Brick City, USA
3/28/2019 – Purdue 99, Tennessee 94 (OT) –
what
i mean did you see that game
look at this dude pointing at it
[Campredon]
it was really fun!
oh fine
3/28/2019 – Michigan 44, Texas Tech 63 – 30-7, 15-5 Big Ten, season over
I'm torn. On the one hand, walk-on CJ Baird crotching in a three in the desultory final moments of a 20-point game was somehow fitting. On the other, they showed a stat that it had been 261 games since Michigan had managed to go 40 minutes of basketball without hitting a single three, and that 0-fer in the box score would have been an even more powerful indicator of what happened than 1/19.
A collective mania set in as this was happening as the horrible results overwhelmed anyone's ability to process what happened before them. Four different threes rimmed out in the first half. A fifth was Michigan's first attempt, which was a blindingly wide open shot from Brazdeikis that barely grazed the front of the rim. Brazdeikis entered the game a 41% shooter from three, and did that with an uncontested catch and shoot look.
collective fanbase response to aforementioned shot
Michigan is a limited offensive team full of guys with major holes in their toolsets. Simpson can't shoot. Iggy can't pass. Poole can't stop oscillating wildly. Teske can't create his own shots. Matthews has some variety of all these issues. All these guys have assets that they managed to cobble together a top-25 offense out of, but there was a hard stop. So when they run up against a defense just as good as theirs they have a limited set of responses. When they run up against a team that's comfortable switching everything those responses narrow further.
When you are in this situation and literally do not hit a shot outside of the paint in the first 30 minutes you get run out of the building.
Last year's title game was against a very different team but was the same story. Michigan's offense did reasonably well inside the line, given the context (66% against Villanova, 50% against Texas Tech) and then had horrific, historically bad shooting from three (3/23 and 1/19) on looks that were more or less what you'd expect the opponent to give up. Tech did contest threes well; there were a couple of ugly stepbacks mixed in. But when Isaiah Livers rises up for a barely contested look in the corner where he's ~50% from and it rattles out to continue your 0-fer streak deep into the second half, there's nothing to say except "shit."
In a world where basketball consists of a million copies of every shot and you're awarded the average of your million trials, Texas Tech probably still wins this game. But, hell, hand Michigan 5 of their 18 pre-Baird attempts (28%, worse than Tech's season average allowed) and delete the banked-in prayer from Mooney and Baird isn't on the floor because it's a four-point game. The difference between a hard-fought game against an elite foe that aw-shucks you lost and last night's debacle is just shots going down or not.
Is there a reason that Michigan's last two seasons have ended in a flurry of bricks? To some extent, sure. I would kill and skin an entire herd of caribou for a shooter like Ryan Cline or Davide Moretti. The composition of this team leaves them vulnerable to nights where they can't hit anything. Versions of this column have popped up from time to time through the season. Michigan got in a 2 point game with Minnesota after going 3/22; there was nearly mass seppuku after a 3/19 night against Holy Cross.
nope [Campredon]
But also not really. Maybe there are reasons you go 25% from three. There are no reasons when you go 13% and 0%. Just frustration, and an offseason a little more sudden than hoped for. Michigan's started about five minutes into the second half. And while that sucks, Michigan basketball has never been in a better place. Don't let some bricks get that clouded.
[After THE JUMP: looking to the future]
BULLETS
Always next year. Charles Matthews exits, degree in hand, to go get paid somewhere. For the people who continually ask whether he's really leaving, yes he's really leaving:
"We're very sad that his college career is ending," John Beilein said, "But he will work his tail off to have a successful career going forward, and he'll have a big imprint on Michigan forever."
At this point it is fair to say that he has left.
Neither Brazdeikis or Poole had much to say on their futures:
"I'm not thinking about that stuff right now," Brazdeikis said.
Poole also said he hadn't given it any thought. "I'm just trying to be supportive for the guys around me right now. Guys like Charles that have dedicated so much time to basketball. (Zavier Simpson) is a leader. The managers, everybody. I'm just trying to stay in the current moment. That's really about it right now."
One or both may go through the pre-draft process like Matthews did a year ago but unless something changes drastically neither seems close to the first round. There have been rumblings over the course of the year that both would like to go as soon as possible. Exactly what the definition of "possible" is remains unknown.
If both guys come back the starting lineup is obvious: Livers slides into the starting lineup, likely bumping Iggy down to the three. Then Michigan will try to find three or four bench guys. Those are likely to be Castleton, some combination of DeJulius and Brooks, and then a wing free-for-all between Johns, Nunez, and whatever freshmen enter.
Michigan still has a couple of recruits on their radar, which implies that they're either bracing for attrition or just keeping their bases covered. There are a couple of obvious candidates for a playing time transfer.
[Campredon]
The Matthews conundrum. Matthews finishes his senior year at Michigan with a 98 ORTG on 24% usage. If we set aside Beilein's first year only one player in this era of Michigan basketball is in that ballpark: the junior version of Zak Irvin had a 98 ORTG on 23% usage, and that was the year senior Caris Levert* went out 14 games in. Prior to that Irvin was at 102 on 19% usage. Not since Beilein walked into Tommy Amaker's leftovers has Michigan been forced to rely so heavily on an offensive player that inefficient.
On the other hand, projected top five pick Jarrett Culver looked like just a guy until Michigan pulled Matthews in a desperate bid for some more offense. Whoever picks up Matthews's minutes—Livers will get about 10 as he goes from 20 to 30, but the other 20 are up for grabs—is going to have to significantly outpace Matthews's offense to make up for the inevitable defensive downgrade.
*[I had forgotten what a monster year he was in the midst of when he was struck down. 26% usage, a 127 ORTG, a 33 assist rate and 12 TO rate, shooting 53/45. Headed for national player of the year contention.]
Offseason projects. #1: Post entries. May have to violate the Beilein principle of Never Post Ever and incorporate a few per game just so they're in the practice in case they get a 1-to-5 switch. With Simpson back next year that's almost certain to be the case.
#2: Assuming Iggy and Poole return, incorporating them into more team-based shot creation instead of just iso stuff.
#3: Left Z hook. It's happening. Probably.
Honestly sort of encouraging bit. Iggy was 7/11 from two against the #2 two point D in the country, and one of his misses was a putback that touched every bit of the rim. He did not commit an offensive foul—Texas Tech in fact took no charges. He also had zero assists, as per usual.
Outside of Simpson, who was 0/5, Michigan actually shot 60% from two. Too many turnovers (14) was a problem, but I mean hit some threes and you're at a PPG. I dunno man.
I feel like there should be more to say but there isn't? The only efficient bits of Texas Tech's offense were Moretti and Culver when checked by Not Matthews; that played out about how you'd expect.
I kept staring in disbelief at the TV as Michigan took good looks that would go half-down and pop out. Meanwhile, Tech is running streetball offense on the other end canning off balance other 2s and turnaround banked-in 3s. Some days, you just get beat. Nothing for this team to hang their heads about. Tough game shooting. Need to hit the gym in the offseason to work on the outside stroke and reload for next year.
When the season started, I had said second weekend of the NCAA tournament is the expectation and after that, anything is gravy. I have nothing to complain about. This is still a 30-win team with double digit victories over multiple teams in the field, including 2 teams still left. The program is in good shape
Seconded. And when that turnaround, shot clock expiring, banked in three pointer from high off the glass went in for them, I thought I was watching an And 1 Mix-tape (on offense) and that bald white guy dropping prayers like he was The Professor. I half expected Escalade to make an appearance at some point.
I kept staring in disbelief at the TV as Michigan took good looks that would go half-down and pop out. Meanwhile, Tech is running streetball offense on the other end canning off balance other 2s and turnaround banked-in 3s. Some days, you just get beat. Nothing for this team to hang their heads about. Tough game shooting. Need to hit the gym in the offseason to work on the outside stroke and reload for next year.
When the season started, I had said second weekend of the NCAA tournament is the expectation and after that, anything is gravy. I have nothing to complain about. This is still a 30-win team with double digit victories over multiple teams in the field, including 2 teams still left. The program is in good shape
Strange things: some of those horribly off target long shots, like the first one from Iggy mentioned in the article. Is depth perception in an unfamiliar arena a real thing? Man we threw up some that missed everything.
Tight Rims: is that a real thing? some shots just bounced in and out seemingly real hard. the rim didn't have a clang, more of a dead thunk.
Not excuses, just observations. I noticed the rims in the Gonzaga/ FSU game. Just a lot of rattling in and out of shots you don't typically see.
I long for the days of having a lights-out 3 point sharp shooter (Stauskas, Robinson, etc..) that was reliable. Going 1-19 from 3 in the tournament, albeit against a great defensive team in TT, is recipe for a blowout loss. And what happened...
Need to scour the D-III market for the next Duncan Robinson.
Scour Italy, Australia, Spain, and all Baltic and former Yugoslav republics. Plenty of Just-A-Shooter types.
Crazy to think that the last time we didn't make a three was with the 2013 team featuring Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway Jr., Glen Robinson III, LeVert, Albrecht . . . that team went 0-fer from downtown?
Even crazier: that team won the game. I think it was the Burke steal against Appling game. 0-12 from three.
Yep, definitely. I just rewatched that game on Youtube not too long ago. One of the announcers last night said something like: "The last time Michigan didn't hit a three pointer in a game, and this is going to trigger Michigan fans, was against Michigan State." And I was thinking to myself, "Screw you dude, we won that game."
Yup, if we hit our (not even that good)season average on 3's we have equal or more points than them. Last year against Villanova, even with DiVincenzo's explosion, if we hit our season average on 3's we have equal or more points than them.
All but 4 (and who cares about the other 3 tournaments, so really 1) teams end their season in a loss, and that loss is going to come when things like this happen. Especially when you're a good team, it takes particularly bad luck/bad night for that to happen.
Two things about Iggy.
The idea of him playing defense at the 3 is not great. He had issues staying in front of 4's, so I'm not sure how putting him on quicker players works.
That, and the infuriating misses at the rim on rebounds might go away after a summer lifting the right (Sanderson) way and building up his lower body while dropping some upper body mass.
There was definitely one charge that I can remember.
It is a cruel reality that we have no shooters on a team with a coach that values shooters. Iggy will improve. Poole is what he is, a great practice shooter but not a gamer. Maybe if he slows down a touch. Livers will be good but can't create his own. We really need a guard who can shoot and that is just not on the roster.
As far as transfers. Davis is certainly one but I don't think he cares about BBall enough to transfer away from U of M. I don't see the freshmen leaving, so who does that leave to transfer? Can we give the firm handshake to Davis? I doubt Eli is leaving after playing so much in the TTech game. (And why was that? Did we really think a guy who has made 2 three pointers all year would ignite the offense? Didn't we notice that there was no D without Teske?)
Once again we have squandered a final four appearance by not getting elite recruits and wasting spots on guys like Nunez. Wouldn't we have loved to recruit for his spot after the championship game?
Once again we have squandered a final four appearance
Dude, we've been to two Final Fours in the last six years. Just how many did you expect over that timeframe?
Well, yes, why not hope Eli would hit a few 3's. What the hell is wrong with that when no one else can? But he most likely came in for his D. Do you even really watch the team play this year?
Sorry if this is a thread hijack but probably not worth of its own independent thread, but what are peoples' thoughts on Gonzaga vs TT (aside from being pissed it isn't Michigan in that game)? While it'll certainly be an interesting contrast, I don't think Gonzaga is going to have seen anything like the defense TT plays. Yes, they have a good offense, but they spent the year feasting mostly on crap teams. I have not really watched a team play defense like TT did and I'm guessing they'll be a buzzsaw that Gonzaga isn't ready for (especially if the Italian guy's parents stay in town and he keeps shooting like he did last night).
Leaving this Picasso here...
1-for-19 is the new 27-for-27.
Except that here, we were taking what the defense was giving, most of the time.
I thought our actual shot selection wasn't that bad but we just couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.
4.5 long 2's and everything else 3's and layups, that's pretty fantastic shot selection (not knowing how many 3's were carson edwards style jacks), which means great coaching, great execution, bad ability to make 3's.
From memory, maybe two or three? I remember one first half possession where Iggy shot-faked a three to dribble and take a worse three, with about 20 seconds still on the shot clock, and I'm sure there were a couple of desperation shots. But mostly, it was just good looks that didn't fall.
March 30th, 2019 at 10:56 AM ^
It would be fascinating to tally the total feet of made shots like the PGA tabulates for putts.
A 23 footer, two 18 footers and the rest 1-3 footers, this team probably set a record for the fewest feet of made shots in NCAA tournament history.
"Projected top five pick Jarrett Culver"
Lottery probably, but almost no one is projecting him as top 5. Only mock I've seen is SI at 3, which seems insane. Zion, Barrett, Morant, Reddish, Hunter will likely be the top 5.
Garland, Hayes, Hachimura, White, Little, and others will also compete with Culver for a draft slot.
The alcohol industry thanks you for not bringing your voice of reason into things last night.
I recorded the game and watched it today, specifically looking at the 3 point shooting and turnovers. All but three of the 3 point shots were either wide open or lightly contested decent looks. Even the stepbacks were decent looks that a good 3 point shooter should make. We just missed them. It was the same with the turnovers, all but 3 were unforced errors. Basically, we beat ourselves last night with incompetent offensive play. TT is very good but we are on their par if we just play decently on offense. We left a few extra points at the charity stripe too. So I wouldn't read too much into one game.
We need to energize our offense somehow. We do have several elite offensive weapons (Iggy, Poole, Livers and even Matthews) but we haven't used them well. Matthews is elite at getting to the rim. The others are great perimeter shooters. Next year, we get the perimeter shooters back and need to use them better. We need to get them as many decent shots as possible and give them the green light. With volume, I think they will light it up from the outside. Stop settling for a Teske or Simpson three - that's not their game. And we need some other shooters to emerge next year - maybe Castelton, Nunez, DeJulius or even one of the freshmen can be that spark. I certainly expect any other returning players to improve and contribute as well.
Agree with a lot of this, but I'd like to see Teske and especially Simpson improve from beyond the arc - that would be big for our offense.
Yeah, Simpson just needs to practice those set shots team bait him into taking, like Northwestern. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to make half of those. If it's contesed at all, go around the guy.
Agreed. If they can get better from the perimeter, that's wonderful. But right now, others should be taking those shots.
If 30 wins and a Sweet Sixteen appearance during a season that was expected to be a rebuilding year is seen as a disappointment, then I think this program is in pretty good shape (especially when you consider the fact that we're expected to return nearly everyone next year).
Beilein uber alles. GO BLUE.
I do love what JB has/is doing here. The weird & random parts to this team has to be more frustrating for him than anyone else who has a mild case of "this team...wew, lads".
Teske plays in the post like a two guard, not having any orientation of where he is in the post. Most times when he has gone up to shoot, he's been blocked by either an opponent or the underside of the backboard, while falling down. But he's still fun to watch and he's very good defensively.
X/Z is a bulldog, a tremendous leader, and tenacious competitor. This is the part where you would say about a very nice girl with below average appeal, "She's got a nice personality". Dude has not jump shot. Amazing!
Poole is so dynamic, yet maddeningly impetuous with virtually anything on the court.
Iggy, learn to pass. That is all.
I don't know what this team did of note (besides losing the lowest amount of games in JB's tenure, win 30 games, make S16...again) but it sure does feel like this team did not deliver the goods, but by all metrics, they did. Hmmm.
Good write up.
Final Fours are extremely hard to come by.
With better luck, we have 3 final fours under Beilein, and with worse luck, we have zero.
That's just the nature of the beast that is the NCAA tourney. We lost in the S16. That really isn't bad at all. Really the only thing that stings are not beating MSU once and having them beat us for two titles. That's really it.
The tournament has "madness" in its name for a reason. We were beneficiaries of the madness last season, and we weren't this season. If it were so easy, Coach K would have a lot more than a 33% final four rate and have a lot more than 5 titles in 40 years. Coach Cal would also have a lot more titles. But they don't.
30-7 = excellent
Wins over UNC and Purdue may look excellent in a week
Making the S16 = very good
Losing to MSU 3 times, twice with titles on the line = heart crushing
A lot of good in the season, and a little to be desired. Oh well! This team did provide 4 months of a quality product, and competed for championships, so I'm mostly happy
Exactly, Poole and Burke miss unlikely 3's and we have 0 final fours and only two sweet sixteens. Hancock and DiVincenzo have average games and we have 2 championships. We shoot our average from 3 against villanova and we have a championship. We shoot our average from 3against TT and Walton makes a last second shot vs Oregon and we have 2 more elite 8s. You gotta be lucky and good to keep winning games in march.
Exactly, Poole and Burke miss unlikely 3's and we have 0 final fours and only two sweet sixteens.
Burke's shot came in the Sweet 16. We would have four Sweet 16s under Beilein in that scenario ('13, '14, '17, '19) though no Final Fours.
Of course we may have had one if the UK guy (Harrison?) hadn't drilled a last-second three against us in the Elite Eight in '14, when the game was tied. Beilein also was an overtime away from the Final Four at WVU (2005).
The key is to keep getting there and giving yourself a shot. Beilein's made it to the Sweet 16 seven times, five at Michigan. You get there enough and eventually good things will happen.
If you look at this as a rebuilding year, it's pretty damn successful. It was clearly a limited offensive team from the very beginning. Great defensive teams tend to beat teams with limited offensive options. Despite this, still very fun to watch.
I dont buy this. TTU replaced more than we did, MSU replaced a bunch of guys, and Purdue replaces a bunch of people too.
We were a very good basketball team, and got all the way to #2 in the country. "Rebuilding year" goes out the window when we're playing like one of the best teams in the country all year.
Agree that the sky isn't falling but that everyone has holes in their game that need fixing before next year. This all aligned at the worst time.
Also feel no one is NBA ready. Not like other years where true talent emerged and got it done in crunch time against other legit talent. Isn't the NBA a scoring league? We have no consistent offensive threat to provide to the NBA. Sorry. No draft worthy players yet. The coaches are doing the players a disservice recommending anything different.
That was the toughest Michigan basketball game to watch since the Walton/Cariss injury teams - I'm ready to watch this team next year!
Reactions to this column:
- Totally agree on the shooting luck. I don't give TT much credit for 0-18 as very, very few of those shots were face-palms from me when they went up. Many were WIDE open.
- TT did take a charge on Matthews in the second half. But only one.
- Next year's offense needs Iggy/Poole to be better. The team comment is true for sure, especially with Iggy's 31 assists in 37 games. But I also think we need the two of them to generate their own offense more consistently. When teams shut off ball screens, we need those two guys to create offense - even if it is iso. Burke, Stauskas, Levert and late-career Walton generated their own offense when things broke down. We nee more.
Both need to learn to take it to the rim off the dribble when their man is closing out on them after ball movement. Both also need to learn how to pass out of that take when things are closed off in the paint.
Depth next year
Is it possible that all the effort exerted on defense saps the legs a bit and explains late season shooting woes? With a seven man rotation, it’s hard to have fresh legs out there.
Need to get contributions from DDJ, Castleton, Eli and two others on both ends next year. I think Z will improve his outside shooting and Teske will learn some post moves.
Go Blue!
Rumors running on the Michigan recruiting Facebook page are iggy to the draft and Poole draft or transfer and these 2 have made up their minds 100% on those.
On the bright side, no complaints about auto-bench that game!
Left Z hook is already a thing. He just hasn’t used it in a game yet.
Random thoughts:
- the selection committee sucks - 3 ACC #1 seeds was total dog shit
- MSU is the best team in the elite 8 ... would be shocked if they don't win it all
- Auburn has the most momentum - who knows ? Barkley' head might explode!
- Duke sucks and buys players plus falsifies scientific data - fuck Duke they are bigtime slime
- CBS is great at hoops coverage
- TBS sucks at hoops coverage
End of rant
March 29th, 2019 at 11:42 PM ^
Simpson shoots fine enough... good at threes and those hooks are just as good as a jumper.
March 29th, 2019 at 11:58 PM ^
He is definitely not good at threes. Not at all. The hook doesn’t function as well as a jumper because it requires him to be close to the basket, so it lets his defender sag and prevent entry passes to the post.
March 30th, 2019 at 12:15 AM ^
Next season could really be dicey if the rumors of Iggy and Poole leaving are true. I doubt there is any highly rated recruits left that Beilein could actually land. Also, Franz Wagner is not coming. Still amazed how Beilein ended up with a team full of inconsistent shooters.
Hopefully the guys all shoot a billion jumpers this summer
If Iggy comes back I am optimistic. The dude can ball. I honestly think he had the best freshman year of anyone under Beilein, including Burke. If Iggy goes, woof. There’s just no one else on the team who could be the go to guy down the stretch. I guess we could pray for Jordan Poole to have a Levert-esque Renaissance...
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