The argument for Michigan to stop scheduling tough OOC games

Submitted by Diagonal Blue on November 28th, 2018 at 3:05 PM

Raising this point again: if Michigan had scheduled a MAC team instead of Notre Dame, Michigan would still have an outside shot at making the CFP.

Until the committee changes its ways, don't schedule tough non-conference opponents. The risk of losing is not worth the reward.

— Drew Hallett (@DrewCHallett) November 28, 2018

Mr Miggle

November 28th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^

If Michigan had beaten ND, they'd be in a much better position to make the CFP than if they had beaten a MAC team. 

A stronger non-con schedule cuts both ways. If you schedule to avoid competition, that should count against you. Even if it made it a little more likely we make the playoffs, is that what we want to watch?

I despise all this focus on the playoffs. Stupid suggestions to realign every conference to make playoff selection neater. Changing schedules from games we want to watch to dreck because a team that may not be good enough to get in will increase their chances a little bit. And really, I doubt they're even right. It's just like criticizing a coach for going for two when it doesn't work. Inevitably the commentators point out he'd be better off if he hadn't.

Michigan is a better team for playing ND early. Playing patsies doesn't help your team improve.

Ron Utah

November 28th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^

If making the CFP is the only goal, I agree.

But for me, it's not.  Let's beat Notre Dame and win the B1G.  If we do that, we're almost certainly in the CFP and probably good enough to have a chance to win it.  But just getting there is pretty hollow, and if we can't beat Notre Dame and OSU, we probably can't win the CFP.

'Bama's stumbles are a lousy comparison.  In every game but the small handful of hiccups they have they look like they're on another level.  When we start to play like that every year we'll be winning the B1G or losing it with one loss regardless of our schedule, and find ourselves in the CFP any way.

S5R48S10

November 28th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^

All of these comments are geared toward winning championships and I get why people want to talk about that.

But what about just my Saturday viewing experience?  I don't enjoy watching Michigan beat MAC teams.  The whole reason I sit down to watch a football game is to be taken in by the drama of the event.  I get nothing out of it when the game is a foregone conclusion.  I wish all of the games were filled with bonafide P5 teams.  

S5R48S10

November 28th, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^

I think that if you replace a close loss to ND on the road in week 1 with a win against Troy, it would have absolutely no bearing on UM being excluded from the CFP.  Our blowout loss to OSU would still have us behind OU, OSU, and Georgia.

But if we have three OOC games that are bullshit, a Rutgers game that is bullshit, and probably an additional game like Maryland, Purdue, or Illinois that is bullshit... then damn near half the schedule is bullshit that is not the least bit interesting.  

 

Blarvey

November 28th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^

I really can't stand how part of our fanbase seems to want to avoid rivalry games, tough games, and good coaches in the conference. Why? So Michigan can skate through to the playoff and get demolished against a good team? 

Michigan would be in the playoff if it beat OSU. Simple as that. Quit trying to act like the ND game is what is keeping them out.

Blarvey

November 28th, 2018 at 5:20 PM ^

I didn't miss the point at all. Clemson and Alabama had OoC games against Auburn and Louisville that would have been top-10 games when they were scheduled. If ND was weak this year then everybody would be pointing to a win (or loss) against them would give Michigan no credit but despite the loss Michigan had a clear path to the playoff. They don't deserve to be in because they lost to OSU, regardless of what their OoC schedule looks like. 

If anything, that Michigan lost a close game on the road to ND and stayed at #4 is proof that the CFP takes context into account. If Oklahoma or Washington is undefeated, it's different and then I still don't think Michigan deserves to be in because they didn't go undefeated. 

FlexUM

November 28th, 2018 at 3:52 PM ^

That's not the point. Heck I'd love to see the team play 10 games and each game is against a top 15 team. That's not what college football is. With a 12 game schedule you are going to lose some games (even the awesome Alabama has only gone undefeated twice in the last 20 years. 

You are going to lose...no matter how good you are you are going to lose and it may be to a team you are better than. It doesn't matter if Nick Saban is your coach. So in this age of the playoff it makes sense if you are a big name team in a tough conference to limit the amount of possible losses so you have some wiggle room for a conference loss. 

BillyOcean

November 28th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^

Quit being pussies. If we are a good team we beat ND and OSU or at least one.  We beat a bunch of mediocre teams this year.  

skurnie

November 28th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^

Suggesting we replace Notre Dame with a MAC school is the most laughable shit I've seen since Saturday. Big deal if we beat Ball State by 50 in September and still get pasted on Thanksgiving weekend...

Remember when all of us were mad at Michigan because DB screwed up the ND rivalry? And how happy we all are to have it back on the schedule? 

Catchafire

November 28th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^

If you had presented this argument the day after we lost to ND then I would have agreed; however, Michigan was able to reel off 10 wins in a row which I think was fueled in some part to the ND loss.  We had a really strong team this year and I don't think we should minimize our loss to OSU by blaming a difficult OOC schedule.

We need to beat OSU...  I want the current staff to beat OSU.  That's all.

ESNY

November 28th, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^

I don't think that is the case.  If the season progressed the same way except sub out the ND loss to a win against a directional school, and we would still have little shot at the playoffs.  We wouldn't get in over ND, Clemson, the SEC champion or OSU/OU if they win.  Maybe if this coming weekend is mayhem we would have a better shot being 11-1 vs. 10-2 but the odds of that happening are infinitesimal. Things may have been different if it was 2016 and we lost to OSU due to a bad spot but by getting blown out, being 10-2 vs 11-1 would not have made a difference when both OSU/OU only have one loss and are playing in conf. championship

Tuebor

November 28th, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^

The bigger problem than a P5 non conference opponent is 9 conference games.

 

Two conferences have never missed a CFP, ACC and SEC.  Those two are the conferences that only play 8 games.  B1G, PAC12, and Big XII all play 9 conference games. And what do you know they have all missed the CFP at times.

 

So we really should lobby the B1G to go back to 8 conference games, but until that time I'd say yeah we need to stop scheduling P5 non conference.  Our SOS will be just fine with OSU, PSU, and MSU every year in the east and rotating through Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, and Nebraska from the west.

 

That said, just win the damn division and don't give me this BS about a co-championship.  The division winner plays in Indy.

Tuebor

November 28th, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^

Sure, maybe you can get the SEC and ACC to agree to 9 conferences games one day.  I doubt it though.

 

Until then I'd rather see the B1G go to 8 games.

 

The CFP comittee is lying through their teeth when they say they care about SoS.  We dont need a top 10 SoS, just a top 50 and minimize losses. 

northernmich

November 28th, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^

We are an upper echelon CFB that predicates itself on winning championships. We should do everything we can to get ourselves in the position to win championships. I could care less if we beat a #15 Notre Dame but go 10-2 and don’t win the the B1G or go to the CFP.

jimt1023

November 28th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^

Basically you're saying since we are not good enough to make the playoffs, lets game our way into the playoffs.  If we had done that this year we would end our season with an epic ass kicking by Bama.  I dont see how that's good.  Focus on winning the Big 10 championship, the playoffs will take care of themselves.  

bluepalooza

November 28th, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^

The other side of this, is with a quality loss Michigan was still in CFP. If Michigan had lost on a close last second field goal in Columbus, Michigan would still have some CFP buzz.  Unfortunately, getting beat the way they did, Michigan would be out of playoffs either 11-1 or as they are now, 10-2.  I don't want Michigan to go to playoff and get destroyed like OSU and MSU.  After witnessing what OSU did to Michigan, I would be very concerned playing Clemson or Alabama this year which I think are much better than OSU and better coaching staffs.

northernmich

November 28th, 2018 at 4:02 PM ^

Playing Notre Dame is so completely pointless. Schedule teams like Iowa State, Tennessee, Boston College, Virginia. P5 teams that we know we can beat and give us a decent challenge and maybe they will slide into the top 25 at the end of the year. Focus our energy on MSU, Penn St and Ohio State, those games matter to win the B1G.

BJNavarre

November 28th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^

I would rather play ND than not play them and have a slightly better chance at making the playoffs. Sometimes. 

People actually want to watch Michigan play 4 tomato cans in the OOC season? That's just insane. If that's the case, then the CFP is just a cancer and I don't give a rip who wins it.

Novak-blood

November 28th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^

This will always be a divisive, controversial issue in the fan base. I grew up loving the Notre Dame rivalry, as it was early in the season (if not the outright season opener like this year), and it was generally the first big national spotlight game. I still love the rivalry and attended the game in South Bend this year (and had a fabulous time despite the loss). I know guys who pay a crap ton of dough for really nice season tickets at the Big House. They want to see good matchups, not three MAC teams. I think the scheduling is fine. Notre Dame or similar (Washington in '20-'21), a middle tier traditional program (SMU this year, Army in '19), and a MAC cupcake is nicely balanced OOC scheduling.

The huge problem is the much mentioned off-kilter tilt of odd/even years imbalance. I still have no f'ing clue why we had to play those back-to-back games in East Landfill ('13-'14). So moronic on the part of Delany & Co. And then the salt in the wound of having to resume the Notre Dame rivalry down there after playing there in '14. A condition of resumption should have been a game in Ann Arbor, even if they had to wait a few seasons for schedules to clear. The MSU & OSU imbalance does not appear to be getting fixed before '26, as conference schedules are already out through '25. This is a maddening issue.

Solecismic

November 28th, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^

It's a fair argument given the four-team compromise "playoff" system. The question is whether there's momentum to change the system.

Anyway, Michigan went into Columbus, winner-take-all, and really didn't make a good showing. I'm not sure why we'd want this kind of reward.

It's a terrible system. Let's say Michigan is 11-1 or 12-0 right now, then lost to Northwestern. Is it fair that the conference is penalized by not having a playoff team?

Or let's say the stars align, and Alabama destroys Georgia, Northwestern does its Fitzgeraldy thing to Ohio State, Oklahoma drops one to Texas. Even throw in a Clemson howler for good measure, though it's not necessary.

Now we're trying to compare Michigan to UCF and its schedule strength of tapioca pudding? No thanks. I want a real playoff system where the major conference championship games are part of the round of 16 so that they're not rendered even less useful than they are today.

UNCWolverine

November 28th, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^

Yes, but had we played a MAC team instead of ND I would not have flown back for that game. I would not have hung out with old friends that I never get to see anymore. I would have then spent two days on the lakes with my family. So no, this is a bad idea if you enjoy fun events and good times. I understand the stance, but I absolutely disagree. Big games win or lose is what I live for as a fan. 

scfanblue

November 28th, 2018 at 4:23 PM ^

Michigan still has to go through Ohio State and Urban Meyer regardless who they play. Playing a tough opponent outside the Big Ten which is frankly very weak this year is a bonus for gearing your team up to play OSU and the two playoff opponents. The Notre Dame game this year spoke volumes about how good Michigan really was when placed on the big boy stage. The Irish have been there as the Buckeyes. In both games, Michigan proved that had they faced Bama, Georgia, or Clemson then they would have been embarrassed as they were last Saturday. Like it or not everything depends upon Harbaugh. To become an ELITE coach then he has to shake the nostalgia Bo days/change his leadership style/hire and OC and manage Don Brown which means approving his schemes and back up schemes for each game. BOTH Meyer and Saban change coordinators regularly and they are still the best each and every year. Harbaugh can do the same if he can drop his arrogance. 

jbrandimore

November 28th, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^

No. No. and No.

Dumbest thing ever, and no, we would not be much better off had we beaten a MAC team in terms of the playoffs.

One can make the argument that in fact we would be worse off with a win over a MAC team because people would legitimately ask who the hell we actually beat this year.