Way Too Early 2016 Football Snowflake Thread

Submitted by MaizeMN on

It's snowing in May. The season is still 112 days away, but it seems like we're starting to get a feel for the direction/composition of the team. It would be interesting to hear other views on what condition our condition is in. I titled this as a snowflake thread because I'm expressing my thoughts in absentia of statistical analysis. It's more of a "how do you feel about the program"  post, but I welcome any analysis that supports or refutes the opinions below. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. GO BLUE

1. The Offense has a bevy of talented RBs and an experienced OL that should be able to open holes large enough to ensure no 27/27 performances. The WR/TE combinations pose nightmarish matchups for any Defense unfortunate enough to draw the assignment. Many opposing LB and CB bodies will litter the field when MICHIGAN launches its aerial assault. The QB situation is promising, yet unresolved: Harbaugh + O'Korn, Speight, Morris, Peters = UberRudock 2.0.

2. The Defense is good. Scary Good. The DL will be stout against the run and QB pressures, hits and sacks should be plentiful when opponents foolishly choose to pass. Doc Brown will transform a talent-rich LB corps into a bunch of marauding, ball hawking guys and dudes. The MICHIGAN DBs are prison guards, opposing WRs the inmates after behaving badly. 

Saturday Side Note Moment of Zen: Checking BTN for softball game start time and saw "Classic Minnesota Football" broadcast listing. It was the 2015 Bowl game against CMU.

MGoBoard
Football

Pit2047

May 14th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^

Well we'll have a returning starter at QB and while we lose Butt, we do bring back a boat load of talent there, so much I think it might make up for any question marks at WR. I don't know if we will have bad OL play with Drevno coaching and we will have Isaac and Walker in the backfield. I can see how the offense might excel especially with 2017 being the first time since 2010(!) that we've had 3 years of system continuity with a competent offensive coaching staff. I'm expecting a HUGE step back on defense though with us losing our 5 best players in the secondary, Ben Gedeon, and at least 4 DL out of our 2 deep with the possibility of Hurst or Mone declaring early. We are going to need young guys to step up big time and a monster 2017 DL class. Add all this onto a tough schedule (FL, Cinn, Air Force as noncon. And MN, WI, and Purdue as crossovers) and I see at least 3-4 losses.

Joined: 06/12/2013

MGoPoints: 4375

JonnyHintz

May 14th, 2016 at 9:30 PM ^

You're expecting the offense to excel but they have the same issues that the defense will have that you expect to struggle. Returning a starting QB is good and all, but you're losing 3/5 offensive linemen, with the possibility of losing a 4th in Cole. You're losing your top RB and unless Isaac or Walker have big year, you don't have another real option. You lose Butt and unless Wheatley or Bunting emerge, you will have the same issue as the RBs. Then you factor in the fact that you're losing your top two WRs as well. So that returning starter at QB is going to lose the bulk of his protection (the line will be worse in 2017 than 2016 just based on players leaving), likely won't have a proven backfield partner at RB, and loses his top 3 (possibly 4 depending on how Peppers is utilized offensively) receiving targets. So returning a starting QB that loses his protection and his receiving targets spells an excelling offense? That's not to say that the offense can't be good in 2017, but there really isn't anything to base a solid opinion on that says they will excel. You lose virtually 90% of your offensive production you're getting in 2016. That doesn't spell an offense that will excel. Again, not that they can't, but there's nothing to show that they will or should.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48493

JonnyHintz

May 14th, 2016 at 11:42 PM ^

So your plan for an offense to excel, is to rely on redshirt freshmen or sophomores? I'm not even going to mention the true freshmen running backs being "good-great." Harbaugh recruits or not, you're still inserting unproven and inexperienced players into the starting lineup. As I said, they could very well be good. But you're not going to sit there and tell me that redshirt freshmen/sophomores are going to excel. You're batshit crazy if you're making that assumption when those same players are going to prom this month. Again, I've said this multiple times. It's technically possible, but you're making expectations based on absolutely nothing at that point. First or second year players are not going to carry a team in all likelyhood, so to expect them to do so is crazy.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48493

uminks

May 15th, 2016 at 12:53 AM ^

But  the 2015 skill players will. I heard the same whining about having no receivers once Roundtree and Gallon were going to graduate but Chesson and Darboh stepped up and played well, in fact Chesson has worked his way as the number 1 receiver last season.

Joined: 11/10/2009

MGoPoints: 32049

Mr Miggle

May 15th, 2016 at 7:12 AM ^

They are perfact counter examples to your claim. They are really good now, but weren't ready to play at a high level when Gallon and Roundtree left.

Aren't the only skill position players from 2015 Higdon and Perry? The 2016 class is going to be called on to contribute early. There's a lot of talent there, but we'll have a huge void of experience and production on that 2017 offense. We should have a good QB, but there's no guarantee that whoever wins the job this year will keep it.

Joined: 10/07/2010

MGoPoints: 47693

JonnyHintz

May 15th, 2016 at 10:01 AM ^

You don't think the 2016 class will contribute? Choose an opinion. You just listed strictly 2016 and 2017 recruits as reasons the offense will excel, and now they won't contribute? Well which is it. 2015 skill players? As in who? Do you want to take a look at that class again? Here: http://michigan.247sports.com/Season/2015-Football/Commits now show me where these skill players are that you expect to contribute from that class. Now you said you heard the same whining, and for valid reasons. Nobody stepped up at WR the year after Gallon and Roundtree left. We had to move a tweener TE (Funchess) over to WR to have a competent passing game. Darboh and Chesson didn't emerge until this season, as Juniors. They were largely irrelevant in the passing game when Gallon graduated. Now please. Choose an opinion. You keep changing it and you're still being proven wrong every time. Quit claiming that the 2016 recruits will be good-great and then in the very next comment say that they won't contribute. Then go on to say that the 2015 skill players will lead, when we recruited two skill players in that class, and one is a slot receiver and the other is our 5th string running back. The 2016 class WILL be heavily relied on to contribute. But there is nothing about relying on a group of redshirt freshmen or sophomores that says an offense will excel and carry a team that will also struggle on the defensive side for the same reasons. Again, I don't expect Michigan to struggle to make a bowl game, but both the offense and defense will take a step back from 2016. EDIT: Meant to be in response to uminks. Replied to wrong comment.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48493

JonnyHintz

May 14th, 2016 at 11:46 PM ^

But they will hurt. You don't lose 3/5 (possibly a 4th), top RB, top two WRs, and arguably the best TE in the nation and not feel those losses. I'm not saying we lose those players and miss a bowl game or anything, but we are definitely going to miss those players. Any team would when you lose 75% of your starting lineup.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48493

UMForLife

May 14th, 2016 at 11:45 AM ^

I am excited to see what we have in store on offense. After a few weeks of practice, our team looked great against FL, which is a great defensive team. If we can replicate that on offense, we will be unbeaten going into the last week of the season. I am really excited to see the TEs this year. I have a great feeling about this year. Harbaugh is a magician and I am so looking forward to the season. Go Blue! Ps- not a fan of snow in May. Need my golf fix.

Joined: 11/04/2013

MGoPoints: 63393

turtleboy

May 14th, 2016 at 11:50 AM ^

I am really happy that the run game showed signs of maturity during the Florida game. The guards stopped whiffing blocks, fewer dumb penalties, and I didn't even remember them pulling and running right past the lb they were supposed to obliterate, either. It was a solid, wonderfully boring performance, and I loved every bit of it. The rbs, as well, kicked their chronic bad habit of avoiding gaping cutback lanes and instead finding the nearest pile of bodies and running straight at it like a moth to the flame. They all had a fantastic bowl game, took what was given to them, and even showed up an nfl caliber SEC defensive line. They should be able to carry that momentum into the easy start to next season.

Joined: 04/22/2011

MGoPoints: 35130

SC Wolverine

May 14th, 2016 at 1:23 PM ^

This will be a big deal and it is my main concern going into the new season.  Yes, we have experience on the OL, but much of that experience has not played consistently well.  So the Florida performance was particularly encouraging, as is the general confidence that Drevno deserves for a unit he has worked with for two years.  If we can run the ball consistently, our team will be very difficult to handle.  Harbaugh/Fisch should have the passing game going by conference season -- we just need to be able to run the ball.

Joined: 08/18/2010

MGoPoints: 7794

taistreetsmyhero

May 14th, 2016 at 11:54 AM ^

It's been so many years since we've had an OL that can consistently create holes for our RB (especially against legit teams) that I will believe in our run game once I see it. We have no proven QB. Our LBs may be worse than last year, which is a scary thought.

But, on the positive side, we potentially have the best DL/DB combo since our glory years. That should definitely give the linebackers a ton of support to minimize effects of mistakes and make easy plays to gain confidence. On offense, we have a ample talent at the skilled positions that all got better as the season progressed. We have good RB talent and an experienced OL that definitely could finally be the graters that a Stanford or OSU have been. We have two options at QB that had a good spring. Plus, our non conference is a joke so they have tons of time to get settled in the offense before a good team plays us.

For me, this year is playoff or bust. On paper, we are better than every team on our schedule. Neither MSU or OSU have had problems beating us on the road. A playoff birth means we won at least 2/3 of Iowa, MSU, and OSU. Anything worse than that is a bust in my opinion. It's time for us to win big games on the road, and we have the coach and talent to do it this year.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Joined: 08/08/2012

MGoPoints: 39396

JonnyHintz

May 14th, 2016 at 11:56 PM ^

Not to mention, if Ohio State loses to 2 Big Ten teams, that means they PROBABLY lose to Oklahoma in non-conf as well. At which point, losing to a 2 or 3 loss team that late in the season, you're out of the playoff conversation. Ohio State would be out of the top 10 and that would drop Michigan out of range of playoffs.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48493

JonnyHintz

May 14th, 2016 at 11:51 PM ^

You're batshit. Losing to Ohio State means a few things. 1. Ohio State would go to the Big Ten Championship instead in all likelyhood. 2. IF Ohio State has 2+ Big Ten losses and Michigan goes to the Big Ten Championship anyway, that loss would put the playoff put of reach as it would cause a significant drop in the rankings for Michigan. 3. You'd be relying on a team from the West division to come in with an unbeaten record and Michigan to win big in order to sneak back in. 4. You're then hoping for other top teams in the discussion to lose in their respective conference championship games. While technically possible, it is unrealistic. If Michigan loses to Ohio State, Michigan is out of the playoff conversation for all intents and purposes. You can't lose that late and get in.

Joined: 01/11/2015

MGoPoints: 48493

readyourguard

May 14th, 2016 at 12:26 PM ^

I don't know, I'm still on the fence about our running game. We'll have a new LT and C, new QB, and no big-play threat at RB. I have confidence that Drevno and Harbaugh will make the most of what we have. I just don't know if it's enough for a conference championship.

Meanwhile, on D we have all new LBs, 2 DL returning from injury, a newish (kinda) starting safety, new DB coach, and a nee coordinator with a new scheme.

I'm optimistic but not convinced we're plowing through the Big10 on our way to the playoffs. The good news for everyone is I'm usually way off the mark on these type of prognostications.

Joined: 08/21/2008

MGoPoints: 40986

Alumnus93

May 14th, 2016 at 12:58 PM ^

season hinges on two things... 1. if the qb play is decent. easy to unappreciate Rudock. 2. if the LT plays serviceably. kugler may need to step up to kick Cole back. Newsome is still in his salad days. that's it. everywhere else is solid.

Joined: 09/10/2009

MGoPoints: 9684

Rasmus

May 14th, 2016 at 1:02 PM ^

For me, the biggest worry is questions about the OL/RBs and whether they can give the new QB time to adjust early in the season without being under constant pressure. It's not just about winning -- it's about giving the QB time to build confidence.

Joined: 07/02/2009

MGoPoints: 2412

MChem83

May 14th, 2016 at 4:16 PM ^

We've got guys who have been in the program for a long time, not like Rudock, who had to start right after he stepped on campus. No excuse for our starting QB taking 6 or 7 games to find his groove this year.

Joined: 04/17/2014

MGoPoints: 414

ThatTCGuy

May 14th, 2016 at 6:23 PM ^

I wouldn't worry about our RB situation. Deveon Smith + Ty Issac and Kareem Walker as changeups is probably the second or third best RB situation in the conference (behind Penn State and maybe Sparty/Iowa). Our O-Line was also creating pretty nice holes in the spring game and in the Citrus Bowl against Florida. I think the running game will take shape this year.

Joined: 01/20/2015

MGoPoints: 3544

Perkis-Size Me

May 14th, 2016 at 1:15 PM ^

Undoubtedly Harbaugh will play the guy that gives Michigan the best chance to win, but I doubt it's a true freshman.

Even if he was hand picked to play in Harbaugh's system, he's still a freshman adapting to the speed of the college game. But hey, it's happened before so what do I know?

Now 2017 will be where it gets interesting when you add McCaffery into the mix. Harbaugh is going to make both of those guys into damn good QBs.



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 105865

jblaze

May 14th, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^

The season depends on if Michigan can finally stop a read option spread offense. It hasn't been done yet, but that's all that matters.

Like last year, Indian will give OSU the blueprint and OSU will adapt it to exploit our weaknesses.

Joined: 08/29/2008

MGoPoints: 19372