We might be #4 now but everybody needs to keep rooting for Alabama cause the Bowl Committee proved last night they REALLY want two SEC teams in the final four

Submitted by mGrowOld on November 7th, 2018 at 10:23 AM

The number one takeaway from last night's ranking reveal was that the bowl committee REALLY wants to see two SEC in the final four and is manipulating the hell out of the rankings to give themselves every chance make that happen.  By placing Georgia at #5 they now have a clear path to the final four IF they beat Alabama in the SEC title game.   And if anybody thinks a one-loss Alabama team is getting left out of the dance this year they are nuts, especially when the talking heads are currently describing them as one of the best teams in college football history and after what we saw them do last night.

When the committee only dropped Kentucky two slots after losing badly to Georgia and even more unbelievably kept a two loss LSU at #7 ahead of West Virginia, Washington State and OSU, they are setting the stage for only moving Alabama down a couple of slots should they lose to Georgia in the title game.  If that happens and both Clemson & Notre Dame win out the final four will look like this IMO (remember they only dropped Kentucky two slots after getting beat by 17 at home last week and only dropped LSU four spots after getting shut out at home)

1. Clemson

2. Georgia

3. Alabama

4. Notre Dame

We need Alabama to win out or either Clemson or Notre Dame to lose for us to be assured of getting in.  Those that say if we just win out we'll be fine are missing the elephant in the room IMO - that when a one loss Kentucky team ranked 9th lost to Georgia team ranked 6th they only dropped two slots cause it was such a "good loss".  Does anybody here really believe that if #1 ranked Alabama somehow loses to a Georgia team ranked 5th they'll drop Alabama MORE than they dropped Kentucky losing to Georgia?

Last night one of our fellow posters PapabearBlue had a perfect post IMO on what's going on and is worth a read if you missed it:

If you look at the SEC's wins/losses what is happening is a giant pile of bullshit.

The SEC has no good wins, in fact they have zero non-con wins against ranked opponents. They've all beaten each other. It's a giant circle jerk of SEC love and transitive bullshit. I'm not gonna pull up the long diatribe I typed the other day but essentially every SEC team being propped up because they beat a team who beat a team who beat them. Every one of those teams is getting good credit for their own losses.

 beats 2 who beats 3 who beats 1. Well, obviously 1 must be pretty good because they beat 2 and 2 beat 3 and 3 was good enough to beat 1.

It makes no fucking sense, it's an SEC slob job. AND it's the exact reason why preseason rankings are fucking cancer.

If Georgia isn't ranked #3 preseason then NONE of this matters.

But NO, after Georgia loses to LSU everyone just assumes LSU should be number 3, after they had just lost to a 6-3 Florida who has just now lost to 4-4 Florida. Why not do the sensible thing and assume that Georgia was over-ranked as fuck like what happens to every other conference?

Oh, yeah. SEC slob jobs.

It's fucking corrupt.

Reggie Dunlop

November 7th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^

Theres a difference between S&P+, which is predictive for future games, and S&P+ Resume which includes strength of schedule and is a ranking to date.

When you factor in the SOS, LSU is ranked 7th by S&P+ Resume, just as they are in the CFP rankings.

All of that advance metric nonsense aside, the point stands: If LSU doesnt deserve to be there, give me a team that does. I'm not even pro-LSU. I dont care. I looked at the rankings, it looks suspicious that they and Kentucky are up that high. Then you look at who's below them and I just kind of shrugged and said, "Oh. I guess so."  

I dont know what ijohnb is doing other than having a meltdown. I'd be interested in seeing anybody's personal rankings that would put somebody else over LSU and their rationale behind it. I probably wouldn't even argue it if they backed it up with a second of thought.

I'd probably leave LSU there. They lost to Alabama by a million. But OSU lost be a million too... to friggin' Purdue. Purdue =/= Alabama. WVU by 3 scores to Iowa State. Do you see the point?  WSU lost to poop USC. 

Bitching about LSU is fine until you realize every other team behind them has also kind of been a lump of crap at times. You cant cry conspiracy unless someone is being conspired against. And nobody can tell me who that is.

The Mad Hatter

November 7th, 2018 at 11:10 AM ^

I disagreed with this take until last night.  LSU got their dicks knocked into the dirt and only dropped to 7.  With Georgia right behind us I agree with you.  If Alabama loses, we're fucked.

Hopefully the other conferences would raise holy hell if 3 of the 5 were left out in favor of the SEC and ACC (+ND).  Maybe then we'd get an expanded playoff or a system with fewer biased inputs.

Alabama isn't going to lose.  Fingers crossed.

jtmc33

November 7th, 2018 at 10:34 AM ^

UGA:   Auburn, UMass, GTech, Bama

Clemson:  @BC, Duke, SCarilna, ACC Title game against a far inferior team

ND:   FSU, Syracuse, @USC

there has to, HAS TO, be at least one loss in there.... maybe 2.  

ijohnb

November 7th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^

If they lose to a good team they only have one (quality) loss and the head to head over us.  If ND loses, we need it to be to a bad team or in such a way that their performance is disqualifying, regardless of the head to head outcome v. UM. 

A one point fluky loss to Syracuse?  No, we don't want that.  A two touchdown loss to FSU?  Yes, that would work.

Any Clemson loss seals the deal, assuming we won out.  (Big assumption, I know).  That would change everything.

NC Wolverine

November 7th, 2018 at 10:34 AM ^

How awesome would it be for Harbaugh to win a National Champinship On the 49ers home field! I would love to see that. Hell I would love to see it happen anywhere but that would just be a cherry on top. 

Double-D

November 7th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^

Much of what you say is true but I still don’t see Michigan as a one loss Big Ten Champion being kept out of the playoffs.  I do think it’s important we finish strong with style points.  

Michology 101

November 7th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^

Yeah, we still have to look good during these final games. In fact, if Michigan doesn't totally destroy Rutgers, the committee might move Georgia into the top 4 in the next playoff rankings.   

Michigan not looking good down the stretch run could also give a 12-1 Oklahoma team more consideration from the committee.     

Christicks

November 7th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^

This is spot on.  It's such a farse claiming the SEC is great this year only beating each other.  We either need Alabama to win out or Notre Dame to drop a game because we will absolutely get fucked if Georgia beats Alabama and we win out.  I don't see Clemson losing, as they're rolling right now.

llandson

November 7th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^

I respectfully disagree. I believe that if Michigan wins out, it is in, even if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Here are my reasons:

Last year is not comparable. 1-loss non-SEC champ Alabama was chosen over Big Ten champ OSU because OSU had 2 losses, including a horrible loss to unranked Iowa. in 2018, the Committee would be choosing between (a) 1-loss, non-conference-champion Alabama, which just lost its last game, and has been given every break year in and year out vs. (b) 1-loss, Big Ten champ Michigan, which won its last 12 games, including easy wins over ranked teams, only loss a 1-score loss on the road against an undefeated title contender, a historically good defense, and a great story line (Michigan is finally back!). I believe the committee goes with us, to avoid the accusation of perennial favoritism.  

canzior

November 7th, 2018 at 10:47 AM ^

I think the committee is also setting up to have Michigan jump ND if they win out. The committee is a joke this year compared to years past. I think it's safe to say that the objectivity is out the window. 

Trader Jack

November 7th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^

Actually, we want Alabama to lose once before the SEC title game. Then the loser of the Alabama/Georgia matchup will be out of the playoff with their second loss. 

sammylittle

November 7th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^

Yes, I logged in to make this point exactly! It is unlikely that Alabama will lose before the SEC Championship Game but want that to happen. We do not want Alabama to win out, we would want an undefeated Alabama to beat a one-loss Georgia.

I will be in Tuscaloosa with the Mississippi State contingent rooting for a Bama loss on Saturday.

J.

November 7th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^

It's subtle, but there's logic there.  If Alabama is still undefeated entering the SEC championship game, pull for Alabama.  However, root against Alabama in every game up until that point, because that eliminates the possibility of having two one-loss teams in the SEC.  Therefore, Michigan fans aren't rooting for Alabama to win out, but if they finish the regular season 12-0, that's a different story.

sammylittle

November 7th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^

Right. Many above have stated we should pull for Alabama to go undefeated. It is better for us if Alabama loses before they play Georgia. Root against Alabama in their next 3 games.

If Bama completes the regular season undefeated, the story changes and we want for them to beat Georgia.

sammylittle

November 8th, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^

My point was to better define our rooting interests. The odds of Mississippi State or Auburn beating Alabama are slim but stranger things have happened. Both of those teams have good defenses that are capable of holding Alabama to 30 or fewer points. Neither team has looked all that sharp on offense. They would need some lucky bounces to score enough to win. Slim odds are better than no odds.

UofMfanINcolumbus

November 7th, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^

Has anybody actually watched Georgia and Alabama play this year? Georgia is ass and has a 6% chance to beat Bama. Just have Michigan win out and they’ll be in. Chill. It starts with Rutgers this weekend. 

Sauce Castillo

November 7th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^

I'm more worried about ND dropping a game and competing with them instead of Bama. Bama is a wagon who probably isn't losing this year. Plus, is any Michigan fan going to be that disappointed if we win the rest of our games and win the B1G championship, but get left out of the playoff? Maybe a little, but I'm still going to be happy as hell for the season we'd have.

bdneely4

November 7th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^

If Notre Dame loses this late in the season and we win out with a conference championship, we will jump Notre Dame.  As others have already said, I think the committee even has a hard time putting ND in front of us right now.  If ND loses, the committees response will be that they did not win a conference and Michigan is not the same team now that lost to ND at the beginning of the year.

Rasmus

November 7th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^

The only silver lining of that would be it could prompt the move to an eight-team playoff system, with five autobids. So both Bama and Georgia would be in, Georgia as SEC champion and Bama as a one-loss non-champion -- they would be seeded to only meet in the final. Similar situation for a one-loss ND if Michigan is 12-1. Both would be in, M as B1G champion, and ND on merit.

But, seriously, did anyone watch the Bama-LSU shutout? Georgia is not getting past Bama. LSU, easily the best defense in the SEC, held them to basically 31 (three long drives and two big plays), but LSU only had 12 yards rushing. Michigan, maybe, could hold them to 24 (two long drives and two big plays). At that point, Michigan's season-long emphasis on establishing the run would come into play -- you cannot beat Bama without doing that. M is the only team in the country with any chance of doing both those things: [1] holding them to a surmountable number on offense, and [2] running the ball just well enough to keep them honest on defense.

M feels like the only team that has improved enough to have a shot against Bama. I'm still BPONE enough to not really believe in 12-1, but I do believe all of the above. If Michigan is out of the CFP, then it will be a coronation for the Tide.