CFP Rankings @7pm

1) clemson and/or washington lose 2) PSU beats Wisco ... In this scenario I think we are in, along with the trash bags from columbus.

The 4% chance we get in at 4:

We should be the best two loss team which would have us at 5 this week.

1) Ala 2) OSU 3) Clem 4) Wash 5) Mich 6) Wisky 7) PSU 8) Colo.

And if Colorado and PSU win it should be difficult for them to move ahead of us given our head to head record.

1) Bama, 2) OSU, 3) Clemson, 4) Michigan

Then we play Bama to be able to go on to a rematch at neutral location with neutral refs. Wouldn't that be sweet!!!!

As I said on Sunday, if Washington loses to Colorado we are IN. The committee has valued head-to-head all year and I feel confident with our faith in their hands. 1. Alabama 4. Michigan 2. Ohio State 3. Clemson

We have no chance. The committee will prioritize conference champions. We'll be ranked below Wisconsin at the very least.

But I don't think a team who loses 2 out of their last 3 games deserves to be in it.

While I think we're one of the best teams, we can't justify being in with two losses.  We had to win either Iowa or OSU to be considered - losing both means we're out.  We can bitch about having beat PSU, Wisconsin, and Colorado while also losing such a coin-flip game to OSU....but we lost 2 of our last 3 and one was to a crappy Iowa.

If we are sitting at 1-loss we're right in the mix.  But as it is we shouldn't be in consideration.  It would take total chaos (both Clemson AND Washington losing) just for us to get a sniff, and even then I don't think we should make it.  

Sucks....but get a 4th quarter first down or a stop or an actual ref call skewed toward us in those two games.  

this part made me laugh:

"I have gone on record as saying I believe we will be ranked #5."

Something about the thought that "jonesie022" has "gone on record" just makes me crack up. 

Anonymous internet guy is on the record!

:)

 

#Spotgate

Here's my stance. I think the committee learned its lesson from last year in that they need to put in the BEST teams rather than the most DESERVING teams. Take MSU for example getting slaughtered 38-0 against Alabama. They were a team that always played to the level of its opponent and needed one of the most fluke plays in college football history to beat Michigan and a monsoon to beat OSU. They weren't one of the best teams in the nation and the advanced metrics showed that. The committee, however, put in the most deserving team and they got it wrong.

Fast forward to 2016, if that 4th spot comes down to Colorado, the B1G Champion, and Michigan, there is no way the committee can lie to itself and say that either of those two teams are better than Michigan. There is just no way. Even if Washington wins, there's an argument to be made that Michigan is better (but I feel they'd take the easy route and choose Washington to avoid controversy).

I freaking hate the NC St kicker.

if we are #4...doesnt mean we'd stay there but Im going out on a limb and say were #4 tonight and let the CHAOS begin..

We are #4 today and we will get "TCU-ed" on Sunday.

IF Colorado beats Washington and Wisconsin goes on to win the B1G. How can the committee argue against a 2 loss team that has wins over 2 conf-champs? makes no sense. If they were to put in Wisconsin over us, go ahead, you just wait and see what Bama does to that Wisconsin team.

We'll be on the outside looking in. My guess is #5, with Wisconsin #6, and Penn State #7. Its going to take A LOT of chaos for us to even be considered. 

-If Washington wins, we're out. Done. Period. End of story. If Colorado wins, our chances might go up from bleak to ehh. But no one else would be able to say they've beaten two conference champions, so that might give us some kind of life. 

-If Virginia Tech beats Clemson, that helps as well. Doubt it has much of an effect one way or another, but them losing certainly wouldn't hurt our chances. 

-What we also need is the Big Ten title game to be a REAL STINKER. Like an ugly 7-3 kind of win where both teams combine for 7-8 turnovers and neither of  them look particularly good. That might hurt our resume a little bit, but it also doesn't cause the committee to have to wonder if either Wiscy or PSU should be in. 

-Oklahoma State would probably need to win. They'd be Big XII champs I believe, but would still have that CMU loss at home hanging over their head. Oklahoma has respectable losses to OSU and Houston. 

Even if all of this happens, I doubt we'd make it in. Could still see the BTT winner sneaking their way in over us. But the real kicker is Washington. If they win, our fate is sealed. If Colorado wins, it at least becomes interesting. The committee would seriously have to consider the fact that we beat two conference champions head to head. 

I'm personally thinking we're bound for the Orange Bowl, though. 

PSU squeaks by Wisky

Colorado blows out Washington

VT beats up Clemson

OU squeaks by OK State

Playoff teams:

1 - Bama

2 - Ohio State

2 spots among these teams:

10-2 Michigan

11-2 Colorado

10-2 OU

11-2 PSU

The B!G throttled both OU and Colorado - could get 3

but it would be a fun discussion

Hopefully Penn State takes out Wisconsin. Read that the main QB isn't playing. Hornibrook or whoever the hell that kid was that Michigan dominated. All of the Ohio fans are saying that if Penn State had their linebackers in the game against UM, it would've been different. Really? 49-10? How much different. Let us all pray that Colorado takes out Washington also. This is the ticket. The ratings and money in the country don't want to see Colorado or Penn State sick fucks in the playoff. They want a hungry UM team who got screwed over. That Bama vs. Michigan matchup would be through the roof. Then if the good guys got a shot at the yuckeyes in the title? Shits going down then. We're talking MONEY boys!!

They could keep us at 3 or 4 and then let Clemson and/or Washington pass us (and put OSU at 4) when they win their conference title game in order to Make A Statement about their feelings on conference championships. Washington has a big chance to upgrade their resume with a resounding win over Colorado.

I have no idea what to expect. I wouldn't be shocked to see us as high as 3 or as low as 6. The only thing that would be surprising would be if they put Wisconsin or Penn State in front of us

Ultimately it boils down to how much they value conference championships vs head to head matchups. There's no way they'll let 3 Big Ten teams in. If they let in 2 it'll be either OSU & the winner of BTC or OSU & Michigan. If conference championships matter more than HTH records & the eye test/fancy stats, then it'll be OSU and winner of the BTC game. If it's the other way around they'll put in OSU & Michigan and totally bitchslap the BTC winner. No matter what they do, the team on the outs will have a legitimate complaint. PSU/Wisconsin would complain about losing out to a team who was 3rd in their division. Michigan would complain about the HTH,
fancy stats & overall resume being ignored.

Just hoping for the rose bowl, somehow. Washington is going to roll Colorado by at least 25, that will end any hope we have. It was a good year, we should be 12-0 but we're 10-2. We'll continue to move forward as long as we have this coaching staff.

I predict the top 5 as follows:

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson 
4. Michigan
5. Washington

Michigan stayed at #3 after losing to a then unranked Iowa on a walk off field goal. They probably should have dropped a spot or two but they didn't. This week Michigan lost to #2 OSU on a walk off TD in OT. Frankly, they shouldn't drop from #3, but I'm guessing the committee will rectify Michigan not dropping after losing to Iowa and drop them to #4. At this point, Washington does not have anywhere near the resume Michigan has, so I predict Washington to be #5.

Unfortunately, if Michigan is #4 the stay will be short lived. With a win over Colorado, Washington will jump Michigan. I also think the B1G winner will jump Michigan. For Michigan to get in, I believe both Clemson and Washington have to lose and PSU has to win the B1G. That leaves two spots with four teams vying for them:

11-2 PSU
10-2 Michigan
11-2 Colorado
10-2 Oklahoma/Oklahoma State

Michigan would have a head to head over PSU (who I think would earn a spot in this scenario by virtue of their head to head over OSU and B1G title) and Colorado and far stronger resume than the Big 12 winner. 

And to be honest, the safe play for the CFP committee is to give deference to the conferences. Politically they need their support to be legitimized. If they skip Michigan they to war with Harbaugh & Co. If they skip The BTC winner, they go to war with both the snubbed team as well as the Big Ten front office & possibly other commissioners who want to protect the importance of the conference championship games.

the cfp to recognize the abomination that the officiating was for our final game

Any chance that they weigh winning your league and next week it ends up being:

Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Oklahoma/PSU/Wisconsin

They send a message that you have to win your division and league to get in.

We're screwed. At least there are 2 months until pitchers and catchers report. 

I think our only hope is for both Clemson and Washington to lose, and maybe Oklahoma for good measure. I think Alabama, OSU, and B10 champion will be in, even thought it makes no sense. Our only hope is if the committe decides the B10 has 3 of the best 4 teams in the country - Michigan, OSU, B10 champion

If we don't make it into the CFP, I hope we could sneak into the Rose Bowl and play USC. Traditional Rose Bowl game foes, and Jabrill Peppers and Adoree' Jackson on the same field. If not, the Orange Bowl against Florida State would be next choice.

But I really want that #4 spot and go up against Bama.

Just put us at 5. If we are anything higher we will never hear the end of it. Someone will leap frog us on Sunday even if we were #4.