OT: How OSU Sold DJ Carton
Hate to reopen an old wound, but The Athletic posted a puff piece on DJ Carton yesterday that has a few tidbits on his recruiting. Given that Michigan was leading for him just about up until the end, it was interesting to see what actually mattered to him.
As most speculated at the time, Ohio State's lack of point guard depth was a selling point. Ohio State told him they would let him play as a freshman and let him "make mistakes." We know that doesn't happen for a freshmen point guard under Beilein.
While, Ohio State didn't treat Carton as a potential one-and-done, it did "embrace the idea" that he could leave early for the NBA - which, per the article, Michigan did not do. Specifically, Ohio State pitched Carton on following Duke legend Jay Williams' career path:
"1. Win Big Ten Freshman of the Year, a conference championship and make the Sweet 16 in year one.
2. Be an All-American and national champion in year two.
3. Be National Player of the Year, a graduate and an NBA lottery pick after year three."
This made me laugh, as the team goals seem very unlikely. I would think only him winning freshmen of the year has any real likelihood of occurring. So they sold him on a dream and really focused on individual achievement. I'm betting Beilein doesn't really go for the latter.
Other notable items. It sounded like Carton was ready to commit to Michigan after his visit, but his step-father got him to hold off. And apparently Beilein called Carton during his Ohio State visit, and later apologized for doing so. The man is just too nice!
January 30th, 2019 at 9:36 PM ^
I'm fine, and this point of contention has been a royal waste of time.
How about "kid", "emotionally immature high schooler", etc? I coached for a couple years and had about 12-15 kids move on to the NCAA, and I was privileged to coach a couple kids that ended up ranked in the top 100. They're capable of making rational decisions on their own, but the recruiting process is extremely hard on them. In fact, one of the kids had Michigan/OSU going after her pretty hard (ended up choosing a different P5 school). It's just a hard process
January 30th, 2019 at 4:30 PM ^
Because he's an 18 year old who fell for a stupid, delusional pitch by a struggling, underachieving program. People always call 18 year olds "children" and I don't get it
January 30th, 2019 at 4:59 PM ^
For those of us who practice in the pediatric world, anyone who claims that an 18 year old male qualifies as an adult is met with a good belly laugh. The general rule of thumb is that the male does not attain emotional maturity until age 25...and I think that is being generous. This is the real world.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:13 PM ^
A person who has not yet graduated high school to me is a kid/child. Legally they are an adult, but they are very emotionally immature.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
Sounds like he would not have been a good fit here. I would wish him all the best, but he goes to OSU so. Hope he does well as a pro?
January 30th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
Hahahahahahaha
osu's last national title was during Eisenhower administration when Bobby Knight was a player on their team.
They haven't even gotten out of the first weekend of the tournament in over half a decade.
Methinks someone didn't wanna compete with a senior Zavier Simpson, David DeJulius and even Eli Brooks.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:00 PM ^
Hold the phone — Bobby Knight is an OSU alum!? Jesus, I did not think I could despise that school and man any more than I already did.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:05 PM ^
I did not know that either.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:36 PM ^
Yes he is. His jersey hangs from the rafters or at least it did at the old arena. The tv cameras would always pan to that late or early in a game. Jerry Lucas was a key member of that team.
January 30th, 2019 at 6:30 PM ^
Makes sense. Woody Hayes taught him some moves, I'm sure.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:11 PM ^
If that's the case, then I hope our football team never pitches national title aspirations to recruits, given our 0.5 titles since Truman was in office. Not to mention the fact that we haven't won our division in the 8 years they have existed, and even before then haven't won any share of the conference title since 2004.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:00 PM ^
What a strawman. Michigan Football last won a mythical national title in 1997, osu's last basketball title was 1960. Not even a comparison. 1997 is at least within a few years of people we're recruiting now's birth year as opposed to something before color TV was a thing.
Only simpletons and rival fans say 0.5 titles.
And guess what? If Michigan wanted to do what Alabama does and claim everything and anything, they could claim titles in 1964, 1973 and 1985 as well.
As for the stuff about conference titles, if we're pitching to any recruit that we're gonna be a pop-up dynasty then we're just lying.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:01 PM ^
The 1997 team did not win a .5 title. They went undefeated and won the national championship and any true Michigan fan knows this.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
Depth chat is so important in basketball. From what it sounds like, DJ loved Michigan. But he also looked @ the reality of sitting behind Simpson, DDJ, and Brooks next year. Possibly still behind DDJ after that. As a top 25 recruit in the country, sitting for 2 years doesn't sound too appealing.
He can start next year for OSU and be a part of a Top 10 recruiting class. Would love to see him go somewhere other than OSU, but I don't blame the kid whatsoever.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
I wonder if they gave Andrew Dakich the same pitch
January 30th, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^
They probably just sold him on playing time. He was not going to get significant minutes at Michigan, especially with Zavier finally solidifying his role as a defensive beast, and Brooks coming in. Dakich played significant minutes at OSU
January 30th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
Dakich was a planned transfer for years. Remember, Michigan planned to give him a redshirt twice and had to torch it due to injuries, and it was explicitly stated that this was to give him another year of eligibility somewhere else after he graduated.
So he was going somewhere that he could contribute. As it happened, OSU had a real need for him, and he got minutes and a year of grad school. He was definitely not going to get those minutes here.
I don't like that it was OSU, but the Dakich transfer could not have been more appropriately handled by everyone.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^
Exactly. Bummer he went to OSU, but I hate this "he doesn't want to compete" narrative. He's a kid who wants to play basketball, and it makes more sense at his position to choose a different school.
Some people on here and Twitter become so vitriolic when a kid we're recruiting chooses a different school. They start attacking his character or intelligence and it's just a bad look.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
Agree.
A guy with his profile can (and should) legitimately think he could win the job from DDJ, even if it's not guaranteed. But there is no way he would start over Simpson, whose starting role next year is as much of a lock as any anywhere in college basketball.
If Carton is that good of a prospect, it's not unreasonable at all for him to look for a good school where he can start in year one. It's actually kind of wise if he has legitimate NBA hopes; millions of dollars are on the table.
Woulda been nice if he had gone out of conference, but I can't blame the guy.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:16 PM ^
He wasn't going to sit behind DDJ or Brooks if he came here. Carton's recruiting profile is in a different stratosphere than those two, and neither have done squat this year despite there being ample opportunity for a backup guard to contribute.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
I dunno. Carton is a 247 composite 4-star with a score of .9897, which may just seem like randomly assigned bullshit numbers to the critical thinker, but let's agree they are gospel and do the math. DDJ was also a composite 4-star .9572.
So as a High School senior, it is clear that Carton is .0325 better than high school DeJulius. .0325 of what? Nobody knows because, ya know, arbitrary ratings of players who never played each other used to sell internet subscriptions. But I digress.
How much is a year of experience running a college offense against Zavier Simpson in practice worth? I feel it's worth .0649. So when you add that in, Sophomore DeJulius is actually a 1.0221. And that's better than Freshman Carton. So Carton would probably redshirt behind Simpson and DDJ (and Brooks will remain a utility hybrid 1/2 because he's excellent in his role and yes I'm throwing this in there to see if I can trigger your irrational Brooks hatred).
I think this was productive. Carton would be nice, but he'd be three years away from contributing thanks to DDJ's year of experience. It's right there in the numbers.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:06 PM ^
Your overall point stands but if you are a top 25 player with NBA aspirations and can't crack the starting lineup within 2 years, I don't know what to tell you. It's your job to beat out guys ahead of you, especially if the guys ahead of you are not as highly rated.
While DDJ should be a solid player, I don't know that he would be a total roadblock to a top 25 guy. If that's the case, why would anyone every go to Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, etc? Those schools have deeper talent pools than does Michigan and they don't get rid of every roster player each year.
January 30th, 2019 at 6:01 PM ^
"It's your job to beat out the guys ahead of you". Well, no, because you can choose to go somewhere with an immediate need for your talent. The freshman learning curve in basketball is not as steep as football.
Also, you may want to think a little bit about your Kentucky comment...
January 30th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^
I think a lot of this odd stuff comes down to the kid’s advisors. If you have someone telling you, look, you have a lot of talent, but a lot to learn. Go where you can learn and if it takes a bit longer to go pro, so be it. You will be better prepared. If you have people telling you how great you are and that you should be on the court immediately, you are going to fall for the idea that you can step right in and play. For every LeBron James who could step right in, there are 100 guys like Hardaway and Burke and Matthews who improved dramatically with good teaching and have or will play pro ball. You need good confidants when you are 17.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^
OSU looks like it has a pretty long rebuild ahead of it. Carton wants to be a part of that, rather than playing for Big Ten and national championships, then that's his preference. Not too upset about losing this one.
January 30th, 2019 at 7:00 PM ^
Rebuilds can happen quickly in basketball given how ready top freshman often are. Some teams literally rebuild every single season. Besides, OSU just competed for a B1G title last year under Holtmann. Easy to forget that they were 15-3 and missed a conference title thanks to two losses to PSU. So Holtmann is clearly a really good coach and is capable of competing for B1G titles.
They have a really good class coming in. Three top 50 guys. They return everyone from a top 40 team this year except Jackson (which is exactly why they're attractive to Carton). They'll be in the top third of the conference next year, I bet. And they'll compete for a conference title the following year.
January 30th, 2019 at 9:15 PM ^
OSU's run last year was helped in no small part by fortuitous scheduling and having a really good senior holdover. This year is probably how last year should have gone, and even a couple of top-50 guys isn't going to necessarily make them comparatively better than teams like MSU and Michigan, to say nothing of the IU's, Purdue's, Wisconsin's, etc. of the world.
Teams can rebuild quickly if they get Kentucky/Duke-level talent. OSU's class is good but it doesn't seem quite at that level, and so I'd be a bit surprised if they could turn the page quite that quickly.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^
OSU sucks, but I don’t care that he chose another school. Everyone has reasons, even if we think they’re specious. But I do wonder if, looking at both teams and they’re probable trajectories, he may be harboring some regrets?
I would be...
January 30th, 2019 at 3:58 PM ^
Who knows. OSU every once in a while lands some pretty ridiculous recruits and recruiting classes, and it wouldn't surprise me if that happens soon.
Also, it was Matta, but Russell and Conley are legit NBA point guards. Our best pros were shooting guards in college, and our point guards usually don't pan out that well in the NBA. If I'm a shooting guard with NBA hopes but am in the 80-150 range, I'm choosing Beilein.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:34 PM ^
They're 2019 class has 3 top 35 guys. I would consider that a ridiculous recruiting class. Also, neither Russell nor Conley played under Holtman so that argument should be null
January 30th, 2019 at 5:13 PM ^
Please inform me of the last top 25 PG that Michigan signed and didn't produce in the pros.
Saying that 3 star Trey Burke won national player of the year but had not dominated in the pros isn't exactly a ding against Michigan.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:15 PM ^
I'm not saying it's a ding. Just that the two most prominent OSU NBA players are PG's. Our top guys are shooting guards.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
I don't know if you wonder that, but know I certainly do.
January 30th, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
Just my opinion, but I would prefer the coaches avoid one and done's. I prefer the student-athletes actually come with at least the intent to graduate, not simply treat this as an extended (1 year) summer camp before trying for the NBA.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:19 PM ^
I would prefer Michigan signs the absolute best players they possibly can and if they are good enough to play in the NBA after one season then so be it. It's a joke they make these kids go to college in the first place but you would be foolish to turn down 1 and done talent if you can get it.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:11 PM ^
Universities with extracurricular athletic clubs shouldn't operate like that (nor be allowed to do so). Again, just my opinion. Still wish the best for the players themselves.
January 30th, 2019 at 7:43 PM ^
What on earth are you talking about? Michigan's athletic department makes over $180 million dollars in revenue a year. If that makes you uncomfortable then quit watching, otherwise stop your bitching. It's coming off as idealistic, unrealistic, and just plain ridiculous.
January 30th, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^
If that's what he wants, so be it. It's an outrageous fantasy that will never happen at OSU
January 30th, 2019 at 4:35 PM ^
Im sure he's questioning his decision after seeing Michigans success this year and the beatdown last night
I think next years class is perfect. Jalen Wilson and Cole Bajema. Both 6'8 scoring wings who can knock down 3's. Seems to be exactly what we'll need to reload on anyways.
January 30th, 2019 at 6:34 PM ^
I'm sure he's not questioning it all. Last night would have only served to reinforce his decision. Why? Because Zavier Simpson, world beater, is going to be a 35+ minute per game starter for Michigan next year and Carton would have almost no chance of beating him out. Again, last night only reinforced that.
January 30th, 2019 at 5:12 PM ^
Maybe it's best that he goes there since our student section is too rowdy according to Momma Wesson. "Spitting, cursing and throwing foam lights" at the opposing team. And apparently according to her, the Administration allows for this behavior. I'm glad that Carton is going to such a wonderful, respectful school that puts their morals and values first ?
January 30th, 2019 at 5:38 PM ^
Nowadays many kids make decisions based on how soon they can get to the money. Carton is no difference than any other young man who excels in a sport. The age when they go to college to get a degree or play for their choice of schools is passing us by as more and more are lured by the riches of pro sports. Some go to schools to play sooner, some skip bowl games so as not to get injured and other take out insurance policies against injury.
I know I want the best players not only to come but also to stay for all four years. I want to win every game and see opponents and rivals throttled. Ohio State gets players from Michigan, Michigan gets players more players from Ohio, that's the way the game goes.
Live with it.
January 30th, 2019 at 6:01 PM ^
January 30th, 2019 at 6:38 PM ^
What would stop him? Zavier Simpson would stop him. Carton wouldn't play even if he's good enough to be a one-and-done. Zavier Simpson may not be an NBA player but he's that good in college.
January 30th, 2019 at 6:27 PM ^
I'm not even mad. Beilein is basically the MacGyver of development at the PG position. If Carton wanted to play for a defense first coach who doesn't have that same record, more power to him. I hope he likes taking Ls to Michigan.
January 30th, 2019 at 6:51 PM ^
"We know that doesn't happen for a freshmen point guard under Beilein." re: letting guys play as freshman knowing they'll make mistakes.
This is completely false.
Darius Morris started and played big minutes as a freshmen and made LOTS of mistakes.
Trey Burke started and played big minutes as a freshman and made plenty of mistakes.
Derrick Walton started and played big minutes as a freshman and made plenty of mistakes.
They all played early because they were the best options (even if they were the only options). Beilein plays his best players.
Z played 10 min a game as a freshman. Beilein "let" him play, but he clearly wasn't better than Walton so 5-10 min is what he deserved.
He even "let" Brooks play and start as a freshmen and then Z beat him out.
DDJ hasn't played yet because he is not yet better than Brooks or Simpson.
Of course, OSU will "let him play". They don't have better players on the roster.
January 30th, 2019 at 7:52 PM ^
Some good news. Enjoy!!
January 30th, 2019 at 9:06 PM ^
There is no team in the world where an AA on a national championship team would return for his junior year unless he was literally handcuffed to the gym's door and couldn't find the key.
I will not knock a guy for going elsewhere. OSU basketball has a solid coach and some talent; while I sorta doubt they'll compete for a conference title next year crazier things have happened. But if your goal is to make the NBA as a guard I'd frankly be more intrigued by a team that put Morris, Burke, Walton, etc. into the league versus a school that struggles to get anyone drafted, let alone PGs.
January 31st, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
Imagine what Zavier Simpson will do to this kid as a freshman...