Random Collection of Football Thoughts. Comments welcome
Here is a random collection of Michigan football thoughts. While some of this may be "statements of the obvious," your comments are welcome. Note that I love Michigan football and do have many positive things to say about them. However, this post is meant to be a "look in the mirror" with an eye toward getting better.
1) Jim Harbaugh is a lot like Bo Schembechler. Both ran a run-heavy offense that was predicated on having a dominant man on man advantage over your opponent. As was the case with Bo, this will work against much of the Big Ten/the non-conference schedule, but will often fail against OSU, at least 1 other B1G opponent, and many likely bowl opponents. With more parity in college football these days, JH will do slightly worse than Bo if things continue this way. A National Championship is out of the question, but finishes near number 10 nationally (with a bowl loss more often than not) will become the norm. Just like Bo. We can do better.
2) JH and staff are great teachers of fundamentals. Marginal players often become Solid players. Huge gaffes are much less common than they were under Brady Hoke. What disturbs me is that Good or Very Good players do not become Great players. Great players do not become Superstars (although I appreciate him, I consider Rashan Gary a disappointment). We desperately need people to make big plays. I wonder if the emphasis on "doing your job" is taken to such an extent that people in this system are just not free enough to make big plays?
3) The weakness of Wisconsin and MSU this year makes our season look even worse.
4) We have a good QB and good receivers. Our O Line has improved. At this point, our offensive issues look increasingly schematic. I like how the offense is simpler this year, but we still have too many plays that require multiple things to go right vs a quick hitting offense that uses misdirection to quickly get people the ball in space.
5) Every year the team peaks after the first third of the season and then looks bad in the final third of the season. This is even after adjusting for the end of year strength of schedule (e.g., we always seem to struggle with Indiana). Is our team tired and worn out at the end of the year? Are 4 hour practices good at the start of the year and counter-productive at the end? Is there another issue that contributes to this end of year physical and mental fatigue?
6) I did not care for the outright arrogance of the players after the big win streak that they had this year. Guaranteeing wins and blabbering about the Revenge Tour. I thought the coaches showed this same arrogance in the uncreative game plans vs OSU/Florida that smacked of arrogance. The 2017 OSU game plan was VERY creative because we (correctly) assumed we were the underdog. The 2018 game plan seemed to assume that we were just the better team. We need to smack this arrogance down and create an "underdog with a chip on your shoulder" mentality like Saban and Dantonio do. I know that these efforts often seem silly and fake, but I prefer the coach that is constantly saying "we can do things better." Alabama has a right to be arrogant, yet shows far less arrogance than we did.
7) We are taking some really good players for granted (particularly the WRs) and now I am betting that we are going to lose some of these players to transfers. This is just sad. Losing Oliver Martin or Tarik Black would be tragic.
8) Don Brown can just assume that opponents will put two WRs in a stack on one side (overloading one side with talented players and making it harder for the corner to get his hands on the trailing WR) and run picks / inside slants off of this. Starting with Northwestern, everyone has done this to us. But the good teams have gashed us. They have also found ways to match fast RBs on our slower linebackers fairly consistently. We dodged A LOT of bullets this year in that regard.
9) By the end of the year when opposing offensive lines are working well together as units and Don Brown blitz packages seem to lose their effectiveness. The chaos created in the first 6 weeks seems to disappear at the end of the year.
10) Nepotism (Jay Harbaugh) and not firing or being slow to fire your friends (Pep and Drevno) are not good things. It may be "classy" to let these guys find another job first, but they are probably not doing their current jobs in the meantime. We lost Dan Enos to our slowness in dealing with Drevno. I am betting that Pep will struggle to find a job and this will affect our ability to land a good OC.
11) We need one mind directing the offense on game day. Offense by committee will result in dysfunction that would take a very long post to fully explore. Don't do it.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:31 PM ^
Lol. You nor I have a FKN clue what the 'cancer' is; but, Florida nor OSU had starters sitting out..
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^
OSU was trying to win their first Rose Bowl in the decade and their retiring coach’s first ever not a Peach Bowl. And does Joey Bosa quitting mean there is a cancer there?
Florida has 0 first round guys which Bush and Gary are. No idea what JBB was doing.
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:51 PM ^
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
A more positive response to some of your takes.
1. I think we’re underestimating just how bad the O-line has been the last two seasons. 2015 and 2016 Michigan had a dynamic offense and threw the ball consistently. If we can develop a couple tackles, particularly a LT, I think the passing game will open up.
2. Other than DPJ, the receivers aren’t very fast. Nico is clearly a possession guy, and Black has had two major injuries. Martin may just be average. When he’s been on the field the catches that would impress me he drops. The incoming class of receivers is stock full of quick twitch slot types. This tells me Harbaugh knows he needs to utilize this position going forward.
3. The defense was overrated this season. 2016 was our best and I even thought 17’s was better, but that’s debatable. The DTs were average and Gary was hurt all year. This is wild speculation but I think he was promised to play DE and would have been an inside guy if he wasn’t the #1 player. Again that’s all me and no inside info, but I think he would have been way better on the inside, and will play there in the NFL.
4. The biggest key to Don Brown’s defense is corner and safety. They’re about to get a lot faster at safety with the incoming class. Dax can cover like a corner and will most likely start immediately. Metellus is above average. Out of him and Kinnel I’m glad he’s the one coming back. Zordich has yet to have a drop off at corner and I don’t expect one with Hill returning.
5. This recruiting class emphasizes speed to me above almost everything else. Especially at safety and receiver. I think the coaches know the weak spots on the team and are trying to correct them. Like everyone else I’ve been disappointed in the play calling on offense the last two seasons, but 2015 and 16 tell me Harbaugh isn’t Bo. If next season things don’t change I’ll look like an idiot, but the evidence, at least to me, points to things changing.
6. I know some will think I’m being optimistic with my points, but I’ve been hard on the staff in all of our losses. I believe these are realistic takes based on the recruiting evidence and past play calling. The only change I’d like to see is Pep leaving. Two guys I’d like as replacements are: Todd Monkin the now fired OC in Tampa Bay, previously the OC at Oklahoma State when they went 12-1. The other is Jedd Fisch.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
I think we need more comments like this... Tired of reading the same old hand ringing, thread after thread. I will always believe better days ahead.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
DPJ is a strider, he may be fast in a straight line but he doesn’t have a lot of shiftiness to him. And when in football do you run in a straight line?
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:31 PM ^
What? You don’t put a straight line runner as your punt returner.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:17 PM ^
1. 2015 I'll give ya but mine and your definition of Dynamic must be different. Yes Ruddock, Chesson, Darboh, Butt was at least utilized way more than what we have now. And what we have now is better if we would fucking use it. There was very little running highlights from the years you mentioned.
2. Nico is faster than DPJ and seems to be the only one who gets separation. SP just never gets the ball out on time. DPJ is better at YAC. They both rock and seem to always make the play when its thrown their way.
3 & 4. If you count on one or two guys to make or break your D yer probably fucked if one or two of those guys go down.
5. Hard to fix your weak spots with freshmen. Playcalling is regressing.
6. Pep has to go. NOW. If he has some brilliant mind that none of us can see and Harbs is overruling him on every play call that's one thing. But I have heard at least 2 different sets of commentators talk about the Pep "body blow" philosophy during the game. To the point were I wanted to start breaking shit. Body blows only work if you can throw a heavy punch. Dumb fuckers.
January 2nd, 2019 at 7:39 PM ^
Your definition of dynamic is correct. I meant more specifically they were an offense that could really throw the ball. Michigan is not better in pass block than 15 and 16
DPJ is faster than Nico. That’s just a fact. I’m not saying Nico can’t get open, you can be a big possession receiver and dominate. Marquise Walker, and Adrian Arrington are a couple examples. What Michigan is lacking is quick twitch speed guys.
One our two guys make the difference when you’re playing man to man almost every time and your slower than the other team. See the difference when they had Delano Hill and Dymonte Thomas at safety? They could cover any receiver because they were fast enough.
Freshmen can be the difference. Especially at skill positions. With the number of recruits they’re bringing in it would be almost impossible not to have immediate contributors. I don’t disagree that the play calling sucked and it was suprising it wasn’t better in the big games, but what I’m saying is there are some mitigating circumstances. The O-line is one and the receiver position lacking quick twitch speed guys is the other. If next year is the same then we’ll all be pissed.
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
2 thoughts.
Why is it "tragic" to lose players you never use?
&
Since I can't make threads - need to know where all the: Shea Patterson is so awesome and it's epically awesome he is coming back threads?
January 2nd, 2019 at 7:53 PM ^
You must have missed the Shea is coming back thread about a week ago...
January 2nd, 2019 at 3:56 PM ^
I believe your points to have reason and legitimacy...whether I agree with all of them or not.
I think your best made point is 2b...not freeing players to make great plays. The indicators are that, at the most crucial of times, Michigan plays with a fear of failing. This is a tough/difficult/painful-even unfair criticism to make...from a coaching side. With 22 players of the field this is the ultimate team game...yes, each player has specific responsibilities...true greatness, however, includes making the off-script plays that cover for your teammate getting beat-because the chances of your team winning all 11 individual battles are next to zero. Coaching this is very tricky business.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:02 PM ^
Interesting thoughts, but I think you’re off base on many.
First, to say what can and will happen, is a fools errand. The fact that Harbaugh reveres Bo is irrelevant, as is Bo’s record. Bo’s era was very different than today. Harbaugh is attempting to bring Michigan out of its modern historic low, to become the elite. That’s not easy considering a) where Michigan was recently; and b) where Michigan has been historically.
I think many disgruntled fans will do to remember that if you strip away all the old history, the tradition, the stadium, etc., Michigan is not and has only ever occasionally been elite. Stop acting like we were anything but a quality team, which, every few seasons, produced a contender. Those seasons, even under Bo, Mo and Carr, were bracketed by pretty good seasons, but nothing special.
Winning an NC is hard, especially when you’ve got to go through OSU to do it. Our biggest rival is elite, and has been for a very long time, and most importantly, was while Michigan was floundering. Why is that so hard to accept? It’s the reality of the task that Harbaugh took on. How long will it take?Nobody knows, but we’re back winning at a rate that has us firmly in the top 85% of the P5. Was Michigan — but for a few seasons — ever really better than that?
To me, everything (on every team) comes down to the Offensive Line. I know many in here refused to look back for answers to what’s going on now and discount any explanation that deals with RR or Hoke. But, it’s yet been 2 full recruiting and developmental cycles since RR recruited ZERO OLineman. Two cycles is 10 years, especially for OL, during that time Michigan’s pipeline TOTALLY BROKE DOWN. At the same time, MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Alabama, Clemson etc. went cruising on like OL machines.
On can play the “should or shouldn’t” game all they want. It is what it is. Michigan broke it, and Michigan is going to have to fix it. You fix it by recruiting at a high level and developing those 5 guys as a UNIT. More than any other position OL is a unit. Look at Alabama’s OL recruiting and development over this years. Entire units go from Fr-RS Sr TOGETHER! Obviously, there are holes left by injury, NFL, etc. But Michigan’s OL recruiting and developmental history looks like SWSS CHEESE with holes and “also rans” everywhere.
Until this is fixed, Michigan won’t be elite. People can whine and complain about how Harbaugh should have done something else, or fired someone, or hired someone. But, all that matters is what is and the 2018 OL, as improved as it was, remained a liability. Add to that a lack of elite RB’s, and new QB and I think we got a lot out of the offense. It’s not where we want to be, nor is it where we’ll end up. It’s where we’re at right now because we’re still trying to get the Michigan OL machine running on all cylinders.
Remeber the idea that it takes as long to solve a problem as it took to create it. Michigan’s OL issues didn’t appear overnight. We’ve had several good classes and the 2018 OL class may be the best of them all under Harbaugh. Those guys are going to lead program forward and determine if it will be able to ascend to elite status.
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:25 PM ^
Great take. Rational, and well thought out. This deserves more up-votes.
January 3rd, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
First, to say what can and will happen, is a fools errand. The fact that Harbaugh reveres Bo is irrelevant, as is Bo’s record. Bo’s era was very different than today. Harbaugh is attempting to bring Michigan out of its modern historic low, to become the elite. That’s not easy considering a) where Michigan was recently; and b) where Michigan has been historically.
Excellent point, I agree. The comparisons to Bo are more of a thought exercise and interesting because it's more accurate than most thought it would have been when JH was hired. But, nevertheless, this is a narrative I would expect to be peddled by ESPN, not the thoughtful and even-minded folks here (just to be clear, this is snark).
I think many disgruntled fans will do to remember that if you strip away all the old history, the tradition, the stadium, etc., Michigan is not and has only ever occasionally been elite. Stop acting like we were anything but a quality team, which, every few seasons, produced a contender. Those seasons, even under Bo, Mo and Carr, were bracketed by pretty good seasons, but nothing special.
Winning an NC is hard, especially when you’ve got to go through OSU to do it. Our biggest rival is elite, and has been for a very long time, and most importantly, was while Michigan was floundering. Why is that so hard to accept? It’s the reality of the task that Harbaugh took on. How long will it take? Nobody knows, but we’re back winning at a rate that has us firmly in the top 85% of the P5. Was Michigan — but for a few seasons — ever really better than that?
This is a great point and one that the fanbase (myself included) finds hard to accept. But, I think the age of the rational and thoughtful sports fan is slowly dissipating this. IOW, I think intelligent UM fans are starting to come to terms with the fact that reaching the Clemson, Bama, OSU level of program is incredibly hard and requires sacrifices some are not comfortable making.
However, with the amount of resources poured into the program, I think people rightfully want a perennial contender. The program (through its relatively ethical approach) and the school (due to weather, recruiting territory, and academic rigor), make it hard to accomplish this, but not impossible. UM and JH specifically talk about being the best while having the highest standards. It's the challenge the program and more generally, the school try to espouse. This may be a bit to rah-rah homerist, but I digress.
To me, everything (on every team) comes down to the Offensive Line. I know many in here refused to look back for answers to what’s going on now and discount any explanation that deals with RR or Hoke. But, it’s yet been 2 full recruiting and developmental cycles since RR recruited ZERO OLineman. Two cycles is 10 years, especially for OL, during that time Michigan’s pipeline TOTALLY BROKE DOWN. At the same time, MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Alabama, Clemson etc. went cruising on like OL machines.
This is one point I disagree with. I think we are past talking about RR from a recruiting standpoint, unless you want to contextualize the program's level--i.e. the program was in rough shape from 2008-2014 with one lucky blip in 2011. There's a post somewhere on this site that goes through the specifics of OL recruiting, but I think going back farther than the 2015 class (Newsome, Runyan, Ulizio) is a mistake. Newsome's loss was brutal, but one injury should not have such a dramatic effect. Nevertheless, in JH's first bona fide class (2016), he snagged Onwenu and Bredeson and those guys are obviously starters performing reasonably well. Same can be said for Ruiz the following year. Any shortcomings on the OL at this point fall at the feet of recruiting, coaching, and really a combination of both. We will likely feel some pain due to the weak 2018 class at some point, but if we are going to be consistent with our assessment, that shouldn't happen until the 2020 season at the earliest, and more importantly, should be able to recover with stronger 2019 and subsequent classes.
January 3rd, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^
Newsome's loss was brutal, but one injury should not have such a dramatic effect.
There's that word, "should" again. Only what IS matters, not what SHOULD be or COULD be.
You're 100% correct; it SHOULD NOT have that effect, but it did have that dramatic of an effect because, to my point, of a deep, long term problem going back a couple of recruiting and developmental cycles.
Any shortcomings on the OL at this point fall at the feet of recruiting, coaching, and really a combination of both.
Again, I agree. I just think the timeline has to go back two full cycles or 10 years, and we're not there yet. Don't misconstrue this me absolving Harbaugh from responsibility for the current situation, it's his ship to said and Pipeline to manage. To be honest, the fact that he's been able to lead Michigan to 38 wins in 4 seasons with the level of OL play we've seen should be more of a story. This, to me, goes back to the collective dissonance Michigan fans display so acutely.
I wish Coach could be really candid with us and just tell us what he really was and is dealing with personnel wise. Unfortunately, or fortunately, he won't (obviously) because that would require him to throw the players under the bus. I'd bet afterward people would have a very different opinion of 38 wins. I try to look at it that way. Things were less and ideal at Michigan, and he's working to make them ideal. It's not easy, and takes time, especially at a school like Michigan.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
Every time someone starts blaming "the scheme" it is because usually the offensive line isnt good enough. Funny how great the scheme was in some games until the offensive line met its match (or greater than its match) in ND, OSU, FL; then "the scheme" isn't good enough. The scheme will be improved next year for sure as the offensive line gets better. You need to look no further than the school to the northwest to see people complaining about "the scheme" when their offensive line is terrible.
January 3rd, 2019 at 8:02 AM ^
With good enough players - scheme becomes irrelevant. You can run anything an win all the time.
Problem is - you will NEVER have enough players against elite teams for that to be the case. That is where scheme matters.
You will ALWAYS have some games where the offensive line meets its match (or greater than its match) - so you'd better be able to scheme around it.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
2) JH and staff are great teachers of fundamentals. Marginal players often become Solid players. Huge gaffes are much less common than they were under Brady Hoke. What disturbs me is that Good or Very Good players do not become Great players. Great players do not become Superstars (although I appreciate him, I consider Rashan Gary a disappointment). We desperately need people to make big plays. I wonder if the emphasis on "doing your job" is taken to such an extent that people in this system are just not free enough to make big plays?
Good point, with the data points of Gary, Jabrill, and Peters as top 100 guys who didn't perform up to expectations sticking out. Guys like Chase also show that the program can develop not top 100 guys into premier performers. I'd say David Long performed as well as I expected though as one counter example.
Going forward, it will be interesting to see if this holds for Bredeson, DPJ, Ruiz, Onwenu, and Ambry because those guys look like they're ready to perform at an all conference level or better (all top 100 recruits). There's still time for Luigi, but it's getting late early for him. Unfortunately, lots of top 100 transfers here like Solomon, Singleton, Asiasi, Cole, etc. (can't say if this is more or less than other programs though).
3) The weakness of Wisconsin and MSU this year makes our season look even worse.
I don't agree. 10-2/10-3 is a very good season and while I agree that MSU was down this year, you can only play the teams in front of you. Wisconsin was still a pretty good team (top 25 on S&P) and PSU was good this year too. This also may be a new normal for MSU.
4) We have a good QB and good receivers. Our O Line has improved. At this point, our offensive issues look increasingly schematic. I like how the offense is simpler this year, but we still have too many plays that require multiple things to go right vs a quick hitting offense that uses misdirection to quickly get people the ball in space.
This is the single biggest issue/story going into the offseason. JH and Co. have to figure out a way to get more out of an offense that has 1) good and experienced QBs (plural), 2) experience everywhere but especially at OL and WR, and 3) should have relatively good depth everywhere. RB is a question mark, but a good RB should be enough to get this unit into GREAT territory, which is where they need to be in order to compete with OSU.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:49 PM ^
RB is a question mark, but a good RB should be enough to get this unit into GREAT territory
RB is another issue that I think is really plaguing Michigan football right now. A great OL can make a average RB look elite, and an elite RB into a Heisman candidate. Michigan has had neither, unfortunately. I really respect Higdon, but there were way too many times I saw the OL open up a HUGE lane for him, only to see him slam into their backs, or cut into the defenses waiting arms. I watched in complete AWE at Jonathan Taylor and the Wisconsin OL when we played the Badgers. Holes so big three RB's could run through them, and no matter where Taylor was hit, he'd drag defenders 4-5 yards forward.
Michigan's RB seem to lack vision, power, and elite speed. Hopefully that is about to change, but it's interesting that Michigan has lacked an elite runner since Denard's career ended. One would think that, given the idea that Harbaugh is a run heavy offense, elite OL and RB recruits would be lining up to play for Michigan. Maybe they will be going forward, but Michigan's offense, even the conservative version, is hard to beat with a great OL and a great RB. With an average (at best) OL and slightly above average RB ... 10-3 seems about right.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
Here's my random collection of thoughts since everyone is an expert:
- Jim Harbaugh has been an excellent coach everywhere he's been. San Diego, Stanford, the 49ers. He's won 73% of his games at Michigan. Brady Hoke won 60%. RichRod didn't even make it 4 years. Lloyd Carr and Gary Moeller won 78%. He's not Urban Meyer or Nick Saban, but he's in line with every Michigan coach in the modern era.
- Only 8 programs have won more games than Michigan since Harbaugh was hired. That includes Wisconsin who has the luxury of beating up on the B1G West every year. Alabama, Clemson, OSU, and Oklahoma have been way above everyone else. Georgia has 4 more wins in 3 additional games played. Washington has 1 more win in 2 extra games played. Stanford has 2 more wins in 2 additional games played. This is a Top 10 program that happened to be in a division with one of the best college coaches ever.
- Recruiting has been fine. Ranks according to the 247 composite: #8, #5, #22, #8. Not being in the South means they'll be hard-pressed to come up with a #1 or #2 class.
- Is he immune from criticism? Nope. The time management stuff is mystifying. I know people like to complain about not opening up the offense more, but I'm guessing that's due to lingering pass pro issues. It takes time to run complex route trees that require multiple reads. And, I'm guessing we'd all like to have Shea stay healthy.
I'd give Harbaugh a B right now. Won double digit games in three out of the four years and the fourth year was one where he was on his 2nd/3rd string QB. He's been unlucky in bigger games (see 2015 MSU, 2016 OSU, 2016 Orange Bowl). Time management stuff needs to change. I do think he needs to stabilize the offensive braintrust a bit and turn over complete control to a non-Pep coach.
January 2nd, 2019 at 9:00 PM ^
I agree with what you're saying, but that's not much of an opinion. You just stated facts for the most part, which is good because this board has been completely off the rails lately. And I don't just mean the last 2 weeks or even the last 2 months, more like the last 2 years. It's become too hard to find the good user-generated content. But, that's a post for another day/thread.
The only subjective things you said are 1) this is a top 10 program and 2) you'd give Harbaugh a "B". I'd agree with both of those statements as well, except I'd probably give JH a B+. I'd give an A- for beating OSU and/or winning the B1G, and an A for making the NCG. A+++++ and [insert stan marsh splooge img] for winning the damn thing.
Where this gets slightly dicier IMO is when you consider the ceiling of this program and what should the expectations be. Personally, I don't think the ceiling for this program is much higher than it currently is. In other words, I don't think a coach better than JH is walking through that door ATM. Recruiting in Michigan is too hard and the standards for academics and ethics (relatively speaking, we're not the squeaky clean program some think we are but we are still playing by more rules than most) are too high. Furthermore, some would argue that with JH being a HC with a top 5 salary and a large budget for assistants that the expectation is to be on the level with Bama, Clemson, OSU, OU, etc. but for the same aforementioned reasons, I don't think that's happening without a drastic change to the college football (N.B. not necessarily NCAA) system.
January 3rd, 2019 at 7:36 AM ^
Haha, yeah, I guess I feel like my opinion isn't worth much since I never played or coached football beyond HS. You can tell when a team is really poorly coached and when they just need tweaks.
Your larger point about expectations and better coaches is the most relevant one, I think.
Lastly, the loss to Florida is an emotional one. Brian seemed to hint at it in his column. Their season ended in Columbus. Georgia just had the same thing happen to them. The minute they blew that lead against Alabama, I think the coaches and players were done.
January 3rd, 2019 at 8:06 AM ^
" It takes time to run complex route trees that require multiple reads "
So... Don't.
This isn't the NFL. Complex route trees with multiple reads aren't necessary to get your skill players the ball in space.
If the complexity doesn't increase success - and based on the offenses run by many successful FBS teams it doesn't - it serves no purpose. There are no style points or extra credit for doing it the hard way.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^
RE: Defense
The change up from Plan A cannot be "solve your problems with aggression" anymore. Michigan can out-athlete 3/4 of their yearly schedule. 2/4 of the remaining opponents (Wisconsin and MSU) are good match ups for Michigan in that they don't have space players and running man coverage won't generally result in getting torched to death.
PSU and OSU (as well as any SEC or good ACC team in a bowl game) where Michigan doesn't have the advantage at 3/4 of the positions are problems. We saw what happened when A+ athlete Bush was out against Florida. Not enough speed in the middle to run with SEC speed among Gil and Ross (hard for Ross to replace him in 1 game).
Without A+ DT Hurst all year, there was no interior push which allowed Haskins to carve up the defense all day because he never had to move. Michigan's 2 biggest weaknesses the last 2 years have been their 3rd CB and safeties. When Michigan ran into teams who had the athletes to get after those 2 spots, it was trouble and the change up/adjustment was to run a shoddy zone (when they clearly don't rep it nearly enough - exhibit A being the wide open TD against OSU and the play where Bush got hurt after chasing a crosser he didn't know how to cover), or send more guys at the QB leaving that 3rd CB and safeties in man coverage against crossers (what used to be fades) until they died.
Brown's defenses are very good, don't get me wrong. And he does a good job at adjusting... eventually. But holding a trick play Purdue to 14 yards in the second half because of adjustments cannot be replicated against OSU who can just run past you. Same with the adjustments he's made against teams like Maryland who ran a bunch of tunnel screens. The games all have the same theme: Teams out-scheme Brown for a few drives but once he has the scheme downloaded, he adjusts his BETTER athletes and they eventually suffocate the other team. When the other team has a scheme advantage AND an athlete advantage, Michigan has problems. Michigan will never have 3 David Longs or Leon Halls at CB. Which is why you need a coaching staff capable of having a change up to cover up the 1 or 2 holes in the defense. For years I've been screaming for a 4th CB on passing downs instead of 2 safeties plus the Viper. For years I've been screaming about 3rd and long vacating LBs and giving mobile QBs alleys to run for 1st downs on. The blueprint to beat a Don Brown defense is there. We only have to really worry about it against top 1/4 teams who have the athletes AND the scheme, but those games come 2-3 times per year every year now. Michigan's defense will suffocate 7-9 teams per year no problem. It's the 3-4 others I worry about.
RE: Offense
I just don't understand anymore. I've defended multiple TE sets. I've defended running the ball a bunch. I've even defended the long PA bombs that you can see coming a mile away. But at this point, it's just stupid. Your best athletes are playing WR yet you'd rather run out 2-3 TEs and bury your nose in the ground for 2-3 YPC where each OL HAS to get his block and even then the RB HAS to make a guy miss or have a LB make a bad fit in order to pop off a big run. Games like 2017 Minnesota were a paving in part because of the OL, but also in part because Minnesota's LBs and Safeties SUUUUUCCCKKKKKEEEDDDD. Higdon had caverns to run through because Minnesota's LBs were going to the wrong gap or Hill was getting a 2 for 1 block on a LB and SS. It wasn't schematically anything inspiring, it was just leaning on an inferior opponent until they cracked. Again, that can work against 7 or so teams per year.
The biggest plays this year against the best teams on the schedule when the offense was bogged down and not doing anything. Think about them.
ND: Collins bomb where he just straight up ran past a top level CB (Love).
MSU: A straight go route to DPJ.
OSU: Collins won (I think) 3 jump balls? 2 from Patterson and 1 from Milton. DPJ had like 7 catches and it could have been 8 or 9 had Patterson not short armed a throw or 2. Gentry on a seem route and that dropped TD was a fake QB arc keeper that was awesome. In both cases, Gentry was running a fucking route, not blocking.
The best drive Michigan had against Florida? They just threw up 1 on 1 balls to Collins and DPJ and they came down with 3 of them. Then they stopped running those all together. The INT wasn't even a bad play. Patterson had Collins 1 on 1 but the Safety peeled off DPJ (who ended up in a better situation that Patterson didn't see) to get that jump ball that was otherwise Collins' for the taking.
Point being, Michigan will put its top athletes on the field, use them, and then once 1 thing goes wrong it's immediately back to 2 TEs and run up the middle for 2 yards. The staff is all too willing to scrap the 3 WR west coast offense in favor of 2 TE sets at the first sign of failure. Yet, when the 2 TE sets fail, they don't go away from it.
I used to think Harbaugh and Co had to deal with guys like Whalen and Baldwin being their top WRs at Stanford because it was a rebuilding job and even now Shaw can't recruit great WRs. But now I'm pretty sure they couldn't recruit great WRs because great WRs don't want to go into that kind of offense. The idea that 11 guys have to win each snap in order to be successful is outdated and lazy. Lazy because Clemson can't recruit or develop an OL to save their lives. But it doesn't matter because they send Lawrence back to throw bombs and seems to their athletes who are better than everyone else in the ACC. The Patriots don't require that Cordarelle Patterson win each snap for them to be successful. Shit, 3/4 of their WR corps lose most of their snaps but Brady and McDaniels find the mismatches with their A+ athletes and gets them the ball.
It's time for Evans to be Darren Sproles. Not Frank Gore.
It's time for DPJ, Black, and Collins to get 3/4 of the snaps instead of McKeon.
I'm not saying go full on air raid. I'm saying put your athletes in the best position to succeed and then let them be the A+ athletes you recruited.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:01 PM ^
Clemson can't recruit or develop an OL to save their lives
This is completely false. I posted a quote from Tony Elliot, Clemson's Co-OC, who said, " we didn't become a championship team until our OL improved ... and THIS OL is the best we've had."
I think the staff goes to 3 TE sets because it feels like it needs to to run effectively, and they don't want to tip their hand with formation, so they throw out of that set often. Everything has a cause. If we're seeing something it's for a reason, and likely that reason is NOT stubborness or NOT wanting to get the ball to the WR's.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:17 PM ^
Clemson has 3 OL in the NFL right now. 2 OGs and a OC. That's it. Their NFL players are mostly WRs, DL, and DBs.
They currently have 1 4* OG in the 2019 recruiting class and any others are 3*
2017 they got 1 5* OT and anything else was 3*
2016 they had 1 4* OT and anything else was lower
Their OL recruiting and NFL production are terrible for being in the NC game 2 out of the last 3 years. They have been successful with OLs significantly less impressive than Michigan's because of scheme.
Michigan goes with 3 TE sets with 1 TE who can't block (Gentry) and throw out of it to a guy who can't catch (McKeon and occasionally Gentry). If they need 3 TEs to run the ball, then they're screwed because that puts 9-10 guys in the box and every single one has to be blocked in order for anything more than 4-5 yards to happen unless the RB breaks 3 tackles. Again, it's the "11 guys need to win this play" thing.
Moreover, Gentry is a match up problem because of his height mixed with speed right? Collins is 6'5" and won almost every jump ball thrown at his this year. DPJ is the best athlete on the football team. Black... eh he was hurt but was supposed to be the best of them all. Hell, Perry was THE guy who could get open and he saw about 1 pass/game for fuck all reasons. Those guys are match up problems just as much, if not more than Gentry.
I get that you can't just drop back and throw the ball 25 yards downfield every play for 60 plays. But there is no reason to run on 1st down for 2 yards, then on 2nd down for 1 yard, and then run a 3rd down play with 2 TEs over and over again all the while you know you have 2 thoroughbreds sitting there with 1 drop between the 2 of them covered by guys too short or too slow to stop them more than 1/2 the time.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:43 PM ^
But there is no reason to run on 1st down for 2 yards, then on 2nd down for 1 yard, and then run a 3rd down play with 2 TEs over and over again all the while you know you have 2 thoroughbreds sitting there with 1 drop between the 2 of them covered by guys too short or too slow to stop them more than 1/2 the time.
I am sorry dude, but this is hyperbole. I am not saying that this didn't happen from time to time, but it happens to EVERY program from time to time. There were number games/drives in which Michigan came out throwing. Sometimes they went well, sometimes they didn't. Again, do you actually believe that Harbaugh & Co. are TRYING to keep the ball away from those guys? Go back and watch the first three drives of the Northwestern game. What happened?
Here's what I see. I see fans so obsessively focused on the "Harbaugh offense" memes that they discount what is actually happening. If, for example, a 1st down pass is incomplete, there is no complaining. They threw the ball. But, if a 1st down run is stuffed, everyone goes ape shit, screaming, "throw the ball!" Further, when a pass is called and it's never thrown because the QB scrambles or throws it away because of pressure, fans look at this as a positive as they called a pass. Coaches, unlike fans, have to call the next play. Fans get to bitch about anything that isn't successful with no responsibility to come up with what comes next.
I am not saying that the offense isn't frustrating. But to me what is frustrating is how many times RB's missed holes, and how many times Shea missed open WR's.
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:07 PM ^
Yes, it is hyperbole. It's also closer to reality than the opposite. Michigan wasn't a 50-50 run-pass team. They were 60-40 and would probably prefer 65-35 if they could. But it's not even just the breakdown of run versus pass. It's the breakdown of 1st down runs with Gentry blocking. Or 1st down runs with Evans running a dive or Wilson a stretch outside zone.
Evans is a space back akin to Sproles. NOT Peyton Hillis. Wilson, god love him, is a walk on, not some burner who excels on the edge. When Evans was split out wide as a WR what does he do? Breaks Chris Frey's ankles. What does he do running against anyone not named 2017 Minnesota/Purdue (who both sucked)? He gets flattened for 2 yards. 2017 OSU was a perfect example of how Michigan should be able to get their athletes in space. They've done it before and I know it's not that easy, but jesus that was a beautifully called game the likes of which we saw... Once this year? Maybe.
And I never said they are actively trying to keep the ball from the WRs. That's an idiotic strawman. Everyone talks about match ups from Belichick to your local HS coach. When you can't run inside and you have the athletes they do, use them because they are match up problems. When you can pound inside for 5+ YPC go ahead and do that.
Hell, if Gentry is THAT match up the coaches want, then line him up and pick on a LB like they did against OSU. If he's the athlete you want to use, then use him. Don't put him inline blocking for 3/4 of the snaps he sees per game.
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:20 PM ^
This have been a good discussion, and I've enjoyed it. Rather than trying to get the last word in, let me just put forth a basic premise that I adhere to when it comes to football schemes:
If there is something you're seeing in the scheme, or something that you think you should see but aren't, there is a specific personnel reason for its presence or absence, not stupidity, stubbornness, or some sort of malfeasance. I suppose this falls under the idea of "trust the coaches" but I find it impossible to be believe the guys whose careers are football and who see the players skill sets in detail, are going to miss things that fan see so clearly. I am not saying they're infallible. All I am saying is that if you see things that you think are obvious and should have been in (or out) the scheme, there is almost certainly a personnel limitation behind that decision.
January 3rd, 2019 at 8:17 AM ^
" If there is something you're seeing in the scheme, or something that you think you should see but aren't, there is a specific personnel reason for its presence or absence, not stupidity, stubbornness, or some sort of malfeasance. "
There is lots and lots and lots and lots of data - regarding going for it on 4th downs, onside kicks, time management, etc., etc. - that coaches are insanely risk averse.
There really are a lot of things common, even to high end coaches, that happen because of "tradition" or "stubbornness" because there is a massive aversion to the risk of doing the unusual.
January 3rd, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
if you see things that you think are obvious and should have been in (or out) the scheme, there is almost certainly a personnel limitation behind that decision.
I don't really know how to respond to this with something than what I've already said. Putting in Chris Evans to run a HB dive on 3rd and 2 is NOT a personnel limitation that exists because Michigan HAS to run Chris Evans on 3rd and 2. That is a self imposed, artificial limitation that is dragging down the ceiling of the offense.
Putting in Tru Wilson and running an outside stretch zone from the shotgun is again, not a personnel limitation that is organic and a result of injury or poor recruiting. The coaches are actively choosing to put in guys like Wilson to run that play, or McCurry in the OSU game (that, admittedly was a one off but still absolutely idiotic).
And if it's a "they're trying to break tendency/scheme" thing, then it should be more of a 1 off and not a consistent theme we see week in and week out. Moreover, if you're trying to break tendency, you generally don't do that by taking a guy who can't do X, and make him try X. You break tendency with Wilson by running a screen since he usually pass blocks. Or you break tendency by running out Bell and Martin and throwing instead of running (those 2 on the field were the biggest run tips of all run tips). OR even better, put out Martin and Bell and run a FAKE jet sweep instead of an actual jet sweep because that is the most obvious thing on the planet and constantly resulted in TFL.
I have my issues with the defense specifically when it comes to scheme, but not when it comes to personnel deployment (almost no complaints). Brown's defense puts his athletes on the field and basically says "this is what we're going to do, my athletes are better than yours, try and beat us." Sometimes, Brown's athletes aren't as good as the opponents (OSU's 3rd WR vs. Watson - Barkley vs. everyone - Gesicki vs. Metellus) but for the most part a man coverage defense is predicated on the athletes Michigan has being better than the offense they face. I'd like to see Michigan's offense do that same. You recruited 4 top WRs in the same class, a spread QB who came from throwing the ball 35 times/game, and space players like Evans along with the incoming crop like Sainstrill and Jackson. Use them. Use them more than you do McKeon and Eubanks.
Edit: This is similar to the Durkin vs. Brown discussion from a few years ago. Durkin ran out 2 or 3 ILBs and when they ran into better athletes (OSU) they completely collapsed (along with Glasgow being hurt). Brown came in, went and got better athletes, and let his dudes run. Harbaugh has recruited dudes. DPJ, Collins, and Black should be seeing 2:1 snap counts over guys like McKeon and Eubanks because on aggregate they're a bigger match up problem for defenses.
January 3rd, 2019 at 8:13 AM ^
" Again, do you actually believe that Harbaugh & Co. are TRYING to keep the ball away from those guys? "
No.
I believe they plan on opening the offense up a little (but are still overly obsessed with body blows)... and then turtle as soon as things start to go a little sideways.
It's a combination of being WAY too in love with archaic manball, and reverting to it even more when the lizard brain kicks in. It's basically the polar opposite of Don Brown's "solve your problems with aggression".
January 3rd, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
I believe they plan on opening the offense up a little (but are still overly obsessed with body blows)... and then turtle as soon as things start to go a little sideways.
Exactly this. They are more than willing to scrap throws to Collins and DPJ on the first sign of trouble (the INT against Florida) but are content to run out 3 TEs and run for 2-3 YPC and then throw on 3rd and long (which they're terrible at) and then punt.
And again, what's infuriating is we've seen them call great games in the past or take a punch and say "screw it, go for the throat". 2017 OSU was a wonderfully called game. 2017 Florida they didn't shy away from Speight throwing after the first INT (and then he threw another one). They kept taking shots. They kept running out of different formations with different backs but most importantly, they ran plays the backs could execute with their skill sets.
And yes, an INT is significantly worse than run for 2, run for 1, incomplete pass, punt. But the upside of a completed 25 yard pass is significantly greater and worth the perceived risk far more often than the coaching staff is willing to take. Patterson was super risk adverse this year to a point where it could have actually hampered Michigan's ability to win games. Early against Wisconsin when the game was still in doubt he didn't make 2 or 3 throws that could have busted the game wide open. MSU he didn't make 2 throws that could have effectively ended the game in the 1st half (that out to DPJ for a TD he held onto specifically). Falling back on the defense and run game is ok but there comes a time where that damn breaks and if you don't have the ability to go to a gameplan that can keep you in those type games then you'll never win the big ones or get to the playoff.
January 2nd, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^
2019 will be a very telling season for Harbaugh's tenure at Michigan.
He will have all the components to run a very high-powered and potent offense, but to totally maximize it he will have to have a change up his approach to game planning and play calling.
If he wants to continue landing the DPJ's and Nico Collins' of the world, he will need to now prove that he knows how to showcase their talent.
He's lost a lot of his cache I think nationally (from a recruiting perspective, not NFL beat writers apparently) due to these past two seasons, and now it's time to start seeing the results on the field.
He is going to have to do something to rejuvenate his roster after two demoralizing losses (my meaningless recommendation would be a firm handshake to Pep Hamilton) or I do think we run the risk of seeing more of our playmakers look to transfer out due to morale.
I think we need to feature DPJ/Nico/Black on the field together as the foundation of the 2019 offense. All three of those guys are way to good to only get 3 or 4 looks a game.
They need to be putting up prolific passing numbers if they are going to continue recruiting playmakers of that calibur.
One thing seems for certain, the polish has officially rubbed off on Harbaugh. From this point on, I think the fan base needs to start seeing the results of his program - that means winning games in November and playing in Indianapolis.
If that does not start happening then his program starts losing momentum and relevance which is not good. Hope we can finally get over that hump in 2019!
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:11 PM ^
You hit the nail on the head.
If you were a top 10 WR or QB.....would you go to Michigan?
By not fully utilizing the very high quality guys that we have now, we jeapordize our ability to get players like this in the future.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:29 PM ^
Just stop. Please.
If the "very high quality guys" aren't being "fully utilized" there are only two reasons why, broadly speaking.
It's either:
1) they can't (or don't believe they can)
or
2) they won't
Do you REALLY think that Harbaugh & Co. are deciding AGAINST trying to get the ball to DPJ, Nico, or Tarik? Wouldn't it be more logical to think that they're trying to, but for perhaps a variety of reasons, they cannot as often as they want?
I've said this before, but I saw A LOT of attempts to get them the ball, but a lot of them failed and many of those failures were based upon Shea being flushed, and his unwillingness to "step up" into the pocket.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:50 PM ^
Please.
We have our TEs out there most of the time. The combo of Collins, DPJ and Black presents a serious problem to any defensive coordinator. Mix in Oliver Martin when you want to give one of those guys a rest. Using them, we might be able to get down to merely 7 or 8 guys in the box.
Instead of designing the scheme around the strength of the offense (the WR position), we throw balls to TEs. Because we WANT the strength of the team to be the TE position. This also makes it easier for teams to stack the box. And our TEs are not amazing run blockers.
Having said that......yes Shea does have happy feet, is cautious (to his credit in many cases), does not step up, and still struggles to go through progressions.
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:40 PM ^
Why do you think we have TE's on the field all the time? I think it's pretty simple. Michigan's OL isn't strong enough to run block without them, or at least, that is what the coaching staff thinks (which is all that really matters). If you MUST have your extra blockers in on running plays, you sort of have to put them on the field so that you don't tip your schematic hand, Right?
If you brought in your 2-3 TE's ONLY on running plays, and your WR's ONLY on passing plays, it wouldn't take long for the opposing DC to be in your huddle. I think the reason that it appears that the TE is favored over the WR is because the OL still needs help. That's what is so impressive about the OU OL, they run the ball with only 5 and this allows the outside to be so open. It's essentially to mirror image of the defense: if you can get to the QB just rushing 4, you don't need to blitz as often and expose your back end.
I just find the idea that Harbaugh & Co. would actually try to limit the WR's completely asinine. Everything we see is the coaches trying to scheme around weaknesses, not being stubborn or some nebulous idea of favoring one group over another. Harbaugh & Co. want to score, but have the responsibility of not letting the opposition exploit their weaknesses.
January 2nd, 2019 at 9:12 PM ^
I agree with the premise that the coaches generally know what they're doing and they're doing things (particularly things than aggravate us couch coaches) for reasons.
But to address your argument specifically, this is what the term 'pass to setup the run' means. If your team's strengths lie on the outside and at QB, you make that your primary offense and then the defense adjusts by taking guys out of the box. UM could then trot out 11 personnel and only have to win fewer matchups to run effectively.
One thing that stands out to me was the narrative during the winning streak that many of our slow starts eventually paid dividends once the defense wore down later in the game. If this is true (I'm far too lazy at this time of night to dig up data but assume for the moment), I think that speaks to the exact frustration we're talking about in this thread--that a lot of our schemes (both O and D) are predicated on having the more talented 'Joes'. It works well enough for 3/4 of our matchups, but this team needs to rep some alternative schemes throughout the season to be ready for more difficult matchups.
January 2nd, 2019 at 10:26 PM ^
Great discussion and an awesome read.
But, with opposing players and many others saying they knew pretty much what Michigan was going to run, my opinion is that teams are in our huddle already.
January 2nd, 2019 at 10:38 PM ^
It is a philosophical choice that Harbaugh makes. He can put a TE in the box and block a Linebacker / Safety in the box or he can just put a WR outside the box and drag the guy covering him outside the box with him.
I do get JH's thinking. If your TEs are good blockers, then you can try to create extra gaps that the defense must account for in the run game. They can also chip or double team Defensive Ends that your Tackles might have a hard time blocking. By creating more gaps, you also reduce the depth of the defense and increase the chances for a big play. You get more and better angles for your blockers. You also increase the chance that the defense will keep linebackers in the game instead of going to a nickel or a dime defense. Theoretically, this helps your passing game.
But it is all predicated on the TEs being good blockers. Our TE's are not good blockers.
There is also the thinking that big TEs can overmatch smaller linebackers / safeties in pass coverage. Catch high balls and box out defenders with their bigger bodies.
Our TEs actually CAN do this. But do they do it significantly better than the WRs who are also generally big bodied and are faster with better hands?
With all of this......I would rather run 10 personnel and keep the 4 wide receivers wider so that they drag people out of the box. The RB can certainly help in pass protection (just like a TE) if that is an issue. If pass pro is really bad, we can go to 11 personnel. I don't think most college QBs can even see 5 all receivers in a pattern so I like 10 and 11 packages where one or both guys protect the QB.
We can certainly play with TEs in many instances (both run and pass) for all the reasons that I mention above. But I am arguing against such a heavy use of TEs when our TEs are not good blockers. Seeing us run so many 12 or 22 packages is just creating a mass of humanity in the middle of the field and some of those humans don't block well.
3 or 4 good WRs playing outside the box will drag defenders outside the box opening the run game. That in combination with a good pass catching running back (Chris Evans) will cause defenses to play Nickel and Dime and ironically open the run game even more for us. If Chris Evans could become a good pass blocker it would add another dimension and we could have a very solid offense.
January 3rd, 2019 at 12:53 AM ^
Very well said!
From my vantage point Michigan’s offense trended up overall — most significantly because of QB play — but neither the run game nor the pass game was prolific or dominant to really open up the other. As a result, teams didn’t seem to have to make big adjustments to makes stops. ND, OSU and UF seemed to be able to bottle up the run and get pressure on Shea without having to over commit. Unfortunately, when teams did over commit to the stop the run, Shea left some big plays out on the field. His best throw all year was to DPJ vs MSU.
That throw, more than any other, was how Michigan’s offense was supposed to look. MSU hell bent on stopping the run, and Harbaugh pulling the rug out from under their feet when he got the 1 on 1 matchup. But, again, how many of those went begging?
I do think we’ll see a more dynamic offense next season, if only by virtue of Shea returning and having better command of the scheme and chemistry with the WR’s. We saw late that he’s really getting in synch with them and he threw a lot more back shoulder and jump balls.
January 3rd, 2019 at 1:33 AM ^
You make excellent points. Thanks for the original post and follow up comments.
January 3rd, 2019 at 8:24 AM ^
" Why do you think we have TE's on the field all the time? "
Because that is the type of offense Harbaugh likes - beat you up in a phone booth.
" Michigan's OL isn't strong enough to run block without them "
...yet they are poor blockers, and make run blocking more difficult as opposed to easier on the OL by dragging extra guys into the box.
January 3rd, 2019 at 8:20 AM ^
" Do you REALLY think that Harbaugh & Co. are deciding AGAINST trying to get the ball to DPJ, Nico, or Tarik? "
Schematically? Sort of.
Michigan was about 60-40 run this year. With a bad OL.. A lot of folks think the 60-40 was because of the bad line, and I agree.
If we had a good line - I think Harbaugh would prefer it be more like 80-20.
The line isn't limiting Harbaugh's passing game - it's making him pass more than he wants.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:17 PM ^
Devin Bush became the best linebacker I've ever seen play at Michigan.
January 2nd, 2019 at 5:22 PM ^
One of the best linebackers I have ever seen period. So many times I would say "Oh God, the RB just got the edge."
Then Bush would just run him down.
January 2nd, 2019 at 8:35 PM ^
He deserved and Ohio State victory somewhere in there.
January 2nd, 2019 at 9:06 PM ^
All those edge rushes that Florida got would have been shut down if Bush was in there. And if he had been healthy enough to play, I bet he would have. He's going to be sorely missed...