OT: Tesla Model 3
Given that the Big 3 operate in the backyard of Ann Arbor, I wanted to hear everyone's thoughts around Tesla. Do you currently have one? Did you place a reservation for the 3? How do you see the Electric Car market in the future?
Growing up in a GM family (in Michigan), there doesn't seem to be any thought from many of them around Tesla. Living in Chicago, there seems to be a lot of buzz. What say you engineering folks?
Yes, I am aware that username does not check out.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:44 AM ^
Possibly. I've also heard through the auto world grapevine that they didn't do any prototype tooling. Just built the tooling and then started putting vehicles out. No way of verifying that, but it would explain why they need to ramp up instead of just banging out 25,000 a month like traditional OEMs can.
August 1st, 2017 at 12:12 PM ^
I'm not sure how much they have learned, but there are a lot of rumors in regards to the burnout that line employees are feeling manufacturing ~12K Model S and X per month. And Tesla is planning on building 10x that of Model 3's.
Tall order for a company with zero experience in producing that many cars.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:34 PM ^
Tesla will be fine with that. Musk has said many times his goal is not to dominate the sector, but to force the status quo into EV's. He runs a sustainable energy company, not an automotive company. Also: he gets shit done. Do not underestimate.
August 1st, 2017 at 11:20 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^
That was weak on their part. Which Audi?
I love my 2017 Volt. It is surprisingly fun to drive. The electric motors have a ton of low end torque, so it is really quick off the line (though acceleration at higher speeds isn't great). I spend most of my commute below 45 mph anyway though, so no biggie. I love not having to stop at the gas station. I've used only a tank and a half of gas in just over a year with it.
That said, I don't really see any advantage of the model 3 over the Volt. I am not willing to give up the peace of mind of having a gasoline generator for when the battery runs out. I havent' taken any long trips with it, but like the idea that I could. I also love the interior of my Volt: GM has experience with what customers like inside their vehicles. The model 3 looks very spartan inside and I'm not sure they've put much effort into customer research. And I don't think I'd like to have to touch a screen for everything.
I have immense appreciation for Elon Musk. He is pushing the boundaries in so many industries and is unique as a visionary in our age, but in this case, I think the Volt is a better product.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^
My personal favorite of all electrics and/or hybrids is the Volt. It's designed from the ground up to be a plug-in hybrid (vs. taking an existing vehicle and wedging a PHEV powertrain in somehow.) All the best parts of an electric, like never using gas on the daily commute, and all the best parts of a gas car, like range and super-quick fillups. It will take a very long time to solve the problem of how to charge a battery as quickly as filling a gas tank.
I do agree - the Model 3 interior is not remotely the kind of interior I'd want out of a $45K car. And I happen to think touchscreens in cars are dangerous. With regular buttons, you get used to where they are and can feel for them, and you don't need to worry about accidentally pushing something else. With touchscreens, you will never be able to do that, and you have to divert your attention to precisely touch the screen. Sure, you can often talk to the car, but that can be a really frustrating experience, and I don't like doing that much. I'd rather keep singing along to Carry On My Wayward Son while I fiddle with the AC.
August 1st, 2017 at 11:17 AM ^
I think Ford put climate controls exclusively on their touchscreen and few years back, and it was a disaster, and they immediately reversed course. Now, I'm sure Tesla's touchscreen is way more responsive and user friendly than MyFordTouch, but I would share your concerns as well.
I thought the Model 3 also had some knobs on the steering wheel to help with climate control, etc, but I haven't read too much into it. Anyway, I'll reserve judgement for now.
Tesla offers a fundamentally better driving experience. I have only done it once, but frankly: it's faster, it's smoother, it's quieter. It is really fun. The instant torque is a game-changer vs. gasmobiles. There are plenty of negative attitudes out there, but that is because the technology seriously threatens both the oil industry and a lumbering automotive industry that still does not take EV's seriously (at least domestically...ugh).
Solar power is now cheap so you power your car off your home's roof and never have to stop at a gas station again; you get both gas and electric bills out of your life! Again...now on the cheap. As many have said, even if you run an EV with 100% dirty coal (which is on it's own death sprial - good riddance) it still produces far less emmissions than a similar gas car. EV's also have far less maintenance and are much safer in crashes.
Sometimes things change and this particular one comes just in time; I am 100% on the bandwagon and like it here. Fossil fuels powered civilization's rise, but they must now be left behind. Tesla is proof this process will involve no sacrifice, but rather will improve lives. Come aboard!
I think the S is one of the best looking cars out there (the x is fugly), and the performance in driving range and performance and the utility of the vehicle has done so many things to squelch false assumptions about what electric cars need to be. Working for a battery supplier, this has greatly helped the industry.
On the other hand, they bought up the company that is making our manufacturing line and pulled all the resources off of anything but Tesla. This has made this year especially hard and annoying. I have concerns overall about the speed they are bringing the 3 to market without a lot of the manufacturing know how for high volume cars. I think the 3 will be a great car, but I'll wait for a couple years to let the kinks get worked out.
in Michigan. So, the government makes laws that make it difficult for them to come here. Michigan knows where its bread is buttered.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
It's their dealers. They've been the ones in Lansing (and other state capitals in the U.S.) lobbying to keep Tesla out.
The Big 3 don't own the dealerships and can't sell directly to customers under current state law. They'd love to. If anything, they're encouraging Tesla on that level.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
As for disposal of batteries, that isn't talked about much.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 10:08 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 10:28 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 10:13 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^
I have a first day pre-order for a Model 3. They are going to burn through their full tax credit in second quarter of next year, so it is very unlikely that I would get the full credit, only half, when my number comes up for the AWD version. I have to decide if AWD or $3,750 is more important, because, at current estimates, I could get the RWD while getting the full $7,500 credit begining of next year.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
It's always good to push technology, but I would buy a Bolt 100/100 times before trying to get a model 3.
Sure, the 3 seems like a great car, but I like my car to, you know, work. I'll believe that Tesla "sold" 500,000 model 3s (a deposit =!= sale) when they build and deliver # 500k. Right now they have terrible labor issues at their factory, with lots of injuries. The Model X was a disaster in terms of important things working - like the doors or the seats. Panel gaps are awful... can you imagine the shit storm if GM built a car that didn't have working doors? https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=14&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjj39KXnrbVAhXM8YMKHUJcCuIQFghmMA0&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wired.com%2F2016%2F04%2Fteslas-model-x-bigger-problems-faulty-falcon-doors%2F&usg=AFQjCNEfI6362ybqW8OXqFuZbKSfTD2BYg
Tesla is sexy and all, but if you want a working car, go buy a Bolt.
(Disclaimer, I work in the auto industry. GM is a customer, as is Tesla)
Now, big picture, I think that PHEVs are much more realistic options than full EVs. If we had a place to charge it (Oh, that other infrastructure problem, seeing as we live in Chicago and don't have a garage) my wife would have a Volt today.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:31 AM ^
The Model X was a disaster, but it's a low volume super-luxury vehicle, and they took serious criticism in the press for it.
I have a Ford C-Max and one of the doors got "stuck", and a recall was issued related to the problem. Did I ever hear a peep about it in the press? Nope, because no one cares about the C-Max. The Big 3 get plenty of passes as well.
August 1st, 2017 at 12:11 PM ^
Musk totally owned up to the mistakes on the X, admitting "hubris" time and again. All indications are that pain will dramatically help the model 3's production ramp.
Yes, the rollout of the Model X was fraught with delays and technical issues, but that's in the rear view mirror. Here in CA, I commute on I-5 in south Orange County about sixty miles total per day, and I'm seeing Model X's all over the place, it's simply the hottest SUV out there right now, it's the ultimate status symbol for wealthy soccer moms.
Tesla sales in California account for about 45% of all Tesla's sales in the US, hence seeing a ton of Model S's and X's every day on the freeway. Right now, Tesla is The Luxury car/SUV to own to turn heads, and it's not because they are environmentally trendy. It's because they are effing beautiful cars that require almost zero maintenance, and they out perform almost all of the big engine muscle cars out there.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^
Tesla has sold a lot of Model S's because they're really good cars. They'll sell even more Model 3s because it's a good car and people want to buy the Tesla brand, as opposed to the Chevy Bolt which is a good car, but people don't want to buy Chevy's.
The tax credit is going to start it's sunset period after the Model 3 goes into mass production. The credit expiring will be a huge speed bump, but Tesla will have gained a huge advantage over other competitors by putting 10s of thousands of autonomous vehicles on the road. They will be able to log, perhaps, 1,000,000 autonomous miles a day. The big cavaet to that, is I think those will be mostly highway and rural miles, but that may change.
I suspect Tesla's market value is not about EVs, it's about autonomous travel. And perhaps some of their other plays.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^
Teslas are already a huge part of the market in Austin. I see the higher end models everywhere down here. They are sexy cars, silent. There already is a buzz around the company and the release of the Model 3 will exponentially increase their footprint nationwide, assuming Tesla can hit demand. The first new car that I buy will almost certainly be a Tesla.
But I think new cars are a stupid waste of money. I'm going to keep saving heavily for another decade or so before I buy anything new.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:31 AM ^
Use wind energy to compress the hydrogen. Practically no carbon footprint but the oil companies will never let compressed hydrogen station exist. Sad!
August 1st, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
Last I checked, this was hugely expensive. I think that's why it's not happening.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:52 AM ^
Hydrogen cells are just a different energy storage medium. The batteries that Tesla is creating are plenty efficient to power electric cars. Hydrogen cells may be feasible in the future, but there is no reason to think they are the path of the present.
Do your research on the (currently) cheapest way to generate hydrogen on a large scale. Spoiler alert: it's from natural gas. Hence the oil companies are big supporters of hydrogen fuel cell technologies, because it has the potential to keep them producing fossil fuels (with carbon capture at the point of refinement) long after gasoline engines will have run their course in, say, fifty years or so when the effects of global warming will compel their phasing out.
But it can be done through electrolysis by using water to strip out the H molecules. Of course it takes energy but that is where you would use electricity produced from wind and solar. It can be done but you would need a rather large plant to produce enough H.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:40 AM ^
I just produced my own natural gas. Hard to believe its environmentally friendly, certainly not at the room level.
August 1st, 2017 at 12:19 PM ^
Look at my avatar. I'm just daring y'all to pull that finger. Go ahead, you know you want to pull it. Pull the finger.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
This is a good discussion...unless I missed it, though, I've yet to see a Tesla owner respond.
Great feedback from the Volt drivers above...our next car purchase will either be a newer Volvo wagon or a Volt/3/hybrid. Can't justify it yet as I'm working from home but very curious about them.
August 1st, 2017 at 10:56 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^
Thank you for taking time out of your presumably very busy day to respond to my comment.
Your feedback is invaluable.
August 1st, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 10:10 PM ^
Damn, you sold me. Good comment.
August 1st, 2017 at 11:05 AM ^
Once they can do 550 mile range and fully recharge in 90 seconds without losing 7% range per year they will do better. The current problem is Teslas are not environmentally friendly. Making just one Tesla battery creates as much CO2 as 8 years of gas car driving. Not to mention how toxic mining the rare earth minerals is. That being said I'm not CO2 cult guy. Electic cars will become more a part of the market, not because they are environmentally friendly but because it's a good option for more domestic/urban style drivers.
August 1st, 2017 at 11:36 AM ^
August 1st, 2017 at 11:44 AM ^
My (very bad) math estimates about $10 to charge a Model X (SUV), while a comparable luxury SUV costs about $35 to $40 (in my area). Now, a nicely equipped X is about $100K, but an Audi Q7 is $70K. If you can save $25 to $30 per 300 miles and get a "cool" car that everyone will talk about for $30K more, why wouldn't you?
August 1st, 2017 at 11:48 AM ^
Good point on the cost saving. I don't think the X looks cool; probably the ugliest vehicle on the road other than Pontiac Aztek. Model S looks pretty good, like a wider Mazda 3.
August 1st, 2017 at 11:08 AM ^
How is there no thought of Tesla by GM people in Michigan? Tesla has a larger market cap (which is crazy) and traditional automakers will not be able to compete with Tesla in the near future, since Tesla can make batteries much cheaper and isn't saddled with a dealer network (I know they are franchised).
That said, I didn't make a reservation for the 3. I'm probably buying a new car in the next 1-2 years and want a fun manual car, because I keep my cars for a while (say 7-9 years) and think this is my last opportunity before all electric/ semi-autonomous cars take over (and I'll be old).
"Not being saddled with a dealer network" isn't necessarily an unadulterated advantage. It also means they don't have a network of garages where you can get your car fixed. And Tesla is going to badly need one if they succeed in putting a mass-market car out without fixing their quality issues. Further, you can take a Chevy into a Ford dealership for a great many things, but a Tesla can only be fixed at a Tesla store.
The advantage of being able to make batteries much more cheaply will be mostly negated by one word: suppliers. Henry Ford found out ages ago that vertical integration is kind of a poor idea. When the OEMs start buying batteries en masse from suppliers who specialize in batteries, Tesla will be at a disadvantage.
There's plenty of thought about Tesla by the Big 3, believe me, but nobody is shitting their pants over them, either. Tesla's market cap is huge based on the potential that Tesla might one day make the kind of profits the OEMs have been making for nearly a decade.
August 1st, 2017 at 11:15 AM ^
You need snow tires and AWD for winter. Just have to be careful because of the torque but they are ok in snow.
August 1st, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^