CFP Chance

After watching this game, I learned that Michigan is a top 5 team. The other thing is the Big 10 is going to have to separate osu and Michigan. You have a scenario where the 2 top teams in the big 10 are left out of the championship game. Michigan and osu are going to be the best teams for a while.. every year one of us will get screwed. They separate us and we play a crossover game.

What's Sparty's chance?

Rose Bowl?

Hopefully OSU looked crappy enough with their inept offense that they will be out. That is if PSU blows out Wiscy and Washington blows out USC.

After watching this, I have complete confidence in this team to destroy any team in a bowl game given 3+ weeks of preparation/healing. Having said that, I would like better play calling on third down that doesn't completely rely on Jabrill to make a man miss.

Damn, this makes me sick!  17-7 with 16 min. left in the game, interception.  Worst UM loss in my lifetime, just wish we came out on the winning end.  So frustrating.. Michigan beat PSU by 39!!  I guess it's time to move on.  Go Blue

Alabama v PSU, Clemson v Washington. Alabama v Washington final

The commitee looks at resumes to determine the 4 best teams. We beat PSU by 39 and would both have 2 losses. Conference title is weighted but it's not defined how much. Same with Wisconsin, we have the head to head and same number of losses. The resume is clearly in Michigans favor with 3 top ten wins. PSU has 1 top 10 win and that's all against the top 25. Wiscinsin has no wins against the top 15. If the commitee really evaluates resumes Michigan and OSU are easily ahead of PSU and Wisconsin. Clemson or Washington need to lose a game and there is a real chance.

At this point I think our CFP hopes are gone. The winner or WI and PSU will go and so will OSU. To me it looks like this:

1. Alabama regardless of they lose to Florida in the SEC Championship game (which they won't)
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson/Washington
4. PSU/WI

Outside looking in: Michigan, Oklahoma

There are several possible shakeups to the above due to the conference championship games but I don't see a scenario where Michigan gets in now that Wi and PSU winning today.

I guess bring on Western Michigan? Would that be sexy or would they choose someone else?

I see 1) Alabama 2) Clemon 3) Washington 4) Winner of B1G.

Assuming Clemson/Washington win their games. I don't care if you have 1 loss, if you don't win your coferenece, you shouldn't be in the CFP.

There is about a zero chance at this point. That Iowa loss is the dagger. Can't be 3rd in your conference and be considered at top 4 team in the country.

it will be interesting to see who goes. May be delusional, but could a PSU team we beat 49-10, or a Wisconsin team with two losses including to Michigan, or a Colorado team we beat with 2 losses go in front of Michigan?  Just conversation.  No hostility intended.

If Washington or Clemson lose in their title game UofM has a legit chance. If both lose I would expect them to get in. If Colorado wins the PAC 12 I think UofM gets in.

Rankings this week:

1. Bama
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. Washington
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin
7. PSU

Winner of the Big 10 Championship Game jumps us next week, and the committee decides between Washington (assuming they win the PAC) and the B1G Champ.  We finish 6th, 5th if Washington loses to Colorado/USC next week.  Possible Rose Bowl, probable Orange Bowl. Oh, and OSU is not falling despite not winning their division regardless of what your feelings tell you. 

Clemson blowing out SC. Clemson and Washington will probably win their conference championship games.

I see OSU falling to fourth for not playing in a championship game. I think WI will beat PSU in the B1G championship game.

1. Alabama

2. Clemson

3. Washington

4. OSU

5. Wisconsin

6. Michigan

 

If PSU were to win I think they would be #5 which would be unfair given the OSU loss to PSU.

Michigan will have defeated WI, PSU, and CO. Only losses are on the road with a last minute FG to IA and a Double OT to OSU (#2).

If CO gets by UT and WA MI will have defeated PAC 12 and Big 10 Champ. No one has a better resume including Alabama.

If Pedd State and Colo win their conferences, that drops Wiscy and Wash below us, and boosts our strength of schedule by having beaten 2 conference champions, with probably the best 2 losses of any of the the top 10 teams. And those wins over PSU and UC we blew the doors off of both of those teams. A loss by Clemson helps of course. I think we have a decent shot, but some dominoes need to fall our way. But if it comes down to us or PSU for that last spot I like our odds.

Wishful thinking at best, but there's no logical/rational set of circumstances that would make this happen other than the good graces of the CFP Committee. That said, the Committee would completely trash any sort or credibility it had should it elect to do so. Essentially, M is lumped into the pool of 2-loss teams, from which the ones to emerge will be those that win their conference championships, with OK/OK St being a de facto CCG.  Playing a 13th game gives those championship game winners an advantage over M, the same as what happened when Florida jumped #2 M in 2006 after they beat Arkansas in the SECCG.

Nate Silver's College Football Predictions page lets you diddle scenarios until you're blue in the face. It starts with M @ 2%, and the best result I was able to generate was a 5% chance.

I think the following CFP ranking is crucial. If we are still #4 over washington, we may still have a chance. Talking about the #4 spot. what if Colorado win the pac12 champ, how the commettee to chose M, colorado and Wisky/PSU. We beat them all. So commettee wil completely turn to a Big12 champ to avoid the controversy? 

Do they really belong? They're still a year or two away. Everything still needs to improve, from QB and ball security, to linebackers, to 4th quarter love of Lloyd Ball.

With the results of other games today i think it's over. Even if Clemson and Washington both lose next week, they'd have to take 3 teams from a single conference and i just don't see it. They'd take some shit like Oklahoma

Given that Penn State won, won't the committee take the Big Ten Champ? In which case what about OSU v UM redux? Or 2.0. Neutral site New Year's Day.