CFP Rankings @7pm

Submitted by jonesie022 on
I know it's early and many of you were going to tell me to stop clinging on to hope but tonight rankings will determine and tell us our chances going forward. I have gone on record as saying I believe we will be ranked #5. If you just put blind resumes up next to one another I still say we have a better resume than Clemson and Washington despite two losses. I'm not delusional enough to think we will be ranked ahead of them tonight but if one of them lose Saturday I say we are in. Remember when Texas A&M was ranked ahead of an undefeated Washington? Why can't a 2 loss Michigan with MORE quality wins who plays in undoubtedly the BEST conference in America do the same? Speaking of which, who in the hell determines the strength of schedule rankings? All three of our non conference teams are bowl eligible and we play in the toughest conference/ division in America yet are in the 50s/60s? Sorry for formatting...
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taistreetsmyhero

November 29th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^

Wisconsin has no claim to the playoff. Penn st would be their best win. The only reason they've been ranked highly all season is beating terrible LSU and MSU teams that were laughably overrated to start the year two pretty losses.

Penn st has a better win than any of ours, would be conference champion from the best division in college football, and can make the argument that they are a much different team than the decimated squad that got slaughtered by us on the road. It's a weak one, sure, but would be enough to keep the controversial Michigan pick out of the picture.



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The Mad Hatter

November 29th, 2016 at 11:27 AM ^

We won't, of course, but we're clearly a top 4 team.  And regardless of what happened on Saturday, I think we're a better team than OSU.  If the CFP Committee is really serious about having the best 4 teams in the playoffs, we should be in.

Conference championships shouldn't count for much, especially when either the 3rd or 4th best team is going to win it.

One more thing, I think we need to scrap the divisions.  Keep a couple of protected rivalry games on the annual schedule, but mix the rest up.  In a just world the B1G Championship game would be a Michigan OSU rematch.

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MGoChippewa

November 29th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^

especially what you said about the 3rd or 4th best team going to the title game.  Basically, if PSU wins and they get in over UM, you're rewarding a team UM beat by 39 for taking their 2nd loss to Pitt instead of Iowa.  Goes against what the committee says about looking at the whole body of work and instead is more about timing.

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Durham Blue

November 29th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^

Because I am so good at making predictions (see my Michigan 41, OSU 17 lock of the week), here is another for the board to digest:

 

If either Clemson OR Washington loses, Michigan is IN the CFP.  Bam!

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MAZandBLUE

November 29th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^

I'm not convinced we will even drop at all. A three point loss in double OT on the road to the #2 ranked team (with obvious officiating fuck ups) doesn't warrant a drop. It will come down to if the committee thinks Clemson's and Washington's wins were more impressive than our loss (i.e. Michigan doesn't deserve to drop, but do Clemson or Washington deserve to move up?).

I'm more concerned about next week when those teams get another chance for a W and a conference champion title (not to mention recency bias). I wouldn't be surprised to see them jump us then. The committee has shown that they're not afraid to make drastic changes the last week depending on who did or did not play.

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Taco Panda

November 29th, 2016 at 12:34 PM ^

I agree with your logic here and hope to see the committee objectively evaluate us based on who we've beaten and how, the circumstances of our losses, and how other ranked teams have stacked up comparatively. I know they are charged with re-evaluating the field each week and not just moving teams up or down based on current position, but they had us at 3 when we were 9-0. Held us at 3 after a last-second loss on the road to Iowa. Held us at 3 after a less than inspiring win at home against Indiana. Do they still hold us at 3 with another loss, albeit to #2, on-the road, 2OT, etc. etc.? Following logic and objectivity relative to the rest of the field, that makes sense. But it's hard to imagine that the undefeated team they had at #3 in week 11 remains there this week. We've lost 2 of the last 3 games, had a mediocre win vs. unranked Indiana, and each team above or immediately below us has won since week 12 so I suspect we'll drop. Who knows. I certainly do not. This team deserves a shot so here's hoping for some committee love and conf. championship chaos to land us in the CFP where this team belongs. As always, Go Blue!!

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MgoBlueprint

November 29th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^

There's no question that we should be ahead of both psu and wisky. I think the TAMU ranking early could help us. The committee put a one loss tamu over Washington. I didn't agree with it at the time, but that precedent could come into play tonight.

I would love nothing more than for the opportunity to beat both Bama and osu, but the precedent it could hurt us in the long run. What's to stop them from putting 2-3 sec teams in the playoffs in the future?
Hopefully they do the right thing and put us no lower than 5. The B1G title game is a game between the third and fourth best teams in the conference.



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UMBSnMBA

November 29th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^

I can't escape this feeling that we'll be #5 and relying on a Colorado win and then they will go and lose in double overtime.  Not sure where this concern comes from ...

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George Pickett

November 29th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^

This is a pipe dream.  Even if Washington, Clemson, and Wisconsin all lose, the committee would just take OSU and PSU.  

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Bb011

November 29th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^

We will be #5 (where we should be) or #6 with a slight chance at #7. We have no shot at the playoffs with how the championship week will work out. We also have very little shot at the rose bowl due how championship week is now setup. 

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Moonlight Graham

November 29th, 2016 at 11:31 AM ^

on this) but here it goes...

If Clemson or Washington loses, then the committee could JUSTIFIABLY say that the four BEST teams remaining in college football are Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and whichever of Clemson or Washington didn't lose. Of course, it would be even better if both lost in which case you'd see the Bedlam winner in there. Even in that "perfect-world/pick-the-best-teams-regardless" scenario they wouldn't put three Big Ten teams in. 

However, I am resigned to the thinking that the committee will dredge a bit for conference champions, AND try to evenly distribute playoff slots across conferences as best it can. They will put the B1G10 champion in over us; if they TRULY value championships they'll leave both us and OSU out; they'd put the Bedlam winner and 2-loss Pac 12 champ Colorado in before one or both of us. 

Yes, they'd get the highest viewership with Alabama-Michigan and Ohio State-Clemson. Nobody wants to see Alabama-Washington or Ohio State-Colorado or Alabama-Wisconsin or Clemson-Penn State, or whatever. 

This year will be a landmark "court case" decision that future seasons will look to as precedent. Multiple teams from same conference vs. all-champions? Head to head, strength of schedule, all of that. It's not at all cut and dried this year. Will be fascinating. 

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MgoBlueprint

November 29th, 2016 at 11:32 AM ^

Best case scenario is that the committee follows the lone wolf ap voters lead and puts us at number 2. The officials are put on notice. Delaney resigns in shame. Delaney would then take his walk of shame from the B1G offices to forgo de chao like cersei Lannister, with Harbaugh ringing the shame bell.



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mGrowOld

November 29th, 2016 at 12:00 PM ^

So let's leave Alabama & OSU in as locks leaving two slots open.  IMO there's no way in Hell they'll take Michigan over the B1G conference champion - especially since they'll already have selected OSU.  Meaning there's one spot left and we aint getting it.

We blew our chance in Iowa, not Columbus.  Win THAT game and we're sitting in the OSU seat right now.  In the dance and wating to see how high we're seeded.  That's the game we should be pissed off about cause no excuses there - we yacked it away with no help from the officials and not much help from Iowa.

 

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mGrowOld

November 29th, 2016 at 12:35 PM ^

What criteria does the selection committee use to rank the teams?

The committee selects the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory) and other relevant factors that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-faqs

 

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TheCool

November 29th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^

The way you understand it is correct. People are assuming conference championships are the #1 consideration with the most weight in every situation partially because it is mentioned first and they are used to conference champions automatically receiving a bowl bid in past scenarios. There is not guarantee that whomever wins the Big Ten will be in the CFP.

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ak47

November 29th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^

How would psu not have a comparable resume of they win, 2 top 10 wins compared to our 3, two losses on the road to top 25 teams including 1 to a top 10 team for both teams. In terms of comparable opponents beat Iowa who we lost to, beat osu who we lost to, beat msu by more, etc. those are comparable resumes and then it comes down to which does the committee value more, a conference champion in week 13 or a head to head win in week 4. I honestly think we want Wisconsin to win one of the ugliest games you've ever seen.

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Trader Jack

November 29th, 2016 at 3:06 PM ^

You've already stated some of the reasons why. They'd have two top 10 wins; we have 3. Our 2 losses are even better: a 1 point last second loss and a 3 point double OT loss compared to a 3 point loss and a 39 point loss. It would also be pretty easy for the committee to compare the two teams simply by looking at what happened when they played each other: a 49-10 curbstomping. Conference championships are only factored in when all else is considered equal between the two teams. I don't see how that's the case here. Michigan is the obviously better team and their resume makes that clear.

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llandson

November 29th, 2016 at 11:50 AM ^

If Clemson and Washington both lose, which I estimate has a roughly 15-20% chance of happening, I wouldn't be surprised if OSU was 2 and Michigan 3. The main reason being that everyone in the world wants to know what would happen between Michigan and OSU on a neutral field. 

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bdneely4

November 29th, 2016 at 11:42 AM ^

I am going to be an optimist here and say we are #4. Most people say we are one of the top 4 teams in the country and I am not sure who can deny that with our resume. Now it is up to the other 3-4 teams that have a shot to still play and prove to the committee that they are better than us.



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bdneely4

November 29th, 2016 at 12:54 PM ^

but if they do this it will prove to me that they are not interested in putting in the 4 best teams.  Washington has not proven they are better than Michigan YET.  Therefore, should not be ranked ahead of them.  If they beat Colorado on a neutral field and look better than Michigan did against them at home, then they fully deserve to be ranked ahead of Michigan.  In my opinion, the rankings tonight will prove to me if they are really interested in ranking the 4 best teams in the top 4 based off their resume.  Next week is a different story since Michigan does not get a chance to play again and improve/decrease their position.  Washington, Penn State, and Wisconsin do get that chance, so make them prove they are worthy of that 4th spot.

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Durham Blue

November 29th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^

The speculation stuff can be fun and entertaining.  But part of me is annoyed we're relegated to this conversation.  Just win that lousy ass game at Iowa and there is little to no drama.

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bdneely4

November 29th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^

One other thing, by putting us #5 and Washington #4 would be the committee saying Washington is better than us with a better resume which is just not accurate. In my opinion, if we are #4 after tonight we have a legit shot at making the CFP. If we are #5 or worse, the committee is not going to put us back in the top 4. Just my amateur opinion though. Go Blue!



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ak47

November 29th, 2016 at 11:47 AM ^

At this point Michigan has one shot to make the playoffs and that is to only drop 1 spot and be ranked at #4 this week.  Doing that leaves a buffer between us and the Big ten champ and means the comitte wouldn't have to move us up without playing a game to get into the playoff.  It is certainly possible though not likely, Washington and Clemson both dominated and crushed the eye test so I don't see it happening.

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MGoMarley

November 29th, 2016 at 11:48 AM ^

But I could see us staying put at 3. We don't play this week so that gives the committee opportunity to move those other teams ahead of us, so there is no reaso to drop us now when they can next week. The committee wants us in. Saban Harbaugh= ratings. We definitely need Washington or Clemson to go down next week

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JacksFootball

November 29th, 2016 at 11:48 AM ^

feels that OSU is a complete lock, then we are in good shape. That game was as much a draw as any this year. Again, money rules the day and we may be the beneficiary of this greed.

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