CFP Rankings @7pm

Submitted by jonesie022 on
I know it's early and many of you were going to tell me to stop clinging on to hope but tonight rankings will determine and tell us our chances going forward. I have gone on record as saying I believe we will be ranked #5. If you just put blind resumes up next to one another I still say we have a better resume than Clemson and Washington despite two losses. I'm not delusional enough to think we will be ranked ahead of them tonight but if one of them lose Saturday I say we are in. Remember when Texas A&M was ranked ahead of an undefeated Washington? Why can't a 2 loss Michigan with MORE quality wins who plays in undoubtedly the BEST conference in America do the same? Speaking of which, who in the hell determines the strength of schedule rankings? All three of our non conference teams are bowl eligible and we play in the toughest conference/ division in America yet are in the 50s/60s? Sorry for formatting...
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DualThreat

November 29th, 2016 at 12:28 PM ^

Debates on rankings reduce to one simple question:

Do you rank based on which teams are the most deserving or which teams are the best?

If the CFP committee goes with the former, we're out.  If they go with the latter, we should be in.  If they take some combination of the two, well, it depends on how much they weigh the former vs. the latter (which is probably what they'll do - and in the process stir as much debate as possible).

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MFan73

November 29th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^

In my opinion, because of unbalanced conference schedules (including the 8 vs. 9 conference game schedule), they should not be putting so much emphasis on this.  It's not like it's an eight team playoff where all the Power 5 Conferences receive an automatic bid.  It should be the four best teams and head-to-head should matter more.  For instance, if for some reason Alabama should be upset by Florida (not very likely, but anything is possible), they would not put a 9-3 Florida team (who will drop, at least slightly, from 14 following their loss at FSU) over a 12-1 Alabama team that has been dominant all season long.  Although, this scenario would definitely have to change the committee's thinking going forward if they feel strongly about not leaving two quality squads that are not conference champions.  I am cautiously hoping for the best, but not expecting much.  I am definitely a Colorado and Virginia Tech fan this week!

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ldd10

November 29th, 2016 at 2:36 PM ^

MSU last year isn't a great example because they actually had a resume that stacked up very well to other contenders (Oregon at home, at OSU and UM, BTCG against Iowa).  They may have squeaked by a lot, but if you look purely at win/loss it was impressive.

 

To the bigger point - yes - conference championships don't always mean a team is one of the top four.

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los barcos

November 29th, 2016 at 12:48 PM ^

if it matters who wins Wisc vs PSU as much as the type of game it is.

People have fickle minds and tend to overreact to what is in front of their face RIGHT NOW.  If Wisc and PSU play a good fundamentally sound, solid football game that is back and forth until the end then I think the winner goes regardless who that winner is.  Conversely, if one team absolutely blows out the other, I think that winner goes, too.

What we need is an ugly, turnover-prone poopfest, with both teams making mistakes, missing extra points, having lots of flags while remaining relatively close on the scoreboard.  It needs to be an ugly enough game that the consensus is that these are two mediocre teams that happen to be playing in the championship game due to scheduling quirks and happenstance more so than talent.

(This is, of course, assuming one of Clemson/Washington loses).

The rooting interest, regardless of rankings tonight: Clemson/Wash loss, with an ugly and non-memorable B1G Championship game.

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UMFanstuckinOhio

November 29th, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^

Wisconsin is in over us with a BIG Conference title. The rason for this is they will beat us on SOS and Conference Championship, UM will have the head to head. PSU on the other hand will have an almost identical SOS and we beat them by 39 points head to head. So Yes I think it matters and it must be PSU that wins.

 

 

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UMFanstuckinOhio

November 29th, 2016 at 1:06 PM ^

Wisconsin is in over us with a BIG Conference title. The rason for this is they will beat us on SOS and Conference Championship, UM will have the head to head. PSU on the other hand will have an almost identical SOS and we beat them by 39 points head to head. So Yes I think it matters and it must be PSU that wins.

 

 

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Mr. Elbel

November 29th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^

we will be TCU'd regardless of what happens. the precedent that has been set is that conference championships > head to head. in the final ranking 2 years ago they put TCU not only out of the playoffs but behind a Baylor team that they beat. they went into their bowl game ranked #6. head to head is not the end-all. you guys are crazy if you think we get in above a champion.

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Durham Blue

November 29th, 2016 at 1:05 PM ^

I think if Michigan gets in after the ensuing chaos of this coming weekend, I believe we would end up as a 3 seed and not a 4 seed.  Assuming Alabama and OSU are locked in at 1 and 2, respectively, I am doubting the committee would want a POTENTIAL matchup between two B1G teams in the championship game.  They would want to resolve that in the semis and let the best B1G team battle Alabama or Clemson/Washington in the finals.  It's probably better for ratings this way, i.e. a less regional matchup.

 

And if we don't make it into the CFP, I want to play USC in a bowl game.  That would be an awesome consolation game for us.

 

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PapabearBlue

November 29th, 2016 at 1:10 PM ^

Legitimate question here.

 
I keep seeing a lot of "the CFP wont want to discredit the conference championship games"
 
Why? and where are you getting your info?
 
I'm not saying they wouldn't want to or that they havent stated that. But I've never seen anything like that myself and I really don't see why they would care. They are two seperate entities that have virtually nothing to do with each other. The only real interest I could see the CFP having in conference champions is when determining 1 out of 2 teams both from a conference who havent played prior to their conference championship meeting.
 
This is just like our rankings, there is, at this point, no reason to leave Michigan out unless Washington just destroys colorado. If Ohio State is #2 then we should be #3 and in reality Alabama shouldn't be in the top because they havent beaten anyone (two top 25, whoopdeedoo).
 
Honestly, it should be Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin in some sort of random order.

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GGV

November 29th, 2016 at 1:11 PM ^

Big if here, but the committee seems determined to place the best teams in the playoff.

Record isn’t blindly driving the rankings as it did in the past.  We may not be able to predict what they’ll do tonight.

 

Now, clearly, Michigan was the better team last Saturday.  That was apparent to anyone watching.

Given that it was #2 VS #3 and went to double overtime only because of highly biased officiating if the committee sticks to their guns, we may not move from #3 tonight.  #4 at the worst.

 

If they want to be radical, they could even move us ahead of tOSU by stating we were the better team in an openly hostile environment. (doubtful but possible).

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The Mad Hatter

November 29th, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^

Because I was just about to post something similar to your last paragraph.

I'd love to see Clemson move to 2, have us stay at 3, and OSU drop to 4.  Anyone with eyes can see we're better than OSU this year, regardless of the final score.  Seeing the committee validate that would be awesome.

So of course there's no chance it will happen.

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Jimmyisgod

November 29th, 2016 at 1:28 PM ^

Here's where it gets tough for us, we have zero argument to be in above Ohio State.  So if the right 1 or 2 teams lose we would need the committee to decide that A) Ohio State and us noth deserve to be in over the Big Ten Champs, or B, the Big Ten deserves 3 teams.  

Both of those things would cause a major shit storm, and I think 3 Big Ten teams in the playoffs is more likely than no Big Ten Champ in with us and Ohio State in.

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PapabearBlue

November 29th, 2016 at 2:15 PM ^

We do have an argument to be in over ohio state. Ohio state is currently ranked higher than a team they lost to, so are we. We played them at Ohio State to an essential draw and the entire CFB community knows we got screwed not once but multiple times throughout the game.

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PapabearBlue

November 29th, 2016 at 2:15 PM ^

We do have an argument to be in over ohio state. Ohio state is currently ranked higher than a team they lost to, so are we. We played them at Ohio State to an essential draw and the entire CFB community knows we got screwed not once but multiple times throughout the game.

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Brandon_L

November 29th, 2016 at 1:31 PM ^

What makes people think Michigan does not get in? 10.4 rating for The Game played at noon? I am telling you there will be one maybe two conference champs this year and two non champs Ohio State and Michigan. There will be no PAC 12 with washingtons weak ass schedule (67th) and if they lose that just helps Michigan. Penn State, Wisconsin does not matter either. The best two teams based on strength of schedule and quality wins including head to head are Michigan out of the Big Ten. The committee has a chance to stir the pot and prove that schedule strength matters and that teams better beef up, and conferences better improve internally. This year will be controversial, but no way will they pass on the big dollars and ratings that an Ohio State, Michigan rematch has to offer and nows their best chance.



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Mongo

November 29th, 2016 at 2:01 PM ^

the CFP is a money making venture, no? Last year's playoffs bombed, financially. To get advertisers to dole out the big bucks again, media-types are going want to see marque match-ups. Sabin vs. Harbaugh in Round 1 would be block-buster ratings, can you imagine the viewership? Plus, the intrigue of a potential OSU rematch stoking the Harbaugh flames for success. Dynamite ! First, we need the committee to rank us no worse than #5 tonight. Then we will need CU to defeat Washington. Then we will need greed to take over and use UM's SOS and H2H to justify selecting UM over the B1G or PAC12 title game champs or Oklahoma. Going to be hard to jump a 2-loss Clemson if Washington beats CU. Saban vs Swinney is dynamite for ratings as well.

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uofmchris

November 29th, 2016 at 2:38 PM ^

I mean it doesnt help that the games are also scheduled on New Years Eve.

 

Who wouldn't be excited to stay home and watch an Alabama vs. Penn State/Washington/Colorado/OK/OKState game at 8:00pm New Years Eve!

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Mongo

November 29th, 2016 at 3:26 PM ^

"Strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifiaclly applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar;" So if it comes down to UM vs PSU/UW or CU (all with 2-losses), I think we win 2 out of the 3 criteria - SOS and H2H. So greed maybe not as important as first thought ... the written protocol provides the ammo to slot UM in the top 4 should CU beat Washington. Plus, Barry Alvarez has to recuse himself from all voting related to UW!!! But CMU's Herb Deromedi (a UM BA & MA degree holder) is not recused from voting.

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FLwolvfan22

November 29th, 2016 at 5:16 PM ^

Assumming the greed theory. If they put us at #3 it assures we wouuld not be eliminated with a result this weekend. If they put us at #4, the case could be made to bump us out of the CFP based on Washington winning. So if they are greedy and want the premier matchups, they will put the fix in tonight with Michigan at 3.

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Wendyk5

November 29th, 2016 at 4:52 PM ^

Here's my hot take on our AD. A few on this board complained that he wasn't vocal enough in support of Harbaugh. But I think he's playing to the powers that be. He knows that incessant belly-aching isn't going to win friends. Instead, he's working the back channels, tryng to quell the public criticism and instead pleading our case in private. Making a conference look bad isn't going to help us in the CFP but if Warde Manuel works it privatley, who knows what can happen. 

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Mongo

November 29th, 2016 at 5:00 PM ^

These conferences are trying to maximize CFP participants because there is big money involved. League greed is at the center of which officiating crew is selected for games ... Delaney and team figured out the best way to ensure at least OSU is in the playoffs plus maybe another B1G team (whether it is UM, PSU or UW). But the PAC12 can play that game as well ... can't wait to see how CU is treated in that title game this weekend !!! You can bank on Clemson getting all the calls against a hapless VT.

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