Rudock, O'Korn, & QB Roster Management
I don't know about you guys, but I am tired of talking and thinking about the game this weekend.
So, I wanted to get a discussion going about the "ideal situation" that the Michigan program has brewing in its QB roster, and in doing so, discuss the pivotal roles that Rudock is playing this season -- despite his limitatons -- and that O'Korn (likely) will play in 2016 and 2017.
While discussing freshmen playing Coach Harbaugh commented on QB's and OLinemen benefitting from a first year redshirt. Discussions concerning the starting of freshmen QB's primarily focus upon their propensity to make "freshmen mistakes," i.e., inexperience. While true, the "roster management" ramifications of starting a freshmen QB are not as readily apparent, but can be far more damaging long term.
Early playing time for a QB, more so than any other position, has a tendency to scare off other potential QB recruits -- they don't want to potentially sit behind the guy for three years and only get one year at the helm. The results are multi-class talents gaps, with the results being not only a shallow depth chart, but also a higher likelihood that the next top QB will also be a freshmen starter, thus perpetuating the issue.
Much of the discussion concering Rudock is about his liabilities versus is assets. While I think those are important, I think far more important is what his, and O'Korn next year, presence on the team does for Michigan's QB developmental cycle going forward. Basically, Michigan's QB roster is shaping up to have a nice consistent flow from redshirt, developmental 3rd string, back up, and starter for two seasons.
Below is the current Michigan QB roster. Obviously, Rudock is gone, and guys like Cleary, Moores, and Thompson are not likely to factor into the equation, but you never know.
- Jake Rudock 5th
- Brian Cleary Sr
- Garrett Moores Jr
- Shane Morris Jr
- John O'Korn Jr
- Wilton Speight So
- Matt Thompson So
- Zach Gentry Fr
- Alex Malzone Fr
Harbaugh has spoken about the desire to get Morris a RS (hopefully he gets it), and O'Korn effectively redshirted this season. Assuming Shane's redshirt works out, both Gentry and Malzone redshirt this season, and incoming QB's redshirt, next year the QB roster will be as follows (years of eligibility):
- Shane Morris ('16, '17*)
- John O'Korn ('16, '17)
- Wilton Speight ('16, '17, '18*)
- Zach Gentry ('16, '17, '18, '19*)
- Alex Malzone ('16, '17, '18, '19*)
- Brandon Peters ('17, '18, '19, '20*)
-
Vic Viramontes ('17, '18, '19, '20*)
* assuming 5th year given
From the sounds of things next year's starting QB competition is O'Korn's to lose. At this point, many find it hard to believe Morris is ever going to be a starter at Michigan, so he's either going to stay and be a back up, or decide to transfer. Either way, I'm guessing O'Korn starts '16 and '17, with Morris, Speight, Malzone, and Gentry competing for the back-up spot.
Obviously projecting forward is hard, but I think it's clear that Michigan's QB roster is not going to have huge gaps in it, and the possibilty of having to start a true freshmen -- or even a RS freshmen -- is extremely remote.
As we're seeing this season, a team usually only goes as far as their QB can take them. The prize for winning the QB competition should be two seasons as the starter, and if there is to be three year starter it almost guaranteed that his ascension is one of overwhelming talent, and not necessiry.
To me, this bodes very well for the reestablishment of Michigan as a national power, and is EXTREMELY exciting.
Thoughts?
October 18th, 2015 at 9:19 PM ^
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October 18th, 2015 at 11:26 PM ^
The kid is currently on the team, he loves Michigan, and is being redshirted by Coach Harbaugh to get him a chance to be coached up so that he can become a productive member of the QB staff.
That photo is just disparaging and flat out rude to Shane, and is not much different than the losers posting ridiculous crap about Blake O'Neill.
IMO, that photo should be banned here.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
The feeling I have is that it is definitely not for lack of practice and feeling their way around Morris' ability, if you will, throughout the spring and into the fall camps and probably even into the season really. It could be a combination of subpar coaching and a lack of technical knowledge from the previous coaching staff that stands in the way - it probably is mainly that - but at this point in the season, barring a protracted injury to Rudock, you likely will not see Morris and that result may speak loud enough in its own way (we don't really know for certain, of course).
October 18th, 2015 at 9:49 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:40 PM ^
I have no supporting evidence, just my interpretation of the data points.
Shane gone
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October 18th, 2015 at 9:56 PM ^
Just read your post now after writing a novel below about O'Korn...., I wrote almost the identical thing at bottom of this thread. Almost identical language hah.
Mediocre minds think alike.
October 18th, 2015 at 11:48 PM ^
Unless Shane is graduating this year you are both wrong. Morris redshirting and transferring after the season would force him to sit out next year which would leave him with 1 year of eligability, the same he would have if he stayed here next year and grad transferred. Morris has a legitamate shot to play next year though he will probably end up the backup
October 19th, 2015 at 1:39 AM ^
I thought I remembered reading somewhere back in the spring that Shane was on pace to graduate in Spring '16.
When I read that I thought this might be a possibility. Harbaugh just seems genuine enough that he's not going to screw some kid over, especially a QB. He sees things as a QB. If Shane wouldn't be on pace to graduate early and leave I am sure he would have been allowed to leave the team and transfer immediately somewhere.
Nothing against Shane at all. Wish he would have developed as hoped for. Hope he finds the right fit and looks great (better not be sparty though.)
October 18th, 2015 at 10:08 PM ^
The book (or rather what I have heard) on Morris is that he's just not that accurate of a thrower. Cannon for an arm but not much touch. Also 3 O-Coordinators in 3 years. Let him redshirt and learn the offense.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:45 PM ^
When has Shane played good football in his life? I'm not talking about his ability to throw it far or do well in 5-on-5 competitions in shorts. I'm talking about actual football.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:12 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:57 PM ^
I would not be surprised to see 2 QBs leave this offseason. Kids want to play.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 11:28 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:12 PM ^
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October 18th, 2015 at 9:13 PM ^
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October 18th, 2015 at 9:12 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:13 PM ^
It's looking like there is actually a very good chance Morris will be able to use this as a redshirt year. Assuming Harbaugh is doing this on purpose, he obviously sees something in him. But I don't know, man.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:16 PM ^
WD, do you think if Hill inquired about coming here, we would take him.
He is probably going to get a 6th year. I guess its up to him if he wants to even play football, but now with Magnum, BYU might want to start moving forward without him.
Plus Harbaugh recruited him to Stanford.
Even if he isn't a full time QB here, he could be a weapon that is only on scholarship one season.
An intriguing option.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:21 PM ^
BYU fans think that Mangum is their option for next year because of how he's looked this year.
That article I posted talked me into believing he would come here. It could definitely happen.
Definitely worth a read. He's a friend of Harbaugh. When he was rehabbing in the offseason, Harbaugh called him and provided encouragement.
October 19th, 2015 at 12:46 AM ^
He could even be telling Harbaugh, I am interested and don't have to be a full time QB.
It is really funny to see the same people who feared him all offseason (and how we should be so worried) are the ones saying no thanks to him now.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:56 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 11:16 PM ^
OH MY GOD
October 18th, 2015 at 9:17 PM ^
I really do not know enough about O'Korn or Gentry or Morris to say who will start. If your logic is accurate, I see it working out that way and we being all set for years to come. But, there is a good possibility for Gentry to start next year. If Harbaugh is seeing O'Korn from two years back, then we are in for a treat next year and protect the continuity like you are suggesting.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:28 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:04 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:08 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:19 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:23 PM ^
Sounds like O'Korn responds extremely well to coaching, and he's under the watchful eyes of the best damn QB coach in America. He'll have two full years in the system by next season, so he could be a real good one.
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October 18th, 2015 at 10:01 PM ^
His OC left yes.
That said you shouldn't have THAT huge of a drop off if you are indeed the truth. Some dropoff I get. This was massive 180 dropoff. I mean JT Barrett is still a quality QB without Herman.
It will be curious what O'Korn turns out to be - quality of competition is not great in his conf in 2013 but he at least did destroy rutgers and BYU that year. On the other hand he had very rough games vs a quality Louisville D, and vs Cincinnati.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^
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October 18th, 2015 at 9:22 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:23 PM ^
I expect all of our starting QBs to be drafted.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^
Whoever is starting for us next year will only leave the comfy confines of Michigan stadium once in the first seven games (at Rutgers). Not a bad way to break in a new QB.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:29 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:34 PM ^
That's going to be tough. Need MSU to lose two.
October 18th, 2015 at 9:37 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 9:42 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:09 PM ^
Is Sudfeld back from his injury?
October 18th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 11:34 PM ^
October 18th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^
Sparty has low odds against Ohio State and they've barely beat almost everyone they've played this year, including Purdue and Rutgers. They still have games against teams that are ok (definitely better than Purdue and Rutgers), such as Nebraska and Penn State. I'd say there is a better that 25% chance that they drop two games, especially with their paper thin depth on both lines. B1G Championship and even a playoff spot are in play if we win out. Steely spines, one game at a time, and all that stuff.
October 18th, 2015 at 10:19 PM ^
According to Massey Ratings, MSU has a 45.083% chance of losing at least 2 games. Meanwhile, his ratings give us a 21.851% chance of winning out. I think the best thing to hope for is that UM, MSU, and OSU are all 7-1 in conference play at the end of the season and that the comittee looks at Non-Con games vs Utah and BYU (those teams have to probably win out as well) and puts us either above both OSU and MSU or puts us just one spot below OSU.