THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#79 Michigan (7-11, 2-5 B10) at #2 Purdue (17-2, 6-2 B10)
WHERE	Mackey Arena West Lafayette, IN
WHEN	9:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: PU-17 Torvik: PU-20
TELEVISION	Peacock (streaming link)

THE OVERVIEW

Purdue Basketball is having its 2023 Michigan Football season, with a game-bending senior up front who put off the pros to get in a run with some underrated sophomores coming into their stardom. Also along for the ride are some longtime contributors who chose to come off the bench rather than transfer because This Right Here is The Year. They're led by a brilliant, 100% authentic, Hall of Fame coach whose one knock is an inability heretofore to win on the biggest stage.

The difference: Purdue Hoops ran over a murderer's row of Xavier, Zaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Bama, and Zona in the nonconference, then lost road games at both of the Big Ten's mediocre NUs.

Like 2023 Purdue Football, Michigan is a rickety nuisance that looks tougher on paper than the field of play, is playing this one without a critical guard, and is about to get steamrolled. There the comparisons end, except their visit to West Lafayette is being played far too late at night on Peacock.

If you're looking for reasons to get your login credentials back from your brother and stay up for the nadir of Michigan basketball since before Zak and Stu, it's that what Purdue does will work equally well on #3 Arizona or #95 Indiana. Until they prove otherwise, we can assume the general Painterness of this program that leads to upsets against Farleigh Dickinson is still baked in. Who's the Farleigh Dickinson now? We are. Go…wildcats? Corporals? [does a google] Knights!

[Hit THE JUMP for murder at the hands of good people.]

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Tray Jackson suffered a broken nose as well as a concussion at Penn State, may require surgery, and remains questionable. Dug McDaniel is serving his second road game suspension of ~5. Jace Howard and Jaelin Llewellyn recently returned to the lineup but their coaches say they're still being watched carefully.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

They're healthy.

THE THEM

The basket has a hand in the way. [Campredon]

Fortunately for anyone paying the already outrageous prices for tickets at Yost and only that, 7'4/300 center Zach Edey chose basketball at Purdue over hockey. This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move. His usage, efficiency, defense, and array of tricks has only improved over his four seasons. Last year he ascended to Kenpom Top 5 territory, and this year he's far and away the best player in the country. He doesn't shoot threes so he's not in the NBA, but he is up another 15 pounds. He plays 75% of their minutes, rebounds everything near the basket, and blocks anything you try to put near it. He's up to 63% from two and 75% from the free throw line, which he visits 18 times a game because 1.5 points per trip is still slightly below the 1.56 PPA he's scoring at the rim. He has excellent hand, excellent instincts, and excellent touch.

What's really developed in the last couple of seasons however is Edey's pick and roll game. That he's automatic as a cutter isn't surprising, but the fact they've gotten 30 of them plus 34 pick-and-roll opportunities is indicative of the challenge the senior version of this guy presents. If you can keep him out by just a little bit, Edey will turn to a 45% hook shot then collect his rebound and dunk it. Your best shot is to try to muscle him baseline and trap. Did I mention he's up to 300 pounds?

Defensively he's always going to drop of course. His movement isn't great so he tends to be patient and wait for you to make your move before using his length to combat it. Nebraska blitzed the lane and tried to get him sped up, but that doesn't have a ton of applicability to Michigan.

What does apply are the underdog strategies that teams like Samford and Farleigh Dickinson were willing to deploy, like trying to gnat Edey into turnovers with their backcourt or using a 5'8" guy at the tip. Getting out in transition can also win you a trip without Edey.

Those strategies lost a good amount of efficacy with the recent development of rare top-50 recruit PF Trey Kaufman-Renn, a moderately switchable athlete who's progressed to a three-level scorer in his redshirt sophomore season. Last year he was a Brandon Johns making odd decisions and passing up good threes to dribble into bad two's. The latter is still part of his game, but he's lethal from the perimeter on the nights he's locked in, and those nights are now most of them. TKR has good reason to try to get to the rim because he's an amazing finisher and tends to draw a lot of contact besides. He had an ankle scare last game but practiced all week and is expected to be healthy tonight.

Defensively, TKR has the talent and plays well in Painter's system, but there are cracks that the NBA isn't going to care about but Michigan should look into exploiting. He's a bit undersized for the four, and only an okay athlete, so whichever matchup he's getting is probably getting just C-grade defense (plus an Edey bonus, but what you gonna do?). Kaufman-Renn starts, but he only plays about 40% of Purdue's minutes, as Painter uses TKR's versatility to get a low-risk look at what the opponent's Edey plan is before selecting his lineup to crack it.

SF Fletcher Loyer is a wiggly, slashy shooter without much bulk. They use him interchangeably at the three or two, where he's an overall improved version of the complementary freshman from last year. What he's not is a point, and that gets him into trouble because every team since last year's tourney exit has tried to make him handle the ball into the same results. This works because Loyer's no better at finishing than he is at jumpers or threes—about 40 percent at all three levels. This year he's learned to flop more and get his points at the line, which is probably going to work at home the way it didn't work at Northwestern.

The major development with Loyer is his defense, where he's gone from the spot you want to attack to a bit of a pest who can operate efficiently in their system. That hasn't given him any bulk. Backing him down and shooting jumpers before you get to Edey help isn't a recipe for an efficient offense, but Loyer leaves a higher floor for offensive efficiency than you usually get against a one-seed.

SG Lance Jones has fit right in since transferring from a four-year career at Southern Illinois.

@marchmadnessmbb Is Lance Jones a part-time Tik Tok dancer? Some are saying… #LanceJones #Purdue #Boilermakers #PurdueBoilermakers #PurdueBasketball #Basketball #CollegeBasketball #CollegeHoops #Hoops #College #Sports #BigTen #Dance #FYP #Viral ♬ original sound - March Madness

To extend the Michigan Football metaphor, Jones is the Josh Wallace who came in to fill a role and surpassed all plausible expectations. That role is a wily combo guard who will make smart decisions, can just enough threes to be worth covering, and take you off your feet for a sweet trip down the lane if you give him an inch. Think MAAR. Jones also carries his weight defensively, and has a little bit of creation left over from trying to be SIU's point guard his first two years.

The veteran presence has done wonders for PG Braden Smith, who had an incredible freshman season and has progressed apace into a do-everything offensive maestro. He's also just unathletic enough that the NBA isn't going to snatch him before he gets really good. Like his classmate Loyer, Smith doesn't convert that well at the rim; in fact his threes, long two's and shots at the rim are all at 42 percent right now. The athleticism knock is also your best bet to do something against Purdue, though it requires canning the majority of the threes he will leave a little open.

Smith goes for steals at the perimeter, so if you can can 60% like Nebraska you're in business. [Campredon]

Smith's turnover rate is still high, but that's partly an effect of opponents having no better options than to try to press him in search of those sweet, sweet, Edey-less transition possessions. The corollary of this strategy is Smith's assist rate is closing on 40 percent. He's also developed a knack for the well-timed pull-up that answers a momentum-shifting basket, cancels a run, or sends Mackey into a frenzy. That's a combination of icewater veins and excellent shooting mechanics that extend Smith's effective height. He also has long arms, so he's the rare "six-foot" basketball player who really deserves to cheat that number a bit. On the court there's not a huge difference between him and "six-four" Loyer.

The Bench

Is the strongest you're going to see in modern college basketball outside of programs that will chuck $millions of NIL at guys. M

• Old wing Mason Gillis is a knock-down shooter who can create his own looks when he has to. That's rarely necessary, as defenses are usually disjointed from trying to deny Edey and Purdue has many ways of turning this into Gillis opportunities. The former starter will play at least half of the game, either at the three or four depending on what best exploits the matchup. He's another guy with limited NBA potential who makes up for it with opportunistic play and good energy. He also has an excellent rapport with Edey, and is enough of a passer to get announcers reminding you a couple of times a game that he doesn't just space the floor.
• The other way to go when Painter adds is to insert nearly top-50 big Caleb Furst, though that's been a rarity this season. That's to the good; Furst is really more of a second center than a big four. He has good athleticism and requires a full-fledged five to keep him away from the rim, a luxury nobody has against this Purdue team. There was some potential in his recruiting profile as a Hunter Dickinson-style three-point shooter, but he rarely gets one to go. Instead Furst will get in his work in the paint and give Edey a spell without giving up the lead.
• Older wing Ethan Morton is your standard Purdue Just-a-Shooter, though he's not shooting well at all this year. He's made up for it with his wingspan and gritty defensive play. They tend to play Morton after Purdue's gone on a run in order to cool the game down and lock in that score differential.
• Cameron Heide lost his senior year of high school and last season to a foot injury, which dropped him to just a standard four-star, but there was a time the explosive winger was flirting with top-25. The reason for that is Heide can get UP. This works in shooting—he's over 50% from the arc despite plenty of contests—and at the rim, where Heide's put some guys on posters this year. He doesn't generate his own offense yet, but he's going to be another feather in Painter's cap when his career is over.

THE TEMPO FREE

Four factors:

Do you see it? Do you see the weak spot?

THE KEYS

Edey's finally eclipsed 300. [Campredon]

Make every three. This is the tried and true way to beat any 1-seed, but Purdue will give up way more threes than a team with the best 2-point defender in basketball on it should. A hot night from the arc is a critical first ingredient.

Sure, do the Farleigh. You gotta take what you can get, and what you can get with these guys is turnovers from Smith and Loyer that result in transition opportunities without any Edeys to worry about. The blueprint for beating Purdue is to keep that pressure on.

Run the court. Same reason. Take every transition opportunity, and try to get Edey worn out.

Use up all the energy drinks. Playing center against Purdue is brutal, but the best way to keep them from Edey'ing you to death is if Reed makes up the 35 pound difference with chest effort.

Two bigs 2 win? Edey isn't leaving the paint and would rather play small. If Nkahmoua gets TKR on an off-night Michigan might be able to keep pace.

Jaelin Llewellyn is good actually. There was a point in his career when we thought he could PG a tournament team, and that player was out there against Maryland. Northwestern's Boo Buie had 31 points and 9 assists against this backcourt.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Purdue by 17.