Early Vegas line for OK State game is "pick-em"
Believe that spread will move a few points towards us, but I'd be throwing my kids tuition $$ at that line.
Michigan is spent or not
DUring our 2014 run, Beilein had an amazingly impressive resume when given 3 or more days to prepare for a team. Not sure if that still holds true, but I have faith that this coaching staff can dissect OSU and find advantages to exploit in 4 days.
That being said, we've shown now that we can play defense to keep us in a game when the offense is scuffling.
Still mad at Sparty for screwing us the fuck over.
Michigan has way more fans, this will be 3 pts in UM's favor by friday.
with who will actual win.
A big fan advantage..If its sizeable can realllllly help a team in the tournament...momentum wise
He's talking about people who will bet. Michigan won't have an advantage in fans, I'd assume the Louisville fans will root for OSU, and they will be the large majority there.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^
has nothing to do with whether we will win, only on how much is being bet on one team as opposed to another. The oddmakers are not evaluating the relative strengths of the teams like Ken Pom, but setting the line to maximize their take (though the two track to a large degree).
March 12th, 2017 at 10:56 PM ^
March 13th, 2017 at 12:15 AM ^
I think that's what he said.
March 13th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
Yeah, I think what he wanted to say is that linemakers have also heard of fancystats and been using them long before Michael Lewis wrote Moneyball.
prepping us. That SFA offense was scary last year.
Think we pick and roll them into submission.
I took a look at their schedule and it doesn't look to me that they beat anyone. They got drilled by Carolina, lost to Maryland, lost to WVU, lost to Baylor, lost to ISU three times, lost to KU twice, and beat Arkansas (their best win?).
I don't see a really quality win there. They get a lot of points (~40 ppg) from a couple munchkin guards.
Meanwhile, UM has beaten PU (twice), Wisky (twice), MSU, and Minny just in the last month or so.
That's what she said!
Their 10 of 11 streak included that win along w/ nine other wins against lower ranked teams while the loss came at the hands of 3-seed Baylor.
Okla St lost its last three, but against Big 12 Tourney winner Iowa St twice and once against Kansas.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/197/oklahoma-stat…
Our path to the B1G Tourney title of Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin was about the most difficult that could be constructed from this year's teams.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
March 12th, 2017 at 10:19 PM ^
if not THE worst, for a major college program in the tournament. Ours is much better, and our offense, as we are currently playing, is comparable to theirs.
Shoulder chips and all.
Kinda surprising line as this will essentially be a home game for Michigan
March 12th, 2017 at 10:01 PM ^
I see Michigan -2 on the Yahoo Sports app.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:14 PM ^
March 12th, 2017 at 10:26 PM ^
Does anyone know when Bovada usually opens up bets for the first round? There are quite a few bets I want to make before the line moves much.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:33 PM ^
They piled up serious offensive stats against cupcakes, but they are an extremely beatable team. They finished 9-9 in a not-that-great conference, and outside of a win over West Virginia haven't done squat against highly ranked teams.
March 12th, 2017 at 11:13 PM ^
A lot like Michigan, though, they have played much better at the end of the season than at the beginning. They started league play 0-6 and went 9-3 to close out the regular season.
March 12th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
The Big 12 was the #1 conference in KenPom this year. 6/10 teams made the tournament. Further, KenPom has OSU as having played the #1 overall schedule, including the #6th ranked offensive schedule, which has to play into those defensive numbers.
Furthermore, Oklahoma State is a terrible matchup for Michigan. Their #1-ranked offense consists not just of good three-point shooting, which is relatively unaffected by the opponent, but great offensive rebounding. They're sixth in the country with a 38% offensive rebound rate, and that drops only to 35.3% when you look at Big 12 games. Michigan, of course, surrenders a goodly number of offensive rebounds.
On defense? Sure, they're terrible, but they're worst at the one thing that Michigan does poorly -- they're 334th in the country at FTA/FGA. Michigan's offense does not particularly take advantage of foul-prone teams. They're #108 in the country -- above-average -- at 3PA/FGA. Now, that could be because their interior defense is so bad that teams don't bother shooting threes, but it could also be that closing out on the perimeter is a team strength. (Reassuringly, they do go up in conference play, from 34.3% to 37.7%). Anyway, that shows that they've struggled against teams that drive the basket -- not something Michigan does with regularity.
Anyway, Michigan certainly can win this game -- after this last week, I wouldn't pick against them for the rest of the year -- but it's definitely no gimme. KenPom has a 78-77 Michigan victory (51% probability) with only 64 possessions; basically, no defense by either team. That doesn't feel far off, despite the defensive improvement Michigan has shown over the past month.
To win this game, I think Michigan needs Irvin and MAAR to continue the drive-to-the-basket game of which they've recently shown flashes. They also need Derrick Walton to be crazy-good short-guy defensive rebound machine. :-) These are possible outcomes, but I certainly wouldn't wager the college fund on them. :-)
March 13th, 2017 at 12:50 AM ^
Oklahoma State only has one win against a high quality team all year. We have three just in our last three games. They finished their season on a 3 gaming LOSING streak. They're not exactly hot.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:42 PM ^
March 13th, 2017 at 12:18 AM ^
Come on, man. I'm in a good mood! Don't harsh the mellow.