We might be #4 now but everybody needs to keep rooting for Alabama cause the Bowl Committee proved last night they REALLY want two SEC teams in the final four
The number one takeaway from last night's ranking reveal was that the bowl committee REALLY wants to see two SEC in the final four and is manipulating the hell out of the rankings to give themselves every chance make that happen. By placing Georgia at #5 they now have a clear path to the final four IF they beat Alabama in the SEC title game. And if anybody thinks a one-loss Alabama team is getting left out of the dance this year they are nuts, especially when the talking heads are currently describing them as one of the best teams in college football history and after what we saw them do last night.
When the committee only dropped Kentucky two slots after losing badly to Georgia and even more unbelievably kept a two loss LSU at #7 ahead of West Virginia, Washington State and OSU, they are setting the stage for only moving Alabama down a couple of slots should they lose to Georgia in the title game. If that happens and both Clemson & Notre Dame win out the final four will look like this IMO (remember they only dropped Kentucky two slots after getting beat by 17 at home last week and only dropped LSU four spots after getting shut out at home)
1. Clemson
2. Georgia
3. Alabama
4. Notre Dame
We need Alabama to win out or either Clemson or Notre Dame to lose for us to be assured of getting in. Those that say if we just win out we'll be fine are missing the elephant in the room IMO - that when a one loss Kentucky team ranked 9th lost to Georgia team ranked 6th they only dropped two slots cause it was such a "good loss". Does anybody here really believe that if #1 ranked Alabama somehow loses to a Georgia team ranked 5th they'll drop Alabama MORE than they dropped Kentucky losing to Georgia?
Last night one of our fellow posters PapabearBlue had a perfect post IMO on what's going on and is worth a read if you missed it:
If you look at the SEC's wins/losses what is happening is a giant pile of bullshit.
The SEC has no good wins, in fact they have zero non-con wins against ranked opponents. They've all beaten each other. It's a giant circle jerk of SEC love and transitive bullshit. I'm not gonna pull up the long diatribe I typed the other day but essentially every SEC team being propped up because they beat a team who beat a team who beat them. Every one of those teams is getting good credit for their own losses.
beats 2 who beats 3 who beats 1. Well, obviously 1 must be pretty good because they beat 2 and 2 beat 3 and 3 was good enough to beat 1.
It makes no fucking sense, it's an SEC slob job. AND it's the exact reason why preseason rankings are fucking cancer.
If Georgia isn't ranked #3 preseason then NONE of this matters.
But NO, after Georgia loses to LSU everyone just assumes LSU should be number 3, after they had just lost to a 6-3 Florida who has just now lost to 4-4 Florida. Why not do the sensible thing and assume that Georgia was over-ranked as fuck like what happens to every other conference?
Oh, yeah. SEC slob jobs.
It's fucking corrupt.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
No. If we win out, we're in. It's more likely that ND gets screwed than us--we are the only good team they've played, and the committee has already explicitly stated that our resumes are close.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
I swear, some of you will just bitch about anything (yes there is strong acc/sec bias), but Michigan has seemed to have solved some early issues, come together, and is simply destroying it's ranked opponents.
Sit back, relax@Shea, and enjoy the show.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
The SEC has been gaming the system with the rankings for years now. Get high pre-season ranking, make sure you play nobody in the non-conference schedule so you don't lose, then have everyone in the conference ranked and point to all of your ranked conference opponents. And make sure you propagandize the hell out of the media to make sure people are always talking about how great you are.
It doesn't work without an elite program at the top that can actually win big games. It was Florida for a while. Now it is Alabama. But the game has always been the same. The SEC is a very good conference, but not nearly as good as the media makes them out to be.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
The last couple years' rankings have swung so much at the end, it's hard to get too worked up about preliminary results. LSU looks like a Sugar Bowl team. No matter what happens the rest of their season OU or WVU will jump them, as they play twice late in the season.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
Dude....there is absolutely no way a 1 loss Big Ten Champion Michigan gets passed over for a Playoff bid but someone ranked below. That would be what 6 or 7 wins verse ranked teams if they were to beat OSU and Win Big Ten champ.
Besides, if we win Big Ten Champ and beat OSU this might be the year it would be better to go out and play in the Rose bowl over getting steam rolled by Bama again.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
There is still lot of football left to play. Michigan has a terrible record against OSU the last 18 years and everyone is all of the sudden worried about playoff scenarios?? Beat OSU and whatever happens after that is a bonus.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
The good news is the Michigan and OSU teams of the past 18 years aren't playing this year.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
Two SEC teams in the Final Four would be corrupt and invalidate the entire process. It would invalidate any championship. They might still do it though. A couple recent Bama championships are least partially due to SEC bias. So, yeah, it's best if Bama wins out and removes all doubt.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
And yet last year . . .
November 7th, 2018 at 5:03 PM ^
Two Bama titles are suspect because SEC bias got them into a game they didn't really deserve. Now it's possible you could make similar claims for some of their other titles, based on SEC bias getting them an opponent that didn't actually deserve to be there, but I don't have the info in front of me to back that kind of claim up right now.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
Georgia has U Mass in two weeks,they already played Austin Peay and Middle Tennessee
Committee needs to punish these teams that play these kind of schedules.
Georgia still has Jekyll and Hyde Auburn (this week) and Georgia Tech is a rival game.
By the time they get to the SEC title game they could be worn down (playing two physical teams) and it could get really ugly vs Bama ,if Georgia isnt 100% rested
November 7th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
If you read through the responses to my post I find it interesting that those who dismiss this do so based on one of the following:
1. We're Michigan - they would never leave us out cause of ratings and national appeal
2. No way does the committee leave out a 1 loss B1G Championship team
The committee told you all last night what they are going to do if Georgia beats Alabama. They sent a very clear signal when they moved Georgia ahead of Oklahoma (cause of their quality win over Kentucky) while only moving Kentucky back two slots (cause of their quality loss to Georgia). They sent you another clear signal when they said a one loss Ohio State team is ranked behind a two loss LSU team as well as Oklahoma, Washington State and West Virginia. They are telling you they think the SEC is amazing, top to bottom, and the B1G is weak.
They are playing both sides against the middle (heads I win/tails you lose) and if you cant see it I dont know what else I can tell you right now.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
"one of the best teams in college football history" would not lose its conference championship game on a neutral field. If they did that, then maybe they are NOT one of the best teams in college football history.
But sadly, I think your assessment is right on . . . the committee is absolutely setting the table for a one-loss Alabama to get in no matter what.
The want Alabama in. Period.
BTW, I think they are doing this for the ACC too. They are also setting the table for a one-loss Clemson to get in. Perhaps not over us if we take care of business, but over a one-loss WSU, WVU, or OU.
They want Clemson in.
Their first choice if they were confessing the truth is that they want 2 SEC teams in, Clemson in, and then somebody else "interesting" in that has not been there before.
That "interesting" team could be Notre Dame, it could be us, but not both. It could be WVU. WSU is probably too much of a stretch.
I don't think they are at all interested in Ohio State or Oklahoma. Been there done that. They would likely lose in the semi's, let's get somebody more interesting in there.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
Yup - I totally agree. It blows my mind how many people here dont want to believe it cause it's unpleasant and they dont want it to occur. They give absolutely no reason why it wont other than "WE'RE MICHIGAN" and completely ignore what they watched happen last night.
BTW - if this happens (and God help me I hope to Hell it doesnt) but if it does I'm going to post a thread titled: "I told you this would happen"
November 7th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
None of this matters if we don't win out.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
I don't agree with your thesis. Yes, CFP likes SEC but I don't believe abama will get in with 1 loss to UGA They simply cannot get in over a 1 loss conference champion. Period.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
win out and Michigan is in. chill out.
Georgia aint beating Bama in the SEC title game. NO SHOT.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^
This will get buried, but good lord is Clemson's schedule a pile of crap. The assumption that a team that barely got by 6-3 Auburn and, I guess, an overrated NC State team is a clear-cut #2 in the country is highly suspect.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^
Clemson hasn't played Auburn this year—you must be thinking of TA&M, who they beat in College Station. Clemson had a 28-13 lead at the beginning of the 4th quarter and the Aggies scored twice to make it close.
Not long ago their games against FSU and Louisville would have been tough, but this year those programs have basically collapsed.
November 7th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
It wouldn't make much sense for both Georgia and Alabama to be in the CFB if they just played each other, on a neutral field, in the SECCG. The SECCG is a de facto quarter-final game. CFP takes the best one-loss team from the SEC and that's the end of it. No team should be invited to the CFP that can't make a legitimate claim to be playing straight away for the national championship.
Likewise, the head-to-head result of ND over Michigan could in the end enable a one-loss Oklahoma (or West Virginia) team to leapfrog M at the end, especially now that M could be playing a rematch with a 6-6 Northwestern team in the B1GCG. In that case, Rose Bowl, here we come!
November 7th, 2018 at 5:08 PM ^
I get what you are saying about Georgia and Alabama. But why should the #1 team have to play in a de facto quarterfinal game when others are not?
I get that other teams have to win, but they may not be playing the same caliber team, and if one of the teams has no playoff shot, then it is not really a quarterfinal. Like, no one is arguing that Northwestern should get in if they were to win the BIG championship game. Same with one of the ACC teams, one (or maybe even both) of the PAC teams.
November 7th, 2018 at 3:03 PM ^
This ain't a thing worth getting worked up about. Georgia's Pretty Good and they'll get smashed by Alabama in Atlanta. Just root for Oklahoma to lose because that's who could really dick over Michigan, not Georgia. Georgia/Bama will play itself out.
November 7th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^
I've been saying this all along - 12-1 > 11-1, so we should be more worried about Bama losing in the SEC championship than getting one loss in the regular season.
Best case scenario is for Bama to poop the bed against somebody before the SEC CG and then beat Georgia anyway. Guarantees the SEC loser has at least 2 losses.
November 7th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^
The thing you fail to notice is the fact that Georgia and Alabama are two of the best teams in the country. If Georgia beats Alabama, they should be on the Playoff. Alabama is the best team in the country. They should be in too. I would argue, that Michigan has a better chance of unseating ND in this scenario. Who knows.
November 7th, 2018 at 5:09 PM ^
I mean yeah, this.
I get why people do it, but the knots you have to tie yourself into hoping there's some kind of technicality that keeps Alabama out is pointless. Dropping one close game to Georgia would not be enough to boot them out, and if you think they won't be in with one close loss, you've paid zero attention to college football in the playoff era and how the committee thinks of this stuff.
November 7th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
I can for sure argue against it. Look at last year. The committee said outright that the decision between Alabama and Ohio State was very close and that what got Ohio State left out was that they got completely blown out of the water by a mediocre team. Contrary to the popular narrative, I think they would have been perfectly happy leaving out Alabama if there was another team with a real argument out there, but there wasn't. Even if you make the cynical argument that the committee cares a lot about brand name and ratings, Alabama isn't a ratings behemoth. Most people don't care to see them anymore. Without even looking I'm 98% sure Georgia/Oklahoma had better ratings than Bama/Clemson III. Alabama is not getting in without a conference championship this year unless Michigan, Oklahoma, and West Virginia all lose another game.
November 7th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^
I will believe Alabama misses the playoffs only after it has happened.
November 7th, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
It doesn't really matter who we root for
I know, I'm no fun at parties.
November 7th, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^
None of it matters. We have to win The Game. We are the only team that can slow bama down. And Shea and company, give us a shot. I really hope we get to play them.
GO BLUE!!
November 7th, 2018 at 6:02 PM ^
If Bama loses a close game to Georgia, i would expect the committee's choice for the #4 spot to look a lot like the Da'Shawn Hand decision- huge majority expecting Michigan to get the decision, only to have Michigan get the rug pulled out from under them
November 7th, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^
If Michigan wins out going 12-1 with a big ten championship that means they defeated 4 ranked teams on the season, two on the road. They have held 7 out of 8 opponents to season lows. They will not be left out of the playoffs. I do not care if Alabama and Georgia tie in the sec championship game. Michigan is a big draw, big name and a big school.
and what did people watch last night? They watched Michigan state lose in basketball and then watched Michigan move up to #4. They listened to the head of the committee say they are impressed with Michigan and hint of moving them past Nd if they win out. People are freaking out because of what pollock said and his arguments.
Rooting interest
Alabama to win out.
notre dame to lose to Syracuse or USC.
omlahoma to lose to Oklahoma state or West Virginia.
michigan to win out.
go blue!
November 8th, 2018 at 12:22 AM ^
Your big draw, big name, big school argument had me convinced until you listed rooting interests.
November 7th, 2018 at 6:59 PM ^
I'll say a couple of things.
We shouldn't throw stones because we live in a bit of a glass house ourselves. We don't have any good non-con wins either. Our ranking is built entirely on the fact that they've beaten Wisconsin, MSU, and Penn State in dominating fashion. Similar to how Alabama has beaten LSU and A&M by huge margins. Also, not trying to downplay what an accomplishment that three game stretch is, but remember that MSU lost to a mediocre Arizona St. and Wisconsin lost to a crap BYU team. Northwestern had a 17-0 lead on Michigan and lost to Akron. Purdue lost to EMU. Maryland lost to Temple. The best non-con wins in the Big Ten right now are Iowa over Iowa State and OSU over TCU. Not a great outlook. I would take LSU -7 over MSU at this point and -14 over Wisconsin. Georgia is for sure better than Penn State.
But all of this is ultimately irrelevant to me because I don't believe for a second that if Michigan wins out they get left out for Alabama if Bama loses the SEC championship game. People seriously overrate the commitee's supposed love for Alabama just because they chose them over an obviously bad choice in OSU last year. Ohio State had more losses, and one of them was a blowout to a bad team. There's no need for conspiracy theories and pearl-clutching. They made the right choice there.
I'm much more worried about Oklahoma running the table and having two wins over a currently top ten West Virginia, especially if Ohio State drops another one before The Game and we end up playing an 8-4/7-5 Northwestern in the conference championship game.
November 7th, 2018 at 7:11 PM ^
I am watching the clowns on ESPN - College Football Live right now talking about how UM is out if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship. No balance in the discussion what so ever. Just out, Alabama in period.
Sorry but the powers that be are already setting up the duck, just as mGrowOld is saying. If that happens this system needs to be blown up. As they said on BTN, what are we doing then. Do you have to play in the SEC to get into the playoff?
November 7th, 2018 at 7:22 PM ^
who really cares? if michigan wins out, which would mean they finish 12-1 with a big ten championship, why would anything else matter?
November 7th, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^
Conference championships are amazing. National championships are even better. And if Bama were out of the way, you have to like Michigan's chances. I hope Georgia does beat them amd chaos ensues in the Big XII. Then you're looking at Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, and Michigan as your playoff field. That would be awesome.
November 7th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^
Isn’t it fun that worrying about our top 4 ranking is the new “problem” we worry about around here. Just a few years ago, we received news that some joker named Brady Hoke had been hired as the new head coach.
These are good times. These blog posts are like a fine wine or a robust cigar, I’m taking in all the fragrance and essence of being a winning team again.
November 7th, 2018 at 9:58 PM ^
It truly is a thoughtful, well put together argument. But why root for anyone else? Win out, win big, let the chips fall where they may. If Michigan takes care of what it needs to take care of, the outside factors won’t matter.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:47 PM ^
I am glad we're having this discussion.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
This is some Alex Jones level paranoia right here
November 7th, 2018 at 11:20 PM ^
I agree, although, that SEC champ game should be treated like a playoff game and the loser is out, winner is in
November 9th, 2018 at 3:23 AM ^
It's a math problem, going through the cases.
If Alabama wins all their games, that gives Georgia 2 losses at best, so Alabama is in, but Georgia is not.
If Alabama wins all games except against Georgia (and Georgia wins all games except the one they already lost), Georgia is SEC champ and is in, and *maybe* 1 loss Alabama non-champ is in, too. This is the case we worry about.
If Alabama loses to, say, Miss. State and wins against Georgia, Alabama is SEC champ and probably in, and Georgia with 2 losses is out.
If Alabama loses to, say, Miss. State and loses to Georgia, Georgia is in, and Alabama is probably out.
So, I am rooting for Miss. State. It maximizes chances for Michigan. Then I will be rooting for Alabama in game vs. Georgia.
Actually, this week, I am rooting for the Coweagle Bulltigers (Ok. State over Oklahoma, BC over Clemson, Auburn over Georgia, Miss. State over Alabama).
Go, fightin' Coweagle Bulltigers! Put on the ol' dull red, blue, 'n dull orange!