Stew Mandel's B1G Picks
Over on The Athletic, Stew Mandel has made some predictions. Nice little read. Here are some highlights (plenty more beyond this if you have a sub and care to read).
The Buckeyes remain the league’s most talented team, led by Heisman finalist quarterback CJ Stroud, though admittedly its offensive line and defensive front seven need to perform at a higher level.
In the East, I’m interested to see whether the Wolverines remain ahead of upstart rival Michigan State, whether Penn State can rebound after two mediocre seasons and whether Maryland and/or Rutgers can pull some surprises. (Poor Indiana sank to rock bottom in rapid fashion.)
In the West, I can see any of four teams — Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue or Wisconsin — getting to Indianapolis, though you’ll see below I’m predicting the Badgers to take a mini-slide. As for Nebraska … not seeing it.
Other highlights:
Player of the Year
Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Impact Transfer
Michigan State running backs Jarek Broussard and Jalen Berger
Impact Freshman
Penn State RB Nick Singleton
Coach most likely to get fired
Nebraska’s Scott Frost
Impact Assistant
Minnesota OC Kirk Ciarrocca
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
I agree --- predicting three teams at 6-3 really is a cop-out. Somebody among MSU, PSU and U-M is going to be the best team out of the 3.
In any conference, there's generally some degree of separation at the top. "Muddling" is a feature of the middle- and lower-tier of a conference, not often a feature of the top-tier of a conference.
Another thing: Mandel's predictions essentially imply the B1G East is decided before Halloween! OSU would be entering the U-M game with a 2-game edge over everyone! It's pretty rare that the division is decided that early.
August 23rd, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^
Agreed. Mandel seems to forget that Harbaugh has brought several teams to the M/OSU game to decide the eastern division winner. MSU and PSU have challenged in recent memory as well. And lest it be forgotten, OSU does occasionally drop a game here and there unexpectedly to keep things interesting.
It just seems like lazy prognostication. He's not willing to take the time to figure out which of the 3 teams will challenge OSU, so he assigns them the same record with the assumption none of them will. One of them will challenge OSU. Even though OSU has come out on top most years, one of these 3 teams will challenge them in November to win the division. That just seems so sloppy on Mandel's part.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:47 PM ^
And no bowl game in the south vs an SEC team for the first time in 47 years.
Please lord.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
Recently decided to not renew subscription at The Athletic. A few of the national writers are every bit as bad as the ones you can find for free, and while NB's film study is occasionally very good, it's discount Neck Sharpies/Space Coyote twitter. Mandel was terribly off with several B10 teams last year, here's hoping to another.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
This screams 'i did no research and just put out a narrative thats true almost every year.' Especially the Nebraska part. They shoulda had a much better record last year and should be better this year than last.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
My prediction...Stewie is flat out lazy with his predictions.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^
3 losses? Well, they won’t be to Iowa or Sparty.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:22 PM ^
Fake news
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:24 PM ^
Stew Mandel is a dummy.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:24 PM ^
I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by how good UM looks this year and how mediocre MSU looks.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Every time I look at MSU's schedule, I see 2-6 or 3-5 heading into November and it doesn't seem like a stretch. I don't think anyone would be surprised if they lose at Washington. Their first five B1G opponents are no joke either (MN, @MD, OSU, WI, @UM). Their schedule is front loaded this year (no Nebraska, NW or Indiana), and we get them at the end of a brutal stretch.
I still think we head into Columbus with a shot at Indy, so I don't know what Mandel is smoking.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:54 PM ^
I agree UM should have a shot at Indy when they head to Columbus, even with a loss along the way.
The thing with MSU is I think they'll be fine; 7-5/8-4 wouldn't be some huge shock if things broke right for them again. But they went 4-0 in 1 score games and it would have been 5-0 had they not gotten a pick-6 with under 30 seconds against Pitt. So yeah, a game or two the other direction in a tough stretch and all of a sudden they're scuttling a bit during the teeth of that schedule.
August 24th, 2022 at 6:39 PM ^
Im not sure why Michigan fans do this to themselves every year. MSU is all about that backfield and it will be solid this year. If they were in a passing league they would be effed but they can muck it up with the Wisconsins Iowas and PSus of the world. They are good in exactly the right spots in the big ten. Strong D line and another year where youll be pissed they are running the ball so well.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:29 PM ^
The Njigba pick is interesting. I know everyone is predicting OSU to put up video game numbers, but if they haven't fixed their DL issues, UM, MSU and PSU are going to pound the ball and shorten the number of possessions in the game. Our OL may be the only one that can do it consistently, but MSU and PSU should be able to control some clock.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:43 PM ^
The Smith-Njigba pick makes perfect sense to me, and the only reason it raises an eyebrow at all is that people tend to focus on the QB position for awards. But OSU basically gets, in JSN, a guy that would play 1000 snaps in the NFL this season if he were eligible for the league, and with the growing focus on the receiver position this season, he's a good bet to bring in POY awards. Especially since OSU has less of a "full stable" at receiver than they did last season.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him at the Heisman ceremony; he might win it. Remember, even in a game where Michigan did almost everything right against OSU last year, brilliant receiver play was basically unbeatable, and JSN was as big a problem as any.
August 23rd, 2022 at 11:06 PM ^
JSN was the best receiver on a team that just had two NFL 1st round WRs picked. He is a rare talent.
Honestly I’m not sure how many MSU players would start ahead of their UofM counterpart, including special teams.
Slade. Reed would have to work for it with our roster. Haladay maybe.That’s not to say they are far off the pace and solid team at most positions. They are still a dangerous team but could easily be 3-5 loss team
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^
I bet Michigan over 9.5 wins. I think it’s pretty safe bet.
August 23rd, 2022 at 5:54 PM ^
Look, I know why OSU is the favorite, and that 12-0 is a very realistic possibility. But OSU's schedule is significantly harder than any I can remember in recent memory. Half of their games feature opponents that have more than a puncher's chance of beating them - ND, Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, Iowa, UM. While I think it's possible they make it through all those undefeated, I would think the most likely scenario is 5-1, with a slightly higher possibility towards 4-2 than 6-0. Even if you give them a 90% chance of winning each of those games, it's about a 50/50 shot that they win all of them.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:00 PM ^
Feels like this team has the talent needed to reload and go 11-1 again. But if the defense disappoints then 9-3, or even 8-4 are possible. I don't think that's going to be the case.
August 23rd, 2022 at 7:39 PM ^
I want to believe Jesse Minter will be an able replacement. I also want to believe Mike Elston is an upgrade for the interior D Line.
August 23rd, 2022 at 6:53 PM ^
I'll take the OVER on 6-3 all day!
August 23rd, 2022 at 7:21 PM ^
O JA BO
August 23rd, 2022 at 7:21 PM ^
Wait, he's saying Michigan is going to be 9-3? Shut up.
August 23rd, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
I think he got it wrong.
August 23rd, 2022 at 8:04 PM ^
That was easily the worst written Big Ten preview I have read or viewed anywhere. Next to zero analysis and depth.
August 23rd, 2022 at 8:36 PM ^
If I recall, Stew also said that Rich Rod was an awesome coach and that we were headed to a natty with him.
August 23rd, 2022 at 8:52 PM ^
I'm going to be the outlier in this thread: I'm a fan of Stewart Mandel's. I think he's astute when it comes to trends that tend to make college football teams successful and while he's not a tape review/X's and O's guy per se he knows what he's writing about. That having been said, predictions are predictions and I personally can't imagine us losing 3 B10 games.
Moreover I think OSU's schedule, as someone above wrote, is tricky enough that they will lose one game before we play them. In contrast Michigan has quite a favorable schedule. I don't think we'll lose here at Iowa, mostly because Iowa's offense (particularly QB play) stinks, and we have too much talent and experience on offense for their defense to shut us down.
So I think both OSU and Michigan will have one loss when we meet them in C-bus in November, winner take all.
August 23rd, 2022 at 9:17 PM ^
So I don’t get it, he’s predicting Wisconsin in the west but puts them at 4th?
August 23rd, 2022 at 9:25 PM ^
I actually like the fact that most "experts" are not even giving Michigan any chance this year. Most already have OSU engraved on the BIG TEN trophy...
Can't rest on any past glory if no one is giving you a chance.....
I love being the underdog....
August 24th, 2022 at 4:49 AM ^
Michigan had that "2% chance" last year.
August 23rd, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^
Mandel and Staples have been idiots for years. Ignore them. If you think about what they write, you’re wasting your time.
August 23rd, 2022 at 11:45 PM ^
With our schedule, JOK could return and lead this team to a 9-3 record. With our QB’s 9-3 is the floor. 11-1…hopefully 12-0.
August 23rd, 2022 at 11:53 PM ^
Mandel is a notorious Harbaugh and Michigan hater - he has been for years. I take everything he says about UM with a huge grain of salt and while keeping that in mind (doesn't make it any less annoying). Case in point with Mandel, and many other national CFB writers: they tend to significantly overlook and glide past PSU's struggles in 2020, while hammering Michigan's struggles in the Covid year in order to paint that into their narrative that Franklin is some Coaching Jesus that has PSU on the doorstep of something else and Harbaugh is just some whack.
Two other things I'll point out:
- Maybe this is just me and maize colored glasses, etc., but I do think last year's team and staff turned around the culture of the program. It was getting stale and I could see it from my couch. We all saw the change the minute that "Jump Around" came on the stadium speakers at Camp Randall. Jettisoning Don Brown and Warriner and bringing in new, younger and fresh faces paid off bigtime. I don't think that is reverting.
- yes OSU has a relatively difficult B1G conference schedule this year, but somehow they get both the Badgers and the Hawkeyes in Columbus (they travel to NW in their other cross-over game).
August 24th, 2022 at 1:44 AM ^
He should start with what he predicted last year and how he ended the year. Spewing some crap prediction is easy. No way there are three 3 teams with ,6-3 in east.
August 24th, 2022 at 9:31 AM ^
Don't see a 2-7 Nebraska. Maybe .500
August 24th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
Every year feels like a big year to fans but this feels like an important point in the program. After a great year and winning 12 games can you keep that going...or fall back to the mean? Who knows if they will repeat...going to be tough...but this team needs to roll into osu at 10-1 at worst, and hopefully 11-0.
Just feels like a year to firmly plant UM at the top next to osu and make this a two team conference...which I'm just fine with as long as one of those two teams is Michigan.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
Michigan with 3 losses in the league? Flat wrong.
August 24th, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
Mandel is getting lazy. Copy and paste predictions every year with little to no thought or analysis.
August 24th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
Suddenly pretty excited to see the 4-8 cornhuskers play the 4-8 wildcats in Dublin Saturday night 🤣