Asking for thoughts on Texas @ Michigan ? Payback or dread?
UM and UT face off September 7, 2024.
Interestingly, Michigan and Texas initially agreed to play each other 2024 and 2027 in Austin then A2. But the locations were swapped recently as part of the drama of Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big12 and joining SEC (see https://www.si.com/college/texas/football/texas-longhorns-big-12-sec-michigan-wolverines-series-2024 ) to secure Fox's necessary blessing for the realignment.
Yes, that's how big this was projected to be.
And that was BEFORE Sarkisian demonstrably reenergized the long-moribund Texas program.
My family is Maize and Blue forever, both school and team.
But my EXTENDED family hard core Texas Longhorn orange. And they outnumber us to boot. Constantly harping on about Vince Young and UMs loss in our only meeting: 2005 BCS Rose Bowl (see https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap/_/gameId/250010130 ...sorry about cut&paste as only one hypertext link allowed per post). Every holiday. Every football weekend.
This despite the tale-of-the-tape of our two programs favoring the good guys. (See https://www.winsipedia.com/texas/vs/michigan ). But they have the ONLY match-up victory. In an infuriating game that we should have won looking at every statistic except the gd score, with Texas getting yards out of a parade of broken plays.
But I digress.
So given how expensive tickets are going to be, I want to make the effort of the families going only if it's going to be competitive. And I REALLY want to go if I think we get to return the favor of 2005. Hence this post to field way-too-early predictions.
On the one hand, Sarkisian's history as coach to date hasn't lived up to his pedigree and seems pretty mediocre.
On the other hand, Texas seems to be turned around quick.
Add to it NIL recruiting advantages from one of the few schools that have a money cannon bigger than ours (see https://247sports.com/longformarticle/college-sports-top-donors-ranking-the-most-generous-athletics-boosters-214986422/ ), at a time when money cannons win the day. Maybe even ESPECIALLY in Texas wherein the state legislators pass law 6/2023 to make it easier to skirt NCAA enforcement for essentially selling tickets to directly acquire NIL money, while Michigan has cheeseburger handcuffs (see https://www.on3.com/teams/texas-longhorns/news/texas-state-law-regarding-nil-finds-itself-in-the-ncaas-crosshairs-likely-setting-up-a-legal-battle/ ).
Texas' unique and potent NIL money train (see https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2022/05/05/texas-running-back-bijan-robinson-nil-deal-lamborghini-austin for an example) coincides with big recruiting successes, like getting Ewers from Ohio, or hyped QB prospect Arch Manning (see https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/34603436/texas-ran-280000-tab-recruiting-visit-arch-manning-8-others ).
Just last week, Texas lured over former Ohio commit 5star OT Baker (see https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/recruiting/five-star-ohio-state-buckeyes-offensive-tackle-brandon-baker-commits-texas-longhorns#:~:text=September%2024,over%20Ohio%20State%20and%20Nebraska. ).
Meanwhile, Michigan will be one year out from whatever this season holds. Given the senior heavy talent, win-or-lose, next season am I right in expecting moreheavy than usual turnover in starters and that we'll be a young team? Just as the Texas sleeping giant is awakening?
Or are we enough a "reload talent" recruiting level program that that doesn't really matter? That next year we should be fully able to handle Texas? And what of the NIL advantages Texas has (money plus favorable state legislation) giving them a juggernaut by the time we meet in 2017?
I'm a natural pessimist so want to see if smarter fans than i can point out why I'm misreading the tea leaves as i decide whether to sell the car to make the 2024 game.
Regardless, Go Blue Forever!
September 27th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^
Dread is not being fully awake and trying to figure what I am reading.
September 27th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
Dear Lord...get to the point. What's the point of all this is you're just going to ask...Should I go?
September 27th, 2023 at 8:37 AM ^
I don't know that I got through that, but I'll say this... Texas next year looks to be loaded, and we, given recent recruiting cycles, appear to be likely to take a step back. We lose a lot of talent and I don't think the pieces are there to maintain the level we've grown accustomed to the past 2 years.
I don't know that Sark is a great coach but he's basically tapping into the potential that has existed at Texas since the dawn of football time
September 27th, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
September 27th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
Right. I don't disagree. I trust that our coaches really do develop the talent we have. But if we're breaking in a new QB, possibly a transfer, and a ton of new talent on the OL, DL, Secondary etc.. WR... playing game 2 against a Texas team likely under year 3 with Ewers (unless manning passes him).. not an easy task. Kinda wish next year was away, so we'd be loaded up for a W when they came to us.
But its a marquee matchup. Win it all this year, and I don't care. We can play them 11 times in Siberia.
September 27th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
September 27th, 2023 at 8:38 AM ^
All of this indiscriminate information and your question is essentially should I go to the game and do you think it will be competitive enough to warrant spending $ for said game?
Based on your logic, I would suggest never eating at new restaurants, traveling to new places, or playing fantasy football because you just don't know what's going to happen. I would talk it out with some friends, family members, or possibly even a therapist first to help with your decision. They all know you better than we do.
Best of luck!
September 27th, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
This was very difficult to read so I took the painful step of skimming through it for all of you.
Cliff Notes:
His extended family are hardcore Texas fans.
UM will lose a lot of players next year. Will they reload or rebuild?
With a young team will they have a shot in this game?
OP does not want to be the heap of ridicule at said game if they have no chance.
Should he just jump bandwagons and get with them thar' Horns to save himself the ridicule if UM happens to lose the 2024 game and 2027 because all he sees is steamrolling Bama level Longhorness in the future of CFB.
September 27th, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
Tomorrow is not promised. You may never again have the opportunity to do something like this with your family. The real regrets I have in life are decisions to forego once-in-a-lifetime experiences for very flawed reasons.
Quit overthinking and start doing.
September 27th, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
it's hilarious that people who probably spend many hours a day checking mgoblog, reading thousands of short comments about whatever, will take the time to write about how they won't read something that has like five hundred words in it.
September 27th, 2023 at 8:44 AM ^
Can’t we focus on this year and deal with next year when this season is over?
September 27th, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
Dunno, not considering anything Texas-related until the offseason.
BEAT CORN.
September 27th, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
Texas probably will be favored but that’s no reason not to go. And, no matter the outcome, part of the family will be happy.
I bought tickets for me, my Sparty daughter and her husband, and another daughter to the MSU Alabama game. My Sparty daughter was miserable, but I thoroughly enjoyed the game (but in deference to my daughter's feelings, I kept my outward expressions of joy in check). Being afraid Michigan might lose is no reason not to go.
September 27th, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
Agreed.
Not contingent on a Michigan win: just a competitive game that will be fun for all, not a steamroller (though i could live with a Michigan blowout of texas ;) ).
Even if one can afford the tickets, hotel, restaurants, transportation, etc., saying yes to one set of experiences means saying no to potentially others of course.
Glad you had a good time at msu bama, and I'm sure despite your daughter's "misery" she appreciated and treasures hanging out with dad at a big football game no matter what. Good job!
September 27th, 2023 at 8:53 AM ^
It's a great matchup. I don't follow Texas football, but I expect Michigan will take a significant step back next year. We'll be potentially losing our quarterback (without a clear next-up), most of our starting O-line, receivers and running backs. We may have significant coaching turnover as well. Especially early in the season with a young Michigan team composed from a couple lower recruiting classes, it's hard not to think Texas will hold the edge.
September 27th, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^
We should only play teams from the south if they're willing to come up here in November. I don't know how people live down there, it's so fucking hot all the time.
September 27th, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
Go to the game. It's so rare for top-tier programs to play non-conference home and homes against each other these days that you can't miss an opportunity like this if experiencing another stadium / campus is something you want to do.
September 27th, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
You need a new hobby.
September 27th, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^
This is a bad post and Blowgoo should feel bad
September 27th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
Short answer is, yes Michigan certainly will lose some great players but will return a great core of players, especially on defense. Texas may be good this year but they are more than likely to see their offense take a major step back losing Ewers and worthy and their TE. All of which should make for a fairly even matchup of pretty good but not great teams next year. 🤷♂️
September 27th, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
My thoughts are the B1G should play a 10-game conference schedule and put together a competitive non-conference schedule. Goal should be to play good teams and win the B1G. I don't care about a national championship. Would love to participate but rather see 12 competitive games than 3 crappy non-conference games.
September 27th, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
Why are we talking about 2024 in the middle of the 2023 season?
September 27th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Brandon Baker was never committed to OSU.
September 27th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
Sorry y’all, as a Texas grad, this will be one of the games I’ll be rooting against Michigan.
We promise we will call the dogs off in the 4th quarter ;)
September 27th, 2023 at 1:19 PM ^
I was just in Austin, and the UT fans are a bewildering combination of fanatacism and old school, genteel, politeness and generosity. Hard not to like them.
And the eating in Austin is just fantastic.
Had Asian fusion and Franklin Barbecue Brisket at Loro. Amazing.
Then pacific oysters and snapper on the half shell at Clark's Oyster bar that were unbelievable.
All as guests of my UT hosts, but jawing football the entire time.
September 27th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
September 27th, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
Okay, I'll bite. Out here in LA, the only friends I have that share my disease with college football are Longhorns, so I get a close look at their team.
We potentially lose a lot after this year, but so does Texas. In terms of offense, Ewers, Worthy and Mitchell are juniors; their tight end #0 (Sanders) and WR Whittington are Seniors. That's their QB and top 5 receiving production so far this year. On defense, I've been impressed with their DL. The top producer (Sweat) is gone after this year and there are several other decisions that could seriously hamper that unit.
Previewing this matchup right now is pretty impossible because there are about ~30 decisions that could swing it either way between Juniors and coaches on either side.
What I will say about watching Texas is that they have more explosive talent than us but don't seem to be as well coached. This feels like a game that if the talent isn't completely imbalanced (and we're not breaking in a freshman QB), Michigan can win. If JJ comes back, I'd favor us, since our D seems like it'll be strong again next year.
Said group and I are planning to be there next year.
September 27th, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
Yes, you go. It'll be a marquee match up regardless of what Michigan looks like roster-wise next year. We will likely lose a lot of starters on both sides of the ball.
The staff has shown the ability to find diamonds in the rough and develop them but I'd say the roster is probably gonna be in between reload and rebuild. Unless they can find a Sam Hartman in the portal QB is probably gonna be rough and who knows what the RB/WR room is gonna look like. I don't think the '24 team is gonna be playoff caliber, but it should still be pretty good (9-3 / 10-2 I'd guess given their schedule).
Either way, it's a chance to see Texas vs. Michigan in a regular season match up, you go.
September 27th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
September 27th, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
Yes, there's more room for error but considering the following games: @Texas, @USC, UCLA, plus we still have PSU and @OSU, it doesn't exactly scream just one loss to me.
Unless, as I mentioned above, get a Sam Hartman out of the portal I just don't see how it isn't a 2-3 loss season next year.
I have faith in this staff but there will be a lot of key starters to replace; QB, top two RB's, top two WR's, 3-4 starting OL then you add in Jenkins, Colson and Moore on defense and it just feels like a lot to overcome to be a one-loss playoff team. Three tough road games, PSU will be in year 2 of Allar (Frames issues aside).
Not saying it'll be a bad team, but I don't see the 2024 team being a playoff contender given all they'll need to replace. Just won't be what we've come to 'expect' given the last 2 1/3 seasons.
September 27th, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
They don't play PSU next year, so it's USC, Texas, UCLA, and OSU... The 12th team in the final CPF standings has had three losses 5 times, the last two seasons has had 2 losses, 2017 was wonky because of UCF being 12-0, and another year was 2020 where all kinds of madness occurred.
Though there's many unknowns, I have to still like Michigan's chances against UCLA... And think USC could be a toss up since they don't seem to be interested in defense, Texas is losing a fair bit too, OSU probably going to be tough with it being at the shoe and the talent they have every year. It's not hard to imagine a 10-2 season, or even a 9-3 and being right on the cut line.
September 27th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
we don't rebuild... we reload...
There will be two more Edge Rushes that are top 10 NFL prospects
The Oline will be considered a favorite for the 4th straight Joe Moore award
Sherone Moore will be in his first season as Ira and Nicki Harris Family Head Coach
Jordan Marshall and Cade Cabana will be the new thunder and lightening
Jayden Davis will be a Heisman candidate
The longhorns should be terrified.
September 27th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
I don't look on next year's game either as dread or payback. It will have been 20 seasons since we lost on a tipped last second FG that barely made the crossbar. I chalked up that loss to:
(1) VY was a beast and got even better for 2005
(2) Lloyd seemed to play for FGs at times when this was a shootout from the get go (Lloyd's coaching seemed similar to Day's last year on 4th and short situations)
(3) This game proved that Jim Herrmann needed to go. He lucked into 1997 with a great D and Woodson. But we had years where teams just lit us up - Syracuse + Ohio '98, Illinois and MSU '99, etc. End of 2004 Ohio and Troy Smith smoked us.
I remember Lloyd taking a shot at his DC - something along the line "37 points should win you a football game" (we lost 37-38).
Herrmann is now a DC for an XFL team!
September 27th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
As for next year, I'm not at all convinced JJ will head to the NFL for 2024. Mock drafts have WIlliams, Maye, Ewers, and Penix in 1st round. Some mocks have Nix or Sanders too. Last projection I saw for him was late 2nd round.
Edwards going pro? He's certainly got the talent but maybe helps his draft stock a lot more if he is the feature back and has a 2022 Corum season (minus the late injury).
Jadyn Davis will be a good one someday, but seeing what happened at Utah to Dante Moore shows the struggles he could have in Year 1 as a True FR. Still happy we have him but would love a proven starter in Year 1.
September 27th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Go outside and take a walk. Look at the changing colors of the leaves
September 27th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
I’m not sure how a game 11 months from now will go.
I am sure that I would not spend thousands of dollars on bringing a big group to AA for the game.
September 27th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Your username is a troll attempt from simple minded rival fans. Are you really a Michigan fan?
September 27th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
I didn't even read the post TBH.
Dread?
Michigan is at a level where we shouldn't dread any opponent.
Bring 'em on.