Brick City, USA
3/28/2019 – Purdue 99, Tennessee 94 (OT) –
what
i mean did you see that game
look at this dude pointing at it
[Campredon]
it was really fun!
oh fine
3/28/2019 – Michigan 44, Texas Tech 63 – 30-7, 15-5 Big Ten, season over
I'm torn. On the one hand, walk-on CJ Baird crotching in a three in the desultory final moments of a 20-point game was somehow fitting. On the other, they showed a stat that it had been 261 games since Michigan had managed to go 40 minutes of basketball without hitting a single three, and that 0-fer in the box score would have been an even more powerful indicator of what happened than 1/19.
A collective mania set in as this was happening as the horrible results overwhelmed anyone's ability to process what happened before them. Four different threes rimmed out in the first half. A fifth was Michigan's first attempt, which was a blindingly wide open shot from Brazdeikis that barely grazed the front of the rim. Brazdeikis entered the game a 41% shooter from three, and did that with an uncontested catch and shoot look.
collective fanbase response to aforementioned shot
Michigan is a limited offensive team full of guys with major holes in their toolsets. Simpson can't shoot. Iggy can't pass. Poole can't stop oscillating wildly. Teske can't create his own shots. Matthews has some variety of all these issues. All these guys have assets that they managed to cobble together a top-25 offense out of, but there was a hard stop. So when they run up against a defense just as good as theirs they have a limited set of responses. When they run up against a team that's comfortable switching everything those responses narrow further.
When you are in this situation and literally do not hit a shot outside of the paint in the first 30 minutes you get run out of the building.
Last year's title game was against a very different team but was the same story. Michigan's offense did reasonably well inside the line, given the context (66% against Villanova, 50% against Texas Tech) and then had horrific, historically bad shooting from three (3/23 and 1/19) on looks that were more or less what you'd expect the opponent to give up. Tech did contest threes well; there were a couple of ugly stepbacks mixed in. But when Isaiah Livers rises up for a barely contested look in the corner where he's ~50% from and it rattles out to continue your 0-fer streak deep into the second half, there's nothing to say except "shit."
In a world where basketball consists of a million copies of every shot and you're awarded the average of your million trials, Texas Tech probably still wins this game. But, hell, hand Michigan 5 of their 18 pre-Baird attempts (28%, worse than Tech's season average allowed) and delete the banked-in prayer from Mooney and Baird isn't on the floor because it's a four-point game. The difference between a hard-fought game against an elite foe that aw-shucks you lost and last night's debacle is just shots going down or not.
Is there a reason that Michigan's last two seasons have ended in a flurry of bricks? To some extent, sure. I would kill and skin an entire herd of caribou for a shooter like Ryan Cline or Davide Moretti. The composition of this team leaves them vulnerable to nights where they can't hit anything. Versions of this column have popped up from time to time through the season. Michigan got in a 2 point game with Minnesota after going 3/22; there was nearly mass seppuku after a 3/19 night against Holy Cross.
nope [Campredon]
But also not really. Maybe there are reasons you go 25% from three. There are no reasons when you go 13% and 0%. Just frustration, and an offseason a little more sudden than hoped for. Michigan's started about five minutes into the second half. And while that sucks, Michigan basketball has never been in a better place. Don't let some bricks get that clouded.
[After THE JUMP: looking to the future]
BULLETS
Always next year. Charles Matthews exits, degree in hand, to go get paid somewhere. For the people who continually ask whether he's really leaving, yes he's really leaving:
"We're very sad that his college career is ending," John Beilein said, "But he will work his tail off to have a successful career going forward, and he'll have a big imprint on Michigan forever."
At this point it is fair to say that he has left.
Neither Brazdeikis or Poole had much to say on their futures:
"I'm not thinking about that stuff right now," Brazdeikis said.
Poole also said he hadn't given it any thought. "I'm just trying to be supportive for the guys around me right now. Guys like Charles that have dedicated so much time to basketball. (Zavier Simpson) is a leader. The managers, everybody. I'm just trying to stay in the current moment. That's really about it right now."
One or both may go through the pre-draft process like Matthews did a year ago but unless something changes drastically neither seems close to the first round. There have been rumblings over the course of the year that both would like to go as soon as possible. Exactly what the definition of "possible" is remains unknown.
If both guys come back the starting lineup is obvious: Livers slides into the starting lineup, likely bumping Iggy down to the three. Then Michigan will try to find three or four bench guys. Those are likely to be Castleton, some combination of DeJulius and Brooks, and then a wing free-for-all between Johns, Nunez, and whatever freshmen enter.
Michigan still has a couple of recruits on their radar, which implies that they're either bracing for attrition or just keeping their bases covered. There are a couple of obvious candidates for a playing time transfer.
[Campredon]
The Matthews conundrum. Matthews finishes his senior year at Michigan with a 98 ORTG on 24% usage. If we set aside Beilein's first year only one player in this era of Michigan basketball is in that ballpark: the junior version of Zak Irvin had a 98 ORTG on 23% usage, and that was the year senior Caris Levert* went out 14 games in. Prior to that Irvin was at 102 on 19% usage. Not since Beilein walked into Tommy Amaker's leftovers has Michigan been forced to rely so heavily on an offensive player that inefficient.
On the other hand, projected top five pick Jarrett Culver looked like just a guy until Michigan pulled Matthews in a desperate bid for some more offense. Whoever picks up Matthews's minutes—Livers will get about 10 as he goes from 20 to 30, but the other 20 are up for grabs—is going to have to significantly outpace Matthews's offense to make up for the inevitable defensive downgrade.
*[I had forgotten what a monster year he was in the midst of when he was struck down. 26% usage, a 127 ORTG, a 33 assist rate and 12 TO rate, shooting 53/45. Headed for national player of the year contention.]
Offseason projects. #1: Post entries. May have to violate the Beilein principle of Never Post Ever and incorporate a few per game just so they're in the practice in case they get a 1-to-5 switch. With Simpson back next year that's almost certain to be the case.
#2: Assuming Iggy and Poole return, incorporating them into more team-based shot creation instead of just iso stuff.
#3: Left Z hook. It's happening. Probably.
Honestly sort of encouraging bit. Iggy was 7/11 from two against the #2 two point D in the country, and one of his misses was a putback that touched every bit of the rim. He did not commit an offensive foul—Texas Tech in fact took no charges. He also had zero assists, as per usual.
Outside of Simpson, who was 0/5, Michigan actually shot 60% from two. Too many turnovers (14) was a problem, but I mean hit some threes and you're at a PPG. I dunno man.
I feel like there should be more to say but there isn't? The only efficient bits of Texas Tech's offense were Moretti and Culver when checked by Not Matthews; that played out about how you'd expect.
Tough ending to the season, but future is bright. Never forget where the program was at when Beilein arrived.
absolutely never forget that, but also never forget the fact that four years ago the knock was 'great offensive coach, but they need to be better defensively." what did he do? he did what great coaches and leaders do - he adapted, and he got some help.
the guy is the best coach in the history of the program, universally regarded as one of the best coaches in the country, and he's the cleanest guy out there. there's literally not one single coach i'd rather have.
don't let a disappointing blowout loss obscure that fact.
also - there are board nitwits suggesting that we're now stuck in a level just below...oh, let's just say "sparty"...because we use pick and roll instead of motion offense, or post offense, or run-pass-option or whatever.
those people are forgetting where we were before beilein arrived, and as a bonus idiocy are ignoring decades of evidence that beilein is one of the most nimble-minded and adaptive coaches you will ever find. i promise - he's not going into next season with the same offensive and defensive approach he had this season.
Promising things which one has no control over would seem to be a "nitwit" thing. There are many things to be played out that will have great impact on next year's team.
i think we can say with absolute certainty that beilein will tweak some things for next season.
Quick correction: Tech took a charge on Matthews toward the end. One charge on the game. Another was close in the first half, but they called a block on an Iggy drive.
Does Michigan still recruit "Just a Shooter"s? Would be nice to have one or two on the team.
Nunez may be that guy. But he needs to develop at least one other skill to see some real playing time.
And a shot
Where does Moe's little bro fit in? Is he available next year or is it the year after? It would be nice to have someone who can light it up from outside with the ability to take it to the hoop if closed on.
I'm still a little confused on Moe's brother, but from what I understand and from what I've heard on WTKA, he's taking visits this summer and theoretically would be a 2019 guy. Not sure how that's possible though since May 1st is the deadline for students to decide what school they're going to
We have several guys that can hit open threes: Livers, Poole, Iggy.
The problem is that we didn't have anyone that could reliably create open three for them (including their inability to create for themselves).
Simpson could against most teams but when a team could switch the pick and roll and thus not have to leave shooters to defend the roll guy and not have to help on drives (like MSU could do with Tillman and Tech could do with Owens), then things became a struggle.
We don't need Just Shooters. We need a creator.
Couldn't be any more right-er!
Simpson's lack of offense is going to be the anchor on this team. And his lack of size makes him a liability against larger guards as we saw last night.
If he doesn't develop a reasonable 3PT shot, the upside on this team is limited.
I feel like there should be more to post... but there isn't.
Like you said, it was really just a perfect storm. TT's D is elite and even an average offensive performance would have struggled to beat them. You simply can't miss every open three and expect to beat a team like that. You're gonna get run out of the gym every time.
Great season overall and I'm very excited for next year.
"A bad day to have a bad day"
1. since we complain about the refs alot, probably like every fan base, its worth mentioning that they weren't any part of the problem last night.
2. i have skinned way more than my share of caribou. a herd of caribou can be a lot, like hundreds. the problem with skinning caribou is that everywhere i've found them you will also find grizzly and you have to deal with the gut piles and the grizzlies. make sure you have an armed look-out.
...and a REALLY sharp knife.
you'll sharpen as you go, especially if you have more than one to do at a time.
We started getting fed up with the officiating about 6 minutes into the second half, when Michigan started getting called for ticky-tack reach-in fouls that TTU didn't. They also missed an obvious double-dribble on a Michigan runout, a travel on TTU that led to a kick-out three, and we were pretty sure that the foul that TTU as X stole the ball and was going in for an uncontested layup should have been ruled intentional. So, not perfect, but definitely not really a factor in the defeat.
Brian nailed it perfectly; Michigan got open looks and they missed at an amazing rate. Michigan was a 34.2% three-point team on the year; the odds of missing 18 consecutive shots as a 34.2% team are 2000-1 against. Even if you decide that Michigan is actually the worst three-point shooting team in the country by nearly three percentage points -- Jackson State is worst at 27.9%, so let's call it 25% -- the odds are still about 200-1 against.
I was 100% confident that Michigan would win at halftime, because Michigan was getting better shots than TTU and I assumed they'd regress to the mean. They didn't.
Who's we?
pretty sure he was referring to himself and your mom
The good people of section 435. Well, except for the family of TTU fans next to me. :)
I saw it the same way last night, felt the same way you did at halftime J. Yelled at some of the same calls you mentioned, at the top of my lungs from upgraded seats too. TT make some tough shots. We made almost no shots. If we played 20 more games, I am pretty sure Michigan would shoot better in each of them. But Texas Tech had a great night and it deserves credit for playing well and beating us. It was their night. I think Michigan will be a good team next year, and for years to come as long as Coach Beilein is leading the program. We said and written by you J and by Brian.
From what I saw at the game I actually thought both teams played hard on defense, be we just could not buy a basket unless off a good pass and cut inside. Coldest shooting night I can remember for Michigan.
XM, you are the second most interesting man in the world.
processing caribou in the alaskan bush isn't quite as interesting as it sounds, its more about being really careful and bear-safe. i remember one time literally stripping our bloody clothes off as we were walking back to camp, having hung the caribou quarters up in trees to keep them safe from the griz, and leaving our bloody clothing along the way. grabbing soap and walking into a glacially cold stream and trying to 'wash' in 50 degree weather. granted that was followed by an epic fire and bbq of the tenderloins of some of the caribou, but yeah, guns out just in case.
always hunt down wind of camp.
March 30th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
Shedding bloody clothes on the way back to camp—epic final scene for a Cohen bros movie, or for some people just another day of ‘vacation’.
March 30th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
So your telling me... If I want to photograph a Grizzly I just need to find Herb Caribou?!
Where can I found that fella?
Please. Outside of the jokes. Basket is over, I have nothing to photog outside of some brid'zilla for the next few months.
I would rather face a grizzly. When can I come?
Where have you gone Glenn Rice?
You don't even want to know, man.
[INSERT SARAH PALIN .JPG HERE]
More like insert Rice amirite?
Like you said, the game was over after 5 minutes in the second half. Had UM been the one on the 10-2 run, the game is totally different.
What drove me crazy last night was seeing people claim going 0-fer from 3 was some moral failing of the coaches and players. Like, you can have structural issues and shoot 22% from 3; it takes a a lot of bad luck to shoot in the single digits. Texas Tech probably wins that game more time than not, but it's much closer with a bit more luck.
Matthews being gone next year is going to be weird for the defense; my guess is they take a step back but, one hopes, gets a bit more offensive firepower from that spot.
The season ended with a thud but a "rebuilding" year that finishes in the top-15 and with most of that production coming back is pretty encouraging. I also have immense faith that the staff will address these issues and they'll be better capable of countering them.
Losing Matthews on defense will obviously hurt, but replacing him with Livers isn't a massive step down. Won't be a top 2 defense like this year, but should still be top 10 between Simpson, Teske, and Livers wasn't chop liver.
I think the offensive upside is bigger than the defensive downside not just as a 1:1 replacement, but what it could also do for the other 2 shooters on the court.
Absolutely agree about Livers as an offensive player. But Matthews really did give a lot of freedom to the rest of the guys on defense; Yaklich has mentioned that a couple of times recently that Matthews could be plugged in anywhere and make the guys around him better.
The perfect fix for the offense would be for Teske or Simpson to develop a reliable, dangerous outside shot. Barring that (which seems unlikely unless Simpson just sky-hooks them), someone like DDJ (or some other guard) needs to emerge as a shooting threat off the bench. That way, when you get into a situation like last night you can go smaller (with Livers at the 5) and either swap out Simpson or pair him with another crack shot and secondary ballhandler.
simpson should teach teske a hook shot. teske also needs to work on a power move and 3s. quit flipping the ball off the backboard, go up strong and dunk the damn ball with authority. practice, practice, practice.
As usual, good posts.
Teske and Simpson are both inaccurate from distance and slow with their releases, a bad combination that means that even if they can shoot 33% when wide open they are rarely really wide open. In fact, all of the shooters, even the good ones, need some open space to make shots. Nobody has the combination of quick release and vertical to “shoot them selves open” the way we see with real sharpshooters.
Thing is, I’m not sure Simpson and Teske are going to do much more than get a bit better at what they already do. They’re really good at a lot, but I just don’t see them ever being real shooting threats, and that means we have challenges to overcome.
I could actually see Livers blossoming on offense before that. He’s shown some flashes.
Yeah, I don't think Simpson or Teske will make dramatic improvements, though with Teske's size you could see a world where he tightens his delivery up a bit and he can just shoot over most defenders.
I agree about Livers growing into a big part of the offense. Castleton might also surprise a bit; he's a willing (if growing) defender and he had enough range coming out of HS to make you think he could be the stretch 5 Beilein loves. It's weird, but this team really was a bridge between the MAAR/Robinson/Mo era and what looks like some solid young guys. If a couple of them can make the necessary leaps next year, Michigan could well field a team with top-10 offenses and defenses, and then watch out.
I'm not sure how much of a step back we actually take next year on defense. Each player should be better and our defense seems to be as good as its weakest link, at least against top teams. In last night's game, we're probably putting Livers on Culver and he has a similar night and an improved Poole allows Moretti fewer open looks. It's a tradeoff, but we probably come out even.
agreed 100% - i'd only "correct" you to say that it's much closer with less BAD luck. the threes rattling in and out early were bad, bad signs.
#2: Assuming Iggy and Poole return, incorporating them into more team-based shot creation instead of just iso stuff.
Yeah, maybe just a bit.
I said it on the post game thread, watching Purdue immediately before this game was a stark contrast in an offense that actually has a PG who can shoot but not entirely relying on him to do so. Edwards shoots a ton (sometimes to the detriment of the team), but they ran actual sets with multiple screens. Double screens, staggered screens, slips screens (off the ball) to get guys like Haarms dunks and Cline open catch and shoot 3s. It was what Michigan's offense used to be before it became Iso/P&R. Yes, Michigan doesn't have a Cline bombing away from everywhere, but Poole/Livers/Iggy are not pull up shoots for the most part. Or, at least their efficiency drops off a cliff worse than others when they go from catch and shoot to pull ups.
Running a P&R offense with a PG who can't shoot and a Center who can't post has a hard ceiling that tops out at just good, but never good enough especially against good defenses. It's either a layup/hook from Simpson or a dunk by Teske. That's the extent of the good outcomes (and the 2 months where Teske could hit a 3).
It's the way basketball is going on a whole, but not the way it should go if you don't have Burke/Stauskas/Walton dribbling the ball. And it's a detriment to Poole/Iggy/Livers because after the initial screen and rescreen, they get the ball with 8 seconds on the shot clock and their defender in their shorts because no one has to help on an all switching defense/a defense not worried about helping on drives.
The problem is more teams are capable of switching everything and keeping the P&R/off ball screens from causing defensive rotations that don't give guys as many catch and shoot opportunities as before when Goron Suton couldn't leave the lane for fear of tripping.
Developing a post game for Teske will help on switch everything teams. That raises the ceiling some. But it doesn't fix the PG can't shoot problem that still allows teams to switch and not rotate.
I'm not a basketball Xs and Os guy, but I found myself last night wondering if we are close to the reemergence of the post up 7 foot center.
All defenses seem to care about these days is whether their "5" can switch onto a "1" but no one ever seems to test the fact that then the "1" has switched onto a "5."
In the olden days, it would be insanity to switch a 1 onto a 5. The 5 would get 40 points on 65% shooting (see Shaq). With the fact that it seems that 5s are only rated on their ability to hit 3 point shots, this allows the defense to get away with the 1 on 5 switch.
It seems to me the real key is developing an offense where the 1 on 5 switch is severely punished to the point that defensive help is a given. This of course, means you always have an open shooter.
Something tells me Michigan tried to do this some last night. They went to Teske several times, but god bless him, the guy doesn't even know where to stand to catch an entry pass - let alone know what to do after he gets one.
I would not be surprised if the "next" iteration of basketball strategy involves bringing back effective post play.
Post play hasn’t gone completely away, it’s just not the focus anymore. But a good post player is still going to get post-up touches and score. The difference is that elite big men need to do more than just score in the post, but the guys who bring all that to the table remain terrific players. Joel Embiid is a good example of this in the NBA.
#1: Post entries. May have to violate the Beilein principle of Never Post Ever and incorporate a few per game just so they're in the practice in case they get a 1-to-5 switch. With Simpson back next year that's almost certain to be the case.
Beilein said in his post-game comments that improving Teske's post up game was an off-season project. That they didn't do it this season was because Teske wasn't comfortable doing it. I think Beilein's quote was "if the guy's not comfortable doing it, I'm not running it."
He also mentioned working on everyone's iso game.
Yeah, I actually thought the offense functioned quite well when Michigan wasn't turning it over.
Got Iggy some easy buckets, got Poole a couple easy layups in the first half, got Teske fouled a few times (him going 2-6 hurt), it did get a pretty good number of open three point looks.
I agree that with the turnovers, Michigan still doesn't win that game with an average 3 pt shooting night. Live I thought many of the turnovers were just sloppy plays moreso than Tech's defense forcing them but their help and pressure could have caused the sloppy play.
I felt a lot of the turnovers off the dribble were due to indecision. Guy would drive into the lane and hesitate on what he wanted to do and dribble it off his foot or TT would swat it away. Their inside guys had very active hands.
Yeah, I think that's probably accurate.
RE: The offense - I forget which commentator said it last night but it’s really hard to play lights out defense all night long when you come up empty on the other end. It’s deflating and when you can’t rally to make buckets against good defensive teams, no me gusta
Tech's defense was really, really good. I'd say it was probably 70% good defense / 30% sloppy play, at least in the first half. In the second half, it may have pivoted more toward Michigan desperation.
I think if they played 10 times, each team would likely win 5. This wasn't a situation where "the game was closer than the score would indicate," but I definitely think the teams are closer than the score would indicate. TTU would be about a 51% KenPom favorite in the rematch.
Comments