct. It is a problem that even educated writers like Brian link it and think it means much of anything. Perhaps fades are bad choices, but these data don't really tell us that on their own. 

07/09/2018 - 7:17pm Agreed, but that isn't even…

Agreed, but that isn't even an "analysis" lol. He categorized and then divided numbers. 

 

07/09/2018 - 1:16pm great first song choice

great first song choice

07/05/2018 - 4:54pm We live in a world where 2=3…

We live in a world where 2=3 sometimes. 

It's when a staff gives an "offer" to keep you in mind, and you announce it so it gets put on your recruiting pages, and then people think you are a sought after recruit because all the top schools talked to you that one time. 

 

 

07/05/2018 - 4:52pm Sure, if we go 6-6 with 6…

Sure, if we go 6-6 with 6 HRs then yes, we'll have a great class. Let's be realistic. 

07/04/2018 - 4:47pm Although, I'll never forget…

Although, I'll never forget hanging out on the field after we beat Ohio State for an hour or so. 

Also the Sugar Bowl was a good time. 

07/04/2018 - 4:42pm I heard about this place my…

I heard about this place my freshman year in 2008. Lurked for a very long time. 

Also, the class of 2012 is in the running for saddest sports class of all time. 

07/03/2018 - 12:19am You just admitted to being…

You just admitted to being intolerant to left leaning people by complaining about left leaning people's intolerance for right leaning people. 

I have an idea, how about everyone tries tolerating everyone a little more?

06/28/2018 - 7:52pm I heard that interview. She…

I heard that interview. She's an example of a doctor from the MSU medical school doing good work for children unlike another doctor there. 

06/28/2018 - 12:54am Great shot. 

These posts…

Great shot. 

These posts are annoying though. 

06/26/2018 - 12:19pm The topic as a whole no, but…

The topic as a whole no, but the stuff I presented in the OP is true. It’s very low level data analysis. I realized it would be fodder for people who are of the belief that recruiting rankings don’t matter. That’s why I pointed out that they do. It’s just that they are less accurate inherently due to the state of that industry. 

06/26/2018 - 4:18am All good points, and I agree…

All good points, and I agree with them.

My statements in the OP take nothing additional into account and assume the each of the 1, 2, 3, or 4 services' rankings are an estimate of the true rankings, which I treated as random variables. Of course, it's all more complicated than that and even than you stated above. In addition to what you listed, there is a program to program bias for certain shapes and sizes. Vipers don't fit a stand 4-3 very well, and so they are underrated nationally compared to their worth to our defense, etc etc etc.

I certainly get the complexity of legitimately quantifying rankings. It has definitely been shown that there is a strong correlation between number of stars and ability in college and draft stock. You are right, it's stronger 5 vs 4 than it is 4 vs 3, and that makes sense to me given that the recruiting industry has limited resources to evaluate players. Still, no one with a brain denies that rankings matter to zeroth order. The point of this post was to point out that if we boil down recruiting evaluation to the simplest form it can take, independent measurements of random variables, then there is a quantifiable deficit in the value of the industry compared to a few years ago. 

06/26/2018 - 2:20am This is one of those…

This is one of those industries where the natural progression of capitalistic consolidation is not good for service quality. Wait, I guess that's most industries... Anyway, regional sites are fine, but they will introduce a lot of bias. I'm afraid the glory days are behind us. Unless, we start paying for the service somehow, like actually subscribing to paid recruiting sites, things won't improve. I'm not willing to do that, and the average fan is not either, I would guess. 

06/26/2018 - 2:16am Well, I've quantified for…

Well, I've quantified for you how much less you can trust the recruiting rankings. As for how much you trust Jim and his staff, that is up to you. 

 

06/26/2018 - 2:13am The uncertainty in my post…

The uncertainty in my post was invented, so don't read into the 100 or so places that I quoted. I literally made that up. It's the factor that matters (i.e. two times less certain with 1 vs 4, 1.4 times less certain with 2 vs 4, and so on). It's impossible to know the intrinsic ranking of a recruit and also impossible to know the uncertainty in the estimate of that ranking without many many more recruiting sites. Only then could you start to bootstrap (technical term) the rankings and set up legitimate models of all of this. 

It further complicates things that their ranking (which I'm assuming to be a random variable in this post) is decidedly not random. By that I mean that regional biases (southern recruits tend to be over-rated), large school bias (small town recruits get overlooked), and a host of others play into this if you were really going to try to model this statistically. It would honestly need a full-on study, and it would be worth some research papers in peer-reviewed journals. I could imagine a statistics PhD on this topic, if anyone is looking to go back to school. 

 

06/26/2018 - 2:05am I should note, that as Bluey…

I should note, that as Bluey has been hammering incessantly, the data have shown quite definitively that rankings matter. I'm just pointing out that they now matter less than they did when four sites were doing a good job.

Even in this environment, they matter, just quantifiably less.

06/16/2018 - 5:54pm I was starting to wonder. Is…

I was starting to wonder. Is this actually confirmed to be maizen's reincarnate? 

06/13/2018 - 7:52pm The article speculates that…

The article speculates that the young man may have suffered a heat stroke based on another athlete's tweet saying he had a liver transplant after heat stroke (which McNair was reported to have had). So, perhaps that's it, perhaps not. I guess I was drawing a connection to the heart defect issue because I am passionate about fixing that since it could save so many lives. Many low income student athletes rely on athletics as a way out of their poverty, yet so many of them could be alerted of their potentially deadly health condition with a simple heart screening. While it would be devastating to learn that you have such a condition, it's better to know than to learn ex-post-facto after collapsing. I know metro-detroit has made moves in getting kids checked. 

I'm not so sure that it being "right after practice" means it wasn't related to practice. The heart-related collapsing event typically happen during the activity, and are directly related to the said activity, but I don't know enough about it to say it couldn't happen immediately after. 

If this is a heat stroke related death, then I hope it is looked into and errors that occurred here can be addressed for future health and safety. No one should die in practice. 

06/11/2018 - 4:50pm Seth just posted it on the…

Seth just posted it on the main page as well. 

06/11/2018 - 4:32pm There have been a number of…

There have been a number of references to mgotrusted users at >500 points. That was what I based it off of. 

 

Good catch on jbdaddy. Any update from him or anyone else just above the 500 point threshold? 

06/11/2018 - 4:23pm Summarizing what I've read…

Summarizing what I've read through in this thread:

1) voting indicators (blue filled thumbs) change upon refreshing 

2) the threshold to vote is now 500 

3) the second row of icons on the main page (the previous posts) are unnecessary since only a couple posts per day are added. 

4) can't tell who posted to the board before opening it. This would have been a disaster when maizen was going nuts, and also it's bad for future trolls. 

06/11/2018 - 4:17pm I'm a very frequent board…

I'm a very frequent board reader and a very infrequent poster, so I'm gunna have to do some work to get over this 500 threshold. 

06/11/2018 - 4:15pm I had this for the first…

I had this for the first couple days but now it seem to work. 

06/11/2018 - 1:02pm 22-30 receptions per snap is…

22-30 receptions per snap is pretty terrible for those corners. In fact, it's impossible. 

22-30 snaps per completion seems more like what they were trying to communicate. 

 

05/17/2018 - 5:25am Injuries and too many innings

He was one of the top pitchers in all of baseball from 2011-2013, but he pitched way too much after deep runs in the post season each year.

He had surgery on his core and was pretty slow to start 2014. It took most of the year to get back to strength. That was evident from his losses in velocity and strike out rate, but he was able to remaster some of his off-speed stuff, which is coming in handy now that he doesn’t throw 102 in the 8th inning. Then in 2015 he sat out until May with a triceps injury, and again had a slow start, but in both of those years he finished strong.

He was deserving of the Cy Young in 2016 and then he had another great year last year. So really he lost a couple years to injury, but once he got strong again he is back to where he was. I don’t think his 1.05 ERA is going to hold, but it must be a bit rejuvenating to be on a World Series team again.

I hate that PEDs have to be a default here, but I think his trajectory is well explained without them. He worked hard to pitch without the high 90s cheese in 2014 and 2015. He started a recent trend of working above the strike zone with fastballs. He also has much better command of his off speed stuff.

In the end, his success is tied to his velocity, and sure, it’s possible that it’s come back up because of PEDs, but I think it’s also possible he has just worked hard and time has passed since a couple of tough injuries and some overwork.

To address your question though, check out Randy Johnson’s stats. He was good through his 30s and into his early 40s (never really had down years to draw a comparison). Schilling missed quite a few starts in 1999 and 2000 before coming back strong for his mid 30s. David Cone missed most of 1996 and came back for a strong 3 years in his mid thirties. Yet, there are others who didn’t (Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Roy Haladay) and there are some who used PEDs to keep it going (Pettite, Clemens). Maybe for JV it’s just that he married Kate. Who knows?

05/17/2018 - 12:24am Struck out Shohei Otani on

Struck out Shohei Otani on three pitches for the 2500th of his career (33rd to get to that number), popped out Justin Upton on one pitch, gave up a single to Pujols, walked Andrelton Simmons on five pitches, and I had thought I jinxed him. 

Challenged Zack Cozart with a 97 mph fastball down the middle and got a weak pop-out in the infield to end it on his 118th pitch. 

Great game for JV. I miss him wearing the old English D. 

 

05/13/2018 - 4:21am I'm drinking Oaktown Brown by

I'm drinking Oaktown Brown by CaliCraft Brewing now. Yes, I know it's not a spring beer, but I can't kick the brown ale habit I picked up last year. 

Favorite spring beer...got into craft pils last spring. Does that count? Thinking outloud now.. Firestone Walker's 805 is good. 

05/02/2018 - 5:09pm I just looked it up, he was a

I just looked it up, he was a top 5 defensive player all time, and a top 50 offensive player. Sure, the streak became a thing, but he was great for a long time. 

05/02/2018 - 4:23pm He was on great teams. He was

He was on great teams. He was a great player too. A top 20 all time offensive player. His defense was grossly overrated though, and that was annoying. He wasn't a top 1000 all time defensive player, yet he won five gold gloves in his thirties when his defense was in decline. 

Baseball is really hard to judge. There are so many attachments to counting stats and longevity, and some of that is deserved. I think the five rings speaks volumes. Clearly a hall of famer, and no one would deny that. I think it's just the defense that should be removed from the pedestal. 

04/21/2018 - 2:20am Military equipment, weapons,

Military equipment, weapons, arms in general are thriving in this chaos. 

04/17/2018 - 8:00pm You pondered how this

You pondered how this situation would play in the media. This isn't just you having a difference of opinion with a few people. You have a shit opinion, and everyone is letting you know. GTFO

04/12/2018 - 7:39pm This helps explain things.

This helps explain things. Hopefully he finds a place he can shine. 

04/12/2018 - 3:34pm If you don't want to cut your

If you don't want to cut your cords, call comcast and tell them you are switching to whatever competitor they may have in your area (I know this is almost an empty threat given the ridiculous regional monopoly cable providers have --- aside -- sent a letter to the FCC about this as well). Tell them you are going to streaming or whatever, UNLESS, they add back BTN. If all of you do this, they will add back BTN. 

I can't tell you how many times the treat of leaving comcast has netted me a $30 dollar voucher for this or that. Just complain at them with threats of leaving, and they'll fold. 

04/11/2018 - 7:49pm St. Ignace is prounced saint

St. Ignace is pronounced saint ig-niss. Mackinaw City is probably better for tourism, but I'd probably skip out on that whole place if I were you. The Island is okay for a day, but don't stay longer. People will recommend it, as I see someone did above, but it's overrated. After you bike around the perimeter and visit the fort, there isn't much left to do. Note, there is also a fort right under the bridge in Mackinaw City as well. 

Some good destinations in order east to west:

Drummond Island/Detour, Tahquamenon Falls, Grand Marais is a cute little town at the east end of Pictured Rocks, Pictured Rocks (12 mile beach and the coves are my favorite part, but you have to hike a couple miles to see them. Miners beach is also really cool), Houghton and Copper Harbor, Lake of the Clouds (highly recommend the lookout). 

Other ideas: 

I've stayed on numerous lakes up there with my boat. It's fun to rent a cabin that has a dock and go fishing. That might be better for a dudes trip sometime. 

There are some nice dunes and beaches along highway 2 maybe about 30 minutes west of St. Ignace. Good place to take a nice swim in Lake Michigan. It'd be a bit chilly in early to mid June though, but it'd be refreshing! I'd recommend driving along the north edge toward the west, and coming back along hwy 2 and hitting up these dunes. 

One thing: in early to mid june, you'll want to bring some bug spray and bug nets. I'd recommend later in the summer.

 

04/09/2018 - 5:59pm Fair enough, but I would

Fair enough, but I would prefer for that volume to stay pretty small if our offensive sets are functioning as they should. I guess I'm looking at it in the framework of a full offense, and less as a measure of shooting ability. Keep in mind 12-24 is such a small sample that it could be indicative of a true 60% shooter or a true 40% shooter with a random 24 shot stretch of 50% makes.

To make it quantitative, I just quickly made this (hence it's not very pretty):

This shows the number of shots made in a million random samples of 24 shots from 10,000 shots by a 40% (blue) and 60% (black) shooter. They overlap pretty strongly at 50%, which means we shouldn't really care much about Poole's random sample of 24 shots. 10% of the time a 40% shooter would shoot 50% in a 24 shot sample, and the same is true for a 60% shooter.

04/09/2018 - 5:11pm Wait, 12-24 from pull up mid

Wait, 12-24 from pull up mid range jumpers is not "downright great" ... that's a point per possession with a low number of free throws to be drawn and what seems like a higher chance of a turnover given the couple of dribbles used to get to the spot.

04/09/2018 - 12:43pm Three straight hockey posts.

Three straight hockey posts. Must be some kind of record. 

04/05/2018 - 9:36pm May I bitch about something?

Hockey stats are stupid. Points = goals + assists, so it's redudant to list all three. 

Corsi is (even strength) shot differential, so it's redundant to list all three. 

I hate inefficiency. Gosh!

Okay, GO BLUEEEEE!!!!

04/04/2018 - 8:37pm I agree with regards to

I agree with regards to Brooks. More than once when he came off the bench I felt like I saw a good player in him. He didn't force it, and seemed to make the right play most of the time. Didn't turn it over too much and got some steals. He has less upside than the other two, but I wouldn't mind him sticking around and being valuable his senior year in the CJ Lee mold.

He was really bad in 2008, but in 2009, he was a good guy to have around while some younger players were getting minutes and liable to mess up.