Michigan Monday is up.

Submitted by Chitown Kev on October 2nd, 2018 at 8:50 PM

Just a note for future reference, when the Buckeyes are playing on the road like they did this past weekend at Penn State, I’m going to have a very difficult time getting Michigan Monday out on a Monday. However, I also reserve the right to have a very difficult time getting Michigan Monday out on a Monday following a home game. Or following a bye week.

Anyway, I didn’t bring you here to make excuses for my late work. I brought you here to tell you how much I feel like I don’t need to actually watch this Michigan team to know what happened in a game right now.

https://theozone.net/2018/10/michigan-monday-northwestern/

I will say that Gerederman did somewhat appreciate the fact that...well, this was at Northwestern and that weird shit happens there sometimes...

Still, after McSorley gaining 175 yards rushing on their defense there appears to be some...concern... about Patterson

After seeing Trace McSorley rush for 175-odd yards against the Buckeyes, I could definitely see Patterson do at least half of that against OSU if Harbaugh wanted.

Make of it what you will...damning Michigan with faint praise seems to be the gist of it all in this MM.

Mongo

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:00 PM ^

Thought OSU defense is totally suspect and Haskins is no Hesiman candidate.  Those are my "hot takes" ...

mGrowOld

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:04 PM ^

My hot take is a bit different.  I Thought OSU played their worst game of the year and still found a way to win, on the road, at night, against a top 10 team.

We will get their absolute best effort you can count on that.  Be afraid. Be very afraid.

jmblue

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:13 PM ^

It was a tough road environment, but I'm not certain how good PSU actually is.  Even if they are awesome, the Franklin Factor is a big equalizer.

Don't know about OSU.  I don't feel like this is the 2015 OSU squad all over again.  It's played two teams with a pulse and has arguably gotten outplayed both times.

switch26

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:26 PM ^

Illinois for for roughly 250 yards rushing at a 5 ypc clip... against Penn state's defense.. 

It was a tough environment for OSU, but im not sure how dominating either of those teams were watching the game.

 

OSU's defense of mcsorley was brutal..

Mongo

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:29 PM ^

Both defenses are mediocre.  High octane offense - yes, but defenses are below average compared to normal program strength for each.  I like our chances if our defense can start a dang game on fire.

Edit:  If we come out nervous and garf 14 points in the hole in Q1 we are fucked.  The defense needs to be playing on fire from the first snap until the final whistle.  Special defensive effort is required to win these games.  Swagger in need.

Gipsy_Danger

October 3rd, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^

I'd say blatant insults are much worse than an objective opinion that you can't grasp. 

The guy isn't right, but his take isn't necessarily wrong either. 

greatlakestate

October 3rd, 2018 at 12:18 AM ^

"Done more with less?"  He has recruited very well, so I'm not sure what you're talking about there.  In fact that is his greatest strength.  Also hired some good coordinators. I don't think he is in anyway a great football mind.  I don't think he's better than Harbaugh.

Victor70

October 3rd, 2018 at 9:34 AM ^

I would say O'Brien started the rebuild did the heavy lifting and set up the foundation for Franklin, Harbaugh had a good defense from Hoke but not much on offense.   The starting point for Franklin was ahead of where Harbaugh started, though as I wrote this I convinced myself it is a smaller gap than I thought when I felt compelled to reply.

saveferris

October 3rd, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^

How has Franklin had "less talent" than Harbaugh?  Name one player on Michigan's roster during Harbaugh's tenure the caliber of Saquon Barkley?  Shea Patterson is definitively a better QB than Trace McSorley?  You can't defend that either and McSorley is certainly better than any QB Harbaugh has had previous to Patterson.

Franklin has accomplished more at PSU than Harbaugh has up to this point, but don't artificially inflate it's significance by pretending that PSU has no football talent in it's program.

SkyBlue

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:41 PM ^

OSU played a garbage schedule before the PSU game and played one decent team TCU. And TCU is going to lose 4-5 more games this season so that win will look cheap. OSU is good but let’s not put them in the championship game yet. 

lhglrkwg

October 3rd, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^

OSU looooves to run the score in these early season games too. They'll take their cupcake and run the score up to 70. They are often very good, but I think they are subject to being overrated because they won't take the foot off the gas like other top 25 programs would in the same situation

Bambi

October 2nd, 2018 at 10:16 PM ^

Their defense has definitely played worse (TCU overall, Oregon St. on a relative level). The offense probably not but our defense will be the best they face all year.

Not saying I think we'll beat them (I don't) but I agree with the hot takes you responded to.

BlueKoj

October 2nd, 2018 at 10:50 PM ^

UM consistently gets Sparty’s best game, but OSU has out recruited UM for a decade and easily had the better coaching staff 2008 - 2014. Every close game during that time is a testament to not getting their best game. Looking forward to over performing that week and officiating that is mostly fair (no away game there will actually be fair).

CompleteLunacy

October 3rd, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^

My take is the game had much more to do with PSU and Franklin, specifically, choking the game away. They clearly outplayed the Buckeyes, but at several points just couldn't do the things necessary to solidify the win, allowing OSU to hang around and hang around until they made one dumb mistake too many. Sure, OSU found a way to win, but it felt different from last year when the OSU comeback was OSU storming back with a vengence on the shoulders of JT Barrett.

gustave ferbert

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:06 PM ^

the offense needed to "work out the kinks."  which is strange to see considering Patterson still completed 2/3 of his passes.  

 

Interesting comment in the end about how he throws it out there that Harbaugh is under-utilizing the offense. 

Mongo

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^

Best MM quote:

"It’s the same for all horror movies. A group of teenagers goes and thinks they’re gonna have a real good time at an old family fishing cabin in the woods, and that’s what the first 20 minutes of the movie is. Things are going great and everyone is happy. Then the insane asylum has a breakout and the rest of the movie is Chase Winovich murdering dudes with a pick axe."

LSAClassOf2000

October 2nd, 2018 at 9:31 PM ^

(I would also list the road trip to Rutgers here, but we all know that you throw the records out in rivalry games.)

I can't be the only person who laughed at that, even a little bit.

G. Gulo of the Dale

October 2nd, 2018 at 10:53 PM ^

Awesome.  Thank you.

Just for clarification, though, you mention updating the graph up through the present day, but it says that the data begins in 2015.  The original version that I saw posted this morning begins in 2014, so is '2015' a typo, or are you updating a different graph that indeed begins in 2015 (as the bottom of your image seems to suggest)?  Sorry if I'm missing something.  Thanks in advance.

DT76

October 2nd, 2018 at 10:49 PM ^

Horror movie paragraph plus this next one.

Northwestern rushed for 28 yards on 34 carries, which is about an average of two-and-half turkey subs per carry. If you’re not averaging at least 15 turkey subs per carry, you’re going to have a difficult time winning a game.

What would it take to just hire this guy?

PapabearBlue

October 2nd, 2018 at 10:55 PM ^

Methinks Harbaugh is saving Patterson some hits until it's really needed and then we are going to see some serious runs out of him. He seems pretty fast when he needs it. If he's healthy and isn't run a lot until OSU then I could see him getting 10+ intentional carries.

 

TrueBlue2003

October 3rd, 2018 at 12:33 AM ^

I think this has to be it. He busted it out only when it was needed against Northwestern.  They're trying to get to the most important games, and I think it's very smart.  I wouldn't even run him against Wisconsin much.  Save it for MSU and the divisional foes.

And then if we get to OSU with Patterson still healthy, they'll let him run free.

trustBlue

October 2nd, 2018 at 11:01 PM ^

"The Wildcats opened up a 17-0 lead in the second quarter, but we’ve all seen this movie before.

It’s the same for all horror movies. A group of teenagers goes and thinks they’re gonna have a real good time at an old family fishing cabin in the woods, and that’s what the first 20 minutes of the movie is. Things are going great and everyone is happy. Then the insane asylum has a breakout and the rest of the movie is Chase Winovich murdering dudes with a pick axe."

 

You Only Live Twice

October 2nd, 2018 at 11:17 PM ^

He's not doing the "aw how cute, pat on the head" thing, nor is he being excessively snarky, some weird comments in there though.  Seems like he is hedging more this year.

TrueBlue2003

October 3rd, 2018 at 12:44 AM ^

I thought he was just flat wrong about several things:

"I have said for a while now that depth on the defensive line has wrecked Michigan in November over the last few years."

Only in 2015 did DL depth hurt (after injuries to Glasgow). 

The defense, especially the line, remained absolutely dominant at the end of 2016.  It was QB performance/injuries and OL play that doomed M at the end of 2016 AND that was the issue but to a greater magnitude in 2017.

I also mostly disagreed with this:

"It was not a great day for the Michigan offensive line, who rarely got much of a push and also had trouble giving Patterson time to throw the ball comfortably."

Considering the N'western front seven, the M OL did an unexpectedly good job with pass pro. I completely saw what Brian saw that Patterson had a long time to throw and sort of broke the pocket unnecessarily sometimes.  And the run game was similarly pretty good if you remove the four minute drill and the fact we basically told N'western we were running into the line on every first down in the second half.

Not the best analysis by this guy.

TrueBlue2003

October 3rd, 2018 at 1:58 AM ^

Ummm, no. In 2016, Michigan held a 17-7 lead in the 3rd quarter.  Then Speight threw a pick returned to the M 13 yard line.  The defense allowed a 13 yard TD drive.  They then allowed 3 points for the remainder of regulation (for a total of 10 points allowed the ENTIRE regulation, seven of which came on a 13 yard TD drive). This after allowing, what, 14 points to Iowa?

Anyone concluding it was the defensive line depth that was the issue and not the fact that M offense BASICALLY SCORED A NET THREE POINTS because they had a QB they couldn't trust and OL that couldn't run block in those circumstances does not know what is in front of his own eyes. To expect M's defense to perform better than that would be to expect literal perfection.

In 2017, M jumped out to an early 14 point lead thanks to a blocked punt but promptly gave up two TD drives to knot it up at 14-14 by midway through the second quarter.  Giving up that lead wasn't a late game fade by the defense. In fact, they then clamped down and forced three straight punts to allow M to get the lead back. They only gave up 10 second half points until the last TD with under two minutes left when they arguably were better off allowing that TD when OSU could have just run the clock out.

Last years defense was definitely not nearly as elite as 2016, but they played well enough to win that game and certainly didn't seem to tire out (as they performed about as well in the second half as the first half).  Sometimes you give up scoring drives to good offenses and sometimes those drives happen in the second half. It happens.

TrueBlue2003

October 3rd, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^

I'm also not sure I agree that the D as a whole is deeper than it's ever been (although I admit it's debatable) but the DL is definitely not as deep as it was in 2016, especially not with Solomon hurt.

Remember, in 2016, Gary and Winovich were productive backups to Wormley and Charlton who were both high draft picks.  It's great that Paye and Hutchinson are doing well, but they're not at the level of 2016 Winovich and Gary yet.  Those guys were both good enough in 2016 that they were able to give the starters rests without much if any dropoff.

Mo Hurst was a friggin backup as well, despite being one of the highest graded DL in the country.  Between him, Glasgow, Godin, and Mone, there was more quality depth at DT in 2016 than M has now.

That defense was all-time good and it was very deep on the DL, where depth matters most. It was even deep enough in the secondary that it was able to lose Jeremy Clark and still be all-time and barely miss a beat.

Hold This L

October 2nd, 2018 at 11:46 PM ^

This won’t be popular but Shea has reminded me of o’korn in one area: decision making. O’korn was always holding on to the ball and almost afraid to put it in the air at all. I see that with Shea sometimes. But then he goes and makes an amazing throw and I snap out of it. But still, I do think he is hesitant sometimes like o’korn was. He’s much better at working through his progressions though. With o’korn it was one read and then the play is over. 

CompleteLunacy

October 3rd, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^

I don't see that. 

He was only hesitant against NW, and that's because our receivers weren't getting much separation. He bailed out too early at times (OL was good in pass pro) and had a few bad throws, but otherwise his decision making was fine. 

I think he's been coached to avoid turnovers, so he's not going to force the ball into coverage until the game absolutely dictates it (like the NW game did in the 2nd half, when he completed some nice passes into very tight coverage).  I like not having terrible turnovers. If it means eating a sack and a couple of failed drives - fine. With the defense we have, that should be the strategy. The onus is on the defense not giving up 17 points in 17 minutes of play. Regardless of how good or bad the offense is playing, they should not be giving up that many points that quickly.