Chance at #1 Recruiting Class in '17?
Steve Wiltfong of 247 thinks it is possible-
Hail.
October 19th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^
The defense needs elite talent along the defensive line like They have now. Couple that with great corners and Don Brown will keep the defense up to snuff
October 19th, 2016 at 12:43 PM ^
I don't think I was advocating the MSU 3 star build them up model.
I said top 5 classes...which requires a lot of 4 and 5 star talent. My point was, with an offense heavy on fullbacks and tight ends, we may have a few more 3 stars than other elite programs.
If Harbaugh takes a 3 star or lower at skill positions, it will be because he sees something in their film, not because that is our best option based on recruiting rankings.
October 19th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^
Very neat BUT I WANT SATURDAY TO BE HERE NOW. NEED FOOTBALL NOW. I hate bye weeks so much.
October 19th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^
October 19th, 2016 at 12:17 PM ^
There is no doubt that on a macro scale the more highly regarded recruits you bring in the better your team does. Though take stars with a grain of salt. My take is as long as Harbaugh gets who he targets that is more imporant. Why? Because I trust Harbaugh and his coaching staff over any recruiting agency. If our staff is all excited about a 3 star that they pursue as hard as a 5 star, I will be content. This is with the caveat that this is not done out of resigination that we cannot recruit the 5 star.
October 19th, 2016 at 1:09 PM ^
October 19th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^
Which site holds more weight with you? 247, Rivals, ESPN, or Scout? Sorry if i left anyone out.
October 19th, 2016 at 12:20 PM ^
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October 19th, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^
seems to balance things out
October 19th, 2016 at 12:29 PM ^
I believe there was a post a while back about how different sites' rankings compare to actual production. Don't feel like digging it up.
I believe it indicated Scout and 247 are pretty close at the top.
October 19th, 2016 at 12:24 PM ^
1) I know next to nothing about any studies or stats correlating recruiting classes to winning championships, but I suspect the key difference between a #5 class and a #1 class is typically at the top end -- overall talent level may not be a huge drop off, but a #5 class probably doesn't have nearly as many playmakers on offense or defense as a #1 or #2 class. Guys that have a reasonable chance of becoming stars in the NFL. Wisconsin can produce good running backs with great stats every year behind a great O-line, but they're never serious contenders for a national championship. They simply lack elite players at the "skill" positions.
2) It's exciting to think about contending for a national championship on a regular basis, but I think the bar is higher -- WINNING multiple national championships in a short span of time. Dynasties are rare (Alabama now, USC before that, Miami before that), but I can't imagine that Harbaugh will strive for anything less. Beat OSU regularly? Great, but not great enough.
3) If we can pull off a national championship this year (I know, a lot of things will likely need to go our way --significant QB improvement, kicking, lack of injuries, refs, and perhaps a bit of luck) we still need to raise the talent level. Ideally at least 1 potential NFL star at every level of the offense and defense and 1 or 2 more waiting in the wings. #4 and #5 classes just won't cut it.
October 20th, 2016 at 1:15 AM ^
Yes, Alabama has had multiple #1 classes over the last 4-6 years.
What this has done for them is quality depth, not so much that their handful of stars is way better than other top teams' handful of stars.
During last year's NC game when they had to substitute throughout the game, you had guys like Hand *sigh* making key third down stops in crucial situations late in the game.
There was no fall off when the 1s were out. That's how you win NCs.
October 19th, 2016 at 12:33 PM ^
For this to happen we would have to land 6 - 7, 5 star players and OSU and Alabama would have to miss on a number of their final pieces, for us to finish 1 or 2. Top 5 seems more likely and feasible.
October 20th, 2016 at 1:21 AM ^
I'm good with top 3.
Let's be honest, to be looking eye to eye with Alabama and OSU in recruiting - to be mentioned in the same breath as them for the top class in the country - is an astounding accomplishment in a short amount of time.
We've blown past recruiting heavyweights like USC, Florida, LSU, Texas, FSU, Clemson, etc. who always occupied that position.
I did not think it was possible as a northern school with no home-state advantage for us to do this.
October 19th, 2016 at 12:34 PM ^
Top 10 is fine with me. When the careers of the players are done, I don't think there is much of a differnce between classes 1-10.
October 19th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^
October 19th, 2016 at 12:59 PM ^
to get there. But, think with the decommits the coaches are feeling really good about some higher ranked kids out there. Wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of more decommits before it's all said and done and we fill those spots with higher ranked 4 and 5* kids.
October 19th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^
This staff will make our class the TOP performing group regardless of the final official recruiting standings. But the sound of 1, 2 or 3 is pretty freaking appealing.
GO BLUE!!
October 19th, 2016 at 1:24 PM ^
are dismissing Wiltfong's opinion by crunching recruiting numbers themselves and telling us that these scenarios are not possible. Guys, he is an insider, he is basing this off of inside information that no one else knows publicly, I think I am going to just take his word for it, be happpy, and watch this thing play out. Steve crunched the numbers too and is not just throwing darts here.
October 19th, 2016 at 3:15 PM ^
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October 19th, 2016 at 5:34 PM ^
As you stated, I can reasonally believe that Wilfong will not throw out the prediction out of blue. As an insider who needs to tread the fine line between diverging too much info (and upset unintended valuable sources) and tossing some carrots for us hungry M fans, his statement has a lot of heavy meat of truth.
October 19th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^
We're in good shape for a lot of great recruits, and it's real encouraging to hear about some of the highly-rated kids that are looking like serious possibilities -- Leatherwood, Browning, Austin Jackson. But it still seems like quite a stretch to say that we have a chance at the #1 class.
247 Sports has a neat tool that allows you to calculate the class score if certain individuals are added or subtracted to the current list of commitments. So I checked to see where we'd stand if we added the following:
- Alex Leatherwood
- Baron Browning
- Darnay Holmes
- Donovan People-Jones
- Isaiah Wilson
- Austin Jackson
- Drew Singleton
- Cesar Ruiz
- Nico Collins
- Chuck Filiaga
- Ambry Thomas
- Tarik Black
- Oliver Martin
- Jaylen Kelly-Powell
I also assumed we would lose Kurt Taylor.
Based on 247's system and their composite rankings, that would kick us up to 314 points, up from the 220 we have now (for 11th place). 314 would rank first today, but Ohio State and Alabama (293 and 289 points now) both look like they could go over 314 by signing day, since they only have 17 and 21 commits, respectively. Getting all of the above would bring our total to 29.
Obviously we could reel in some people not on the above list, but this would mean an exceeptional finish and I think the highest-rated class Michigan has had in the recruiting services era. That it still might not get the top rank shows what a tall task that is.
October 19th, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^
You forgot Najee Harris in your calculation...
October 19th, 2016 at 5:33 PM ^
I didn't forget him. I intentionally didn't add everyone who's been mentioned as a possible take for us.
October 19th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^
Fuck OSU.
October 19th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^
I suppose its possible, but I honestly doubt it. Ohio State has what seems like ten five-stars coming in next year, and Alabama always signs at least 2-3 of them on NSD.
I'm in agreement with WD. As long as its in the top-5, that's really what separates us from the rest of the pack. You're going to have top guys that flame out and diamonds in the rough that become superstars. Hopefully we hit more than we miss.
October 19th, 2016 at 2:33 PM ^
Recruiting class rankings are ordered by totalling up the ratings of each player. If I recruit 5 guys each rated 80.0 (400.0 total) and you recruit 4 guys rated 95.0 (380.0), they will give me the number 1 class. You will be #2. Even though you've recruited better individual players.
I don't know what Ohio State's number is, but I've heard they'll be capped on the lower end of the scholarship count. Michigan will be close to 30 guys last I heard. If Michigan passes OSU, it will likely be because of quantity making up for OSU's almost unbeatable quality in this class.
(I think)
October 19th, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^
Attention campers. Lunch is cancelled due to lack of hustle. Deal with it.
October 19th, 2016 at 2:26 PM ^
http://michigan.247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/Targets
October 19th, 2016 at 2:47 PM ^
October 19th, 2016 at 11:35 PM ^
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October 19th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^
Whichever recruits allow us to have a lock-down defense, and at least a productive offense -- I'm cool with whatever number we end up at.
IHWT (in harbaugh we trust)
October 19th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^
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October 19th, 2016 at 3:59 PM ^
with a better class than OSU, and likely Alabama as well. #3 would be the best I would see us doing. But, I'd certainly take that. With the way this staff can develop talent, we'll be in great shape in the coming years. My other prediction is that Michigan will do even better regionally in 2017 and 2018 recruiting with both MSU and ND turning into dumpster fires this year.
October 19th, 2016 at 4:12 PM ^
UM Coaches REALLY like what they're seeing from hawkins this fall at Suffield Academy and now believe that he will be a part of the 2017 recruiting class.
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October 19th, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^
from good sources. Michigan has a great coaching staff, great fans, great public university, great college football town, and a lot of great young men in the program. Why not ?, especially with the staff in place now fully able to go into ABC (always be closing) mode when the season is over..
