We have enough talent to win now
So thorough was the coaching incompetence at Michigan the past two seasons that many among us have genuinely become convinced that we don't have good players on our team. On-field ineptitude chipped away at our psychology, making us feel that all things Michigan football were inept. Even in the past glorious days, there are Michigan fans claiming that we don't have good players and that we should temper our expectations for Harbaugh's first years. Maybe by 2017 we will have a competitive team.
No.
We have extremely talented players and can be competitive this next season. The table below shows the total points from the 247 Composite Team Rankings for the 2014, 2013, and 2012 recruiting classes. Players from these classes will be teams' primary contributors during the 2015 season. Total points take into consideration both quality and number of recruits in a class. The "Total" column in the table simply sums the total points from the 2014, 2013, and 2012 classes, resulting in total points over the three-year period. Further, since older players typically contribute more, another column, "Weighted total," gives more weight to 2012 (x2) and 2013 (x1.5) points to privilege talent more likely to contribute next year. Note that the top 50 teams in terms of three-year total points, plus Big Ten and future opponents are included in the table.
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Based on recruiting rankings, Michigan has the seventh most talented roster in the nation, ahead of every Big Ten team and every 2015 opponent outside of Ohio State. Using the weighted total, Michigan has the fifth most talented roster in the nation, with a preponderance of talent in the upper classes.
Clearly, recruiting rankings aren't completely accurate predictors of college performance, but Michigan's superiority based on this metric is so vastly beyond every non-Ohio State opponent (Nebraska is next at 27th), that even if there is a margin for error, we should still rest assured that our players have the talent to compete in every game next year.
Now that we have a proven winner, leader, and developer-of-talent at the helm, we can feel good about our odds this next season. The talent is there. These kids came to Michigan with the expectation of being developed, being put in position to succeed, and being great. Get after it, Jim.
January 1st, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Just checking Michigan rankings by year
Year (commits) - Ranking from ESPN - Rivals - 247 (Average Ranking via 247) / (W-L)
Brady Hoke
2014 (16): 18 - 31 - 20 (.8990) *smaller class* / W5- L7
2013 (27): 6 - 5 - 4 (.9103) / 7-6
2012 (25): 7 - 7 - 6 (.9063) / 8-5
2011 (20): Not Top 25 - 21 - 26 (.8626) *expected with change over with HC* / 11-2
RR
2010 (28): 14 - 20 - 18 (.8687) / 7-6
2009 (22): 10 - 8 - 12 (.8914) / 5-7
2008 (22): 13 - 10 - 11 (.8930) / 3-9
Lloyd Carr
2007 (20): 10 - 12 - 8 (.8871) / 9-4
If you look at RR tenure, the class ranking was at the cusp of top 10 and usually in the mid range... In comparison, Hoke has recruited top 10 classes at least 2 of the year.. When comparing, Hoke seem to have better record than RR by far... Some could argue that RR's players did better as they progressed during Hoke tenure but we can't say that necessarily because the defense performance did change with Mattison on board (so we can't definitely use that argument that Hoke use developed players from RR in all situation)...
In all, recruiting does matters.. We all agree.. But RR and his development of his players did not equate better record than Hoke.. Hoke started with good talent and regressed because he had no development.. The argument here is RR's development over poorer recruiting class prove that recruting ranks do not matter? I don't agree.. There are exceptions like JH (at Stanford) and Dantonio at MSU... But even when JH won it big at Stanford was because he got better recruiting class and the records reflect that... To me, it is Hoke and his staff on development on key position players (OL, QB, at times DL and DB) that was their downfall... I believe the original makes a point that I would agree with BUT even more does it hinges on the development of key positional players... I believe JH will get that overcome and they have a legitimate chance to be very dominant this year.. It is all a mindset and psychology for these players to believe in themselves that they will execute... I think that is the one word that seem to fall short at Hoke's tenure.. Execution
January 1st, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^
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