CFP Rankings - We in the Top-4 officially, thread
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. LSU
8. Wazzu
9. West Virginia
10. Ohio State
One of these things is not like the other. LSU is still neatly situated at the number 7 spot, after not scoring a point against Alabama last week...to continue propping up the SEC.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:12 PM ^
For some reason, I never thought of the possibility we jump ND if we both win out. Figured the H2H would prevail. Very annoying ND is getting gifted a game against an absurdly highly ranked Syracuse. Their statistic profile is similar to Nebraska who is 56 and Syracuse is 58 per S&P.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^
GO BLUE!
November 6th, 2018 at 10:07 PM ^
Give Herbie credit. Galloway will flip against us when he has the opportunity. Pollack is an idiot.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:26 PM ^
Agree. You have to give Herbie credit - he was taking it from both ends and hung in there.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:10 PM ^
HARBAUGH & DON BROWN!!!!! HAIL!!!!!! GO BLUE!!!!!
November 6th, 2018 at 10:12 PM ^
Georgia will get curb stomped by Alabama in the SEC championship game. All Michigan had to do is win out and they're in.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:15 PM ^
I don't think Georgia is going to fare much better against Bama than LSU did.
My hawt take; playoff is going to be:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Oklahoma
ND is going to shit the bed against Syracuse.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:50 PM ^
Yes please! The only two teams I would not want to face in the semis are Oklahoma and Alabama
November 6th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
I'm not getting the fear about Oklahoma.
They're not scoring half their normal points/game if they have to face Don Brown's Michigan defense, and their defense can't stop anybody.
Doesn't matter though---only way we'd face them in the semi-final would be 2 vs 3 and I can't imagine any scenario where Oklahoma gets as high as #3. The Sooners even getting in the playoffs at #4 seems to be a long shot, IMO.
November 8th, 2018 at 12:52 AM ^
Agreed. OU doesn't scare me. Something crazy could happen, but we'd stop them plenty and I don't think they could stop M.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:24 AM ^
I agree
November 6th, 2018 at 10:17 PM ^
SEC and ACC is so fucking overrated by the committee its criminal. Joel Klatt is going to rip the committee this week
November 7th, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^
I don't think anyone thinks the ACC is any good, outside of Clemson.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:17 PM ^
Honestly, bring back the BCS, but with a playoff. We might be fourth, but these rankings are awful.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:18 PM ^
David Pollack sucks. Does he even watch college football?
November 6th, 2018 at 10:28 PM ^
Beat Rutgers.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:30 PM ^
Who is Rutgers?
November 6th, 2018 at 10:56 PM ^
He means Rutger.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:28 PM ^
The BIG has five non conference wins against current top 25 teams. SEC and ACC have ZERO.
November 8th, 2018 at 12:54 AM ^
Auburn beat Washington.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:38 PM ^
All the rankings of ACC teams in this ranking are jokes besides Clemson
November 6th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
How the fuck is Iowa ranked???
November 6th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
idk, but watching a lot of college football this year I'm pretty sure after about #12 its a complete tossed salad of mediocre teams.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:01 AM ^
They beat Iowa State which provided a back-stop to their descent. They have the best win over MAC-West-leading NIU this season. Close road losses to solid teams in PSU and Purdue.
I mean, it's hard to make better arguments for anyone below them except probably Auburn and Washington who could swap places with Iowa and Iowa State.
BlueInLansing is correct. After the top teams, it's a mess of hot garbage in the second tier of CFB.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
The chair of this committee is a complete moron. He says Michigan has won two consecutive games and calls the ND QB Ian Booker. I have no faith that he is watching the games.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:47 PM ^
Right, dude was reading off a pamphlet the entire time, clearly struggling to answer questions that the "chairman" should know off hand.
The average, casual college football fan could put together a better top 25.
November 7th, 2018 at 8:23 AM ^
Agreed. But remember that this is the result of a committee. Compromise and various conflicting agendas produces this result. The BCS top 2 were determined by a computer algorithm. Both ranking methods have their flaws. The best way to ensure all the top teams are selected for the playoff is to expand it to more teams.
In this current system with only 4 playoff slots, the conference championship games are more relevant toward determining Bowl Game selections, not playoff slots. In fact, in some circumstances they can keep deserving teams out of the playoff. Imagine if UM and OSU both arrive at The Game next year and are both undefeated, a la 2006. If OSU won by a field goal, we would all be in agreement that a one loss Michigan should still be playoff eligible. After all, the game could have gone either way.
TLDR
A four team playoff has too few teams. We need at least a 6 or 8 team playoff to make sure we include every deserving team.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^
I had the same reaction watching the show. Seriously bad
November 6th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
Onwards. Get to #3 and face Bama as the last stop of the Revenge Tour.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:55 PM ^
5 power 5 conference champions get into the playoffs and the highest ranked group of 5 team gets in. Committee’s only job is to seed the six teams. CCG should be de-facto play-in games and if these group of 5 teams are in the same subdivision they should get a chance.
Alabama
Clemson
Michigan
Oklahoma
Wash St
UCF
Independents need to join a conference
November 7th, 2018 at 12:37 AM ^
This was on the table at one point (or a variation of it) but the SEC refused to participate if it wasn't just the best teams because they knew they'd be able to get multiple teams in ahead of some conference champs.
It would be really interesting if the rest of the conferences just said, ok, stay out. Would be fascinating. The other four P5 schools send their champs to semis of their own playoffs. How much would that hurt the appeal and relevance of the SEC? I feel like a lot.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:16 AM ^
I'd somehow never heard of this ridiculous concept. I love it. A kind of reverse ABA-NBA feel. With the Rose Bowl as the P4 Natl Championship game every year. Would really be refreshing to hear less about the SEC all the time.
November 7th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
I don't agree with the conference champion automatic qualifier option, and all I have to do is point to the ACC and B1G this year as the reason. Pitt is leading the Coastal division right now. Pitt sucks. Northwestern is leading the West and we know they are mediocre and lost to Duke(!!!!!!!). If either of those teams pulled off an upset in the CCG, you think they should be in a 6 team playoff? As long as conferences are gonna have terribly unbalanced divisions and schedules I am not for conference champion auto bids.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:07 PM ^
I like being relevant
November 6th, 2018 at 11:12 PM ^
Right after LSU is Washington State. You really think Wazzu is better than LSU?
What baffles me is sparty jumping in at 18.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:19 PM ^
I think LSU would handle them fairly easily. Wazzu non-con is bunch of nobodies, won all their close games in a really mediocre Pac-12.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:43 AM ^
I'm very much in agreement with Sparty being that high and that's one of the things the committee actually got right, at least in terms of resume Ws and Ls. I was making this argument yesterday.
They won at PSU so after PSU lost by far more to Michigan than MSU did and with the same record, MSU had to be ahead of PSU. Add in their win over Utah State, which the committee isn't even giving them enough credit for, their double digit win against (current) Purdue and their road stomping of Maryland (which, btw, is why they're ahead of Texas) and they have solid wins.
PLUS, their previous worst loss was at Arizona State where Utah just got crushed and ASU now have a winning record.
Michigan State has a better resume than most three loss teams and definitely the two loss ACC teams.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:13 PM ^
Bullshit mobile experience double post. I give up on mobile. Call me when HUEL gets their training wheels off.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:22 PM ^
This has already been posted in this thread, but I'm going to say it again.
It is CRAZY - absolutely CRAZY when you look at the movement of some of these teams from the ACC and the SEC and how many of them are ranked much higher than they should be.
LSU - drops 4 spots and can't even score a point against Alabama. Unranked Tennessee scored 21 points against Bama and Arkansas scored 31. And yet 7-2 LSU only drops from 3 to 7. Bullshit. I can't see any way you can legitimately rank this two-loss team higher than any one loss team other than Fresno State.
#9 Kentucky lost to #6 UGA and only dropped 2 spots, but #14 PSU lost to #5 Michigan and dropped 6 spots, past Florida, Miss State, BC and Texas. Michigan had a better win than UGA did, but I think UK should have dropped farther than 2 places.
#19 Syracuse beat unranked Wake Forest and jumped 6 spots! to #13. I think there are a few 3 loss teams that they should be ranked behind and they should not have shot up so high.
#23 NC State beat unranked FSU and jumped 7 spots to #14, while #24 Iowa State beat unranked Kansas and only moved up 2 spots. NC State has only played one ranked team (Clemson) and lost to them and unranked Syracuse. Meanwhile, Iowa State has played 3 ranked teams, losing to Oklahoma by 10 pts and beating WVU and OK State. They may have one more loss, but I have a hard time jumping the ACC team so high and the Big 12 team a minimal amount.
#11 FLA lost to unranked Mizzou, picking up their 3rd loss, and only drops 4 spots to #15. They are the top ranked 3 loss team. I think they should be closer to Texas when you compare their ranked wins/losses.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:23 AM ^
So Syracuse and NC State are ranked absurdly high. The weird thing about this season is that there are fewer two loss teams (only 5) than one-loss teams (6) from P5 conferences. And then a huge mass of three-loss teams.
So the committee is using the worst habit of poll voters possible by blindly ranking Cuse and NC State ahead of all those 3 loss teams. Half the three loss teams on this list should be ahead of them.
The thing is, if Florida and Miss St were in the top 15 still, we'd all be complaining about the SEC bias. As I try to figure out who should be ranked higher here, it's clear that the second tier of college football is just unusually weak this year. The advanced stats say Washington, Miss St, PSU and Wisconsin are the best three loss team but hard to look at what they've done lately and agree.
I do think the CFP is not giving G5 teams enough love. For Utah State not to be ranked is kind of crazy. Their one loss was on the road at the #18 team by a TD. They crushed a respectable BYU team on the road. They crushed a Hawaii team with a winning record on the road and they're in the teens on all the advanced metrics. If you're going to use the "eye test" ignore Alabama's SoS, do it for other teams.
Iowa State, btw, was "blocked" by Iowa because of their head-to-head, which is why they didn't move up more.
November 7th, 2018 at 1:00 AM ^
Who should be ranked higher is Northwestern.
Northwestern has wins at Purdue, at MSU, and home over Wisconsin.
Syracuse has wins over no one. Maybe NC State if you count them, but you can't because NC State has wins over no one good at all. Their best win is a 28-23 home win over BC, who lost to Purdue by 17, albeit on the road.
Sure, Northwestern has a horrible loss. But their wins more than make up for it over the likes of Syracuse and NC State.
November 7th, 2018 at 6:06 AM ^
They are 5-4. No way they can be ranked.
November 8th, 2018 at 1:03 AM ^
Northwestern is knocking on the doorstep but they have two kind of horrible losses: Akron and by two TDs to Duke...at home! That negates the good wins. Also, their win over Wisconsin was without Hornibrook, right? That's something the committee can and should be taking into account.
November 7th, 2018 at 5:55 AM ^
Yes. Now chaos doesn’t even really benefit us that much, because say ND loses to Syracuse, that is a “good loss” and with head to head they probably still get in over us. Honestly, this committee is pulling out all stops to make it as hard as possible for Michigan to get in.
November 6th, 2018 at 11:52 PM ^
All the comments about the SEC and ACC being overrated are completely true.
Besides the obvious ones already mentioned(UF, LSU, Kentucky) I think the biggest one might be Mississippi State. Tell me how they are the 16th best team in the country? They played 3 good teams this year(the 3 I just mentioned actually) and lost to all 3, scoring a total of 16 points in those 3 games. Their best win is I guess 6-3 Auburn, their 2nd best win is over 5-4 Texas A&M, their 3rd best win is over La Tech.
They will get killed by Bama this week, but since its Bama they will only fall a few spots. So next week we will have #21 ranked Mississippi State that is 6-4 with no good wins, love that SEC bias.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:29 AM ^
They are actually liked even more by the advanced stats than they are ranked here. 11th in S&P+!
And yes, it's because they beat Auburn and T A&M fairly easily (by 2 TDs each). Those are both teams in the 20-30 range so it's not a stretch to have them in the top 20.
Mentioned it above, but the second tier in CFB is fairly weak this year so that whole 12-25 range could all be randomly flipped around and I'm not sure any landing spot would be better or worse than where they are now. There are only 5 (!!) two loss teams from P5 conferences and three of them are terrible ACC teams. So there's this huge jumble of 2 and 3 loss teams that are virtually indistinguishable. You could (should) toss some four loss teams like Northwestern, Purdue and Texas A&M into that mix too.
November 7th, 2018 at 12:07 AM ^
LSU should have dropped behind WVU, WSU and OSU.
But this year looks like Bama, Clemson, ND, Mich and UGA .... maybe Oklahoma, then everyone else is a step down
November 7th, 2018 at 12:49 AM ^
Committee is full of shit. Let's win the Big Ten!
November 7th, 2018 at 12:50 AM ^
If we win out, we are in. If we don’t, we aren’t. Everything else is just palaver.
November 7th, 2018 at 5:34 AM ^
Big 10 is a pile of shit too. How many SEC teams would the Big 10 West beat? How about Penn State (who struggled with Appy St.?)