[Bryan Fuller]

Preview 2022: Special Teams Comment Count

Brian September 1st, 2022 at 4:51 PM

Previously: Podcast 14.0A14.0B14.0CThe StoryQuarterbackRunning BackWide ReceiverTight EndOffensive TackleInterior OLDefensive InteriorEdgeLinebackerCornerback. Safety.

Kicker Yr Punter Yr Kickoffs Yr Punt Return Yr Kick Return Yr
Jake Moody Sr.* Brad Robbins Sr.* Jake Moody Sr.* AJ Henning Jr. Roman Wilson Jr.
Tommy Doman Fr.* Tommy Doman Fr.* Tommy Doman Fr.* Ronnie Bell Sr.* AJ Henning Jr. 

Michigan gets back the Groza winner, a Ray Guy finalist, the Big Ten's best punt returner by YPA, a wide receiver who blocked two punts a year ago, and is about to deploy Roman Wilson as the kickoff returner. The question foremost in this preview's mind is whether Michigan will repeat as the best special teams unit in America, as measured by FEI.

Is there a German word for "we thought this guy was a nepotism hire but he's secretly the best special teams coach in America"?

KICKING: IT GOES IN

RATING: 5

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something about golf clubs [Patrick Barron]

I'm not sure what else to say?

Moody was 23/25 last year and had that draw you see on the two Nebraska field goals all year. The draw is comforting like a 30-year-old recliner. Moody puts the ball up, it drifts a little to the left, every time. No funny stuff is going on with these field goals. You could rub warm butter over Rob Thomas and it would not be as smooth as a Jake Moody field goal.

[After THE JUMP: quien es mas punto, Iowa?]

The only minor note of caution is that Michigan was "only" 8th in field goal efficiency because Moody's attempts were disproportionately short. (You may remember the red zone struggles.) He does not have a track record of slamming them through from 50+, although he did hit a 52-yarder against Washington.

Moody also dumped two-thirds of his kickoffs in the endzone, but this is a little deceiving. Opponents only returned 14 of his 98 kickoffs—another 15 or so were not touchbacks but fair caught. When opponents did attempt to return them they went 12 yards a pop, which is nowhere and nothing. Michigan was 7th nationally in kickoff efficiency.

Hail Moody.

PUNTING: THE SECRET SAUCE

RATING: 5

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honorary aussie [Patrick Barron]

BRAD ROBBINS is an easy guy to watch punt. He punts it, and then it's in the air forever, and then the other guy fair catches it. His 46.3 average was 18th nationally. This is solid. It also does not tell the tale. Only 9 of Robbins's punts came back last year, and opponents got a total of 35 yards on them. That moves him up to sixth.

Once you take touchbacks into account… well, he stays sixth because holy god Rutgers's Adam Korsak put 37 punts inside the 20 with zero touchbacks. But he moves in front of Matt Araiza in net punting yards.

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When you crunch all the numbers as finely as you  can—ie, judging every punt by net yardage based on where the punt was launched from—Michigan's punt unit moves up to 4th nationally in FEI.

Robbins does all this from Michigan's NFL-style coverage scheme that sends two and only two gunners downfield. It's hard to believe we were yelling about this nine years ago, but The Mathlete put together some charts about punting and punt returns in 2013 and the rise of shield punt coverage saw return average collapse 42%. It really is a better way to cover punts. We stopped complaining about it a few years ago because it was clear Michigan felt they could block a ton of shield punts—and they do—and didn't want to have that same vulnerability. But there is a cost.

Oklahoma, Rutgers, Penn State, Tulane, and Texas all use shield punt coverage. Those are the five guys with better net averages than Robbins. Robbins does not have that luxury and is still up there with all those guys. So despite the eyepopping gross average for Michael Turk and Adam Korsak's uncanny ability to avoid touchbacks, Robbins has a case as the best punter in the country even though Turk and Korsak are back.

This space isn't saying he is or he isn't. The assertion here is that Robbins is the best possible punter for Michigan because he takes all the downside out of their protection scheme.

RETURN UNITS: USAIN BOLT BUT SLOW

RATING: 4.

Returners should be very fast and also not the best players on your team unless they're gamechangers who absolutely must return punts (see: Jabrill Peppers, Steve Breaston). So this was welcome news:

Returners look really good — punt returner going into the season is going to be AJ Henning, kickoff returner is going to be Roman Wilson and Joe Taylor is number one right now as the off returner.

These guys are insanely fast. They are also not Ronnie Bell and Blake Corum.

AJ HENNING did have some hiccups early last year. He was dodgy enough in fall camp that Michigan's first option after Bell went down was to insert Caden Kolesar. Even though Kolesar was clearly the "safe" option, he made a bunch of mistakes trying to field punts and Henning was given a shot… whereupon he did the same thing. Sometimes he salvaged it.

This never quite went away; he fielded a punt at the two in the Big Ten championship game. Thus, the dichotomy of man:

It is undeniable that Henning was very "explodes in all directions."

But the guy had a knack for finding the seam and bursting up through it. The sheer number of quality returns he put in was enough to make him the best punt returner in the conference, on a YPA basis, by almost two yards a pop. That's despite not ripping off a touchdown in there anywhere. That lack feels like bad luck more than anything else. We have plenty of evidence Henning is a burner, and his return style is less jitterbug and more find the lane and go.

The hiccups might be somewhat overblown, even. Michigan was 37th in punt return efficiency; Henning was 18th in YPA nationally. Some of that gap is Henning, but another chunk of it is that Kolesar period. If you subscribe to the idea that Henning was unfortunate not to bust a distorting TD last year then his YPA average is probably about what his impact is.

All that said: please stop fielding punts at the two.

ROMAN WILSON has been tabbed to be the kickoff guy, for what little that matters these days. Michigan finished 17th in FEI last year almost entirely on the strength of that Music City Miracle play against Maryland:

Even with that Michigan only averaged 18 yards a return, 88th nationally. (The gap there is because one free touchdown is worth far more than two or three yards of field position at the beginning of a drive.) Also they averaged two kick returns a game. With the updated touchback rules this is by far the least important play in football.

That said, Wilson is a good bet to pay off a crease you create all the way and Jay Harbaugh might have something else up his sleeve this year.

COVERAGE AND MISCELLANEOUS

RATING: 5.

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WHERE IS YOUR PUNT GOD NOW [Patrick Barron]

This section exists mostly to continue marveling at Michigan's insane rate of punt blocks under Jay Harbaugh. CORNELIUS JOHNSON got two last year, including the decisive FEIST championship belt decider:

In addition to that, Michigan did good work on fakes last year. You probably remember Frames Janklin's Wild Ride:

The successful fake punt before that saw Michigan anticipate it and call timeout to prep for it, but Quinten Johnson got lost in man coverage on a ball that would have been broken up (at least) if not for a pretty spectacular dorf. Michigan's failed "fake" punt against MSU was Robbins bobbling the ball and taking off; it was not called. FWIW.

Meanwhile on Michigan's end, MICHAEL BARRETT continued his reign as Michigan's most entertaining special teamer. There was of course the MCM play above. He also took a direct snap and converted a fourth and short. As they say on the internet, get you a man who does both. Alex detailed many of his exploits in the linebackers post:

Barrett possibly saved a win for Michigan by showing off his throwing prowess in executing a fake punt pass to Dax Hill against Army in week two. Later in the year he pulled off another fake punt by taking the snap as the upback and plunging up the middle. ... Barrett was named the defensive and special teams player of the week after that game [Minnesota 2020], the latter because of a long kick return he had, taking the ball on a bounce and hoofing it a long way. ... His only notable appearance during this time was on special teams, again pulling off a fake punt on an upback direct snap against Washington

Expect another special teams highlight or two out of him this year. 

Coverage units? They exist but the kickers have done a spectacular job of making them nigh irrelevant, and that should continue.

Comments

ehatch

September 1st, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^

1. Do not taunt Happy Fun Ball.

2. Do not taunt the Punt God. In Kinnick. Ferentz has been sacrificing running backs for the Punt God favor for years. 

PopeLando

September 2nd, 2022 at 8:02 AM ^

Jay Harbaugh can fucking coach.

His reign on Special Teams aside, as a TE coach he has sent a LOT of folks to the NFL. I don't remember his years as RB coach being too terribly flashy in terms of results, but I don't remember it being a disaster either. 

ShadowStorm33

September 2nd, 2022 at 1:32 PM ^

I don't remember his years as RB coach being too terribly flashy in terms of results, but I don't remember it being a disaster either.

I wasn't crazy about his time as RB coach. Very good recruiter, and not a bad coach, but I thought he was a downgrade from Wheatley at RB, and also that he was better coaching TEs than RBs. Also, I remember an insider report that, at least his first year there, a grad assistant did most of the actual RB coaching, and he was learning how to coach the position from Youtube videos.

Now ST is another matter; he's been downright outstanding at it. It's kind of funny that both Partridge and now Jaybaugh have been better at coaching ST than the actual ST coach we had in 2015 (Baxter), and I'd say Jay has even exceeded the high bar that Partridge set.