CFP Chance

Submitted by Catchafire on
A loss is bad, but this was a quality loss. If wisconsin, Penn state loses, and Louisville, and any other team loses above us,there is still a sliver of hope that we make it. Am I right? Can it happen???
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1 percent

November 26th, 2016 at 5:59 PM ^

Yes there is a chance, slim as it might be. Need OSU to win the B1G and one of Clemson or Washington to lose. Then there is a chance. Withlut that though? Nothing.

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Blusqualo

November 26th, 2016 at 10:51 PM ^

I have a source that tells me that 100% of the CFP committee love children (in the non-creepy way), and that will weigh on their minds along with the 49-10 drubbing. I think if the committee places that much of an emphasis on conference championships, then OSU is out in place of Colorado/Washington or Oklahoma/Ok St.

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Blusqualo

November 26th, 2016 at 6:03 PM ^

If minny beats wisky, there are 4 west division co-champs, wiscy goes to bten titlegame, psu loses this week or next week and wiscy wins big ten. We will have beaten the champs of each division, and our only two losses are on the road at the co-champs of each division, one a 1 point on a last second kick, the other a dbl ot loss. Oh and wash or clem lose a game. Too easy, buy your cfp tickets!

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titanfan11

November 26th, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^

"I'm not being crazy, just wishful thinking" kind of way.

1.  Alabama appears to be on their way to winning the Iron Bowl, so even a loss to Florida in the SEC title game would not eliminate them (1 spot gone)

2.  Say Clemson were to lose to either South Carolina or Virginia Tech, especially in an ugly game

3.  Sparty beats Penn State, and Ohio State beats Wisconsin next weekend (2nd spot gone)

4.  West Virginia loses to Iowa State tonight, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma next weekend to win the Big 12 (committee may then view them as a 1 loss team, but who knows?  Also, with a home loss to a West Virginia team that got blown out by Oklahoma would hurt)

5.  Utah beats Colorado, putting USC in the PAC 12 title game, where they beat Washington again (I think with other chaos, the committee would actually put USC in despite having 3 losses).  

What am I missing?  

PS...what ifs are the best, aren't they?

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Ty Butterfield

November 26th, 2016 at 6:06 PM ^

So if PSU wins the Big Ten title game, is the committee really going to put in OSU ahead of PSU? If so, there is no reason to have a conference title game. If OSU can get in over a team they lost to who is also a conference champ then the whole thing is a complete joke.

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SeattleWolverine

November 26th, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

They should. This isn't the old days where all the teams played each other once and the records were important. There are weird tiebreaker outcomes and scheduling inequities that come up in a 14 team conference with divisions. The best teams, nor the teams that had the best seasons, frequently don't win the conference. PSU benefitted from not playing WI like M and OSU did or they might well not be in the B1G game. And at best WI, if they do beat PSU winds up 8-2 in conference games while OSU is 8-1 and we're 7-2.

Or let's just make it simple. If you've watched them all season, does anyone really believe that either WI or PSU is better than M and/or OSU?

 

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ColeIsCorky

November 26th, 2016 at 6:10 PM ^

Greater than 0 chance, but MSU needs to step it up here or its 0. The winner of the B1G championship game is going, so that needs to be Ohio St. And MSU loses a stupid fumble. Getting closer to 0 as I speak. Ugh.

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SeattleWolverine

November 26th, 2016 at 6:10 PM ^

It's not as far-fetched as some people are making it out to be. You need Sparty or Minnesota to win today, or yeah, we're toast but both are in competitive games. As long as one team loses and then either OSU to win next week. Or a WI team that picked up a 3rd loss today loss to MN today wins beats PSU so both are 3 loss teams. No way a 3 loss team is getting picked, B1G championship or not. 

 

Then all you need is a USC win (preferable since they have 3 losses) or a Colorado win over UW. But if Colorado wins, then we have a good shot but they will have a conference championship. And you've still got to beat Oklahoma/OK State in the vote too which should happen if you've watched all of these teams but who the hell knows what the committee will do.  I mean that's probably 50/50 but a decent shot. 

But yeah, if PSU and WI both win today we are completely fucked.

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SeattleWolverine

November 26th, 2016 at 6:36 PM ^

I get it. You're done and just angry. 

But yes, we have a very very small chance that depends on several games breaking our way. Yep, it's like 2% or something. That said, some pretty weird shit happens in college football from time to time.

I prefer to hold onto that possibility as long as I can. If you wanna just be pissed off though or say it's unlikely or we dont deserve it or whatever because we lost then go for it. 

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MgoBlueprint

November 26th, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

Slim, but I think there's a chance if the following things occur:

Minny over Wisconsin
Wisconsin over penn st in the B1G
Colorado over UW
Clemson loses in the acc title game.

The ou/ok st question still remains.

Extremely unlikely, but possible



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SeattleWolverine

November 26th, 2016 at 6:32 PM ^

I don't know that you necessarily need Clemson to lose. It can just be the first 3 things that you said with Clemson, AL and OSU in. Maybe. It's our only chance but also requires us winning a vote as a 2nd at large team from the B1G over our 3 loss B1G conference champ, over a Pac 10 champ with 2/3 losses (which is why UT over CO and then USC over UW is a better scenario for us) and then winning a vote over Oklahoma, WI, USC/CO which should in theory happen with USC/WI having 3 losses and our superior resume compared to OK and the head to head over CO. But taking 2 at large teams from one conference is how it should be, but doesn't necessarily seem like something the committee would be likely to do.

Anyway, unless MN scores soon we're done. 

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Bb011

November 26th, 2016 at 6:18 PM ^

Very very small. Small enough to not even worry or think about it. There would have to be absolute chaos today and in championship week for us to even have a chance. 

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Perkis-Size Me

November 26th, 2016 at 6:20 PM ^

Dude give it up. We're out.

Get ready to settle for the Orange Bowl while we watch OSU miraculously stomp its way to another national championship and all the JoeBot Apologists get rewarded with potentially a Rose Bowl.

At this rate I'm concerned about our ability to ever beat OSU whole Meyer is on their sidelines.



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SeattleWolverine

November 26th, 2016 at 6:40 PM ^

There's no more Elliott and Barrett won't play out of his mind like Cardale Jones did in 14. OSU is not beating AL unless Jalen Hurt turns the ball over 4 times. Which...might happen, but probably not. It won't happen because I don't think we could take another fucking OSU championship and they are way overdue for some bad karma.

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Wolvie3758

November 26th, 2016 at 6:29 PM ^

Ive been saying this all week..IF and its a IF..either Clemson or Wash loses a game then its possible..Exactly WHO? besides  Bama and OSU would have a better resume..Michigan just lost to the #2 on the road in Double OT  a game they controlled throughout....Michigan would have 3 wins over top 10 teams..not top 25 but top 10...If Colorado comes thru they would also have wins over the Big Champ (toughest conf in the country AND the PAC 12 champion....Find me another  resume that stacks up to that...oh yeah that 1 pt loss on the road to Iowa Could be another top 25 team by TUES...YES   its posible...They could squeeze in at #4...I dont really see them dropping to much after this..If u want the top 4 Michigan has a chance..root againt Clemson and Wash

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Cold War

November 26th, 2016 at 6:29 PM ^

Let's say Wisky beats PSU in the B1G title game after losing to Minnesota. Washington loses to USC. Olkahoma beats Oklahoma State.

Alabama

Ohio

Clemson

Michigan

 

Who would beat us out?

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columnatedruins

November 26th, 2016 at 6:39 PM ^

Colorado.  Wisconsin.  Or any 2-loss team that doesn't finish 3rd in its conference.  I would NOT be surprised if Pac12 or BigXII champ gets 4th seed & a shot at being destroyed by Bama.

Not saying they DESERVE it but it is tough to give that 4th seed to a team that lost to the team that they already let in who ALSO didn't qual for their conference title game.  If you follow.

The Iowa loss sinks us, even if the rest of the world loses one more game.  And they all won't.

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BLUEDOZER

November 26th, 2016 at 6:53 PM ^

After reading most of the posts on this and other threads I gotta say ...... SUCK IT UP YOU FUCKING CRYBABYS !!! Damn man I'm as big a Michigan fan as any of u , but you gotta face facts. We didn't play good enough to win in a tough environment on the road !! It's true. Yeah we didn't get the calls. I get that. But you can't make mistakes on the road and win close games. And all you whiners saying we'll never beat osu just go be state fans or something would you please. We had the talent to win but not the mental toughness. That will come in time. ITS ONLY YEAR 2 for Harbaugh. They have came lightyears from 2014 and improved greatly from 2015. So calm down. Damn !!

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SeattleWolverine

November 26th, 2016 at 7:08 PM ^

UW and Clemson win out. PSU blows out WI. Helps a little if OK State beats Oklahoma. And even then it is pretty unlikely that OSU gets left out while UW and PSU get invited instead. 

And...PSU is still getting in in that scenario, which-- fuck that both from a football and from a cosmic justice standpoint. 

If WI wins, and UW and Clemson win out, the B1G probably only gets one team. I don't see WI getting in over OSU but one can always dream. I guess we'll see if all of the people who keep citing TCU and how important conference championships are turn out to be correct. Think they are going to be disappointed when a head to head win by OSU over WI, a better resume of wins, and an extra loss for WI trumps that championship trophy. 

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Blusqualo

November 26th, 2016 at 10:36 PM ^

1 Alabama 2 OSU 3 Clemson 4 The good guys ...Colorado beats UW. Peach Saban vs Harbaugh Fiesta Watson vs Barret If UM OSU win, huge hype neutral site rematch Bama Clemson win, 2015 rematch Bama OSU win 2014 rematch UM Clemson Jabrill & Defense vs Watson & Offense America wants these 4 teams and storylines America needs this

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