Michigan Gets Oklahoma State In Indy
[Paul Sherman]
Michigan's a seven seed in Indianapolis for the first round of the NCAA tournament, drawing 10-seed Oklahoma State. Okie State is a lot like Michigan: they're the #1 offense in the country on Kenpom... and the #133 defense. They're either really hot or not so hot depending on how you look at it:
- Okie State has won 10 of their last 14, but...
- They've lost their last three.
They're #23 overall on Kenpom.
Should Michigan advance they're highly likely to take on #2 Louisville, which is basically the same kind of team Louisville usually is: high pressure defense, big trees who block stuff on the inside, buckets of OREBs. Kenpom has them #6 in the country, so they're not an unfair draw for a 2. Unfortunate, perhaps.
Good news: it's a Friday/Sunday session.
#2 seed in the B1G tourney, makes it to the final game. Minnie gets the 5 seed though.
if all you are going on is RPI (UW tied for 32nd with Maryland) and SOS (Wisconsin's was 83rd,) then their seed makes sense. But ours doesn't, 30th RPI and 26th SOS, both better than Maryland's, yet Maryland gets the 6th and we get the 7th because of a game in early January?
we ended up 25th in RPI with a SOS likely better than 29th (but the NCAA site with updated RPI doesn't show it).
There is absolutely no justifying these Big Ten seeds with any consistent logic or metrics other than to assume the committee had these seeds locked in three days ago. Where these teams were three days ago (before we beat Minnesota and before Maryland lost their first game and before Wisconson made the title game) is much more in line with where we all ended up.
March 13th, 2017 at 11:25 AM ^
If Minnesota and Wisconsin had finished reasonably close in RPI and SOS, the head-to-head games would move Wisconsin ahead of Minnesota. But the RPI wasn't that close (20-32) and the SOS was strongly in Minnesota's favor (17 to 83.) Minnesota was 8-7 against teams in the top 50 and 13-9 against the top 100. I think we're undervaluing them because we beat them once and should have beat them twice and their style of basketball is not pretty. But they're a legit 5 seed.
Wisconsin was 9-0 against RPI SUB 150 teams. Five wins were against RPI 300+ teams. Minnesota only played 5 SUB 150 teams, and none were 300+. The message is clear. Schedule better non-conference games.
We were 7-8 against the top 50 and 14-11 against the top 100. If you flip that OT loss @Minn to us, we would have been a five seed. It seems like the committee saw us as the 8 seed in the BTT and thought of us as the 8th best team. We were actually tied for 5th. A fifth place team winning a major conference should have been given more respect and a better seed.
the BTT having lost 5 of 7, including home losses to NW and Iowa. They were looking iffy and the committee didn't even like them before that. Remember when they did the top 16 seeds in Feb and Wisconsin was left out despite being 20-3 or something like that? If they committee thought they were a 5 then, it could make sense they thought they were an 8 after their slide to end the regular season. But after beating Minnesota in their last game and advancing to the finals only to remain an 8, is criminal.
EDIT: Sorry this was a response to A Lot of Milk
I'm glad it's a Friday game and we get the extra day of rest after this weekend.
Garbage...should be a 6-seed. But whatever, go win the damn thing.
The one silver lining is Michigan has shown a renewed defensive effort these past weeks, and I've seen enough of OSU to know they live and die outside. So if the perimeter defense holds up, this isn't a bad matchup for M.
OSU is. They only shoot the 181st most threes in the country. My larger analysis is above but they have a stud PG that breaks down defenses, and either scores, gets fouled, draws the defense to up up offensive rebounds (they are animals on the glass as the 6th best o-rebounding team in the country), or kicks it out to their excellent 3pt shooters. They're like Minnesota if Nate Mason was better at passing their wings were better shooters. They're not the best offensive team in the country because they only do one thing well. They do a lot of things well especially the two things we struggle most with: dribble penetration and offensive rebounding. It's gonna be tough to stop them. Donlon has his hands full. I expect a shootout. Should be fun, but not a favorable matchup.
We had a better RPI and SOS than Maryland and we won the Big 10 tournament, so naturally, they get the 6 seed and we get the 7th?!?
...as so many have noted.
Perhaps:
Wiisc 5
Purdue 5
Maryland 6
Minn 7
Mich 7
Nwstrn 9
MSU 11 play in game
Do we know if we're in Session 1 or 2 yet?
Whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Hollis?
/gives stinkeye
With the catastrophe at his feet how is Hollis still employed?
Nicole Auerbach is being a total homer and has us in the Final Four against UNC.
We'll know how good Michigan really is if they're fortunate enough to make the second round. ACC is the best conference in the country this year, and Louisville is one of its best teams.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2017/3/12/14902254/ncaa-tour…
Minnesota #18. In the country, not in the Big Ten.
Maryland #23, Michigan #27, Wisky #29, NW #32, MSU #35.
SMU #21, VaTech #36. OSU #37, Wichita State #38 (!). Marquette #39.
So -- Michigan has wins home vs. #16. netural vs. #16, neutral #18, netural vs. #21, home vs. #29, neutral vs #29, home vs. #35, neutral vs. #39, and losses @ #11, @#26 USC (NTUSC), and at home vs #36, and no bad losses.
Meanwhile, MSU has wins @#18, vs. #18, home vs. #27, home vs. #29, home vs. #32, netural vs. #38. They have great losses, though: neutral vs. #5 Kentucky, neutral vs. #6 Arizona, @ #7 Duke, neutral vs. #13 Baylor, home vs. #16, @ #16, neutral vs. #18, @ #23, @ #27 (by 29 points!). Oh, and they lost to Northeastern. Yep, nearly as good indeed.
I think this ridiculousness starts with Minnesota's crazy seedijng. As soon as you start to believe that Ted Valentine's Minnesota Gophers are the #18 team in the country, everything else makes sense. (I mean, hey -- they did beat Vanderbilt, which is apparenty a thing. And Arkansas. Gopherz!) Clearly, MSUs two wins over Minnesota were a sign that Izzo's Weird Guys are really a great team, and not a suggestion that one shouldn't say "ohh, shiny record, inexcusable refereeing, no non-conference wins, GOPHERZ!"
There's a silver lining here -- Michigan's improbable run began with Sir Maverick Morgan's blesséd white-collar comments. Here's hoping John Beilein can convince Michigan that the committee disrespekted them and that nobody believes in them, cliché, cliché. For whatever reason, it seems to work with this team. By looking at Michigan's résumé and not even seeing a top-25 team, I think the committee may have helped him make that argument.
March 13th, 2017 at 12:09 AM ^
nnfm
March 12th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^
there is no chance of underestimating a 10 seed. It would just be nice if it was a fairly seeded 10, instead of a team that could easily be an 8.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:22 PM ^
Mark Hollis wins Douche Canoe of the weekend honors.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:31 PM ^
This is honestly one of the worst brackets I've ever seen.
I know every year people are going to say teams should have been higher, lower, not gotten in, gotten in, and so on. It comes with the tournament. But most years there's a few things you can point to and at least if you squint see the logic. And usually it's only a few things.
This year's seeding is downright awful and even if you try to follow their logic you end up with completely different results. Hollis should be ashamed of having his name tied to this. It's an absolute disgrace. Five years ago he was considred a "hot" AD for having basketball and football going and having some innovative ideas (outdoor hockey games!). Now he's dealing with multiple rape allegations, an allegation that a coach interefered with investigation of some of those allegations, and major sports seasons that are crashing. Add this train wreck to his list of those abominations.
Their run is over in nearly every way, and I hope he gets a ton of heat for this seeding. He won't than happens any other year, but he should.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:44 PM ^
On the one hand osu lost three straight, on the other hand it was three straight games against top 25 teams and they lost by 3 to iowa state once and by 5 to kansas. That isn't exactly a sign of playing poorly. They've gone over 80 points in most of their games this year, will have to play defense or it could turn into a ucla situation where we score 50 in a half and lose
March 12th, 2017 at 11:53 PM ^
Legendary basketball teams don't become legends by easy runs to the final four, but by grinding out amazing games against the best competition. We got this
But I'm just happy as hell we're in the tournament again.
The NCAAT is so much more fun when we're at the dance. After all those sad, awful years, it's great to be regular participants again.
Thank you Coach Beilein! Now let's go get some!
Go Blue!
Apparently we were only the 3rd-best #7 seed in the eyes of the committee.
NCAA just put out the 1-68 seed list. Here it is: pic.twitter.com/PKT1jhIWNL
— Luke Winn (@lukewinn) March 12, 2017
MSU at #35 is the funniest thing I've seen all month
there isn't a single objective ranking system that has them within 12 spots of a 35 ranking. In no universe do that deserve that ranking.
Let's Go Blue! One game at a time.
People in Louisville don't actually seem all that concerned. They think the big ten is trash (probably true) so it while its nice Michigan has won games they haven't played an elite team since UCLA.
March 13th, 2017 at 10:42 AM ^
March 13th, 2017 at 11:09 AM ^
March 13th, 2017 at 11:37 AM ^
There's a guy (previous page) who says he's a Michigan alum but then is rooting for Louisville over us . . . huh?
Kentucky is a 2 seed and is looking at a potential matchup against kenpom number 8 Wichita State and Arizona is looking at #14 St. Mary's in the second round. The 2 seeds got unusually screwed this year so Louisville could argue that they have it better than 2 of the other 3. They only have to play one of us and Ok St so it doesn't really matter to them that we both got screwed a little bit.
Don't worry about the seedings or who you're playing. Just go out, play the game and win. Simple. They all put on their shorts the same way we do. WIN THE GAME
Nice 'Big Mitch' reference...... That was classic!
for the players. But it's our job to worry about who we're playing!
March 13th, 2017 at 12:17 PM ^
love the comments/analysis
if you're interested - www.pistolsfiringblog.com will have a ton of analysis leading up to Friday
Good luck to you guys. This game has the makings of a 100-99 outcome... last team with the ball wins
March 13th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^
MSU, should have been a play in game. They have an easier first round match than us!
OK State has a high scoring offense but their defense is dreadful. They shouldn't be able to stop us from doing anything we want to do. We should, however, be able to stop them with our defensive resurgence of late. I like Michigan in this matchup. By no means is OK St. a cupcake but we can score at the same rate they do. And we can do it more efficiently. The team will be well-rested and should come out firing on all cylinders.
One other tidbit......Mark Donnal should keep his porno goatee for the tournament.
in the MSU games. Not sure if you're implying that Irvin was responsible for his inefficiency but it was DJ. Irvin guarded Langford/Ellis/McQuaid along with Robinson and Irvin was responsible for one of the open look daggers McQuaid got that he shouldn't have gotten in the loss to them.
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