preview 2022

Hello. You have reached the end. This year's preview adds up to 56,811 words. Thanks to everyone quoted, and Seth and Alex for picking up OL and LB, respectively.

The Stepped Upon

Preview: Colorado State. Take my Nevada, please.

Opponent Watch Part 1. Nonconference? More like noncompetitive.

Opponent Watch Part 2. To Mordor we will go.

The Story

City of Stairs. How to handle a breakthrough: build.

Offense

Quarterback: Guy who led Michigan to Big Ten championship may not keep his job because absurd five star is entering year two.

Running Back: Mike Hart, but fast! Chris Evans, but targeted! Short yardage a question. 

Wide Receiver: Last year's crew plus Ronnie Bell. Giggity.

Tight End: Two mid-round NFL draft picks, plus a horde of youngsters.

Offensive Tackle: NFL-ish left tackle and a good story on the right.

Interior OL: Plug and play Rimington finalist plus two guys on the verge of blowups.

Five Questions, Five Answers: QB, dunno; Gattis, meh; short yardage, ok; flea flickers, ALL OF THEM.

Defense

Defensive Interior: Arrows straight up. Depth a bit wobbly.

Edge: Chris Wormley 2.0, and… can I interest you in Chris Wormley 2.0?

Linebacker: If it goes bad this is the most likely spot.

Cornerback: Five star can't miss and a guy who could but didn't.

Safety: Catch ball plz.

Five Questions, Five Answers: Macdonald a loss, Minter a fine option. Hope you like blitzes. Ben Herbert: that dude?

Miscellaneous

Special Teams: I AM THE GREATEST, quoth JayBaugh

Podcast 14.0A: All the offense stuff above in one two hour audio block.

Podcast 14.0B: Same, but defense.

Podcast 14.0C: Looking around the league.

Heuristics and Stupid Prediction: 10-2.

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Thank you to everyone who wrote something to me over the past year. It was good to hear that what I've done here is valued. Thanks to Alex and Seth for picking up the slack. I—we—are very lucky that probably the only other person on the planet who could do UFR was already on staff. This year we're splitting those duties in the hope that we can find a sustainable model going forward.

Let's play some football.

[Bryan Fuller]

Go Blue.

Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense. 5Q5A Defense.

Heuristicland

Turnover Margin

The theory of turnover margin: it is pretty random. Teams that find themselves at one end or the other at the end of the year are likely to rebound towards the average. So teams towards the top will tend to be overrated and vice versa. Nonrandom factors to evaluate: quarterback experience, quarterback pressure applied and received, and odd running backs like Mike Hart who just don't fumble.

Year	Margin	Int +	Fumb +	Sacks +	Int -	Fumb -	Sacks -
2007	0.15 (41st)	14	15	2.46(33rd)	14	13	2.17 (67th)
2008	-.83 (104th)	9	11	2.42(33rd)	12	18	1.83 (57th)
2009	-1.00 (115th)	11	5	1.83(68th)	15	13	2.33 (83rd)
2010	-0.77(109th)	12	7	1.38(98th)	15	14	0.85(10th)
2011	+0.54 (25th)	9	20	2.31 (29th)	16	6	1.38 (33rd)
2012	-0.69 (99th)	7	11	1.69 (69th)	19	8	1.38 (28th)
2013	+0.38(33rd)	17	9	1.9 (64th)	13	8	2.77 (109th)
2014	-1.33 (124th)	5	5	2.4 (49th)	18	8	2.2 (63rd)
2015	-0.31 (92nd)	10	2	2.5 (32nd)	10	6	1.4 (28th)
2016	+0.54 (24th)	13	6	3.54(5th)	7	5	1.69 (39th)
2017	-0.31 (90th)	10	7	3.23(8th)	10	11	2.77 (111th)
2018	+0.38 (35th)	11	6	10.5% (3rd)	9	3	5.4% (43rd)
2019	+0	9	11	9.0% (16th)	9	11	6.1% (61st)
2020	+0.38 (35th)	11	6	10.5% (3rd)	9	3	5.4% (43rd)
2021	+0.14 (56th)	8	8	6.8% (62nd)	5	9	3.3% (6th)

Despite having extremely good turnover avoidance Michigan was almost dead even a year ago. The QBs and most of the OL return so sack avoidance should still stay high. The pressure number for Michigan is distorted by the inevitability of Hutchinson—most teams did a lot of dinking. I mostly include this in case Michigan is extraordinarily lucky or unlucky and can expect some regression. This doesn't look like much of anything, projection-wise.

Previously: Podcast 14.0A, 14.0B, 14.0C. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Offensive Tackle. Interior OL. Defensive Interior. Edge. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A Offense.

1. Does losing Mike Macdonald matter?

Probably. Unlike Gattis, Macdonald did not make a lateral move, and his trajectory from nobody to position coach to college DC to NFL DC speaks volumes about what the Ravens organization thinks about him. It's no disrespect to Jesse Minter to say that Michigan would have been better off if Macdonald had set up shop in Ann Arbor for several years. (Schematically, anyway. Macdonald reportedly loathed recruiting with the fury of a thousand suns.)

HOWEVA, that does not necessarily mean this year's team is going to be hindered by the transition. Going from Don Brown's all-man all-the-time approach to the Raven's diverse collection of fronts and zones is jarring. A few different players had issues with the change—or in the case of the freshmen linebackers, with trying to absorb it fresh. Gemon Green was iffy in zones, and when I was going over DL clips I think I found several instances where one guy was running a stunt and the other guy wasn't. Brown used stunts, of course, but whenever you change your playbook and your terminology you lose all that familiarity and increase the chances you bust.

Losing a DC after one year re-imposes all those costs… unless it doesn't.

Jesse Minter is a branch of the Ravens coaching tree and he has seven years as a college DC under his belt. Sam Webb on the transition, or lack thereof:

The commonality in scheme with former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has been obvious and has allowed for exactly the kind of seamless transition Harbaugh hoped for when he made the hire. The familiarity for the players has made the install of new elements very smooth, especially when it comes to pressure.

The defensive nomenclature certainly hasn't changed from last year, with Harbaugh announcing a 3-4 style defensive depth chart just like last year's. Minter brings the best of both worlds: continuity from the Ravens and college experience.

What he does not bring is much of a track record. His single year at an abominable Vanderbilt program (2-10 last year, 122nd in SP+, 115th on D) is no data at all. He did do an encouraging job with Georgia State, which transitioned to D-1 in 2013, his first year with the program. After two years stuck near the bottom of FEI (119th and 128th, the latter dead last) on teams that went 1-23, GSU popped up to somewhat respectable (81st and 76th) in 2015 and 2016. Building a fresh-to-FBS program into a defense in the vicinity of 2016 MSU, Kentucky, Maryland, and Arizona State is something. And he moved up over time with the Ravens.

I'd rather have kept Macdonald, even with a recruiting gap, but Minter is a young up-and-comer who came through a good organization and has one build job in his past that looks encouraging. It'll probably be fine.