Oregon Primer
2016-2017 Oregon Ducks
So this team is difficult to gauge by computer metrics alone. They are an efficient offense and a pretty stout defense. Per Kenpom, they are the #16 offense and #23 defense in the country. They aren’t really old and they aren’t really tall. They don’t rely on 2’s, 3’s, or FT’s with any sort of regularity. They steal the ball quite a bit and they don’t turn it over much. They are good at offensive rebounding but not so good at stopping offensive rebounds. They also don’t foul much. So yeah. These metrics are all based on the fact that they had 6’10” #10 shot blocker, top 300 offensive and defensive rebounder, and their third most efficient player when counting more than 20% usage – Chris Boucher. So, what do these Oregon Ducks look like without him? Here’s their last three games.
(18) Arizona 83-80 L
(118) Iona – 93-77 W
(33) Rhode Island – 75-72 W
From March 10th to March 20th, Michigan is #6 in adjusted efficiency. Oregon is #33 coming in right behind Bucknell. FWIW Louisville is #36 and Oklahoma State is #23 during the same time span. The depth chart over the last five games looks like this –
(player number, name, measurements, description, (2PT/3PT/FT))
#3, PG – Peyton Pritchard, 6’2” 200 LB FR, good distributor and decent shooter (46/37/71)
#2, SG I – Casey Benson, 6’3” 185 LB JR, very efficient at scoring and splits almost half the minutes with Dylan Ennis. (50/42/79)
#31, SG II – Dylan Ennis, 6’2” 196 LB SR, moves around from the 1, 2, or 3 spot, not great at any one single thing, has a proclivity to turnovers. (47/37/75)
#5, SF – Tyler Dorsey, 6’4” 195 LB SO, very efficient wing that takes a majority of 3PT shots. (53/40/73)
#24, PF – Dillon Brooks, 6’7” 225 LB JR, very efficient shooter and also leads Oregon in assist rate. (55/41/73)
#1, C – Jordan Bell, 6’9” 225 LB JR, super efficient at the rim, one of the best offensive and defensive rebounders in the country, blocks well, steals frequently, and doesn’t foul much. (65/15/70)
Oregon has really only used one other player much the last five games. He’s a big fella…
#35, C- Kavell Bigby-Williams, 6’11” 230 LB JR, not enough minutes logged to rank him among shot blockers, but he is a threat to do just that. (48/0/62)
They do move the ball around well from the little bit I’ve watched of them. Will be interesting to see how Beilein plans for this game. I’m not an analyst, just a data guy so feel free to educate me on the strengths and weaknesses we will face on Thursday. Go Blue!
March 20th, 2017 at 11:20 PM ^
Notre Dame says "Hold my beer..."
March 20th, 2017 at 11:26 PM ^
There is just no excuse for thess uniforms. Beyond hideous.
March 21st, 2017 at 10:02 AM ^
I didn't even know there were that many colors of ugly green.
Kudos to ND for rounding them all up and putting them all in one place.
and these uniforms were some sort of penance handed down from the Pope.
March 20th, 2017 at 11:30 PM ^
They were so bright you could easily see their reflections on the floor. I have never seen a jersey color showing up as a reflection.
March 20th, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^
The Brooks kid, this guy is legit.
But, more importantly, play our game.
We got this one.
March 21st, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^
Brooks is legit but if he struggles early he will get frustrated. When he gets frustarted he tends to play out of control and take really questionable shots along with his fair share of charges (as long as some one is willing to get in front of the freight train).
This is why I think whoever gets the assignment of slowing him down is the key to our success in this game. Assuming it's DJ at the start I think his length will drive Brooks crazy and get him frustrated early hopefully resulting in foul trouble.
March 20th, 2017 at 11:56 PM ^
and this game will come down to Wilson and Wagner's ability to make plays on offense. As the repeating theme that is developing over the past 10-15 games. Very few teams have a solution for our bigs. Walton needs to do what he does and with the lack of height on Oregon, Robinson should be able to get his shot off.
I really like this match, especially with Oregon playing without Boucher.....
Very few teams have a solution for our bigs
OMG. These are words I never thought I'd hear in 2016-2017.
Like President Tr . . . never mind.
Yeah, it is scary to think how far Wilson and Wagner have come.....
As for your second comment....... ahhhhhh no politcs......right?
and give Michigan the edge they may or may not need to win. So lets yell Go Blue and hello elite eight or whatever the next round is called.
Not in KC. There will be a lot of Kansas fans rooting to face any team but Michigan.
Still don't get why the selection committee puts high seed teams in brackets that have a significant probability of giving that team a home court advantage for multiple games.
significant argument that they earned "home court advantage" for multiple games based on their superior record?
This doesn't defy my argument but it is strange that if Michigan or Purdue (or Louisville) were the #1 seed in the Midwest and Kansas were #2 or 3, the Kansas City site would still be an advantage for them.
The tables could be turned if the Midwest regional is ever in Detroit, Chicago, Indy or Cleveland when a B1G team is a high or #1 seed.
March 21st, 2017 at 10:12 AM ^
Yet the #7 seeded Gamecocks got their first 2 games in Greenville.
Don't get me wrong I hope their home court advantage helped them beat Dook.
I just think they should keep home court advantage to a miniumum. The tourney is tough enough already.
March 21st, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
March 21st, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
Even if you play in an overrated conference like the ACC and got your #1 seeding by beating up on a lot of creampuffs and overranked teams?
/rhetorical
March 21st, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
March 21st, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
Maybe they're still bitter about 2013, but as a fan I'd be hoping for revenge and figuring that Michigan has to cool off at some point. Even though that's not necessarily true.
Not so sure Kansas fans will be against us.
We are the #7 seed and Oregon is still a #3 and PAC 12 Champion; not all fans get really deep into statistical trends and people may just look at the seeds.
Plus, I bet a significant portion of them want revenge from the 2013 Sweet Sixteen, lol.
I'm no basketball strategist . . . that's why Beilein is a coach and I'm not! Still, I really like what Mo said about Louisvile. Let the game come to you, and take what they give you. Looking at their size (or lack thereof), I think that the three point line will open up quite a bit. Which opens up things for both Moe and DJ. But Michigan is so good, let Oregon pick their poison. Michigan will take the open shot, wherever it is. Against Louisville, Pitino said, we're not going to let you shoot threes, and so that opened things up inside. I don't think that Oregon has the length and quickness to do that. But they can't defend everything, and something will be open. I absolutely love that as a team, Michigan doesn't depend on just one star. Moe has been off. Walton has been off. Irvin has been off. DJ has been off. Last game, Robinson was way off. Rahkman isn't flashy. But all of them have their day.
Regarding Donnal, he will never be great. But as a role player, he gives Moe (and less, DJ) a breather and a bit of time off and protection against fouling out.
Regarding Duncan Robinson, it would be great to see Oregon forget about him, and for Dunc to have his day, raining threes over a smaller and slower defense than Louisville.
Stay out of foul trouble and we got this.
Looks like we've got a pretty good size advantage bewteen Wagner and Wilson. I think we pound it inside like we did against Louisville and then when they adjust to that, we push it outside and rain threes on them. The way we're playing right now, I think we can beat anyone. Go Blue!
March 21st, 2017 at 10:08 AM ^
make him work his ass off at the other end; make him chase our shooters at the three-point line, and if he swiches on to one of our bigs, back him down. Make him spend energy on D, and switch guys on him when he is on O.
March 21st, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
I like ours and am not overly worried about theirs. To win games in the tourney, you have to play at or near the top of your game, but I see the Ducks having a lot of trouble with Mo and DJ without their big; both of these guys are really coming on, and I could see both of them going off Thursday.
March 21st, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^
Guy has the ability to go off. Good 3 point shooter. MAAR needs to be on him like white on rice. Our bigs are matchup nightmares for them. I'm counting on our coach to scheme like the master he is. See u in KC
Gotta feeling this one wont be as close as people are predicting (Either way)... So lets just jump out to a quick 20+ point lead m'kay?