Rudock, O'Korn, & QB Roster Management
I don't know about you guys, but I am tired of talking and thinking about the game this weekend.
So, I wanted to get a discussion going about the "ideal situation" that the Michigan program has brewing in its QB roster, and in doing so, discuss the pivotal roles that Rudock is playing this season -- despite his limitatons -- and that O'Korn (likely) will play in 2016 and 2017.
While discussing freshmen playing Coach Harbaugh commented on QB's and OLinemen benefitting from a first year redshirt. Discussions concerning the starting of freshmen QB's primarily focus upon their propensity to make "freshmen mistakes," i.e., inexperience. While true, the "roster management" ramifications of starting a freshmen QB are not as readily apparent, but can be far more damaging long term.
Early playing time for a QB, more so than any other position, has a tendency to scare off other potential QB recruits -- they don't want to potentially sit behind the guy for three years and only get one year at the helm. The results are multi-class talents gaps, with the results being not only a shallow depth chart, but also a higher likelihood that the next top QB will also be a freshmen starter, thus perpetuating the issue.
Much of the discussion concering Rudock is about his liabilities versus is assets. While I think those are important, I think far more important is what his, and O'Korn next year, presence on the team does for Michigan's QB developmental cycle going forward. Basically, Michigan's QB roster is shaping up to have a nice consistent flow from redshirt, developmental 3rd string, back up, and starter for two seasons.
Below is the current Michigan QB roster. Obviously, Rudock is gone, and guys like Cleary, Moores, and Thompson are not likely to factor into the equation, but you never know.
- Jake Rudock 5th
- Brian Cleary Sr
- Garrett Moores Jr
- Shane Morris Jr
- John O'Korn Jr
- Wilton Speight So
- Matt Thompson So
- Zach Gentry Fr
- Alex Malzone Fr
Harbaugh has spoken about the desire to get Morris a RS (hopefully he gets it), and O'Korn effectively redshirted this season. Assuming Shane's redshirt works out, both Gentry and Malzone redshirt this season, and incoming QB's redshirt, next year the QB roster will be as follows (years of eligibility):
- Shane Morris ('16, '17*)
- John O'Korn ('16, '17)
- Wilton Speight ('16, '17, '18*)
- Zach Gentry ('16, '17, '18, '19*)
- Alex Malzone ('16, '17, '18, '19*)
- Brandon Peters ('17, '18, '19, '20*)
-
Vic Viramontes ('17, '18, '19, '20*)
* assuming 5th year given
From the sounds of things next year's starting QB competition is O'Korn's to lose. At this point, many find it hard to believe Morris is ever going to be a starter at Michigan, so he's either going to stay and be a back up, or decide to transfer. Either way, I'm guessing O'Korn starts '16 and '17, with Morris, Speight, Malzone, and Gentry competing for the back-up spot.
Obviously projecting forward is hard, but I think it's clear that Michigan's QB roster is not going to have huge gaps in it, and the possibilty of having to start a true freshmen -- or even a RS freshmen -- is extremely remote.
As we're seeing this season, a team usually only goes as far as their QB can take them. The prize for winning the QB competition should be two seasons as the starter, and if there is to be three year starter it almost guaranteed that his ascension is one of overwhelming talent, and not necessiry.
To me, this bodes very well for the reestablishment of Michigan as a national power, and is EXTREMELY exciting.
Thoughts?
October 18th, 2015 at 11:42 PM ^
Not via stats no. I did watch some youtube of him and it showed him scamper 8-9 yds for a first down on 1 play but if that was his biggest run of the year I dont know. Jake actually has some decent scoot to him. O'Korn looks to be a similar athlete but less prone to actually run in games.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:58 PM ^
Whoever it is, I just hope another year under Harbaugh's tutelage is enough to mold a competent QB. I am sick of losing games because the offense can't score enough points because teams can just load up against the run, sick of holding my breath any time I see a Michigan QB drop back to throw. It's been eight years since Michigan has had a QB whose arm truly had to be accounted for by the opposing defense (no disrespect to Denard but he was not a consistent downfield threat, and no disrespect to Devin but unfortunately we'll never know how he'd have been with a competent coaching staff and non-sieve O-line). Had Michigan possessed that yesterday, no fumbled snap would have saved MSU because they'd have been down by double digits instead of two.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:05 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:39 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 11:18 PM ^
I agree, to an extent, and discussed starting a true freshman QB in my OP. First off, Rosen is good, but looked shakey at times in several games this seasons, most notably against Stanford. He made those classic "freshmen mistakes."
But, it will be interesting to follow UCLA QB recruiting in the years to come and see if they too fall into the pattern I spoke of. One of the ones that was most damaging was Texas with Colt McCoy and Garret Gilbert.
When McCoy went down against Alabama everyone was shocked that Texas, that super talented team, had no serviceable upperclassmen QB's to replace him, and were relegated to playing a true freshmen Gilbert in what amounted to his first meaningful action.
This was due to the fact that every QB Texas took was crap because all the good ones they recruited went elsewhere because they didn't want to sit behind McCoy. It wasn't until McCoy last season in which they got an elite QB in Gilbert.
I'm not saying that it cannot work out -- it does, at times. But, I think it's bettter for everyone -- player and program -- if there is a multiyear developmental process for QB's. Starting 1st or 2nd year guys should only happen in the case of multiple injuries. We're paying the price for Michigan's roster mismanagement.
October 19th, 2015 at 11:20 AM ^
Not sure how hard Carr was recruiting blue chip QB's during Henne's tenure, but they didn't land a blue chip until Mallet committed when Henne was entering his senior year.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:26 PM ^
I have to agree. I have been very happy to see Michigan win some games big so far this year. But it is driving me nuts that we cannot complete a long pass to an open receiver. Cook had a guy open heading to the endzone yesterday on one defensive slip and hit him easily for the TD. Michigan just could not do the same. A couple of downfield passes were completed, but they were not the "hit the open receiver in stride" variety. They haven't been all season. It's not just that Rudock has missed a couple--he hasn't hit any. I find myself often seeing Rudock look and look and I yell at the TV, "Throw the ball!" but then when he does, I am reminded of why he might be better off not. And that is very frustrating. I don't doubt he is the best option they have. But what would the score have been yesterday if Cook and Rudock had switched teams?
October 18th, 2015 at 11:00 PM ^
"But what would the score have been yesterday if Cook and Rudock had switched teams?"
I was thinking about that all game. Watching Cook drop dimes into the arms of a near completely blanketed WR was very frustrating to watch. I hate pineing over another player, especialy a foking Sparty tool like Cook. But, it really doesn't matter which I watch, they've got vastly superior downfield passing as compared to Michigan right now.
I love Jake for his grit and leadership, but his ceiling is the ceiling Michigan is bumping into as a whole, not the other way around.
October 19th, 2015 at 6:33 AM ^
As you say, "it doesn't matter." We got what we got. Like the Seals say, we deal with it and make the best of it.
October 19th, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^
100% correct. If we get a very good QB with a grasp of the system this team will be very hard to stop because it will make the running game that much more hard to stop. This offense is such a throwback and so keyed on exploiting mismatches that the dual-threat of air power and run power is going to give teams fits. Play action glory, baby.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:03 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:08 PM ^
Michigan's football game vs. Hawai'i is in Ann Arbor.
Would love to go to Honolulu you guys. And then Lihui after that.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^
latter
October 18th, 2015 at 10:17 PM ^
Burns a year, but you can redshirt and preserve it.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^
It will be open competition between O'korn, Morris, Gentry, Speight, Malzone and Peters. I've heard that O'korn has been wowing teammates and the coaches with his arm. Harbaugh may be working his great QB coaching skills. I'm not too sure about Morris, he may be damaged goods but since Harbaugh decided to RS him, he does see potential and he could turn it around. Speight may not see much playing time this season, so I'm not sure if being backup will help him?
My guess is the real competition in 2016 will be between O'Korn, Gentry and Peters. Harbaugh will probably RS Peters, and O'Korn will probably be the starter with Gentry as his backhup. Morris and Speight will probably transfer and Malzone will be the 3rd stringer. Overall, I think the QB play will be much superior but I'm glad Rudock decided to transfer here since we have a chance of having a real solid season with him as QB.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:38 PM ^
To Sten's point about the rotation from year to year, here were Michigan's starting QB's for a span of years (if my memory is correct): Grbac, Collins, Dreisbach, Greise, Brady, Henson, Navarre, Henne. All of these gentlemen ended up in the NFL (with a range of career types: Brady to Dreisbach). Navarre and Henne both had to start younger than one might have wanted, but that was quite a string before them of consistent "torch passing" that Sten is describing. I would love to see that sort of thing start up again.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^
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October 18th, 2015 at 11:01 PM ^
The guy has none of the flashiness, no speed but he's got the touch and seems from what I have seen of his videos to be very calm and smart in the pocket, very similar to Brian Griese. He's my pick to rise to the top at some point. Still think Gentry might be turned into a TE.
October 18th, 2015 at 11:25 PM ^
I didn't mean to relegate anyone in my OP. I undertook the topic and then got a bit overwhelmed trying to detail all the potential scenarios. The only thing I feel pretty confident about is that O'Korn will be the starter next season. Will Gentry, Speight, Malzone or even Peters (not to mention Morris should he stay) beat him out in '17? I don't know.
I've heard good things about Malzone, and what we saw of Speight throwing deep he acutally looked better than Rudock from an arm strength standpoint. Three things I know for certain:
- the best QB will play, no matter what class he may be
- Harbaugh would prefer to have an upperclassmen starting
- competition will bring out the best in all these guys and make them better QB's
October 18th, 2015 at 11:44 PM ^
No, wasn't specifically referring to your post, just a general consensus I have seen over the months regarding Malzone. We've got a lot of talented QB's lined up and yes O'Korn looks insane in his videos. Imagine if we had the ability to go deep against Utah and MSU, wow, game over by the second quarter.
October 19th, 2015 at 8:30 AM ^
Harbaugh is going out of his way to buy Morris an extra year. I find it hard to believe he is doing it simply because he likes the way Shane holds s clipboard. With the influx of QB's it doesn't make sense to go out of your way to keep a QB on the roster for an extra year when you think he doesn't have a chance to play.
In addition, Shane without question has the best arm on the team. There are not that many QB's that can throw a 35-yard out route on a line. Arm strength, like speed, cannot be coach. All the other things of being a QB can. For a QB guru like Jimmy, having an arm like that on the roster has to have him salivating. The key to Shane is can he put all the rest of it together. Another year under Jimmy and I don't see why not.
October 19th, 2015 at 8:32 AM ^
Agree. Next year will be the best stable of QBs that Michigan has seen in a long long time. Should be an amazing competition which is pretty high stakes for the winner.
October 19th, 2015 at 8:57 AM ^
The WR position depth, or lack of, is something that may be being overlooked. Jehu and Darboh have both been great this year in both the passing game and especially the run game with blocking downfield.
As it stands now Drake Harris will be the #1 guy next year, atleast in terms of production so far.
October 19th, 2015 at 10:09 AM ^
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October 19th, 2015 at 6:56 PM ^
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October 19th, 2015 at 9:11 AM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
Tell me something good about O'Korn. Honestly, his stats at Houston are very underwhelming. He was REPLACED as starter in '14 after 5 games? After completing 52% of his passes with 6 TDs and 8 INTs vs (ahem) UT-San Antonio, Grambling, BYU, UNLV & UCF? Houston was 2-3 when he was benched and closed the season 6-2 without him.
This is the guy? We're just handing over the keys to two seasons to this guy?
I'm not saying he's horrible. I don't know anything about him. I see he was mildly recruited and had a very nice freshman year. I'm just saying there will be about 15 highly rated QBs on the roster next season. Seems strange that everybody here just automatically tabs him as the future starter when, at a glance, I see some serious red flags.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
October 19th, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^
Your first paragraph is pretty much what I was looking for - some reasonable explanation for (what appears to be) getting run out of town in Houston.
October 19th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
I like the way you laid this out. Having depth and viable options at the most important position on the team is critical. How often are the blue chips- 4 and 5 star guys successful in college? Say if you define sucess as starting for at least 2 years? How about if you change that to first or second team all conference at least one year?
I asked the question without knowing the answer, but my sense is that the percentages are a maybe 50 percent or less as to the first category and what- less than 5 percent for the second level?
A lot of guys don't pan out because they don't continue to develop or they get hurt. I don't care how good a candidate looks- I want options. As pointed out here, spacing is also important. As laid out in the post, in less than a year, JH has created a logical well thought out depth chart going forward. This increases our chances for the success we crave, significantly.
October 19th, 2015 at 7:12 PM ^
winning TD against OSU 2017. Take it to the bank.