Rudock, O'Korn, & QB Roster Management
I don't know about you guys, but I am tired of talking and thinking about the game this weekend.
So, I wanted to get a discussion going about the "ideal situation" that the Michigan program has brewing in its QB roster, and in doing so, discuss the pivotal roles that Rudock is playing this season -- despite his limitatons -- and that O'Korn (likely) will play in 2016 and 2017.
While discussing freshmen playing Coach Harbaugh commented on QB's and OLinemen benefitting from a first year redshirt. Discussions concerning the starting of freshmen QB's primarily focus upon their propensity to make "freshmen mistakes," i.e., inexperience. While true, the "roster management" ramifications of starting a freshmen QB are not as readily apparent, but can be far more damaging long term.
Early playing time for a QB, more so than any other position, has a tendency to scare off other potential QB recruits -- they don't want to potentially sit behind the guy for three years and only get one year at the helm. The results are multi-class talents gaps, with the results being not only a shallow depth chart, but also a higher likelihood that the next top QB will also be a freshmen starter, thus perpetuating the issue.
Much of the discussion concering Rudock is about his liabilities versus is assets. While I think those are important, I think far more important is what his, and O'Korn next year, presence on the team does for Michigan's QB developmental cycle going forward. Basically, Michigan's QB roster is shaping up to have a nice consistent flow from redshirt, developmental 3rd string, back up, and starter for two seasons.
Below is the current Michigan QB roster. Obviously, Rudock is gone, and guys like Cleary, Moores, and Thompson are not likely to factor into the equation, but you never know.
- Jake Rudock 5th
- Brian Cleary Sr
- Garrett Moores Jr
- Shane Morris Jr
- John O'Korn Jr
- Wilton Speight So
- Matt Thompson So
- Zach Gentry Fr
- Alex Malzone Fr
Harbaugh has spoken about the desire to get Morris a RS (hopefully he gets it), and O'Korn effectively redshirted this season. Assuming Shane's redshirt works out, both Gentry and Malzone redshirt this season, and incoming QB's redshirt, next year the QB roster will be as follows (years of eligibility):
- Shane Morris ('16, '17*)
- John O'Korn ('16, '17)
- Wilton Speight ('16, '17, '18*)
- Zach Gentry ('16, '17, '18, '19*)
- Alex Malzone ('16, '17, '18, '19*)
- Brandon Peters ('17, '18, '19, '20*)
-
Vic Viramontes ('17, '18, '19, '20*)
* assuming 5th year given
From the sounds of things next year's starting QB competition is O'Korn's to lose. At this point, many find it hard to believe Morris is ever going to be a starter at Michigan, so he's either going to stay and be a back up, or decide to transfer. Either way, I'm guessing O'Korn starts '16 and '17, with Morris, Speight, Malzone, and Gentry competing for the back-up spot.
Obviously projecting forward is hard, but I think it's clear that Michigan's QB roster is not going to have huge gaps in it, and the possibilty of having to start a true freshmen -- or even a RS freshmen -- is extremely remote.
As we're seeing this season, a team usually only goes as far as their QB can take them. The prize for winning the QB competition should be two seasons as the starter, and if there is to be three year starter it almost guaranteed that his ascension is one of overwhelming talent, and not necessiry.
To me, this bodes very well for the reestablishment of Michigan as a national power, and is EXTREMELY exciting.
Thoughts?
October 18th, 2015 at 11:14 PM ^
Michigan below OSU if M beats OSU?
Anyway, just win the next game. That is all I am thinking about.
October 19th, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
We're 15 with 2 losses, they're 7 with 0. If we win out and OSU only has a loss to us we only need to be within 1 spot of OSU in the CFP rankings. There's a decent chance that we could end up 8 and OSU 7 with MSU at 8 or 9 when this is all over. Luckily, our two losses were both heavily watched. For voters, the question is going to be whether or not Michigan should be punished for playing Utah on the road and losing by a touchdown.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:32 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:33 PM ^
both Morris and Speith seek opportunities elsewhere.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:40 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:35 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:37 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:53 PM ^
Don't forget we only lost one player on defense after 1997 and there was a significant drop-off. Replacing a shut-down corner is difficult.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:33 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
I think most people view the 1998 defense based upon the ND and Syracuse games. Yeah, the defense didn't perform that great in those games, but the only reason UM entered the OSU game with a chance for the outright conference title was because of the defense. The defense was rock solid in games 3-10 on the 1998 schedule.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:09 PM ^
You lose your 3 LBs too. And both buck DEs. MSU game shows we lack a prime time pass rusher - that needs to come out of the LBs or buck guy. Its not a big deal vs middling Big 10 teams but when you play a top 10 team you need those types. Not sure our system has em at this point. Lack of pressure on Cook (until Henry went off in the last drive), Wilson, and Barrett/Cardale types is not a good recipe.
Offense brings back everything but QB and Glasgow and AJ as you say. Need some speed outside of Chesson on offense next yr. Damn Peppers looked so fast on offense - shows what a diff a game breaker can do.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:16 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:51 PM ^
Dantonio was having fits about Peppers on offense. Back to back time-outs the first time. Then later, they showed him again signalling the defense when Peppers was back in. They were obviously geared up for him--Peppers looked great anyway. I was really wishing they had used him more. Although I guess if not for the insane last play, it would have been enough. *Sigh*...or *sob*.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:51 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 12:54 AM ^
Who does MSU have coming back? Don't they lose some very key positions?
October 19th, 2015 at 9:21 AM ^
MSu loses a lot after this year
UM loses a ton after 2016
MSU loses Cook, Burbridge, Allen and Conklin is projected as a 1st round LT so would be silly to come back but Calhoun and Cook did it so I guess its possible. They also lose their LG whose name I forget off top of head. So if Conklin goes they lose C, LG, LT.
On defense they lose Calhoun, Lawrence Thomas, and Heath which are 3 of their DL starters. Ed Davis who was hurt graduates. RJ Williamson who was hurt graduates.
Their strength on offense goes from passing game to running game and their strength on defense will go from DL to linebackers and maybe DBs if they develop them. They started 2 freshman safeties so I assume in a year their DBs will be solid but they dont have a Dennard or Waynes at this point.
After 2016 season UM has a ton to replace so next year they have to make hay.
Peppers Lewis Stribling Henry Wormley Glasgow Clark Gedeon Charlton Godin
Magnuson Braden Kalis Chesson Darboh Butt Smith Green Drake
MSU will be young in 2016, and UM in 2017.
October 19th, 2015 at 6:44 AM ^
I was figuring that with MSU in rebuild next year, we had a chance ot start a winning streak against them. Oh well. Steel in the spine.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:41 PM ^
Junior but we'll get him for two years as he's gonna be a RS Junior next year.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:42 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:45 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 7:22 AM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:41 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 18th, 2015 at 10:04 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:41 PM ^
Gentry will be a situational guy.
Peters '18, '19 and hopefully '20
October 18th, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^
Viramontes is going to be a situational guy. I have a feeling he's going to be a beloved player here like Denard.
Pure athlete. Could play QB, RB, FB.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:44 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:00 PM ^
I do see Viramontes playing both ways though, like Marecic at Stanford for Jim. He'll be at H-Back though, not QB. He's not good enough at QB to warrant teaching such a complicated position, with the depth we will have next year.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 18th, 2015 at 10:24 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 9:27 AM ^
I'd love that, he can be a dude. However, unless the university burns to the ground, I really don't see him not choosing Oklahoma. They recruit Fresno really well and have been a little out in front of us for a while
October 18th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^
Interesting topic as I was so depressed by our inability to get the ball down the field thru the air I spent this morning studying O'Korn.
I get there is hype around him and I am sure by Aug 2016 we will have convinced ourselves he is russel Wilson but some caveats
2013 was excellent. 2013 was with TCUs current OC who left the program to go to TCU in 2014.
2014 was horrid, I mean Mitch Leidner bad. Scary bad.
Yes #Harbaugh but I am not going to assume anything until I see it on the field. And why is Gentry totally discounted?
============
Going back to O'Korn and focusing only on his good year and not his horrible year my 1 surprise was how low his yards per attempt was (7.0 YPA) despite having a lot of games with 45-70 yds as his longest completion. That doesnt mean the throw was that long, just means the longest total play and in a TCU type offense that can come off a 9 yard pass.
Comletion % was 58% which in and of itself is fine but you'd expect a higher YPA combined with a sub 60 completion rate for a "top end QB". But again this was a true freshman.
So I expected a bigger arm and more of a risk taker from the hype I had heard on here but indeed he is more of a west coast QB type. Which is fine, just not what I thought he was. 7.0 ypa in a TCU type offense is quite low. Boykin's YPA is 10+ this year for example and of course Boykin is a special player but again Air raid is a hell of an offense for any QB to get yards in.
Last thing I did was try to find comparable QBs in 2014 so I had full year stats so I could mirror what O'Korn did in 2013 (in a lesser conf). So I went with YPA so I could see the type of risk taker, I went for a somewhat similar total yards, and a somewhat similar TD to INT ratio. 3 names stood out in P5. The last is hilarious.
- Sean Mannion, Oregon State
- Jacoby Brissett, NC State
- Jake the Snake, Iowa
Mannion was a Mike riley guy who had a decent year but not what most expected going into 2014 as he was considered a high NFL draft pick candidate. Not a ton of talent around him though. Brissett was a UF transfer who was in his 1st year starting. And Jake - well he lost his job and yelled at for being too conservative.
Looking ahead a year, Brissett is having a nice senior yr with a substantially higher completion rate while his YPA jumped up half a yard. I find that suitable progression - if your YPA is going to be relatively low your completion rate should pop. Mannion we can't do year over year since 2014 was his last year in CFB. And we know the Jake story well.
So again I fully expect a massive hype train on O'Korn by Aug 31, 2016 but it will be interesting to see what kind of QB actually is developed. I'd happily take a Jacoby Brissett version 2015 if that is what we get.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/stats/_/id/512191/jacoby-bri…
And with all due respect I hope of the variable outcomes, its not another Jake the Snake.
Let me end this by saying I presume Morris is gone and Harbaugh is doing him a solid by preserving 2 years of eligibility so he can transfer and play immediately elsewhere if he graduates by this spring.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:53 PM ^
Not many people (aside from HS highlights against bad New Mexico HS teams) have seen Gentry play.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:56 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^
He is the ONLY proven commodity next yr.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:19 AM ^
23/5 td/int in 2014, 8/1 this year. Damn, i would take that any day.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:43 AM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^
I expect Morris and/or Speight to transfer. We have way too many talented young guys on or coming onto the roster in the next year that I see some attrition.
I'm very confident in our QB depth going forward. We should have a number of guys available for the forseeable future.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:54 PM ^
I think if we're all being honest with ourselves, that's why Harbaugh is trying to redshirt Morris. To give him two years somewhere else.
October 19th, 2015 at 6:39 AM ^
He'll give him another shot, a fair shot, in spring ball but after that Morris will leave. Speight might stay unless they "suggest" to him that his career is going to consist of taking meaningless late 4th Quarter snaps.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:51 PM ^
What happened with O'Korn in between 2013 and 2014?
October 18th, 2015 at 10:18 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:53 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:17 PM ^
Not a dual threat QB. Incl sacks he ran 77x for 104 yds in 2013. He ran 32x for 17 yds in 2014.
So assuming he did not get sacked 50x (NCAA counts sacks against rush yds) he is not that mobile. I think a lot of people think O'Korn is russell wilson. Based on what I read here the past 6 months I thought he was that too. He is not. Probably Shane Morris level mobility - i.e. a "good athlete" playing QB.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 11:37 PM ^