Bracketology: 6 Seed in Midwest
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
In the same bracket with Xavier as the 1 and Auburn as the 2?? Yes please.
I guess the loss to NW didn't really do much damage to where we all thought M would be seeded at this point.
This is an absolutely critical week. If they can get both Iowa and OSU, I think that would keep them off the 8/9 for sure.
February 12th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^
Absolutely have to beat OSU this week. Losing that game just isn’t an option. I hope they beat OSU in the most demoralizing fashion possible: an Evan Turner-esque buzzer beater.
February 12th, 2018 at 10:26 AM ^
For a team ranked #37 in RPI and #27 in KenPom. I'd love that seeding of course, and it is an attainable one with a win over OSU, but we feel like an 8/9 seed to me as of today.
February 12th, 2018 at 10:31 AM ^
Michigan is a 9 seed according to bracketmatrix.com. Lunardi is seconded higest on us as there is a bracket out there that has us as a 5. Every bracekt has Michigan in the tourny but there are a couple who have us as 11 seeds.
February 12th, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
Anyone who has us as an 11 seed has far less credibility than Lunardi.
February 12th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
If you separate the B1G into three tiers:
Tier 1 - Top 6 in B1G (Ohio State, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan and Penn State);
Tier 2 - NIT Teams (Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland)
Tier 3 - Bad Teams (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Maryland and Rutgers)
Ohio State is 4-1 (wins vs. Michigan, vs. MSU, vs. Nebraska, & @ Purdue, loss vs. Penn State). They still have to play @Penn State and @Michigan, so a total of 7 games vs. Tier 1 teams (4 home & 3 away)
Purdue is 3-2 (2 wins v. Michigan, vs. Nebraska; losses @ MSU and vs. Ohio State). They still have to play Penn State at home, so a total of 6 games vs. Tier 1 teams (4 home & 2 away)
Michigan State is 3-2 (wins vs. Purdue, vs. Nebraska and vs. Penn State; losses @ Ohio State and vs. Michigan). They have no tier 1 teams remaining and a total of 5 games vs. Tier 1 teams (4 home & 1 away).
Nebraska is 1-4 (win vs. Michigan; losses @Ohio State, @MSU, @Purdue and @Penn State). They have 1 tier 1 game remaining, home vs. Penn State, for a total of 6 Tier 1 games (2 home & 4 away).
Michigan is 1-4 (win @MSU; losses 2 v. Purdue, @Ohio State, @Nebraska). They have 2 Tier 1 games remaining, home vs. Ohio State and @Penn State, for a total of 7 Tier 1 games (2 home & 5 away).
Penn State is 2-1 (wins @Ohio State and vs. Nebraska; loss @MSU). They have 4 Tier 1 games remaining, home vs. OSU, @Purdue, vs. Michigan, @Nebraska for a total of 7 Tier 1 games (3 home & 4 away).
This is 2 years in a row Michigan State has had the benefit of an easy schedule.
February 12th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
Nebraska and PSU are playing better basketball - but you're sort of tilting the numbers a bit by classifying them as "Tier 1" while downplaying the historically better schools (that MSU has played twice).
February 12th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^
February 12th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
What?
MSU played Purdue, OSU and Michigan once each, with 2/3 at home, so not sure how we're downplaying it by including more teams? If anything, it paints a rosier picture.
February 12th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
Using big ten standings as the basis for this seems flawed since big ten schedules are uneven. For example, you have Maryland as a Tier 2 team, but they're ranked higher than Penn State and Nebraska in kenpom.
A kenpom-based tier system would be:
Tier 1 - MSU, Purdue, OSU
Tier 2 - Michigan, Maryland, Penn State, Nebraska
Tier 3 - Indiana, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois
Tier 4 - Rutgers
Using this, Michigan's record against each tier is as follows:
Tier 1: 1-3, one game remaining
Tier 2: 2-1, two games remaining
Tier 3: 5-1, one game remaining
Tier 4: 1-0, no games remaining
February 12th, 2018 at 6:29 PM ^
than the one presented above.
February 12th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^
I believe Maryland should be considered a Tier 1 team based on your current levels. I realize they are 6-8 in the conference, but their schedule as been one of if not the toughest in the Big 10. They lost twice to both Purdue and MSU, lost to Michigan and Ohio state, on the road at Indiana and Penn State. Brutal schedule. They are still higher rated in Kenpom than either Nebraska or Penn State.
February 12th, 2018 at 6:32 PM ^
are in the same tier as Penn State and Nebraska and really there is more of a divide between OSU and M than there is between M and any of Maryland, PSU and Nebraska.
The guy above that tiered it by kenpom has it correct.
February 12th, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
February 12th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
February 12th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
That would put us at 25-8, with no bad losses and a winning record in quad 1. If we win out and win 1 BTT game, we will be a top 16 seed, book it.
February 12th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
I don't think so -- not this year, anyway. The Big Ten is bad. Michigan's résumé in that case would give them 2-3 wins over tournament teams -- @MSU, vs. OSU, and (maybe) @Texas. Combine that with a first-round game in the BTT, which is likely to be against the #12 seed? There's no meat there. Even if you think Nebraska will stumble -- and their schedule is really, really soft (like Wisconsin football soft) -- and Michigan gets the 4 seed, that just gives them a game against Nebraska.
I don't think Michigan sniffs a top-4 seed this year even if they don't lose again, period.
February 12th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
February 12th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
LSU is soldly in the second quadrant. It's not a "good" loss but not a big deal. If we had lost to them at home that would be an issue, but it was a neutral game.
February 12th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
February 12th, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
We have no truly bad losses. All seven are to teams in the top 100 RPI / top two quadrants. Northwestern (RPI 96) is the one that's the iffiest - we'd like to see them win a couple more. But it's not a catastrophic loss.
February 12th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
Neutral vs. LSU is a worse loss than @Northwestern, assuming that you're just looking at win/loss and location. (Michigan played much better vs. LSU than they did @Northwestern).
RPI Forecast has LSU at #90 (now #79) and Northwestern at #108 (now #96, as you said). Michigan should definitely be cheering for both of them to better those numbers.
Neither loss is catastropic, and Michigan would have to lose at least 3 of their next 5 games for me to worry about them not making the tournament. But this is not a team that's going to get a high seed.
February 12th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
I think it would take 4 losses out of 5 for us to miss out. Even then I think we'd still be on the bubble.
A 2-3 finish would mean 11 Big Ten wins and at least one more solid win (either home vs OSU or at PSU/MD). We would be safe in that scenario, I'm fairly certain.
February 12th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
You're giving the Big Ten too much credit. Michigan is probably in with wins over Iowa and OSU, but a first-round loss in the Big Ten tournament is a bad loss, full stop. At the very least, we'd all be sweating throughout (real) Tournament Week. Keep in mind, a 2-2 finish knocks them out of any realistic chance of a double bye, so Michigan is likely to get either the #12 seed -- KenPom projects Minnesota -- or the #11 seed (Iowa/Wisconsin) in their first Big Ten Tournament game. There's no way I'd feel comfortable in that scenario (losing to any of those teams, I mean).
February 12th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
It's less that I'm giving the B1G credit as that - as is typically the case - I don't think the bubble is very strong. If we win two more, I don't see how they come up with enough at-large teams to leave us out. Even one more win might do it.
February 12th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
I hope you're right. But I really hope Michigan finishes strong and we don't have to worry about it. :)
February 12th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
February 12th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
They're in the second quadrant. If they lose out they might drop into the third and then it would be bad.
February 12th, 2018 at 2:23 PM ^
because our last three games are all tough, Q1 games. We'd probably still get a 5 seed in the BTT tourney though, so we'd have to win our first game against the 12/13 winner and would have to avenge our loss to Nebraska in the second game.
But yeah, win out, and get to BTT semis and we're probably a 4 seed.
February 12th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
I think the fact that we have no bad losses is a viable argument for a higher seed. I feel like every year that is the reasonsing that the committee uses to explain away a weirdly high seed for somebody. With the new system a bad loss would be considered a Q3 or Q4. Michigan currently has zero of them. Compared to other teams that are in similar spots in bracketology:
Miami (6 seed) - 1 Q3 Loss (@ GT), 0 Q4 Losses
Wichita State (6 seed) - 1 Q3 Loss (SMU), 0 Q4 Losses
Saint Mary's (6 Seed) - 1 Q3 Loss (Washington State), 0 Q4 Losses
Creighton (7 Seed) - 0 Q3 Losses, 0 Q4 Losses
Texas A&M (7 Seed) - 1 Q3 Loss (LSU), 0 Q4 Losses
Arizona State (7 Seed) - 1 Q3 Loss (Oregon), 0 Q4 Losses
Alabama (7 Seed) - 1 Q3 Loss (Minnesota, 0 Q4 Losses.
The only other team in this 6-7 range without any bad losses is Creighton, who will likely have similar problems in showing that they have good wins. The more I look at this, the more I realize that we might actually belong in this 6-7 range. A loss to Iowa however, would be absolutely crippling.
February 12th, 2018 at 5:00 PM ^
February 13th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
Based on reading through the comments, I think there is some misinterpretation coming from your end. You are acting like this is a subjective thing, but the NCAA came out with a system that essentially shows what is considered a good/bad win/loss. The link is here:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-12-05/ncaa-select…
Essentially, LSU would need to fall 23 spots in the RPI to be considered a Q3 loss. Northwestern would need to drop 39 spots. I don't see either as likely. The entire NCAA is top heavy this year, it is just the way it is. Outside of the top 6-8 teams, you could make an argument for any team to be placed in one of like 4 seed lines. Currently, I think that is the 6-7-8-9 range for Michigan. No bad losses are huge and a loss tomorrow to Iowa would be absolutely crippling. Certainly a win this weekend would be a huge bonus, But wins at Penn State or Maryland would also be hugely benefitial. We currently have 2 Q1 wins, we probably need to win 2 of the 3 remaining Q1 games (I'm hopeful that Penn State creeps its way up there) to solidify themselves in that 5-7 range. That should be the goal. Cannot lose to Iowa, and win 2 of the last 3.
February 12th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
February 12th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
Oklahoma is a tire fire. Kentucky is becoming a fixture on the bubble. Florida can't sustain a winning streak in the SEC. After the top 5 in this country the gap widens significantly
February 12th, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^
I think a lot of times in these threads people are looking at UM in a vacumm - looking only at what UM does. However, the seeding is based upon what 68 teams are doing and their resumes.
February 12th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
February 12th, 2018 at 3:52 PM ^
It's early, no need to look at individual matchups on these types of things but instead, the general area where we stand on a ranking from 1-64.
February 12th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
I know there's a lot of complaining about the Big Ten tourney being so early this year (and I agree) but it could actually help some teams when it comes to seeding. By Sunday and really for most of the Saturday games on conference tourney weekend, the committee has most of the bracket filled out and those games aren't moving teams up and down the seed lines too much. This year though with the Big Ten tourney a week ahead of time, all those games will be factored into the resumes for the Big Ten teams the committee is looking at.
February 12th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
those BTT games will be fully digested by the committee so that's one silver lining.
February 12th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
at this time.
Take care of business. Beat iowa and BEAT ohio
February 12th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
Appreciate that.
For now, it's basketball talk, and we can discuss stuff.
February 12th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
I dont care what the seed is
February 12th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
At The Bracket Project Blog, they’ve ranked 113 Bracketologists, based on performance over the past five years. They've also ranked 61 relatively new Bracketologits, based on their performance over the past two seasons. LINK TO BRACKETOLOGIST RANKINGS
Among Bracketologists whom many of you might recognize, Stewart Mandel, now at The Athletic’s subscription service, is second. ESPN's Joe Lunardi is 40th, Michael Beller of Sports Illustrated is 61st and Jerry Palm at CBS is 82nd.
In the latest Bracket Matrix, updated only at 8:37 AM on February 12, Michigan averages as the third-ranked 9 seed. LINK TO BRACKET MATRIX
February 12th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
In fact, Michigan is the last at-large team with unanimous support in the Matrix. Everyone below them -- and four teams ahead of them -- are left out of at least one bracket. This is a "work left to do" résumé, not a "lock."
February 12th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^
That the 22nd ranked AP team, in this absolutely horrible bubble season, is in the work left to do range.
They'll be fine. They basically need to lose every game to miss the tournament.
February 12th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Then they have work left to do. :) We disagree on the amount of work -- for example, I don't think beating Iowa and then losing 4 in a row is sufficient -- but we seem to agree on the premise.
February 12th, 2018 at 4:16 PM ^
but maybe a very, very small chance that if they win that and lose the next three plus lose to the 12/13 winner they'd be left out.
We're comfortably on the correct side of the bubble with only two more chances for bad losses.
February 12th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
to miss the tournament means they still have work left to do. When you can say they can lose every game and still make the tournament, then they don't have any work to do - they are stricly playing for seeding.
February 12th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^
If Michigan was in a bracket with Xaiver and Auburn as 1/2, they would have a high chance of getting through. But don't sleep on Carolina as a 3. Carolina has a better front court, and Michigan would have to have a great game from Teske. Teske, Simpson, and Poole have all improved since Michigan played them.
February 12th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
I just want to avoid being an 8 or 9 seed. Anything else would be fine.
February 12th, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
For those of you saying 2-2 down the stretch with 2 wins @ home and 2 away losses....that likely puts us at a 6 seed in the Big Ten Tourney with Penn State passing us.