Next years secondary
Gotta admit, it’s a little frightening.
I have always assumed that at least one of the corners would be returning next year, however it appears there is a lot of smoke about both leaving early. That leaves us with Thomas, who I don’t know really how well he has played so far, and then who? It would have to be a freshman who is never seen the fuel before. We return Metellus at safety, and then maybe Hawkins replaces Kinnel?
I’m not hitting the panic button necessarily, but I think next year we will find out just how good Dan Brown is.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
I think our safeties will be just as good, if not better next year if Metellus returns. We have some decent depth, and Daxton Hill (watch his highlight film) looks like a guy who can step in and play Day 1.
As far as CBs go, would be nice to bring back one of them. If not, I'll guess Ambry Thomas and Sims are our starters.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^
Some form of:
Ambry Thomas
JKP (nickel)
Josh Metellus
Daxton Hill
Myles Sims
Khaleke Hudson (viper)
November 28th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
I think we all hope Daxton Hill will replace Kinnel
November 28th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Right now Im just hoping we can hold on to Dax Hill
Michigan shit the bed but the other two main schools pursuing him, Bama and OU, are going to be playing in the playoffs most likely. They'll be trying hard as ever to get Hill to decommit from us
November 28th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
If we have a young secondary wouldn't it be smart for Don Brown to switch to zone?
Im not too knowledgeable on schemes but I believe man is harder for less experienced DBs to cover than zone, right? Zone defense is also the reason PSU hung with OSU's offense much better than we did
I wanted us to get away from man coverage anyways. Don Browns current defense is way too susceptible to big plays by the offense
November 28th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^
Just for context, under Don Brown Michigan had the #1 pass defense in 2016 per S&P+, #3 in 2017, and was #1 this season going into the Ohio State game.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
How'd that work out?
November 28th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
Would it have worked out better if we weren't #1? Stupid comment
November 28th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
You seem like a nice guy
November 28th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
Other than last Saturday? It's been fucking awesome. 10/10. Would press man cover again.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
Always seemed like an empty ranking. Notre Dame beat us with the deep ball. OSU beat our ass with the pass. Northwestern was beating us because Thorson was nailing crossing routes 1st half
Our ranking got inflated because our dline dominated weaker teams which made it incredibly hard for opposing QBs to complete passes. When opposing QBs had time to throw they picked apart our secondary
November 28th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^
OSU and ND killed us with the pass in very different ways. If a couple of jump balls go differently at ND, that's a different game, but it's not like guys were running wide open all game the way they were at OSU.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^
(obviously replied in the wrong spot, Milton)
Northwestern got us with slants for about 10 minutes before Brown clamped down on that noise and they had nothing else for 3 quarters. Northwestern had 202 yards of offense for the entire game.
Notre Dame had 302 yards of total offense - that's 150 yards and 10 points less than their season average. After halftime against Michigan? 64 total yards and 3 points.
And outside of the obvious this past weekend, these are the most egregious examples of Brown's faulty defense that make you call for a complete overhaul of our entire scheme?
I'm all set here. Moving on.
November 29th, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^
I'm not sure about it being easier/harder for a young secondary, but it's something to consider.
Our strength next year will shift from CBs to Safeties for the first time in as long as I can remember. It seems like mixing in more zone would be a great way to utilize star safeties and hide what could be a weak spot at CB if we lose all of our top 3 CBs.
That said, we do have a lot of bullets in the chamber at CB and could be just fine.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
Jaylen Kelly Powell??
He has got to fit in there somewhere right?
November 28th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
Guessing that Josh Metellus and Brad Hawkins have the inside track to start at safety. Unless both J'Marick Woods and Jaylen Kelly-Powell leave, they're probably in line to join Dax Hill, if he proves to be as good as expected, to compete in the rotation at safety.
Cornerback would be a major concern if both LaVert Hill and David Long leave, especially considering the lack of experience there beyond Ambry Thomas.
Keith Washington might've left too soon. This season, he tied for the interception lead at West Virginia with three and had a 51-yard "pick-six".
November 28th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
Yeah, Washington had a good year at WVU. He was also playing well at UM when he got passed by both Long and Hill. That he stood out in a Big 12 defense shouldn't be over-hyped. He's a good player, but clearly felt a LOT of competition at Michigan.
(Or maybe he just didn't like something here? I dunno...)
November 28th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
It's going to be young and less experienced next year.
But comparatively pretty talented. Adding Daxton Hill (S) and Jalen Perry (CB) to 2019 class certainly fortifies the secondary. But M probably needs some more high-talent bodies in those spots.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
Harbaugh brought in 147 DB's last year, I'm sure Zordich will get it sorted out. But don't sleep on St Juste, either. If he comes back from two season ending injuries, he's bringing a boatload of athleticism to the table.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
Guess it's a good thing we had like six corners in last years class
November 28th, 2018 at 2:00 PM ^
Who tf is Dan Brown?
November 28th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
The author of The Da Vinci Code. It was a big hit a few years back
November 28th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
Even if Hill and Long both go, we'll be fine.
Thomas, Sims, Green, Hawkins, St-Juste, Gray, JKP, Woods...there are plenty of bullets in that chamber. And Metellus will likely take another step and be an All-B1G 1st-teamer.
I think it will be better than 2017's version and the defense overall will only take a small step back. If our DTs develop, we might keep pace with this year's defense. Need Solomon healthy to pair with a surging Kemp and Dwumfour to come along.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
I mean they took a lot of cover guys last year. I would imagine at least one of those would be ready to see the field.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
They’ll be young and inexperienced. But between Ambry Thomas, BSJ, and Myles Sims I’m sure we will get decent production at the very least. Maybe with Dax Hill coming in JKP will move full time to corner as well. We also have a couple really good corners in the ‘19 class coming in.
So yeah, they’re young and inexperienced, but so were Long and Hill. Until they give me a reason to worry, I suspect they’ll be fine. Expecting a bit of a drop off obviously, but nothing terrifying.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
Ambry, st. Juste, daxton.
Gonna be fast
November 28th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
I think they'll find quality replacements. They will be unproven however. Overall, I'm expecting the defense to take a slight step backward next seaon but still very good.
This is another reason why JH should open up the offense. They may need to score more and more frequently as the offense may be the strength next season.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^
I wouldn’t be surprised if both of the green brothers and Sims transfer. It’s a legit possibility.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
Why Sims? Seems like he'd be in line to play next year.
November 28th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^
You guys have to remember that not all of these kids are going to like it at Michigan. I realize we love this football program but some will always not make it for whatever reason. There will be many transfers
November 28th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
Uhh why?
November 28th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
Didn't we sign like 8 defensive backs the last two years? A handful of them were pretty highly rated. Seems logic to think that a trio of Thomas, Sims and St. Juste could be a pretty good group of corners. And if any of the other million DBs that they recruited bust out then all the better.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
Best guess:
- FS = Hawkins and Hill (rotation)
- SS = Metellus
- CB1 = Thomas
- CB2 = St-Juste and Sims (rotation)
Depth is young but good across the board. Should be fine in the secondary, but it may take a few games to jell under live bullets.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
Hawkins and Dax Hill will probably compete for the other safety position. Then I'd assume Thomas and St-Juste are the top candidates to replace the CBs. Guys vying for depth will be Kelly-Powell and Woods at safety and Sims, Green, Gray, Perry, & Turner at CB. CB is one position that being a freshman if physically ready doesn't seem to have a big learning curve.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
Ambry will step up, and we’ll have to count on some gems emerging from the many young lengthy guys we have recruited. I think Myles Sims could be special.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
Starting safeties will be Metellus and Hill.
Starting corners will be Ambry and either Sims or St Juste(if he can stay healthy)
Nickel will be JKP if he doesn’t transfer due to hardly playing this year
November 28th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^
CB1 : Anyone who returns or Ambry Thomas
CB2: Ambry Thomas or JKP
CB3: JKP or JMarick Woods
SS: Daxton Hill
FS: Josh Metellus
We will be fine. R-E-L-A-X
November 28th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^
Woods is a safety and JKP is a nickel type. I wouldn’t list them as CB3.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
I'm much more concerned with the D-line and overall depth ability to step up. UM signed so many awesome athletes at CB they will be young but it will work out just fine.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:57 PM ^
We may have a "caravan" of guys heading to the league and so the back 7 may be really inexperienced next season. Agree with other posters that we'll probably need the offense to be able to score a lot of points.
November 28th, 2018 at 4:10 PM ^
Don Brown is an excellent coach, regardless of the OSU game. We have recruits ready to take over the secondary, no problems.
November 28th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
Dan brown? Or rob ash?
November 28th, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
Long - 100% departure
Hill - 85 % departure
Shea - 20 - 40 % departure
November 28th, 2018 at 5:24 PM ^
And there you have it.
November 29th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
Sheeite!! I thought Shea was staying for sure. :-(
Thanks for the update though. Even if it could be bad news.
November 28th, 2018 at 4:31 PM ^
So, I went through the Depth Chart By Class and if everyone we think MIGHT leave DOES leave, there will be a few spots that will be question marks.
QB - OUT: Shea / IN: D-Caf
We saw what McCaffrey can do. It will be a slight downgrade, but he can run those read options and RPOs. Needs to build up some arm strength. Hopefully, the collarbone heals.
RB - OUT: Higdon / IN: ?
I can't imagine they'll go with just Evans and Tru as a 1-2 punch next year. Harbaugh likes his Gerhart/Gore/Higdon downhill guys. Seems like a three man competition between Samuels, Turner, and Charbonnet. My hope is that Charbonnet is an impact guy immediately.
SLOT - OUT: Perry / IN: Martin
Martin will be fine. Does McCurry still play or do they try to get one of the true freshmen on the field? I'm still confused as to why McCurry was out there vs OSU.
RT - OUT: JBB / IN: Stueber
We saw what that looked like last week. But, shouldn't be too much of a downgrade if Stueber is better in pass protection.
3TECH - OUT: Marshall / IN: Chris Hinton
Best guess. Kemp and Dwumfour return and will probably rotate as they did this year. Depends on how good Hinton is right off the bat
NOSE - OUT: Mone / IN: Jeter? Mazi Smith?
Solomon HAS to stay healthy next year and have a huge season. The depth here is not great.
ANCHOR - OUT: Gary / IN: Paye (with hopefully either Harrison or Karlaftis taking Paye's snaps)
I actually liked what Paye brought to the table. He'll be okay as a pass rusher (and Gary was never a terror in this regard). If they can land one of the big-time DE recruits, that would be huge.
DE - OUT: Chase / IN: Uche + Hutchinson
Chase will be sorely missed, but Uche is ready to break out and Hutchinson can probably plug in on obvious running downs.
ILB - OUT: Bush / IN: Ross + Gil (instead of one)
Hard to envision McGrone or Anthony pushing out essentially co-starters this year. Not saying it's the right call, but just hard to imagine.
CB - OUT: Errrrybody / IN: Thomas + ?
Honestly, after Ambry there's about 6-7 guys that slide in here.
S - OUT: Kinnel / IN: Daxton Hill
Hawkins might start at the beginning of the year, but I expect to see a lot of Daxton Hill as the season goes on.
When I look it over, the big concern is CB. I think Paye, Hutchinson, Uche, hopefully Harrison and Karlaftis won't be Chase/Gary levels, but are probably an A- unit together. But, Zordich is going to really have to earn his money if both Hill and Long leave for the NFL.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^
McCaffery will be better than Patterson.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:27 PM ^
My prediction:
Both CBs leave, Coach Z earns his money, and we have another all-conference CB next year in addition to a 1st-team safety (Metellus).
The secondary will be very good again next year.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:37 PM ^
That defense next season is going to be a real test of how well this staff has recruited and developed talent. Especially on the DL. Lot of freshman (Hinton, Smith, plus uncommitted guys), sophomores (Hutchinson), and true juniors (Solomon, Paye) projected to play a lot of snap, which is usually a bad sign.
The good news is that the DL in 2020 should be deep and talented as hell. You lose only Reuben Jones to graduation after next season -- and that's only if he doesn't get a firm handshake at the end of this season (which seems likely).
November 28th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
Also have to think that many freshmen have started at U of M, Rick Leach and Mason Cole come to mind for me.
Why can't 5* Daxton Hill start as freshmen. It is very possible. He starts in his position and the corners get filled by others who have been here for awhile; teaching along the way.