MGoPodcast 14.0.b: 2022 Preview, Defense Comment Count

BlueBarron August 24th, 2022 at 7:30 AM

1 hours and 38 minutes

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1. Defensive Line

starts at 1:00

Despite Chris Hinton's departure, defensive tackle looks like a solid group! Mazi Smith was named the number one freak in the country by Bruce Feldman (in a good way). Is Mazi Smith finally happening this year? It might finally be happening this year, but he's definitely the biggest X-factor on the defense. Former MGoBlog Sleeper of the Year, Kris Jenkins, looks to be rounded into a Ryan Glasgow type. The depth takes a drop after these two. Consensus seems to be that Jim Harbaugh's "gift from the football gods" comment was referring to Kenneth Grant. Brian wants Alex (Drain) to get older. George Rooks looks encouraging down the road. Jim Harbaugh says the defensive ends won't see much drop-off and might even be just as good - worst offseason lie we've ever heard? We feel good about Mike Morris, who should be a B+/A- player. After that, ehhh. Taylor Upshaw might be ok, Braiden McGregor hasn't been talked about much in camp. TJ Guy is a guy. Derrick Moore could be great but is a true freshman. Julius Welschof could be an X-factor! Brian wants a weakside end that eats peoples' souls and that probably doesn't exist this year. 

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

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2. Hot Takes and Linebackers

starts at 31:20

Takes hotter than whatever is going on in the capillaries in Brian's face from having to record all three hot takes segments at once. Linebackers are in a similar boat as defensive tackle - two guys coming on that you feel good about and then a pretty stiff drop-off. Junior Colson and Nikhai Hill-Green's development this season will be crucial for this defense, Josh Ross isn't around to solve your problems anymore. Junior Colson runs fast, sometimes in the right direction. Next man up is Michael Barrett, who is not an inside linebacker. Maybe they give Jaydon Hood a chance? The freshmen probably won't contribute much this year. Maybe they Ravens it and run one linebacker- wait they did that against Michigan State, never mind. 

3. Secondary

starts at 54:21

Last year's secondary intro was "oh god oh no" (and it ended up being fine), this year feels much better! DJ Turner is the 4th Michigan player to make Feldman's Freaks list and was on a 3rd team All American list. Gemon Green has never performed at the highest level but has shown flashes. He's a decent to good Big Ten corner but the ball always goes through his hands, this is a good floor at cornerback. Enter Will Johnson: a true freshman who will absolutely see the field. Moving a starter from receiver to cornerback usually is a bad sign, but I think we feel... fine? About Mike Sainristil? He played offense and defense in high school and has the athleticism for the position so he might be decent in the new role. Those are probably the four corners that will get significant snaps, we probably won't see much of Jaylen Perry. At safety, are we sure Brad Hawkins doesn't have another year of eligibility? RJ Moten and Rod Moore will likely be the starters. They held their own in the snaps they played last season, including against Ohio State. The rest of the depth chart looks ok if they need to step up. There's been positive chatter about Quinten Johnson? Seth is high on Damani Dent. 

4. Special Teams and Defense in Summary

starts at 1:21:06

Special Teams: same as last year, the end. Jake Moody, Brad Robbins, AJ Henning, and Blake Corum are back. Also Ronnie Bell is back to return punts (/TweekACK). Shout outs to Jay Harbaugh for being the best special teams coach in the country and Cornelius Johnson for blocking two punts. Best special teams unit in the country (again)? What would Nebraska's record be last year if they had Michigan's special teams? Overall defense feels rickety, there are maybe four or five spots that having to rely on backups would be bad. If you were starting a defense from scratch, starting with two good defensive tackles and good cornerbacks is a good start. Expectation for the defense is around top 20-30 nationally. 

MUSIC:

  • “No Beginner”—Serengeti
  • “Ode to Viceroy”—Mac Demarco
  • “Tidal Wave”—The Apples in Stereo
  • “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:

 

"I'm drinking the juice!"

Comments

Buy Bushwood

August 24th, 2022 at 8:45 AM ^

My fear is a repeat of 1998, when losing the greatest player of a generation (Woodson) seemed tolerable given all the talent that returned.  The following three years were incredibly talented teams led by Brady and Henson, two NFL Hall-of-Famers on the OL, lots of NFL defenders.  But the results were 10-3, 10-2, 9-3.  No team really lived up to it's preseason potential.  The only real blossom being the defeat of Alabama in the Orange Bowl.  Losing a player like Hutch is like kicking the door open to a dark room.  Hard to know what's in there, because it's hard to really quantify what a player like Hutch brought to the team.  In Woodson's case I remember an assistant coach talking about how they just put Sir Charles on the wide side of the field and knew they had that entire area shut down, or, at the least, the opponent would be quite wary of directing their gameplan that way. They could then build their entire defense around that, and that once he was gone that scheme was gone, and that defense was much more challenging despite talented players. Like Woodson, Hutch came up biggest in the biggest games.  Rare players like that make 10-2 seasons into 12-0 seasons with key plays at the biggest moments.  Almost inconceivable that the D will have a player like that this year.  A few others like that would be Peppers, Brandon Graham (wasted on RR teams).

1VaBlue1

August 24th, 2022 at 8:03 AM ^

Another gleeful drive in to work with an unexpected surprise!!

I will agree with Brian about Mazi - he was pretty good last year, but not someone anyone thought was best o' conference type.  Anyway, even if the defense isn't the offense, I think it'll be better than we think - especially later in the season after they get a chance to figure some things out.  Because this isn't Rich Rod, Michigan's defense is always decently good enough.  This year, with the cushions the offense should* provide, I think it'll be much better than it otherwise would be with a 'normal' offense.

 

* - The Harbaughffense often disappoints us in its variety, aggression, play calls, and pace.  We always expect it to be different this year...  Maybe it will be this year?

mp2

August 24th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^

I have a long drive next Friday. I’ve been saving season preview podcasts for this drive. I’m looking forward to the seven hour drive somehow. 

Michigan4Life

August 24th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^

Freshmen CB will always struggle when they see a lot of PT. They tend to get picked on and will allow big catches. Will Johnson will be good in time but just don't expect him to be good out of the gate. Derrick Stingley is the exception to the rule when he played at an All-American level in his first year of starting. Chuck Woodson is the same way as well.

Plenty of NFL CBs has gotten burned in their freshman year. Joe Haden comes into mind. He could not cover Adrian Arrington, Mario Manningham in the Citrus Bowl game. 

My big preference is Germon Green will take the job and play at a steady level while giving Will Johnson some reps here and there. Next year is when I expect Will to establish himself as the top CB on the team. 

Blue Vet

August 24th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^

Brian to Alex Drain: "Get older!"

If that's within his control to do immediately, as Brian's comment suggests, perhaps it's possible to reverse the process.

Brian, please yell at me to "Get younger!"

Koop

August 24th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^

Can't understate how important a good pass rush was to the team defense last year--disguised a lot of flaws that could have been exploited with more time.

I worry that this defense won't be able to get off the field on third down and will force the offense into more pressure situations. Even if the offense finds a replacement for Hassan Haskins, it won't be able to ground-and-pound if it's playing catch-up. Maybe that doesn't get exposed in the first half of the season--but by the time the competition ramps up with PSU, MSU, OSU, I really, really hope there's a consistent pass rush.

MGoBlue96

August 24th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^

Eh, I would hope this years offense is less ground and pound with the two really good explosive RB's they have, along with the wealth of talent at wr and te. Quite frankly no offense to Haskins but with a probable better o-line than last year and having a great tandem at RB I really don't see how this years running game doesn't end up being minimum as good as last year and likely even better anyways.

ShadowStorm33

August 24th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^

Yes and no. I think the losses wrt Haskins are a RB that can grind out yards in short yardage situations, and a RB that can just run over the opposing defense. Both of which are extremely valuable. But I do agree with the general sentiment. Since we no longer have thunder and lightning at RB, but rather lightning and lightning, I hope we really lean into a lightning style offense instead of the thunder style that Harbaugh has so often seemed to fall back on...

bronxblue

August 24th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^

Good analysis.

They're going to have to find a pass rush from somewhere.  Mazi up front should help compress the pocket a bit but I'm not sure they have enough guys on the edges to really make that matter.  I do think they'll find a way to generate some pass rush via formation shifts; Georgia didn't have an elite edge rusher last year and generated top-10 pass rush numbers via their LBers and unique deployments.  Obviously this defense isn't at that level but the blueprint is there to make life difficult enough for offenses that the front 7 may be able to get some disruption.  But we'll see.

The secondary should be a strength and so that might also help in pass defense.  As for run blocking...we'll see.  Ross wasn't great last year but he knew what he was doing and Colson strikes me as still a bit of a wildman out there.  And Ojabo and particularly Hutchinson were great at sealing the edge and they'll have to replace that with guys like Morris.

Anyway, feels like a season where they'll struggle-ish early on but will hopefully round into shape and be a top-20 defensive unit overall by the end of the year.  My one fear is they don't ever get the rush figured out and they just get nickle-and-dimed down the field by better offenses.

kjhager444

August 24th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^

Just a reminder that Ojabo took about 3-4 games for the blog to come around on him, and then go full speed ahead.  

https://www.mgoblog.com/content/upon-further-review-2021-defense-vs-wmu

Ojabo  3    10   -7     See the athlete, expectations scaled way back.

The “linebacker” who frustrated me the most was David Ojabo. His athleticism didn’t translate to pass rushing like Hutchinson’s, and meanwhile his rawness was very evident on a number of bounces to the edge that should have been TFLs. He was also getting held like a motha on most of those plays so I’ll reserve judgement. His athleticism also isn’t quite good enough to play linebacker.

It's unlikely that the DE's are able to match what we finished last season with, but we were skeptical on his ability until the Wisconsin or Rutgers game.  

Matching Aiden is of course a completely different story.

The Homie J

August 24th, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^

That's why I'm not super concerned about the edges (yet).  Obviously Ojabo was helped by having Hutchinson sucking up blockers on the other end while he developed but both guys starting this year will guys with several years in the program and WAY more experience than Ojabo when he stepped onto the field versus Western Michigan.

I think there's a pretty big space between Ojabo on snap 1 of the 2021 season and O-JA-BO against Ohio State.  Our guys should easily be better than the early Ojabo but less than O-JA-BO.  And that should be enough with the stronger interior with Mazi and Jenkins to be a solid, if maybe not consistently disruptive d-line.

AlbanyBlue

August 24th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^

I have confidence in the staff that they will find / develop edge rushers -- we seem to have a knack for getting the most out of that position. Hutch was generational, but Ojabo was a huge surprise. I'm confident the staff can do that again. Linebackers...eh concerned. But the secondary should be fine. 

Overall, the defense takes a small-ish step back and the offense has to step up and become more prolific. That potential is there, which is why I expect us to be in position for the conference title if we can find a way to win at the Shoe.

Monkey House

August 24th, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^

I don't know how a fan of a team that has 2 of the most famous punt returns, made by 2 of the best players in program history doesn't want your best punt returner not to do it 🤷🤷

Bo Harbaugh

August 24th, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^

Did I miss something?  I thought the 5* transfer Eyabi Anoma was eligible to play right away this year.

If ever there was a player attribute (athleticism) and given position (edge rusher) that just needs enough snaps to put it together and be an impact player - like Ojabo last year - it would be this young man.

Assuming they unleash him early in the year as a 3rd down pass rush specialist, and build up his workload and responsibilities over the course of the year, I could definitely see an Ojabo type ascension over the course of the year.

LeCheezus

August 25th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^

I think the blogmind and authors are generally being too optimistic about the offense and too pessimistic about the defense.  Under Harbaugh, the defense has almost always been better or as good as the sum of its parts (maybe 2020 excluded, but hard to say since there were so many holes from a personnel perspective).  Conversely, the offense tends to be worse than the sum of its parts (maybe 2021 excluded), particularly the stretch from 2017-19.

Last year we were terrified they were talking up Ivy League transfer DT's in the spring/fall, but the DE's and better than expected secondary/ DT's turned out a pretty good defense.  This year we have the DT's but not DE's and looks like the secondary will be strong again.  I think they will find a way to make it work - someone (or two) out of Guy/Welschoff/Bennett/Harrell/Upshaw will be better than expected.

Whether it was Harbaugh's or Gattis' direction, we now seem to have an OU/OSU style of personnel: the guards have lightened up which maybe means more of an inside/outside zone team, they have receivers coming out of their ears, and are basically starting Michigan JK Dobbins.  I want to believe, but I am highly dubious the offensive personnel will be anywhere near optimized this year and we'll still be running the ball 55-60% of the time with a top 5 in the country receiver/TE room.  This should be a spread 'em out and hit matchups/run into light boxes offense, but I'll believe it when I see it - it's just too different from what Harbaugh has clearly shown his MO to be for the last 7 years.

Last thing - the correct Hot Take on Kenneth Grant is "KENNETH GRANT WILL BE THE NEXT JORDAN DAVIS."  FFS, Mo Hurst?  Mo Hurst was like 6'2" 280.