Gambling odds on Michigan starting QB week 1
As a gambling degenerate, I always have my eye on a number of different offshore sites looking at new postings.
Bookmaker.eu just posted some "College Football Special Props", and they have odds on Week 1 starting QBs for a number of teams including Michigan. I found the odds MUCH closer than I would have anticipated.
Michigan Starting QB Week 1
Speight -105 (51.22% implied probability, meaning you need to bet $105 to win $100)
Peters +110 (47.62% implied probability, meaning a $100 bet wins $110)
Almost a coinflip. This does not mean they have inside info or anything, and this isn't a Vegas prop it's only offshore, but setting close to even was quite surprising to me. I would have had Speight closer to 60-70%.
but it wont be enough they will leave with a taint one step below the one left by Aaron Hernandez.
My apologies if that offends victims of Urbz taint.
Just making it real.
If Harbaugh thinks enough of Peters that he'd replace Speight after a bad game, then I think Peters would start the season.
You mean if he gets hit while he is throwing?
Peters pulls a Brady. We never see Bledsoe again. That is the way of football.
I will take your farm... at least 1% of it. That is worth the bet.
Wellllllllllll if you're feeling lucky, O'Korn is +1600 (didn't include him in the OP cause I think we all know here without multiple injuries that's not happening)
Hmmm...for that kind of payout I might just have to go all Tonya Harding on Speight and Peters towards the end of fall camp.
This just means they have a big bet on Peters, and they have to even it out with some money on Speight now.
The reality is that anyone betting against Speight at this point is pretty close to off his or her rocker.
If they move the line a lot to even out the money on a prop bet like this, that just guarantees they'll take a loss. These kind of bets usually have a low maximum. Having inside knowledge gives a bettor a big edge.
I just checked the site I used. Michigan is 15-1 to win the CFP. Tied for 7th favorite with Penn State after usual suspects Bama, OSU, FSU, and Oklahoma, plus USC and Auburn thrown in this year. That's... shorter than I would have expected.
Clemson, defending national champion, is 25-1, for some persepctive.
They are the new ND to me. To hell with Paterno and his dead Dad. Somethings can never be forgotten or forgiven.
Speight has the experience and seems to be more of a vocal presence than Peters, but Peters has more arm talent. I'd pick Speight to get the nod if a gun was to my head, although with fall camp around the corner I wouldn't totally rule out Peters.
Would putting a gun to Santa's head qualify as "naughty"?
Lmao. I like how you think. But I promise you I'm not bettiing near enough money to move lines or make that plan worthwhile
Speight has great qualities. You can't beat game experience. O'Korn has game experience and is a pretty darn good athlete...and then we have the promise of Peters. I like this group.
Talent > Game experience
I know most fans won't like my opinion on this but, Speight is a day 3 prospect whereas Peters has the talent to be a top 10 pick. I conceed that we haven't seen Peters in action yet and he may not live up to the hype, but if he does, Michigan will definitley be in the CFP.
At worst? I disagree--he could easily be a fifth or 6th rounder. He is old for his class (will be turning 23 before the end of the year) and has had recurring injury issues. His play was poor against quality opponents (whether that was because of injuries in the case of Iowa, FSU, and to a lesser extent OSU and a small sample size of Wisconsin and Colorado or a real issue is unknown).
Is Speight that much better than a guy like Cook, Sudfeld, Allen (just looking at the 2016 draft).
There are usually 5-7 quarterbacks taken in the first 3 rounds.
You honestly can't see him being worse than the 5th qb taken?
Wow! Just wow!
Reread your statement a few times.
Freshmen last year and tied or out played Speight. None of them beat out a starter for a game opener. Though freshmen are getting more play. I like Peters over any of those guys except maybe Herbert (as a Sophomore - Peters has more upside and talent compared year on year ... IMO.)
You like Peters over Sam Darnold? The same Sam Darnold that is being talked about as the #1 pick next year? I like the kid too, but the hype train is getting out of control.
out year. He slumps this year with half the line and a major target gone. I don't take anything away for him by saying Peters has game. Hopefully Speight doesn't give him his shot like Browne did at USC.
to start game one, no question. The question is who will be the starter vs osu. That I believe is a toss up.
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The entire season (if he stays healthy). Peters will get some decent exposure, mostly in garbage time. Speight will be better this year than last. Last year he was good. This year, he can be really good to even great at times.
GO BLUE!!
I don't like Speight but he's going to be the guy come Sept. 2. If the opponent were anybody else (cupcake) other than Florida, maybe Peters sees the field. I just can't see him being tossed to the wolves in his first game. If Speight has a terrible performance to open the season, I think that'll be the last we see of him.
going to Vegas for Mayweather fight?
This is Harbaugh were talking about. The guy who has the best camp will play. There is no loyalty to the upper classman, none for the returning starter. Competition will determine who plays. And since none of us are in the room or at practice our opinions are based on nothing but speculation and bias.
After what we have actually seen, namely the spring game which admittedly is a miniscule part of the total, Peters is ahead of Speight.
Peters is not ahead of Speight. Not even a little bit. We've been told that from people with far more inside knowledge than just watching the spring game.
Nothing is always a non-zero possibility with offshore gambling.
My money's on Speight. His fadder was a mudder.
against Florida. If he plays less than well, win or lose, I expect Peters will get a big shot to prove himself over the next two games. That could mean starting or more likely just some non garbage time snaps.
If Speight plays well against Florida, then he isn't being displaced, again barring injury.