for possibilities.

Year/Record/Rivals Avg

Mike Shula:

2003/4-9/3.06

2004/6-6/2.9

2005/10-2/3.03

2006/6-6/3.61

Saban:

2007/7-6/3.28

2008/12-2/3.72

The Game undefeated next year.  Maybe one loss, but not more.  And a top 10 ranking.

Harbaugh is going to kill it.

Is the weighted column correct?  For Alabama for example, the weighted total is less than the regular total.  It also doesnt seem to be the incremental amount.  I am confused.

If the O-line can finally play up to their expectations out of high school this team will be good not great. The defense should be GREAT.

I have way more faith in next year than I had this year. Morris or Speight will probably give us as much as Devin but obviously not in the same way(mobility). 

O and we have a pretty damn good coach who wears a headset.

GO BLUE! 

Thaks for the analysis.........hope it turns out that way.

I've said in a few threads over the last week or so, but the amount of talent Hoke recruited based upon the high school rankings is head and shoulders above anyone else in the Big Ten except OSU.

Yeah, QB is a question mark but Harbaugh has done fine with QB's at just about every stop.  He turned Alex Smith into a viable NFL QB - not Brady/Manning but Smith is a serviceable NFL QB who was just about in the 'bust' catagory before Harbaugh went to the Niners.  In Harbaugh's first year at Stanford he beat USC when Stanford was a 41 point dog and had to start a 3rd string QB.  Whoever starts at QB I'm not expecting them to set the world on fire but I'd like think they will look like a legit Big Ten QB. 

For all of Hoke's faults, he somehow was able to get the players up for the OSU game.  In the last two years they went toe to toe with OSU.  2 years ago it was for 60 minutes and this past year it was for about 53 minutes. 

One thing that gives me pause in thinking he might blast off in his first year is the OOC schedule next year.  IMO, it's not that easy.  First game on the road against what might be a Top 25ish team in Utah.  Home against what can be a fiesty Oregon St team (although they too will be acclimating to a new coach).  UNLV should be a win but BYU isn't going to be a walk in the park.  2-2 isn't out of the realm of possibility heading into Big Ten play.

Need a good QB to emerge.  Simple as that.  Look no further to OSU, a very capable team that was on fire at time (MSU, Wiscy) that couldnt get out of its own way offensively vs VA Tech.  Unless we have one of those epic LSU type defenses from 5-6 years ago where the bad QB overcomes it for every game but v Bama (and we dont) you still need a decent QB. 

Its a cliche but next year will be dictated by QB play.  And its a tougher schedule than most assume due to the OOC.  But most other positions the talent is there to do well enough.  Mission 1 in 2015 is look coherent, get better as the year goes by and settle on a QB... and then run full steam ahead into 2016.

You are certainly right about the QB position.  But give us a strong running game -- with an O-Line that is ready and Isaacs and Green toting the rock -- and our receivers will do just fine.  Canteen, Darboh, Harris & co are plenty talented, and we will have outstanding TE's under Harbaugh.  The OP is right.  We have plenty of talent for an immediate turn-around.  The big challenge is QB, but we have 3 highly ranked guys on the roster for Harbaugh to develop.  We should be competing for a B1G title this coming year.

i would be absolutely shocked if morris, speight and malzone all flame out under harbaugh.  this will be one spring game that i have definite interest in; to see the improvement in these guys.

We should have a decent to very good o line.  We have a stable of beast running backs, full backs, tight ends and H back type guys.  The pieces are there for a good Harbaugh offense.  We have enough options at WR that 2 or 3 should emerge as solid enough.  Doesn't Harbaugh's offense rarely use more than 2 wrs?  Harbaugh is a QB whisperer.  He'll get Shane or Wilton ready to run te offense, even if there are training wheels on the passing game for a while.   We'll also have a great D which should help.

will be better and that will make the passing game better. Harbaugh will have sugar Shane and Wilton ready to play. I believe Shane starts week 1 but by the time we play The Game Wilton is the starter.

Just to add one more point and I dont want to stop the Kool Aid bandwagon but I believe Bama recruited fine (NOT AT THEIR CURRENT LEVEL BUT SIMILAR TO UM THE PAST 5 YEARS) during the Shula era and even with Saban they were like 7-6 in year 1.  So even the best of the best need some transition most of the time, especially when cleaning up a pile of shit from a mediocre coach.  Again if this was a year ago and Harbaugh had inherited Devin I'd probably sing a more upbeat tune as that position simply dictates so much in the sport.  Then again I think Funchess would have been benched for half the year in Braylon Edwards - Carr style if Harbaugh had been coach last year ;)

We kind of have 2 pronged issues in 2015 and 2016 - the passing game in 2015 with WRs/QB (lots of guys need to step up not named Jake Butt) and then in 2016 we lose a ton off our D - the entire LB corp, our best S and one of our starting DE.

With all that said the Big 10 is a shit conference and we hopefully finally have legit position coaches everywhere in 2015.  I want to see a Beilein like year - it will probably start slow but I want to for once see a steamroller build AS THE YEAR goes by.  For so many years we just sort of stagnate around game 5 and nothing changes from there. 

I will say this partly tongue in cheek and partly not - having Hoke was like a scholarship reduction.  Look at Penn State v Michigan the past few years - they are basically the same product.  One team was hit with serious sanctions...the other was hit with Hoke.

I am a die hard 49ers fan as well as a michigan fan, so I am very familiar with watching harbaugh-coached teams develop and play.  The thing that has stuck out to me the most about his first year with the 49ers, is he turned a 6-10 team into a 13-3 team the following year without making much changes to the roster.  Like this michigan team, the 49er team had talented players, but lacked passion, intensity, discpline, and a culture of winning.  Under harbarugh, Vernon Davis went from just a freak athlete at the TE position, to a complete TE who could block and catch very well.  Alex Smith was a broken quarterback before the arrival of Harbaurgh, and had multiple OC's in as many years.  He looked like a complete bust, and QB was the biggest question of concern going into the 2011 year.  Under Harbaurgh, Smith became a very capable QB in the NFL, and although he is not elite, he is a better option than a lot of current NFL QBs right now.  The defense under Harbaugh as been top 5 in the NFL every year in the past 4 years, and was even ranked 3rd in the NFL this year while missing two starters (Dorsey and A. Smith) on the DL, two LBS (Willis and Bowman) most of the year, and both starting corner backs (Brock and Culliver) for most of the year.  Harbaurgh has been able to accomplish all this immediately against good NFL competition, and now will be going up against B1G level college competition.  I have full confidence that Harbarugh can win right now with this team, and will  continue to recuit well for the future.  

Yes we do!

I don't expect the same starting 5 at O line next year.  I think JH will open all positions and let the dog fighting begin.  I expect 1 or 2 changes in the O line.  We will have a new starting center next year for sure.  We need more toughness and some nastyness up front.    

QB will be interesting.  Right now I'm guessing Spreight.  Shane has a shot, but this is his last shot. Bellomy will never see another snap during a game(I hope).  Malzone - I don't think he will ever start for us.  We will go from Spreight or Shane to JH's first QB recruit.   

We get 8 wins next year.  Things get better after that.     

I've been saying this for a while: whoever comes in is going to look like a god. They're taking a team with lots of young and raw talent and (assuming they can coach) are going to be able to win a lot of games in year 1. I said this around the time that everyone knew that Hoke was getting fired. So, I agree with your diary 100%.

As for the people who are concerned about QB play next season, keep in mind that we don't need a gunslinger, we just need a game manager. On top of that, I would say improved QB play is the one thing that should almost be a guarantee each year for the next few years. Andrew Luck didn't develop in a vacuum and I'm also reminded of this article that I read in Harbaugh's first year at SF.

http://grantland.com/features/quarterbacking-made-simple/

The way that Harbaugh does things makes things easier for QBs. While I'm not ready to call us a national championship contender in year one, I see no reason that we couldn't have 10-11 wins.

A year or two ago, almost everyone around here agreed that 2015 was the year Hoke should really come into his own with the talent he was bringing in and the holes that were in the lineup.  Harbaugh absolutely has the talent to work with to be successful.

A great deal will come down to how different the offense and defense will be compared to 2014. Clearly the offense scheme will again be brand new. That, probably means, new terminology alterations in how various plays are blocked, alterations in audibles, etc. How long will it take the coaches to teach this to the offense so that it is internalized and the players can just act or react and not have th think about it? The added experience will certainly help, but that is mitigated by how much new they must learn.  

The impact of another new offesne on the QBs is more profound. Once again none of the QB's have any experience with the offense they will be required to run. I have no doubt each of them will improve fundmentals under Harbaugh, but how quickly can they learn the new offense? The secondary effect of this is that it will be very very difficult to prepare both the starting QB, whomever that turns out to be, and a back up who can step in if required by injury. In 2011, the vast majority of pratice snaps had to go to Denard to get him ready and even in games were there was room on the score board he stayed in because he needed the in game snaps. Devin didn't see the ball much. The team will be a similar situation in 2015, who ever starts will play a lot of whatever garbage time is available. So there won't be a ready backup for a lot of the season. 

If Mattison is retained and it may be possible to avoid significant changes in terminology. The defense will be new but if the players don't have to climb a communication learning curve they should be able to get up to playing speed more quickly than if everything is brand new. 

There is plenty of talent on this team. If the oline can continue to progress from their performance at the end of last season there will be hole to run through and time to pass. unfortunately, given a new offense, they are unlikely to be up to playing speed at the beginning of the season and the first couple of games lack cup cakes for opponents. 

Expecting 10+ wins means that the team climbs the learning curve very very quickly, or you expect to run the table in conference play. Realistically that probably requires a pretty good dose of luck, both in terms of the roll of the ball and staying injury free. 

Eight regular wins with an improving team whose play, intensity, and cohesion improves through the season would be a very good start and a reasonable expectation. Bad luck with injuries, calls, and the roll of the ball could easily knock that down to six. If the team gels early and has some good luck 10+ is certainly possible, but expecting that is asking for disappointment. 

Then there is the Harbaugh "factor". In a very real way the guy is already a legend. In a very real way he embodies the culture of winning that Michigan enjoyed for most of its history. The perception is that the job of head coach at MIchigan is made for Jim Harbaugh. That he is fulfilling his legacy. You take a bunch of talented athletes who desperately want to win and an immensely talented coaching legend who can and will make them believe that together anything is possible, and anything becomes possible. Great coaches create teams that find ways to win games they aren't "supposed" to win. That's pretty much who Harbaugh is. 

It is unreasonable to "expect" a Big Ten championship or a shot at the playoffs in 2015, but under the circumstances it's not impossible. 

So I'll take eight wins with solid progress to set things up for 2016, hope for 10+, and believe like all the rest of us that we have a shot at it all.