Next years secondary
Gotta admit, it’s a little frightening.
I have always assumed that at least one of the corners would be returning next year, however it appears there is a lot of smoke about both leaving early. That leaves us with Thomas, who I don’t know really how well he has played so far, and then who? It would have to be a freshman who is never seen the fuel before. We return Metellus at safety, and then maybe Hawkins replaces Kinnel?
I’m not hitting the panic button necessarily, but I think next year we will find out just how good Dan Brown is.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
BSJ seems to always be hurt though, so not sure how much he can be counted on at this point. I agree the talent is definitely there to be solid even with 3 out of 4 (4 out of 5 if you count nickle) having turnover.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
That's a good point. I hope he gets over it because he's a good one. Unfortunately, some guys are just not physically capable of performing at this level without getting injured repeatedly. That's hard on the body and mind.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
St. Juste is like Brandon Watson only taller and faster.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^
A faster Brandon Watson would be just fine. His speed (and the grabbiness he used to compensate) was just about the only knock against him.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
Good question. Will be following replies.
I'll just add that next year we are going to need pressure from our DLine on opposing QB.
We just saw what happened when you give a QB time against our top CBs.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
Gotta remember that the majority of your DL starters are gone next season too. Gary, Winovich, and Mone are gone. Only Dwumfor remains. The DL is likely going to take another step back next season.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
Gary and Winovich, sure. Mone? Eh.
A healthy Solomon >>> Mone especially as someone who might be able to get after a QB a little.
It will be interesting to see what they do with Uche who is clearly a pass rushing DE and NOT a LB.
Paye is solid on the edge but needs to get better in the pass rushing department.
Dwumfor is Dwumfor and will continue to be a slasher.
I would expect the defense to have to out scheme some teams more than they have in recent years to get to the QB.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^
Maybe. Time will tell. But whatever he was this season wasn't better than what healthy Mone offered, so I'm no so sure he's that much better than you are implying.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
Didn't Dwum/Solomon start over Mone depending on the package?
And i'm honestly not too worried about Gary/Wino leaving as we've had guys leave for the NFL and been replaced by the next standouts at DT/DE. I feel we'll always be good to great on the DL based on recent history.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^
Probably. Point is, you're losing 3 of your top 5 DL -- two of which are likely first/second round picks -- from a DL that was already kind of underwhelming and weak up the middle. And you've got a whole lot of players that have only shown flashes in limited time behind them. Like Solomon. Keep hearing people hype him up, but he hasn't done anything to imply greatness is on deck in two seasons. Uche was great in backup duty. How does he do when playing the bulk of snaps?
Maybe they all click and turn out to be as good or better than the guys they are replacing. But the smart expectation for the DL would be a step backwards.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
"Our top corners" are Hill and Long, neither of whom were targeted for profit Saturday. The nickel and WLB (Watson and Gill) were specifically aimed at, though. The spot on the field where the most dangerous plays hit is wher ethe safeties and LBs should have been. OSU did a really good job of clearing them out and getting the matchups they wanted against Watson, and to a lesser extent, Gil.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:57 PM ^
Great point/correction.
Thanks
November 28th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Weren't we concerned about the defense last year after we lost basically all of our starters to the draft? I think we did pretty well with that new group. Don Brown will be fine and has proven so.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
I think the biggest difference is we had guys that played a lot even though they weren’t starters last year coming into the season. Long and Hill were waiting in the wings. Next year it will be Ambry and then a complete mystery.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
That's a valid point. That 2017 defense had a lot of experience players...true dat. Outside of Thomas, we didn't really see anyone else. But when we did, they were getting shredded. With that being said, we have a slew of players who have been in this systems for 3-4 years now. I fully expect excellent development from our staff.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
That team also had Mo Hurst, Gary, and Winovich returning.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
I’m not hitting the panic button necessarily, but I think next year we will find out just how good Dan Brown is.
How many starters did we return after 2016? One?
Brown had a tough day Saturday but he's good at his job.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
There's a big difference. McCray was the only returning starter, despite guys like Hurst, Winovich, Mone, Metellus, all had started games the previous year, and then guys like Gary, Watson, Kinnel, Hudson, and Bush had all played meaningful minutes as a backups while playing special teams as major contributors.
I think we'll be in a similar situation as 2017: we see new starters that were still contributors in the past, but by no means are we as bad as it shows on paper.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
Lets hope he's up thinking about this game every day until next year. That Penn State game ended up going pretty well for us.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
Well, that's pretty much what happened last year. Long, Hill, Watson, Metellus & Kinnel replaced Lewis, Stribling, Clark, Thomas & Delano Hill. That worked out relatively okay. Not saying that it's nothing to be concerned about, but we've lived through it before.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
Every team goes through this, especially teams that recruit/develop really talented guys that leave early. Pretty confident we have some solid young depth back there and a few of them will step up.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
At one point, there was some buzz on Spider Sims as well. Hopefully, we get a better read on how he is developing during bowl practices.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
We may not have studs at corner but hopefully the youngins can get the job done.
Starting corners: Thomas and St. Juste
Starting safeties: Martellus and Hawkins (although I really want to see Dax Hill from day 1)
good (but definitely unproven) depth behind all spots: Green bros, Spider Sims, Vince Gray, Woods, JKP, etc...
The question will be will anyone transfer that could really hurt our depth?
November 28th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
I thought Hawkins played pretty decently this year. I hope he's good. He seemed athletic to me.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
I think he did okay, but not much different than Kinnel. Probably a step back if we are being frank. I did not think he looked extremely athletic. He was outrun (similar to Tyree) on more than a few plays. We need difference making speed back there (insert: Daxton Hill).
November 28th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
He's definitely not an athletic freak, but I didn't see a minus athlete. Hopefully, the game will slow down for him which should increase is field speed.
I'm hoping a former WR will have better hands. One of the big differences between Michigan and the elite teams is the number of dropped interceptions. It seems like our guys are semi-frequently in a great position to snag an interception (good coaching) but often can't make a play on the ball (athletic limitations). We need dudes who make clutch plays, not guys who get hit in the facemask and drop the ball.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
Hawkins is solid, but we saw his limitation against Rugters from a physical standpoint.
He can come down and make tackles but he's not an A+ athlete and is still unproven in coverage.
Him being the floor is still good though.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
My biggest fear - Ambry Thomas gets multiple PI penalties in extending playing time. Zordich will work on him all off season though
November 28th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
The nice thing about that list is that it lacks experience but it's not a particularly young group. All of the starters are juniors or seniors by age.
I think replacing Bush is going to be the hardest thing to do for the defense. The D line will be truly young, but also (pending the recruiting finish) should have an immense amount of talent.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
None of this will matter one ounce if we don't adjust our overall defensive scheme. Because teams will simply run slants and crossing routes against us all day long. Throw the ball to 3 yards beyond the LOS and then watch them run for an additional 15.
The secret to destroying Don Brown's defense has been broadcast nationally for everyone to see. The secondary doesn't worry me nearly as much as whether or not Don will adjust.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
we didn't get pressure on Haskins - that killed us - need the DL depth so when people are banged up by season's end it doesn't kill us
November 28th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
We didn't get pressure against IU either.
Despite what the "everything is rosy" people seem to suggest - there are ways to scheme your offense to not only mitigate DL pressure but to actually take advantage of aggressive blitzing.
It's not a DL issue. It's the scheme.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
The defensive warts did start showing up with Rutgers. Carried over to IU then OSU took blueprint and ran it with better athletes than Rutgers and IU. Really was scheme that hurt Michigan vs OSU. Everytime Brown made an adjustment, OSU made another adjustment and kept Brown chasing the scheme the whole game.
Hardest thing, other than losing to OSU is I know Michigan is a lot better and OSU is not that good. Don't understand laying a big egg like that. Michigan coaches seemed off the whole game on both sides of ball. I saw players playing hard.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
Considering that the sort of routes OSU ran are QUICK routes where the QB doesn't need to sit in the pocket for very long, even if we did get pressure it would have to be almost instantaneous to be effective.
I'm not saying that our complete lack of pressure didn't hurt us, but that it's not the primary reason we got torched.
November 28th, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^
If you're running nothing but short passes, the QB isn't in the pocket long enough for pressure to matter. And even then, that still only works against lesser teams. Because what are you going to do when you run into a team with a solid OL?
November 28th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
I don't think it was any mystery, most teams just didn't have the talent to execute.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
Penn State broadcast the secret to destroying Don Brown's defense 12 months ago. Remember that? Slot fades and a mobile QB and all of that? Nobody's been able to replicate it since.
I'll post a video of WD eating a lemon if Brown's D is torched again like it was on Saturday.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
We thought the same thing about fade routes, and those were shut down. There are ways to stop crossing routes, but the question is whether its worth it to change, or not. Considering that only one team this year was able to kill us by crossing, I'm not going to get all worked up about it right now.
November 28th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
Considering that the final hurdle in our path to a conference title and beyond uses cross routes all day long, I'd say it's worth it.
Ultimately, what SHOULD happen is that the coaches game plan and scheme according to who they're playing each week in order to best attack each opponent's weaknesses and try to mitigate their strengths.
The old poker notion of "You play your opponent, not your cards" I think applies here.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
Ambry Thomas, St. Juste, and Simms were all highly coveted guys much the way Long and Hill were. Gemon Greene was also a 3.5 star. These guys will be ready. But hopefully Long AND Hill stay because neither are 1st rounders at this point (in my opinion which is obviously not what matters).
November 28th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
They'll probably both leave and be 2nd or 3rd rd picks.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
Dax Hill should immediately compete to replace Kinnel's spot. He should be an upgrade imo. Ambry Thomas is a freak athlete. Everyone seems to have forgotten about 4 star freshman Myles Sims. We have a lot of talent on this side of the ball.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
Safety - Dax can replace Kinnel, plus Hawkins is there - I think we'll be fine at safety
Corner - Ambry starts, Sims can play, then St. Juste/Green/JKP can maybe be the 3rd guy - this is the area of concern, but then again it was a concern in 2017 when Long and Hill had to step in and it worked out
November 28th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
Daxton Hill will 100% start. The space in the 2019/20 class will be helped by guys moving the F outta the way.
Ambry and Sims are my guess at CB. It will be a steep drop off from this year.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
Whatever happens, our schedule should be fine to break in the secondary. We play at Wisconsin in September, but probably won't be tested heavily until we play PSU and ND in back-to-back weeks in October (thanks Warde and JH). I'm more concerned about our DL and LBs with Wisconsin and Iowa early in the conference season.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
LB - Ross, Anthony and McGrone - should be fine
DL - lose Winovich, Gary, Mone and Marshall
Add - Hinton, Mazi Smith
Returning - Jeter, Solomon, Paye, Dwumfour, Kemp
More PT - - Aiden Hutchinson, Upshaw, Welshof
still recuiting some people too
November 28th, 2018 at 2:09 PM ^
Luigi Vilain should be healthy.
November 28th, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
Don't forget Gil at LB. I know he's not anybody's favorite right now. Me neither. But everybody wanted to ship Josh Metellus off to Bolivia after last season and he was awesome all year. Everybody wanted to put JBB out to pasture every year of his career and especially after ND, and we missed him sorely Saturday.
Guys improve. Gil got a ton of experience, saw a lot of shit, and is absolutely an asset moving forward.
Also, I think Uche's gotta be considered an end now, no?
November 28th, 2018 at 4:47 PM ^
+1 for an excellent point about Metellus and JBB.
November 28th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
Thomas as CB 1
Vincent Gray was apparently the most impressive freshman this year so he and Sims will compete for CB 2 along with the rest of the pack.
As for FS, Hill will come in and compete for it day 1. I assume 1 of the safeties will look to transfer so whoever is left will compete with him for it.