Michigan-MSU Vegas spread increasing
After settling around 7 points Monday afternoon, Michigan is now a heavier favorite--8 points on the VegasInsider "VI Consensus" and 8.5 points at some offshore sites. On the offshore site I study the most, the line moved from UM -7 (-115) this afternoon to -8.5 (-110) this evening.
Line moves of a half point in a day or even a full point over 24-36 hours are not uncommon, but it is rare to see midweek line moves of this magnitude between the 12-hour period after the line is released and the 24-hour window between kickoff. My first thought when I saw the jump this evening is that it's injury-related, but that's based only on the line move. It will be interesting to see if any injury updates come out before Saturday.
October 14th, 2015 at 9:36 AM ^
It's moved hard on Friday against NU and BYU, which is fairly normal. We haven't seen this kind of movement mid-week.
October 14th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^
Let me guess: you learned to read at MSU.
October 14th, 2015 at 5:36 AM ^
for Allen's ankle is not good. Could be the same with Conklin and the other dude. My guess is even if they play at least 2/3 are still pretty fucked up. They might not even play.This is just a guess but makes sense given the timing and situation.
The msu O line is in for an extremely rough day
October 13th, 2015 at 11:35 PM ^
I am very interested to see what this line will look like Friday night - most of the sites that at least do spread analysis are upping their projections as well. TeamRankings has Michigan as a favorite by 8 points and a few other sites are posting similar projections. By the stats, we stack up in a way against Michigan State that we definitely have not in a while, I believe - that is to say, being in many regards the more proficient team.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:36 PM ^
I'm going to need to be sedated before this game even starts.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:50 PM ^
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October 14th, 2015 at 12:06 AM ^
I do sleep very well SINCE Jim Harbaugh became Michigan coach ...since GO BLUE !!
October 13th, 2015 at 11:37 PM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 2:35 AM ^
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October 14th, 2015 at 9:20 AM ^
I'm pretty sure Michigan is 4-1 since Utah, which was (for me) a push at +7. Since then...
Oregon St was -14 to -17--cover.
UNLV was around -35--no cover.
BYU -6.5--cover.
Maryland -14/14.5--cover.
Northwestern -12/bet down to 8-10--cover.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:39 PM ^
It's possible, but I also think we are playing much better than we were on the opening weekend. Plus were at home. I like our chances, but I'm still a little nervous as they've really had our number the past 5-7 years. I'm worried this will be a year where we outplay them, but they win due to some turnovers and fluky plays or bad calls. I'm hoping it's the PTSD talking.
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October 14th, 2015 at 12:09 AM ^
I'D agreed with you but most important thing for Michigan Football "focus" on winning this game such as mental toughness ....never letdown ....just keep going until win that game
October 14th, 2015 at 1:19 AM ^
October 13th, 2015 at 11:40 PM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 12:13 AM ^
I got michigan +10 .. 200 plus dinner at a fine gentlemans establishment, bet with a friend before the season. Unfotuantly I have a simlar bet with the same person that the Lions would still have a top 10 defense this year without Suh lol
October 13th, 2015 at 11:48 PM ^
Just wondering:
October 13th, 2015 at 11:54 PM ^
he's banned from betting there (or anywhere else in Vegas for that matter, he is an incredibly "precient" guy!!!!!!!!!), but he was wearing a Michigan sweatshirt.
October 14th, 2015 at 12:02 AM ^
is looking good on the Cubbies but that book that Biff had only gave the scores till the year 2000
October 14th, 2015 at 12:09 AM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 12:12 AM ^
UCLA did beat Washington on November 12, 1955. 19-17. On a last-second field goal.
All the scores given on the radio were the actual scores of the day.
October 14th, 2015 at 1:43 AM ^
Didn't Michigan lose to Notre Dame that day? :(
Edit: No. I guess I was just always upset that Notre Dame was winning against anyone.
October 14th, 2015 at 2:43 AM ^
we didn't play ND for almost 40 years till 1978, I think I rememberr the U-M score being 31-0 over Indiana but not 100% sure.
I know we won that day, the radio announcer gave the score of us winning.
If I'm right about the score it was another shutout, boom baby!!!
October 14th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
I never interested in those ....cuz MOST important thing is to win games ...period
October 14th, 2015 at 1:13 AM ^
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October 14th, 2015 at 12:13 AM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 12:17 AM ^
EXACTLY !
October 14th, 2015 at 5:26 AM ^
and whether or not they win are mutually exclusive.
October 14th, 2015 at 12:57 AM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 5:22 AM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 2:03 AM ^
Mike Dantonio when told the spread was increasing
October 14th, 2015 at 2:29 AM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 5:21 AM ^
It's D'Antoni.
October 14th, 2015 at 3:34 AM ^
Wow, just 6-8 weeks ago this game was a lock for the Spartans according to the analysts. Most have changed their tune. Amazing what a difference quality coaching makes. Just win!
October 14th, 2015 at 3:38 AM ^
imagine if Smith was 100%.
imagine if Mone and Mario were playing.
October 14th, 2015 at 4:11 AM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 4:49 AM ^
Between Vegas and the media, things are playing into MSU's hands--that whole disrespect thing again. I'm sure its being amped up in E. Lansing right now.
October 14th, 2015 at 5:23 AM ^
mouth for 4 quarters.
October 14th, 2015 at 7:31 AM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 7:38 AM ^
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October 14th, 2015 at 8:09 AM ^
Just means that all betting, everywhere, accumulated, is trending towards Michigan and the line has to move to keep the money even.
In my mind, MSU is the value bet here, as points and large margins of victory are harder to achieve in rivalry games. I also like playing the underdog on the money line when I think it has a chance to win, and I certainly think State has a chance to win.
Of course, I would never make such a play, for then my rooting interest would be conflicted, and what fun is that?
If I was in Vegas right now instead of Phoenix, I would lay the points and take Michigan and hope for the best.
I have a good feeling about this game, but it is, after all, a game. Betting spreads do not affect outcomes, If we win, whatever the margin, and whatever I bet, I am going to be very happy with the result.
October 14th, 2015 at 8:14 AM ^
The amount of (over) confidence here sort of amazes me. We've been better this year, but Sparty could well make their best effort of the year. Not in the bag, folks.
October 14th, 2015 at 9:27 AM ^
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October 14th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
with a good strong dash of euphoria
October 14th, 2015 at 8:51 AM ^
October 14th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
UM by 4[0]
October 14th, 2015 at 9:07 AM ^
Marcus Ray said that the game probably "means more" to U-M, but the other analysts disagreed. MSU was expected to be one of the very best teams in the country this year but haven't impressed. One of the comments even suggested that the narrative around a MSU loss would be that their opportunity "had passed."
Fair or unfair, that's probably true. MSU has more to lose in terms of respect and post-season play. A loss by U-M would be seen as a temporary set-back and nothing more.
October 14th, 2015 at 9:14 AM ^
If either team runs the table, they are in the playoffs. And that would lift the (recent) status of the Michigan program more than Sparty.
October 14th, 2015 at 9:25 AM ^
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October 14th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
As more information filters out about MSU's physical condition and all the ORs in the depth chart, and as M appears to have emerged from the NU game virtually injury-free (De'Veon's ankle, maybe?) more betting money flows to M. Of course I think the line should be closer to M -14, but that's just me. Go Blue.