Tell Right Now - How Many Victories This Year

Submitted by xtramelanin on

Mates,

Reset the predictions right now.  Unfortunately 15 victories is out of reach.  We are 2-1 and have looked pretty good, but not great, in most areas of play.  Still legitimate reason to have optimism and ohio and msu aren't going to want to play us since we will be very dangerous no matter what our record is.

So, call it out right now:  How many wins in the regular season?   I say we are 8-4, shading to 9-3.  We are going to happily surprise a couple of teams, derp a game, but overall, good performance strongly trending in the right direction.

Your win prediction is.....

AZBlue

September 21st, 2015 at 2:32 AM ^

passer in HS - a full 10-20% below Malzone and Gentry.

He has great arm-talent but is raw, raw, raw.  The last 2 years probably didn't help to cultivate him much - for sure Borges didn't aid in his development - so it is probably best that he gets the RS this year if possible. 

Bambi

September 20th, 2015 at 10:14 PM ^

What has Shane ever done to show you he can complete deep balls? His JR year of high school? He has a much worse track record than Rudock, this year Rudock included. Rudock has shown he can a viable QB, Morris has not. And Rudock has only been on campus a few months, he will get better.

MichiganMAN47

September 20th, 2015 at 11:52 PM ^

Morris is not better than Rudock. Period. End of story. If it was even close, Morris would have played in the Utah game after that pick-6. Harbaugh is arguably the best evaluator of QB talent in all of football. It's not close. Give it a rest. Quit drinking and go to bed.

plisar

September 20th, 2015 at 10:03 PM ^

This is a tough one, because very few outcomes would surprise me. I don't think we win fewer than 7 games. Given how easy it would be to lose at least three more games, and the fact that I have faith that Harbaugh will do his best to prevent us from getting upended in games we should win, I'm predicting 8-4.

GO BLUE!

MGoblu8

September 20th, 2015 at 10:06 PM ^

8-5, including the bowl. We have to improve our turnover margin though, or it could be worse. Stribling's INT was exciting, but we need more than that to beat better teams consistently, especially if our offense turns it over like they have.

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

September 20th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^

but 7 is more likely than 9 so I guess 7.5 rounds up to 8. I really thought the short passing game and running game would be more consistent already. Defense is as expected. Special teams a little better than expected.

late night BTB

September 20th, 2015 at 10:52 PM ^

Hope you guys are right.
Bc we played so well at home vs unlv?
I hope we can also beat PSU and Minny on the road. Wouldnt surprise me if we dropped one of those.
Our offense is bad. The weapons we do have are LOS to 15 yards out. Running game is suspect. Gonna see a lot of packed boxes daring us to protect and throw deeper.



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UM Fan from Sydney

September 20th, 2015 at 10:30 PM ^

It is way too early to know how good they really are. We have played two terrible teams and lost to the one good one. We will not know how good they are until October 17th.



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LSAClassOf2000

September 20th, 2015 at 10:34 PM ^

If I had to guess, I still tend to believe that a regular season record of 8-4 is attainable, particularly if we can manage a winthis coming Saturday and enter conference play 3-1. I won't predict a bowl game because bowl games are weird basically. 

What will be interesting is to see if Massey and some of the other sites that produce predictive results (most of them update on Mondays, so I wait) move at all. Typically, there is some weight given to previous seasons in algorithms, but I am curious to see if there is a "Harbaugh bump" yet. Probably not, but still...

jblaze

September 20th, 2015 at 10:37 PM ^

Excluding a bowl game. I think Rudock is. Great scapegoat and he's not very good, but our WR's are poor and our RB play isn't good enough to make up for this.

Humen

September 20th, 2015 at 11:09 PM ^

Can you elaborate on what you don't like about our WRs? Aside from freshman mistakes, I think they've been better than expected and an overall strength. Pretty sure I saw Darboh ride a donkey on Saturday



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mgoblue0970

September 20th, 2015 at 11:27 PM ^

What's good about the receivers when the TE is M's most reliable option?  

The other poster is right... and we can say freshman mistakes all we want but the reality is such things contibute to keeping 'W's off the board.   Darboh may have blocked someone the length of the field... check back in when Michigan can do that against someone NOT ntOSU or UNLV.

It's not an idictment of the WRs as people... it's just that Michigan still isn't a very good football team yet.

UMForLife

September 20th, 2015 at 10:45 PM ^

I am sticking to my prediction from the beginning of the year. We lose to UTAH and to no one else until the playoffs. I can't tell who would that be, so I can't guess. I just watched the BYU game again. No way Rudock plays worse than Rosen. On that last drive, UCLA did not throw once and they got the TD. Our Def is better than UCLA's. I would be surprised if we lose to BYU. Cook is pretty good. He can make all the throws unless someone is in his face. I am banking on our CBs to improve, which I already see it. Peppers need to get better, which he can in 4 games. If we take away their running game, we have a chance. If Isaac emerges and Drake is full strength, we have a good chance. OSU will be good. I expect JT to be QB going forward. But this is a rivalry game that nobody knows what will happen. I am expecting us to be much improved by then. I am drinking the cool aid. Go Blue!

Rabbit21

September 21st, 2015 at 11:00 AM ^

Better defense than UCLA is a bold statement. There are likely two 1st round picks in Kenny Clark and Myles Jack, and there are better athletes at Linebacker and in the Secondary. The one area I will say M has an advantage is that I think M's D-line can hold up better in a battle of attrition against BYU than UCLA's did, but UCLA has a really good defense and I don't think M comes out ahead in a straight comparison.

Ecky Pting

September 20th, 2015 at 11:53 PM ^

The BYU QB can be gotten to (UCLA sacked him 4 times, plus 4 TFL's), so the M DL will make it a long day for him. Conversely, BYU had no sacks on Rosen and only 2 TFL's.  I expect Rudock to be comfortable in the pocket, all of which bodes well to make M the favorite.  Minnesota and Penn State look like eminently winnable road games. MN beat Kent State 10-7.  That's the same team that Illinois beat 52-3.  PSU showed some improvement in their 28-3 home win over a decimated Rutgers team that was woeful to begin with. Curiously simliar to M's win over UNLV (21-0 at halftime, a long TD run, exchange of 4Q scores).  In the end, Hackenberg also can and must be gotten to for a victory there.  The rising concern IMHO now is Northwestern, and fortunately M has them at home. So that keeps it at a toss-up to making M a marginal home dog.  From there, if M  continues to show steady improvement, it's conceivable to steal one of MSU or OSU, who have both shown their foibles in the early going.  But let's not be fooled again... what were we thinking about OSU this time last year?

Pessimistically stalled progress after a BYU loss: 7-5. Realistically, 8-4.  Cautious optimism toying with 9-3.

uminks

September 21st, 2015 at 2:48 AM ^

against PSU and I'm thinking we can take the Gophers. This leads Northwestern as a toss up along with BYU. It will be tough to defeat MSU and OSU at home but not impossible. If we win our toss ups at home I think we go 9-3. If we win one of the big games against MSU or OSU we could go 10-2. If Harbaugh, Harbaughs and we win both those game we could go undefeated the rest of the year and make the playoffs!

Moonlight Graham

September 21st, 2015 at 5:53 AM ^

The thing that is troubling me and messing with my earlier prediction of 8-4 with either a bowl win or bowl loss (go into bowl with 3 losses, we get a tougher Capital/Outback-ish opponent; go in with 4 losses we beat the lesser Holiday/Pinstripe-ish opponent) is that in all three games, the one position that has probably played the worst is quarterback. There were certainly some OL issues against Utah but so far you would resoundingly identify Rudock as the player who had the most bad plays (interceptions, blatant overthrows comparable to dropped passes, missed tackles, torched on coverage in other positions). And this was supposed to be Harbaugh and Fisch's area of expertise.



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blueblueblue

September 21st, 2015 at 6:25 AM ^

After the Utah loss I though 5 to 6 wins. But I've been impressed by the leaps the team has taken each week -  especially after week 2. I think this team continues to improve and reaches 9 wins.