The Talent Differential
I see how the board is full of 'how this team has underperformed yadda yadda.
Our talent differential compared to elite programs is still too wide
Consider this. Since 2013
- We have 4 recruits with 247 score above 98, OSU has 15, Alabama 26!!
- Put another way, for every Peppers we have, OSU has 4 equivalent difference makers, Alabama has 6.5 equivalent difference makers.
It doesn't get any better when we look lower down the depth chart.
- We have 21 recruits above a composite score of 95 since 2013, OSU has 44, Alabama 55
The point I'm trying to make is that unless we get an equivalent number of difference makers, having program that contends for National Championships is a pipedream. Unfortunately, all the top programs have similar high level player development and facilities. It comes down to having players with the highest ceilings and developing them to their potential.
Underperform is what OSU did (against Clemson).
Clemson had 16 recruits above a composite score of 95 ... compared to OSU - who had 33!You can tack some of that to youth but not all of it.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:47 PM ^
It's coming, but UM needs to get some true difference makers at their offensive skill positions.
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:00 AM ^
DPJ is the best WR we've had since Manningham. Samuels will be a dynamic playmaker at RB, as is Evans IMO, and Harris too if we get him. McCaffrey will be a dynamic QB.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
It's not the first criterion that comes to mind when I think about my ideal quarterback, although I know that kind of player is fashionable. If I understand the word correctly, Terrelle Pryor was dynamic. Tom Brady was, and is, not. I'd take Brady over Pryor any day and that opinion is probably almost universal. Looking closer to home, I'd take a healthy Speight over J. T. Barrett. I want a quarterback who can get the ball where it needs to be, on time.
January 2nd, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^
You wouldn't call sitting in the pocket, side stepping or stepping up in the pocket to avoid pressure, reading the defense accurately, and making big plays in key situations (he wasn't called the comeback kid for nothing) dynamic? Brady is dynamic throwing the ball, Pryor was dynamic with his feet, both were dynamic, but in different ways.
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:08 PM ^
If "dynamic" is used as a synonym for "effective" I have no quarrel with it but it doesn't have much meaning left.
An internet search finds it commonly coupled with "dual-threat" and turns up the following list of "dynamic quarterbacks":
- Baker Mayfield
- J. T. Barrett
- Robert Griffin III
- Steve McNair
- Kordell Stewart
- Michael Vick
- John Elway
- Eli Manning
- Sam Darnold
- Cam Newton
- Russell Wilson
- Greg Ward
- Patrick Mahomes
- Doug Flutie
There are some damn good quarterbacks on that list, but it's a different type of player. (Although if there's a Darnold out there that wants to play for Michigan, that sounds good.) If I dug around a bit I'll bet I could find a "dynamic" Harbaugh reference too.
I specifically looked for a description of Brady or P. Manning as "dynamic" and can't find one...when I looked for Peyton I found Eli instead. Which was interesting. What's the real difference between them? To me it's that Peyton got the ball out so quick, was so efficient with his reads. Eli's not exactly Vick or Flutie back there, but unlike his brother he gets hiimself into situations where he has to start running around. I guess that's enough (probably helps if you play in New York).
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:48 PM ^
Recruitniks - what was Darnold's ranking compared to Peters or McCaffrey?
That damn kid can ball.......
January 5th, 2017 at 2:42 PM ^
179th in the country, 25th in California, 8th at his position.
McCaffrey is 52nd nationally, 4th at his position. Peters was 158th and 6th.
I'm not going to read much into that--the recruiting services seem to have whiffed on Darnold. He is not the 179th best player in his class.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:49 PM ^
Say something once, why say it again...?
January 2nd, 2017 at 6:22 PM ^
that's a lot of confidence.
Unless you are speaking from pure rankings perspective.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:47 PM ^
Only osu and Utah had Michigan beat before the very end
Did win a few at end IU, minney
But the BEST coach might prevent the collapse?
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:06 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:24 AM ^
I agree for the most part, but I feel that there are some conservative play calls at times that keep opponents in the game so that one turnover makes a difference (as it did last year vs. MSU).
For example, against FSU with 1st and 1 yard to the goal line after the turnover...was there anyone who was surprised that the play call was run up the middle? Haven't we run 1st and goal more than 70% of the time this season? I was hoping if there was a run, it would have been 2 QB sneaks in a row (with running back fake over the top) or a jet sweep or a fake option just to keep FSU on their toes. Or if a throw, roll out Wilton and have him run it in or throw to the back of the end zone if open receiver.
Just something that's not so predictable.
That one series sums up how I've felt in a few close games this year and last. Some we win, and a few we lose.
With a little more talent, I believe Harbaugh can power through these games, but without it, have to scheme like Belichick. Hell, even Carr beat Florida with the spread in his last game...so just looking for a few more low-risk wrinkles that might be possible with the extra month of practice.
January 2nd, 2017 at 2:59 AM ^
UM was 20th in 2014 and 37th in 2015 and only 15 players. Harbaugh produced what you would hope one of the best coaches in all of football would, back to back 10 win seasons and in the CFC conversation in year 2. The last time UM was relevant todays recruits were 8 years old. Harbaugh being Harbaugh has made UM relevant in a year really. Turned a decade of despair into we are back.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:14 AM ^
The worst effect of the low ranked 2014 and 2015 classes will be felt...in 2017.
So most of the 2016 class (and even several members of the 2017 class) are going to be filling in that gap and will have to take on major roles 1 to 2 years earlier than is optimal.
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:31 AM ^
against MSU last year. He did not save a timeout for the punt and should have at least taken a delay of game penalty after seeing Dantonio was selling out for a block.
O'Neil was a very accurate punter. UM should have gone max protect and had him punt the ball put of bounds. I would have liked our chances against Sparty on a single play when they would have had 70+ yards to go.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:39 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:02 AM ^
IMO this again all comes back to the o-line. It's hard to win on the road and be unpredictable when you don't have offensive balance and can't run the ball. If we can run effectively and get some push from our o-line we dominate those games.
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:19 PM ^
If you go by what has been accomplished, I think you would have to put Saban first and Meyer second. They are the only active coaches with mulitple national titles and both did it at 2 schools.
Based on accomplishment, not even sure Harbaugh would be third as one could argue that a Chris Peterson or Jimbo Fisher has accomplished more.
But Harbaugh has a pretty short college coaching career compared to Saban, Meyer and Peterson. In each situation he has been in, there has been quick improvement. But he has never really stuck around long enough to get his machine rolling as there was always a better opportunity to move on to. Closest thing was his last year at Stanford where he had a very good season, finishing #4 and 12-1. If you looked at future potential, Harbaugh could be the best of the bunch.
Even if possible, I dont think I would trade him for any other college coach right now. Saban is getting up in age. If I had to trade him, I would take in order: Meyer, Peterson, Saban (only 3rd due to age).
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:23 PM ^
Most glaring thing to me was the size, strength, and speed of DL on both Alabama and Clemson. This is where the southern schools have always had a large edge.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:05 PM ^
For one game. No biggie. If you want to be elite year after year...recruiting matters. Talent development matters. CHEMISTRY matters. Building a program and consistency matters.
We're getting there for sure. We're on our way. But we've still got some room to grow.
Harbaugh wasn't gift wrapped an elite program. He's going to have to build it and that's what he's doing. We're coming, no question about it.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:07 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:09 PM ^
yes, yes, yes.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:11 PM ^
Not absurdly higher than Michigan though
- Michigan: 5 over 98 since 2013; Clemson 8
- Michigan: 21 over 95; Clemson 19
They have higher ceiling players. but should be about even. But the rest of the ACC is meh.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:25 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 9:06 AM ^
2013: 13th (OSU 3rd, UM 6th)
2014: 12th (OSU 7th, UM 18th)
2015: 4th (OSU 6th, UM 40th)
2016: 8th (OSU 5th, UM 6th)
January 1st, 2017 at 11:08 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:41 PM ^
I think everyone else is undersigning.
Saban wins every year because he has the most great players and develops them.
Sorry, no one else does it at his level consistently.
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:05 AM ^
It's not just the talent and the development, both which are the best in the game right now. When was the last time you saw Alabama lose a game due to their own mistakes? Blown coverages, blocking assignments, etc? They simply don't it. Their execution is what IMO sets them, and Saban, apart from everyone.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:07 AM ^
when you have that much competition at a school. It's easy to get guys to compete and eliminate mistakes. You are playing against elite atheltes day in and day out.
It is a virtuous cycle.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:43 AM ^
Bo talking about how the 2nd team D in practice was great for his 1st team because it was full of future All-Conference guys in waiting. That all changed when scholarship restrictions came in 1973.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:07 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:46 AM ^
come up with any reason they want to explain why Alabama nearly always wins.
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January 2nd, 2017 at 1:03 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:39 AM ^
It seems the rules have changed at UM.
Just a statement/question and not a value judgement.
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:39 AM ^
It seems the rules have changed at UM.
Just a statement/question and not a value judgement.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:20 AM ^
Does an honest and realistic conversation about playing time prospects before the 5th year count as runnning guys off? Not to me.
So far I seen no evidence of the stuff Alabama, LSU, etc., etc. have done, such as cutting RS sophomores with invented injuries or telling a true freshman that his scholarship is yanked just after he has already moved into the dorm.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:23 AM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:08 PM ^
Given Harbaugh enough time, he will catch up. Not only that, he's the very few head coach that can develope QB on his own, we don't have to worry about QB play whoever comes in. I am wondering if Harbaugh is willing to take a good dual threat QB in the future. With good running ability, it just add one more dimension in offense. It's probably hard to fnd those kind of kids with Harbaugh's standard in passing. But it's not necesarily impossible. Especially, we have enough QB depth now, we can take a risk to take a great ahelete as QB, worse case, he can probably convert to a WR.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:22 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:09 PM ^
No one thinks we should be beating Alabama, bit of a strawman there.
What are the numbers for Clemson, WA, PSU, OK, WI, FSU, USC?
Any weighting for seniority e.g. Phil Steele' system?
Have you looked at any NFL draft projections for 2017? Which schools have the most senior talent there?
January 1st, 2017 at 11:09 PM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 9:09 AM ^
Peppers, Gary, DPJ. So far there just aren't enough of them and not in the same classes, but they are there.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:09 PM ^
I don't buy this. We had 3 projected 1st rounders, and like 9 or 10 projected draft picks in total, which is the most or 2nd most in the country. Just because a guy isn't a star recruit doesn't mean he's not talented. This team underachieved, it's ok to admit. 10-3, got outplayed by freaking Iowa and a FSU team that lost by 40+ to Louisville. This team didn't reach its potential, not even close IMO.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:15 PM ^
But we didn't have an elite QB or RB. We had an average O-LINE
Some matchups will be hard.
Also remember, we lost those three games by a combined 5 points. It's not like we got blown out. And anybody will tell you that a few calls here and there and the result moves in our favor.