Dare I ponder the impossible...winning out?

I think it would at least open the door to consider it, but still Hoke would probably be fired.

To take the hypoethitcal one step further, if Hoke finishes 8-5, and the new AD talks to Harbuagh, or Miles, or Mullen and can get one of them, who do you think he goes with?

Hoke still needs to go.  The reason is the only way that we win out is dumb luck.  With a sample space of 4 games(bowl) then some strange things can happen.  The one exception is if Michigan wins out against teams playing their A game.  If we soundly beat NW and Maryland despite them being on top of their game, beat OSU playing their best ball, and beat a motivated team in the bowl game, then I would give Hoke a 5th year. 

Otherwise he has to go.  The reason  we are 4-5 is because of Hoke's well documented coaching failures.  If Hoke gets incredibly lucky by the ball bouncing the right way, other teams getting gutted by injury or lack of motivation, the same problems that afflicted us this year will remain next year.   Luck evens out.  Next year we will not be so lucky and have yet another struggling year.

The reality of us winning out without other team's help is about zero.  As pointed out by others we beat arguably the worse team in the Big10 that had a QB incapable of throwing the ball down the field. The roster is littered with 5 and high 4 star recruits who are under performing or not even able to get playing time.  For those who have not been paying attention the good teams in the conference have been winning like 60 to 0 against the doormats.

At Michigan you should show you can win consistently. Not in fits and starts, but consistently, given there will be some losses here and there. I think if Hoke wins out it will be a further indictment of his coaching.

Plus, there is a huge confounding variable you are ignoring if the team wins out - how can anyone know how much impact the notion of playing their last games for Hoke had on the team's ability to win?

So far this season after every glimmer of hope (App. St., Penn. St., Indiana) where the team actually looks somewhat competent, we are quickly brought back down to earth the next game. They did what they should have done against Indiana, but it's Indiana. NW and Maryland are both capable of beating this team.

Fire him on the Monday of OSU week.

You dare not.

It is possible. One of the things I've learned about college students is they rely on their instincts and talent rather than conscious application of skill.  So given the right spark of motivation, they can transcend their normal ability level (which is low compared to professionals).  

Even though we got a worse coach in 2011, the team played *better* since they were finally free of all the distractions.  Even though we were a far worse team in 2013, they almost beat Ohio State because they apparently really, really wanted it.    So I can see us winning out. 

Inspiring college students to achieve is not an easy task.  I think Hoke's overall record shows that he is not elite at that task.

We're not going to win out.  OSU is giving us an ass stomping at a minimum.  Even if we somehow beat NU and Maryland and get to a shitty bowl, and win (not likely), 7-6 is not enough for him to keep his job.

But, I'll play along for a second with the OP question.  I'd say there would be a 60 to 70% chance Hoke stays in that preposterous scenario. 

Not gonna happen. This team is terrible

Another AD is not going to hitch his wagon to the slow, pondering, confused, hapless mule that is Hoke. 

and certainly will resign after another two losses. 

If we win out, which is possible with a lot of luck. Hoke should stay and things probably will turn better. 

The job of new AD is to secure a secretive agreement with one of two Harbough brothers so that the new coach will be announced soon after Hoke's resignation. 

if we convincingly beat NU, Marylan, win at OSU, and win our bowl game I'd consider bringing Hoke back unless a slam dunk is available (Harbaughs, Mississippi St coach). 

We'd have to do more than win, we need to look like a good football team. But at this point, if Harbaugh wants the job, he should get it no matter what.

Hokes "Total Body of Work" prevents him any further claim of HC. An impossible fluke streak won't happen because his record speaks for itself as well, and if someone is carried away with a victory over the Hoosiers...well, more power to you. I'd like to feel that good about this team again  sometime soon.

Hoke will and should keep his job for the 2015 season.

1: The extention argument is a strawman. Hoke's contract runs to the end of the 2016 season, he is not a lame duck next year. 

2: Folks forget how good it feels to beat OSU. If Hoke runs the table the rest of the regular season and wins whatever bowl game results, he and Nussmeier will have provided enough of an offensive improvement to make another major program churn more risky than giving him his fifth year. The euphoria from winning 5 straight and beating OSU after a tough season will quell all but the most negative part of the fan base. 

3: Recruiting will be fine if Hoke wins in 2015. Period. The guy recruits at a high level when he's struggling. If he's winning he'll have no trouble recruiting next season. Finishing with five wins this season and a positive shift in the fan base will help to hold Hoke's remaining recruits and provide an atmosphere in which he'll be able to pick up solid guys to fill any hole opened by decommits. 

4:While the narrative here about Hoke's bumbling incompetence is pervasive, winning out largely mutes this meme. WInning out supports the argument that Nussmeier needed time to show a turn around and the staff should get another season to continue that trend.

Hoke is an incredibly likable man. While that should have no impact on perceptions of his skills as a head coach, it will have a impact on the willingness of a new AD to fire him if the end of this season shows promise. Hoke has earned a great deal of credit with the administration with his senior graduation rate and his focus on maintaining academic standards for his players. While that has little to do with the need to win games, it provides motivation to give him another season to  complete turning the program around. He needs to show promise in that area and winning out does exactly that. 

Of course he has to win. 

Well, interim AD Hackett should take the what if off the table and let Hoke know that he's making a change at the end of the season.   Do this on Monday before the Ohio State game at the latest.  Hoke and his staff have proven all they need to already.  The quality of football reflects the quality of the coaching and it's been poor.

Go Blue!

and I think Hoke stays, unless Michigan can land an A+/ A candidate (e.g. Harbaugh calliber guy).

I don't see the purpose of taking a guy that cold easilt become Hoke 2.0, because the assistants will likely be worse and it's not worth the gamble.

It will by definition mean the ship has been righted, that players are developing, that Hoke never lost the confidence of his players, that Michigan can win on the road, and that Michigan has demonstrably improved from last year.  I don't see it happening, but if it should, I don't see how Hoke cannot only survive the hotseat, but also earn an extension.  

That's why they play the games, right?

While beating Ohio State would be awesome.  The thought of this staff coming back next year makes me physically ill.  IMO, Hoke & Co. will NEVER come close to getting in the National Championship picture.  We need a fresh start with a coach who is fully aware and has a chip on his shoulder and he's not it

Wow...Michigan beats a downright shitty Indiana team and people start talking extension for Hoke.  How low we have sunk.