Michigan Gets Oklahoma State In Indy

Submitted by Brian on March 12th, 2017 at 6:00 PM

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[Paul Sherman]

Michigan's a seven seed in Indianapolis for the first round of the NCAA tournament, drawing 10-seed Oklahoma State. Okie State is a lot like Michigan: they're the #1 offense in the country on Kenpom... and the #133 defense. They're either really hot or not so hot depending on how you look at it:

  • Okie State has won 10 of their last 14, but...
  • They've lost their last three.

They're #23 overall on Kenpom.

Should Michigan advance they're highly likely to take on #2 Louisville, which is basically the same kind of team Louisville usually is: high pressure defense, big trees who block stuff on the inside, buckets of OREBs. Kenpom has them #6 in the country, so they're not an unfair draw for a 2. Unfortunate, perhaps.

Good news: it's a Friday/Sunday session.

Comments

TrueBlue2003

March 13th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^

was more underseeded than were are though.  I don't mind being a 7 seed, but man, we're a pickem as a 7 seed facing the 24th ranked team in kenpom that has the best offense in the country.

We should have been a 6 and they should have been an 8 probably.  I would much prefer every single one of the 8s and 9s to Oklahoma State. Vandernbilt with 15 losses is a 9!  Michigan State is a 9!  Seton Hall who is 53rd in kenpom is a 9!  And we get the 24th ranked team?  Brutal draw.

But again, get past them and it's not a horrible path.  Not necessarily favorable, but fair at least.

Just win the games.

Mongo

March 12th, 2017 at 9:08 PM ^

Creighten gets blasted by Villanova from a shit Big East conference tournament / league season and gets ranked ahead of the B1G champion? Time to stuff this f-ing thing down everyone's throat. DESTINY is our fate. And please God, I want Louisville in round 2. Please, I beg you, give us the chance to shuff it up Rick Pitino's obnoxious ass.

TrueBlue2003

March 13th, 2017 at 12:52 AM ^

they're very good at shooting threes (40.3 percent for 8th best in the country) but they only take the 181st most threes in the country.  They're the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the country. They're a very good FT shooting team, but don't necessarily get to the line much.

Weird team statistically.  The OREBs scare me.  That's been a bit of our problem spot.  Teams like OSU and Minnesota rode OREBs to wins despite being bad at shooting. But OSU is also good at shooting.  They have a little 6'1 guard that has a high FT rate and the 3rd (!!!) best assist rate in the country which is a nightmare matchup for us.  He's going to dribble drive all over our guards and kick to their shooters.  Sounds like Nate Mason but a better passer with better shooters to pass to.

They're the best offense in the country and live off doing what we struggle most with (offensive rebounds and dribble penetration).

They're very bad at defense but it looks like it's because they foul a lot.  We don't run an offense that lends itself to getting fouled so that might not be good.  They're small so if they're able to defend the perimeter (the allow a relatively low number of threes), they could have success against us.

Very unfortunate matchup. Probably would have rather taken any other team on the 8, 9 or 10 lines.  Even Wichita State who Ok St beat by 17 (!!) at WSU.

But we're a really good team, so it's a coin flip.  Let's get it done.

 

B-Nut-GoBlue

March 13th, 2017 at 3:00 AM ^

Good analysis. Now I'm pretty damned concerned. I mean, I was already disappointed once they showed our match up on the selection show as I've seen a little bit of Okie St. this year and pay a mild amount of attention to the Big 12 being in Iowa. Now I'm officially worried this run comes to an end at the hands of a 10-seed in the worst bracket put together to date.

Jangalang

March 12th, 2017 at 6:21 PM ^

that the BTT doesn't mean much in terms of seeding. I'm also sure that Hollis wasn't showing us any love. Tough draw but it should be exciting!! Love this time of year!

Bergs

March 12th, 2017 at 6:44 PM ^

The committee puts a lot of emphasis on RPI. Purdue and Minnesota were the B1G's 2 best RPI teams, hence the seeding.

That said, it's stupid. Anyone with a pulse knows Minnesota is not 3 seeds better than Wisconsin.

TrueBlue2003

March 13th, 2017 at 1:00 AM ^

but were given a seed indicative of a top 36 team. Northwestern is 51st but supposedly top 32?  Maryland was 34th in RPI but a top 24 team?  I'm sorry but the committee seems to have ignored the entire BTT.   Not sure how in the world those teams can justify being 12-15 spots ahead of their RPI if that's supposed to be so heavily weighted.

m1jjb00

March 12th, 2017 at 6:26 PM ^

is furious at the #8.

Better than expected seeds:

Purdue, Minnesota (perhaps 2 slots), Michigan State, Northwestern. maybe Maryland (6-1/2 seed?)

Worse than expected:

Wisconsin, Michigan

SpikeFan2016

March 12th, 2017 at 6:50 PM ^

My Wisconsin family is LIVID too. 

 

They swept Minnesota head to head, had a better Big Ten regular season record, and went farther in the tournament. Minnesota is ranked 3 spots higher. 

 

They beat Maryland the only time they played, had the same Big Ten record and went father in the tournament by 2 rounds. Maryland is ranked 2 spots higher. 

 

What the fuck. 

WolverineHistorian

March 12th, 2017 at 6:27 PM ^

I know nothing about Oklahoma State. I watched a bit of their home game against Kansas, which they lost by 5. They stayed close throughout but couldn't get over the hump.

If we make it to Louisville, that would be some sweet revenge.

enlightenedbum

March 12th, 2017 at 6:28 PM ^

So looking at our region, let's assume we get beyond Louisville somehow.  Sweet Sixteen would be against a depleted but still talented Oregon team that KenPom doesn't like very much.  Kansas is wildly inconsistent and rarely plays to their talent it seems.  Also over there is Purdue and an Iowa State team I think is really hot and playing well.

We could make it out of there... if we beat Louisville, which I'm not sure we can.

TrueBlue2003

March 13th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^

Our pod looks to be the toughest part of the region, relative to seeding.  Iowa State is a tough 5 seed but between them, Purdue and Kansas, there isn't anyone that is super scary that will come out of that side of the bracket compared to other regions.

Location (read: attendance) was clearly a huge factor this year with 3 Big 12 teams, 3 Big ten teams plus Louisville and Creighton in our region.

alum96

March 12th, 2017 at 6:28 PM ^

Kenpom is not the end all as shown by our rankings in Dec Jan when we played like shit and favored by 9 and 10 vs teams way below us in Kenpom only to lose.

Looking at Ok State scores the past month they look like we did in Nov/Dec - score a lot, don't play a lick of defense.  Now we play defense, so I'll take that matchup - 2 good offenses, 1 team doesn't give a damn about defense.  We are the other team.

m1jjb00

March 12th, 2017 at 6:29 PM ^

I'm surprised Louisville is a #2, but Im also surprised Oregon is not a #2.  (Maybe the latter due to the injury?).  So, I think it's a wash / slight benefit.  

Blue Durham

March 12th, 2017 at 6:29 PM ^

being seeded #7, and drawing Oklahoma State as a #10(!), and then Louisville, not so much.

Oh well, what's that saying, steel sharpens steel. Let's go with that.