Of all the hot takes from this weekend—and there have been many—the one that rings the one that's most true is Michigan lost because they didn't respect Michigan State enough.

From this column's standpoint, the game was extraordinarily uninteresting. Michigan State did nothing clever to beat Michigan; inch-perfect fly routes to fast guys are 30% plays that get out before a pass rush can arrive, and are only worthwhile as a base offense if you have an extreme mismatch, extremely good accuracy, and extremely good luck. Also Michigan did nothing clever against Michigan State. In fact they took the clever parts of the offense that were so successful against Minnesota out of it, to the point where I wonder if Josh Gattis had much to do with this gameplan at all.

Let's go back to what worked against Minnesota. Michigan debuted their RPO additions to their staple Pin & Pull running game in the 2019 Spring Game. One version used multiple run threats and kept a downfield throw option. Another was to have an RB flare out and use the QB as a runner. Watch what happens to #44 Cam McGrone (bottom ILB):

This is the most simple way to demonstrate what a QB run game does for an offense: you now have one extra guy.

These plays disappeared last year but were a major part of the offense in Week 1 of 2020. Watch this linebacker disappear on Milton's 23-yard run:

Now let's watch the Michigan State game, when that linebacker had the game of his life.

[After THE JUMP in case you don't want to do this to yourself.]

Recent MGoRadio guest Scott Bell uncovered a damning statistic in his recent newsletter:

Had a bonus newsletter drop last night (). I looked at some predictable playcalling that happened on Saturday and identified some tendencies that Michigan needs to break, specifically on second downs.https://t.co/YnW40r6SRM pic.twitter.com/8Y8jz36Q91

— Scott Bell (@sbell021) November 2, 2020

Six situationally similar plays, six runs, and none of them took care of the extra linebacker. Michigan's base running play in this game had no spread in it all. It was this.

This

stupid-ass,

back to the '90s,

no-read thing that only worked when the back could beat two guys on his own,

or MSU got caught cheating to it so hard that Michigan hit a cutback.

They ran it so much it didn't even work as a play-action.

They did get the Ben Mason run off of it though.

La di frickin dah. I only clipped half of them. Here's the one got me standing up screaming at the television.

The play is Counter, and you set who does the kickout block based on the defense's alignment.

The concept is really the same as Counter Trey. You have frontside guys blocking down on the playside T and MIKE, a first puller kicking out the edge, a second puller who thwams into the unblocked defender in the gap, and some backfield action meant to get the defense stepping backside.

You see Wisconsin run it all the time, and they're usually so good at winning blocks up front, or winning one-on-one battles with their running backs, that it works great for them. For an offense that can get consistent movement up front, make the right blocks, and push people around with their fullbacks or tight ends, it's the functional equivalent of MSU lobbing up fades, IE a play that's always there because you have a fundamental disadvantage that you turn into an advantage by having the players to execute it.

PROBLEM 1: EXECUTION

So the first issue with this play on Saturday was Michigan screwed it up themselves as often as not. I'm not positive Klatt has the assignments right but whether this was power and Stueber (#71) vamped by going for a kickout or Hayes or Mason hit the wrong guys or what, this was wrong.

The reason I don't know is Michigan had Mason and Mayfield block the same guy on the Corum TD.

That mess actually got three guys because it picked off Filaga's pull, leaving Corum with many unblocked guys.

If doubling that guy was supposed to create havoc in MSU defense it didn't work.

PROBLEM 2: MICHIGAN STATE CAME PREPARED

MSU isn't just another team on the schedule. They're Little Brother, the program that makes an especial study of Michigan because this game is more important than any three on their schedule. They're also a team with a very competent front seven that plays with an Even front with eight in the box that takes away C gap runs and forces you to attack the A gaps (where you might meet the occasional double-blitz). Moreover it was extremely evident against Rutgers that MSU was overprepared for these specific concepts.

Like giving their speedy receivers who haven't shown any route chops a matchup where they only need speed, this concept played into Michigan State's strengths. The first instance Michigan ran it there should have been claxons that MSU came into the game very good at this one thing. See if you can pick out their little trick. It's at the top of the line.

MSU was playing the same gap switch games against Michigan's power concept that teams use against committed zone read offenses. The DE set up way wide, so much so that the tackle, Mayfield, either had to go way out of his way to go around, or more likely pass by. In this case Mayfield went around, finally encountering the strong safety who converted to the edge.

The trick though was after screwing with Mayfield, the DE shuffled way inside again, where he can't be kicked out, and got into the backfield. Mason was not in position to kick him anymore, and the guy was too far up field to turn inside.

There are ways to deal with that, e.g. swap Mayfield's and Mason's duties. The same thing is what happened when Filiaga and Mason blocked the same guy. Watch the DE and the linebacker.

I don't know how they coached it this week but in the past, e.g. last year against Illinois, when a DE ducked inside they had the first puller turn him and the second puller (Mason) deal with the next guy, so I'd guess this was Mason's mistake.

PROBLEM 3: YOU GAVE AWAY THE FARM

The thing that stands out most is what's Joe Milton threatening on this play? On this particular play Mayfield missed the middle linebacker, but even if he hadn't MSU was setting up to take this away, and reacting to it so strongly that there was another cutback lane like Evans took available if Filiaga saw it:

Filiaga's day was quietly just as terrible as Vincent Gray's. But here's the thing: that cutback lane could have been wide freakin open, or the MSU linebackers would have had to stop blasting to the playside, if there was a QB threat in this play. Michigan State got to play a man up in the running game because Milton was not part of it. The clip at the end of the play is damning in 2020:

This was the fundamental flaw in Michigan's offensive approach to Michigan State. Even when they weren't running their base-for-a-day counter play, Michigan constantly let an MSU player account for both Milton and a backfield threat.

That's not to say Michigan didn't have reads. This power play read the backside defender (this time the nickelback) with an option to give to Henning on a BASH (backside outside) run if #29 (guy at LB level on the far right) takes a step to playside.

But again there's no QB threat in that play. Milton is just a guy standing in the backfield handing off to A or B. MSU still has an exta defender (the cornerback in this case) if all the blocks go well. Klatt says Hayes should have come off his block so Mason could get that guy. I know another way to get that guy…

Put Haskins out side to draw a linebacker away, Give Joe Milton the inside run, and Henning can still be a BASH read.

I really do like the idea of using a fullback to eject guys from their positions, and I think this line can be taught to execute Pin & Pull-like concepts as well as the last one. What I don't want to see any more of—not even against Rutgers anymore—is Michigan going back into this 1990s idea that the quarterback is enough of a threat on a play-action deep ball that they can run the running game without him. Milton hasn't shown yet that he can throw the deep ball with enough accuracy to beat even his own team's cornerbacks. Now they've got the worst L of Harbaugh's coaching career tatooed on their faces, damaging their chances of recruiting a championship caliber team down the road, and giving an extremely annoying rival who was down in the dirt a shot at being a serious thorn again.

But they kept Milton from taking hits. I bet he feels great.