Question for MGoCoaches: Why doesn't the offense run more 11 personnel?
After reflecting on Saturday's game, and the season as a whole, I got to thinking of next year and how would this offense use it's best players to get them on the field more. My immediate thought was how to keep DPJ, Nico, and Tarik on the field as much as possible. Seems like 11 personnel would solve that.
Looking at the numbers from 2017, 11 personnel was used on average 58% of the time in the NFL, an increase of 20% over the past 10 years. The Rams were highest at 80%.
Glancing at the UFR's and giving the eyeball test, it seems Michigan used 11 personnel roughly 30-40% of the time, and that's a safe assumption on the high end.
I'm wondering if any MGoCoaches out there have opinions of why the offense doesn't use this personnel grouping as much or if they think it would help or hurt the offense moving forward.
December 31st, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
I don't agree with this take, Magnus ..... there are 5 posts before mine that take a similar position. I'll just add my two cents:
Harbaugh is paid to run the M's football program. His self stated goal is to win championships. In the 4 seasons he's been M's HC he's not done that. It is clear to me, anyway, his Michigan football team as he has been running it, is not going to achieve his own self stated goals. Time for him to reassess not continue, as you suggest, to play the kind of football "he knows."
You also state that Michigan didn't hire Harbaugh to be an 11-personnel guy. While that may or may not be true, it's pretty clear to me that Jim Hackett hired Harbaugh to win by reversing a decade of football mediocrity at the hands of Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke. For the most part, he's done that. A four year record of 38-14 and a .731 win percentage is proof of that. But there are these other inconvenient facts: He is 1-10 against top 10 teams and has yet to beat osu.
Harbaugh said himself post game (paraphrased) ........ we had a good season (in 2018) but we didn't win our last two games - big games - and didn't get over the top. We'll have to reload and keep trying to get better, get over the top.
I think Harbaugh is absolutely the right guy to be Michigan's HC for as long as he wants to be but he needs to adapt to today's CFB landscape if he wants to achieve even his own stated goals ..... win championships. He may not be an "11 personnel guy" but he damn well needs to start thinking about being like one even if it is in the context of the kind of offense he does know and is running now. I don't think I need to ex\plain to you or any informed readers here what that is.
Coaches can change. Harbaugh needs to change. He's an NFL guy, he knows damn well great coaches in the NFL need to evolve and the one's that don't fall by the wayside. That is absolutely true in CFB too..... and, after four complete season, he, along with M football are trending to a falling by the wayside pathway. He can reverse that trend. He can change from his almost exclusive use of 22, 23, 24 personnel plays and add in 11 personnel plays or, hell, even 10, 01, 02, or 00 personnel plays.
These are spread concept formations with various plays being run out of them. The two conceptual approaches being run out of 11 v. 22 personnel formations are not mutually exclusive. They can be blends and as far as I can tell, every NFL team is blending power concept offences with spread concept offenses. You can still run power with your QB out of a 00 personnel formation (5 wide) or your RB out of 01 personnel formations (4 wide). Mullen did exactly that - multiple times with Franks, the second leading Rusher behind Perine, who had 74 yards rushing on 14 attempts. Two of those were QB runs right into an empty middle of the field vacated by M defenders spread out to account for those 5 receivers. Lamical Perine and Jordan Scarlett had their share of middle power runs out of 01 and 02 formations.
I see only two issues with my take. (1) Practice time. It may be that a blending of these two concepts isn't as easy as 1-2-3. I don't know. I'm not a coach and I'm not inside Schembechler Hall. (2) The OL was not good in 2018 and I don't care what kinds of concepts you want to run, without good OL play you can't do either. Moreover, a blend of offensive concepts is going to take a blend of OL techniques. Practice time could be a factor again. So, I can see Jim's dilemma but he's a very smart guy. There's a balance and I think he needs a fresh mind with experience in running spread concpets and coaching them to help him find it. That guy would be a compliment to Ed Warriner who I think is completely capable of coaching blocking techniques for spread concept plays.
Jim Harbaugh can't be satisfied with who he is being defined as - that 22 personnel guy and expect to win championships. He has to evolve and the OP asks exactly the right question. Why, isn't he incorporating more 11 personnel concepts? Good question.
December 31st, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
Hey Magnus was John Beilein hired to be a defense guy?
December 31st, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
This is not fun to read.
December 31st, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
December 31st, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
what two minute end of half were you watching?
December 31st, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
Harbaugh needs more tiger blood. That was a five minute drill with 2:30 to go.
December 31st, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
JH is not an offensive genius. If he does not delegate in 2019, the offense will not change.
Collins, DPJ, and Black would be stars in other offenses. If they do not decide to go pro after next season and they are still catching 20-30 balls, I'd advise them to look around.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^
I am wondering why any of Black, Collins or DPJ would transfer.
DPJ and Collins have shown enough already to warrant high draft status. They are functioning well within an offense that blows chunks and doesn't utilize their talents enough, and they have size, speed, and hands that will ensure success in the NFL. They're both gone after this year anyway.
Black would then be a feature back (for what that's worth) the following year, unless he shows his talents next year and leaves as well.
I just don't see a transfer when all three are one season away from being filthy rich.
As a matter of fact, staying at Michigan would be better for all three for the simple reason they aren't used that much! Less chance of injury or being worn out by their college experience.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
I mean, sure, playing in this offense is better than sitting out a season, but Black could be putting up 1000+ yards and competing for the Bilitnekof on a lot of other teams, especially air raid teams that toss it around 40+ times a game.
Each one of them is definitely worse off, individually, for playing in this offense and the transfer sit-out rule is probably the only thing preventing one or more from moving on. That's literally your argument: that sticking around for one more year until draft eligible is the only reason to stay, and you're correct about that.
That's probably a big reason no highly or even moderately touted WRs committed in 2017 or 2018. All an opposing coach had to do was point to how those three are being under-utilized and it's game over.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^
Our offense needs to become more dynamic, I agree with this narrative. However, I think the fanbase as a whole has kind of forgotten how terrible our OT situation was/is which necesarilly generated a lot of the 2/3 route plays with max protect schemes that depended so much on 1v1 victories rather than multiple route combinations/downfield targets, pick plays etc.. A lot of this was masked by max protect concepts with an inline TE who is in there to help the tackles and a RB who is solely there for pass protection. In a certain sense our tackles have prevented our offense from becoming more dynamic. If our tackles get better our offense gets better, things will open up.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
But this is bad, outdated assumption. You don't need max protect formations. One could argue (and the data probably shows) that spreading it out, getting defenders out of the box and in coverage and then having a quick passing game is more effective than bunching your formations and inviting the entire D to tee off.
Look at OSU. Their OTs weren't good most of the year. None of them are all that talented. So they ran a bunch of underneath crossing routes and quick passes and had a top 3 offense in the country.
Look at any air raid team in the last five years that had top 10 offenses without a single NFL o lineman.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
Steve Sarkisian is available. Past issues aside, he would be a good OC
December 31st, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
I’ve been the biggest supporter of Harbaugh and what’s he’s trying to install at Michigan. BUT every man has his breaking point and right now I can’t figure out why the hell he keeps being too loyal to his players who start. JOK over Peters, Gil over Ross, Kemp over Solomon, mckeon over Eubanks, Watson over Ambry, the list can go on and on. I feel like it’s Carr all over again, I’m too young to know about Bo’s time but I hear it was the same damn thing.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
Bo's first six years saw Michigan go 58-8-1. This after taking over a very moribund program that was mucking about just like Harbaugh has done.
Yes, Bo lost big game after big game, but he was OH SO CLOSE to winning NC's 5 of his first six years. In fact, the Big 10's archaic "One team to a bowl game only" probably cost Bo a chance to win an NC by playing in the Orange, Sugar or Cotton even after the losses and tie to OSU.
Not nearly the same here, where Harbaugh clearly lacks the ability to accomplish anything remotely similar to Bo, especially the 1969 upset of OSU.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
The body blows thing works on inferior teams.
Against good teams - our Rb's are the one taking the body blows, by running into a 1000 lb plus wall of dudes.
Probably why Higdon was pissed after Osu
December 31st, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Woodson used to sleep in team meetings & dog it in practice.
You play the best players & play to win.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
And Woodson almost transferred
December 31st, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Interesting on Gentry wanting QB spot.
I was wondering at the time if he ever got a chance in practice, when we were trotting noodle arm Speight & dancing Jimmy Okorn out there.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
When Speight went down, I half jokingly started advocating for a triple option offense.
It stopped being a joke after 3 games.
No way that Gentry would have been worse than what we put up with. I'd rather hope that Gentry got a shot in practice and blew it, instead of our coaches not even considering it...
December 31st, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
I agree. Unless Gentry has an absolutely awful arm, I fail to see how a 6'8 running QB couldn't have been more effective than O'Korn. At least he would break a tackle or two.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
Urbs woulda had Gentry back in Shotgun falling forward for 3 yards on his way to a conference title.
Harbaugh went air raid in a monsoon. IQ matters in coaching
December 31st, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
The Gentry to Tebow comparison is hard to miss. I don't know if Gentry could have been coached up to throw as well as Tebow, but he's a big bodied dude who can run pretty well. Teams have won national championships with that.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
Lucky for us - Woodson's mom slapped him around & told him to stick it out.
December 31st, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^
My theory is that Tarik getting hurt caused them to go more TE heavy. In the summer the only WR the coaches trusted were DPJ and Tarik. Collins and Martin were unknown, Bell was too raw. Not sure what the deal with Grant perry was, he never got that many touches this year. Anyways, when Tarik went down they felt more comfortable relying on Gentry and McKeon, thus all the 2 TE sets. Unfortunately I think Gentry and McKeon didn't take that next big leap from year 1 to year 2. Everyone thought Gentry could play himself into a 2nd Rd draft pick once he had competent QB play. That didn't really materialize.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
Grant Perry has been a really good slot WR. No reason he shouldn't have been playing more. Also why not split out the TEs more? And then why not spread it out when Black came back? He's been back for a while now. Especially with a full month to prep for the bowl.
This theory has a lot of holes.
December 31st, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^
Grant Perry played so little I'd forgotten he was still on the team until he was named captain for the bowl game. Went from being the leading WR on the team last year (an incredibly low bar...25 catches for 307 yds...but was still the best one), to rarely being used. After he had 5 catches and 48 yds in the first game, he only added another 15 for 99 yds. Outside of the OSU game, I don't think he was injured either. Just...disappeared from the offense.
December 31st, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
This theory is very plausible for the '17 season. It did seem they tried to throw it around a little against UF in the opener. Then Black's foot and Speights neck/back and they really turtled.
But, this year Nico was not an unknown he had played some in '17. And, even if he was at the beginning of the year he certainly wasn't the last 1/3 of the season. Plus, Black has been back over 2 months at this point. With a month of practice they had more than enough time to figure out how to get their 3 best playmakers on the field together.
January 1st, 2019 at 10:47 PM ^
Why is it that all the top schools plays Freshmen and they produce but here at Michigan, they're never ready and needs to redshirt and wait until Jr year to shine? It's time to get these kids ready for action.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
What do you think new OC Steve Sarkisian would run? KIDDING. Mostly.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^
Black was hurt most of the year so that is a start.
A healthy trio of Black, Collins, and DPJ deserves more time together no question.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
What about Oliver? That guy was a total stud recruit with tons of practice hype. He's basically a non-entity while Bell (who seems good) shows up a surprising amount, and a walk on is getting targeted versus OSU.
The use of WRs under Harbaugh/Pep is just incomprehensible.
December 31st, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^
Mentioned this just above this post, but Grant Perry too. He was great last season, and then disappeared from the offense this year. Had a good first game, and then didn't even get 100 yds combined after that. Just odd.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
Steve Sarkisian would be a good hire for OC
January 1st, 2019 at 7:27 PM ^
Don't know if serious. I hope not.
January 1st, 2019 at 10:50 PM ^
Sorry, he would not be a good OC. have u watched Atlanta this year. They offense have took a step back since Shanahan went to San Fran.
December 31st, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
It doesn’t matter with Jim hands in the mix . All about the fb/ TE and 25 formations to run a 2 yard dive play
December 31st, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^
Need a very heavy emphasis on OL recruiting and a damn offensive coordinator. The entire country has weighed in on those two priorities.
December 31st, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
Was the O line guy that transferred good or??
Disagree on Perry - he drops too many. Key 3rd down drop at Osu also. One of the trio wouldn't have dropped that imo. Should have been booted after the Lansing fiasco anyway ...
December 31st, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
OP... great question. Mgostubborn is the only correct answer.
December 31st, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
2019 will be JHs 5th year and Warriner's 2nd. We've brought in many 4 star o-lineman including Bredeson, Onwenu, Ruiz, Mayfield, and Filliaga. The majority of our o-line will be in their 3rd, 4th, or 5th year with the only exception being the other tackle (Mayfield or Steuber). If you take all their 247 receuiting averages that comes out to a .928 which is a 4-star and averaging 3.5 years of experience and no true freshman. How that is not a good pass blocking line is beyond me.
December 31st, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^
Practice only counts for so much. It matters when the lights are on.
December 31st, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^
Through the 12-game regular season:
Michigan led the conference in rushing attempts.
Only Wisconsin and Maryland had fewer pass attempts than Michigan.
Given our personnel, that's nuts.
December 31st, 2018 at 10:22 PM ^
My god
December 31st, 2018 at 8:44 PM ^
I haven’t charted the UF game but through OSU, 11 was the second most used personnel grouping accounting for 34% of all plays. 12 was the most at 40%. Keep in mind they had like 5 healthy scholarship WR to begin the season.
January 2nd, 2019 at 6:40 PM ^
I think you mean that Michigan should run more 10 personnel. 1 Running Back and 0 TEs. No?
I think the strength of our offense is the QB and WRs. Gentry was a bit of a match up problem, but DPJ, Black and Collins are also tall and faster / more athletic with better hands.
I think moving away from TEs would unload the box too. TEs lining up in the box bring a defender into that box. A defender who can shed blocks better than our TEs can block.